COVID-19: The silver lining

cgrab

cgrab

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cgrab
Things that will get better as a result of COVID-19...

People will take better care of themselves and wash their hands more thus avoiding regular flu
People will drive less due to telecommuting which will lessen highway deaths
Telecommuting of all kinds will increase; which will have a net positive on the environment and productivity
Technology will enhance teleconferences to allow more people attend and learn
Companies will move production from China to the USA for pharmaceuticals and hopefully other products
Education costs will drop significantly without having to "attend" a brick and mortar campus and students can "go to school" on line
And hopefully not this but I have to say it...social security may pay out less as victims increase.
 
cgrab said:
Things that will get better as a result of COVID-19...

People will take better care of themselves and wash their hands more thus avoiding regular flu
People will drive less due to telecommuting which will lessen highway deaths
Telecommuting of all kinds will increase; which will have a net positive on the environment and productivity
Technology will enhance teleconferences to allow more people attend and learn
Companies will move production from China to the USA for pharmaceuticals and hopefully other products
Education costs will drop significantly without having to "attend" a brick and mortar campus and students can "go to school" on line
And hopefully not this but I have to say it...social security may pay out less as victims increase.
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Funny, a few of us were discussing that final line item, as we are eligible to collect (but deferring it for now.)
 
People will take better care of themselves and wash their hands more thus avoiding regular flu
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Short term, maybe. Long term, I'd bet against it.

Telecommuting of all kinds will increase; which will have a net positive on the environment and productivity
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Telecommuting doesn't work for factory workers nor lots of other jobs. If those folks can't work, the economy hits the toilet fast. Productivity goes down for all other industries at that point.

Companies will move production from China to the USA for pharmaceuticals and hopefully other products
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If you say so but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Education costs will drop significantly without having to "attend" a brick and mortar campus and students can "go to school" on line
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Costs (to the student) will not drop at all. Profit may increase though.
And hopefully not this but I have to say it...social security may pay out less as victims increase.
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Aren't widows entitled their spouses SSI benefits?
 
You left out that it may be the salvation of social security as the elderly population declines.

NEVER MIND - You got it!
 
I believe it is good to take a nap. Practicing safe spacing :)
 
It amazes me, how poor our hygiene standards were prior to this
 
I hope and pray this is just as vastly over-blown as I think it is. This mass quarantine stuff is seriously bad for the economy. I moved some stocks into municipal bonds and fixed accounts about 6 months ago. I wish I'd moved more.
 
cgrab said:
It sounds like you are objecting to something I didn't say
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Fair enough, let me put it this way. You're saying increased telecommuting will increase productivity. I'm saying telecommuting isn't an option for large portions of the workforce. Factory workers, service industry workers, skilled trades. Telecommuting isn't an option for any of them. And if large numbers of them become unable to work, that will impact the economy enough that lots of people who can telecommute will no longer need to because they will no longer have jobs. Maybe I'm being closed minded but I fail to see how that will somehow lead to increased productivity.
 
wilkersk said:
I hope and pray this is just as vastly over-blown as I think it is. This mass quarantine stuff is seriously bad for the economy. I moved some stocks into municipal bonds and fixed accounts about 6 months ago. I wish I'd moved more.
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I wish it were overblown, but the data we have so far suggests a case mortality rate TEN times higher than seasonal influenza. Especially if you are over 65, you do NOT want to contract this viral disease until there are viable pharmaceuticals or a functional vaccine. But we may not get the choice.
 
chemgeek said:
I wish it were overblown, but the data we have so far suggests a case mortality rate TEN times higher than seasonal influenza. Especially if you are over 65, you do NOT want to contract this viral disease until there are viable pharmaceuticals or a functional vaccine. But we may not get the choice.
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But the denominator is a huge wildcard. how many people might have it who just stay home and get better thinking they have the flu or a cold and don't get tested
 
Denominator. It is all about the denominator. Today, I felt flushed, maybe feverish. Coughed a bit, was it dry? Am I sick, or just a bit overworked since I spent the morning driving an aerator and an over seeder on three acres of lawn. Maybe I should be tested, since I have done six flights on the airlines in the last ten days, and sleep with someone who has done more legs than that. Nope, not gonna pursue a test, because I feel better now, after some vitamins and ibuprofen, and bourbon. One possible minus to the denominator, today, anyway. We shall see what tomorrow brings.
 
Tantalum said:
how many people might have it who just stay home and get better thinking they have the flu or a cold and don't get tested
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Not enough. The answer is not enough.

Indications are people are contagious for at least some portion of the incubation period, i.e. before they have any symptoms, and also for some period of time after the symptoms are gone. Which means those who just feel a little ill and stay home until they get better and then go back to work without ever getting tested could very well infect many others without ever knowing it.
 
It hit home today. The schools will be closed for the next 3 weeks, and if that is not enough they will close for the rest of the year.

My wide is a non-contract teacher so she will not get paid for the time off.

Currently my wife is making home made hand sanitizer by using a little gasoline, a little diesel and an old broken up Styrofoam ice chest.....
 
This is the US trend line based on W.H.O. daily sitreps. I hope the trend does flatten out. It looks kinda scary as of today. I'm still hoping though...

49653344278_2b2096f172_c.jpg
 
Zeldman said:
It hit home today. The schools will be closed for the next 3 weeks, and if that is not enough they will close for the rest of the year.

My wide is a non-contract teacher so she will not get paid for the time off.

Currently my wife is making home made hand sanitizer by using a little gasoline, a little diesel and an old broken up Styrofoam ice chest.....
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I don't think that's hand sanitizer, but I like the way she thinks.

I think in the two weeks we're going to find out 1/2 the population already has it. Hopefully there following two weeks we'll find out it's not that big a deal.

Our kids have spring break next week. The school just cancelled the following week to build an online learning system with the thought that they may not reconvene.

The captain has illuminated the seatbelt sign....
 
Tantalum said:
But the denominator is a huge wildcard. how many people might have it who just stay home and get better thinking they have the flu or a cold and don't get tested
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They're saying it originally hit here in Seattle about six weeks ago. That's about the time my wife got what we thought was a nasty, nasty cold. Bad cough, fever, headache. Lasted about three weeks. Slept in a recliner for about a week because she'd cough continually if she lay down. Went to Urgent Care twice because it just would not go away.

We're think it's quite possible that she had Covid-19. After it hit the news, she contacted the local health folks to see if she could get tested. Since she hadn't been to China, and was no longer showing symptoms, they weren't interested.

I got a touch of *something*, but not as bad as she did.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Sweet...only has cost me $750,000 in lost revenue from canceled events...so far...
 
Jim K said:
I don't think that's hand sanitizer, but I like the way she thinks.

I think in the two weeks we're going to find out 1/2 the population already has it. Hopefully there following two weeks we'll find out it's not that big a deal.

Our kids have spring break next week. The school just cancelled the following week to build an online learning system with the thought that they may not reconvene.

The captain has illuminated the seatbelt sign....
Click to expand...
Most of the colleges in Colorado are going online by the end of March. Should be interesting, considering far too many of the departments have no clue other than posting assignments on Blackboard (which I despise). Our CS dept runs its own server with Moodle. Most of us have done a Skype or Google hangout in the past, so we're not completely ready, but aren't panicking.
 
murphey said:
Most of the colleges in Colorado are going online by the end of March. Should be interesting, considering far too many of the departments have no clue other than posting assignments on Blackboard (which I despise). Our CS dept runs its own server with Moodle. Most of us have done a Skype or Google hangout in the past, so we're not completely ready, but aren't panicking.
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All of the universities in IL are doing the same. Probably too little too late.

Our kids go to a small catholic school, about 150 kids Preschool-8. I have no idea what they're going to do, and I bet they don't either. There's no 'IT person'. Will Skype, etc be able to handle the load of the whole country trying to use it at once? Looks to me like we're basically going to be homeschooling.
 
One more thing...I'm getting lots of mail. I've gotten a COVID-19 update from:
My Bank, my investment house, my dentist, the VA, 5 chain restaurants, 2 rental car companies, the FAA, the airport, and Harbor Freight. So far.
 
cgrab said:
One more thing...I'm getting lots of mail. I've gotten a COVID-19 update from:
My Bank, my investment house, my dentist, the VA, 5 chain restaurants, 2 rental car companies, the FAA, the airport, and Harbor Freight. So far.
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I have a bank account with Ally Bank. Ally is a completely online bank. There are no branches that I am aware of. There is no way to actually visit, or see somebody in-person. And yet I still got an email from them telling how they were taking precautions, etc. Huh?
 
murphey said:
Most of the colleges in Colorado are going online by the end of March. Should be interesting, considering far too many of the departments have no clue other than posting assignments on Blackboard (which I despise). Our CS dept runs its own server with Moodle. Most of us have done a Skype or Google hangout in the past, so we're not completely ready, but aren't panicking.
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They extended spring break (this week) (and the end of the semester) for another week and we are doing classes online the week after. That's easy enough, but the lab's are a whole 'nuther animal.

(We have switched from Blackboard (gag me with a spoon) to Canvas. At least I knew how to do things like online exams with Blackboard. Oh, well, I'll figure it out.)
 
the first case was confirmed here in Springfield MO yesterday. A girl who'd been on a ski trip in Austria. our mayor and governor did a really nice job last night at the press conference. They were stabilizing instead of destabilizing like the feds have been.
 
wilkersk said:
This is the US trend line based on W.H.O. daily sitreps. I hope the trend does flatten out. It looks kinda scary as of today. I'm still hoping though...

49653344278_2b2096f172_c.jpg
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US added almost 300 more cases today, so we're up over 1200 now. And that's the ones that have been CONFIRMED. Some news outlets are reporting that certain states might have well over 100,000 people by THEMSELVES that are infected and just don't know it. WHO can't possibly keep track of all of these cases individually anymore.
 
We're doomed!

DOOMED, I SAY!

It will get worse before it gets better... But, I remain confident that the most competent people in this country, and around the world are working on solutions.

It will affect us all directly or indirectly, physically or financially.

Be prepared. But live your life.

fly to the scene of the incident, or be recovered at the scene of the tragedy
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Not enough. The answer is not enough.

Indications are people are contagious for at least some portion of the incubation period, i.e. before they have any symptoms, and also for some period of time after the symptoms are gone. Which means those who just feel a little ill and stay home until they get better and then go back to work without ever getting tested could very well infect many others without ever knowing it.
Click to expand...
Which honestly partially why the current efforts are probably not going to help much.. the cases we're seeing now were contracted 1-3 weeks ago. Big efforts like working from home, avoiding social contact, no big gatherings, etc., might slightly slow the spread at this point, but once it's "in the community" that's basically it. And other initiatives, like banning travel from Europe for non US Citizens, is, at this point, completely useless. The well (so to speak) is already poisoned. Banning travel for some people just creates more mass panic and financial losses

You really have two options..
(1) life as usual and let it play out. Is the financial cost really worth it at this point to put everything into standby mode while thousands still get it? People focus on the mortality rate, etc., and it's contagious.. but ultimately, just looking at the figures, you are still more likely to die many many other ways. The media has led people to believe this is some zombie movie stuff. The UK is largely going about life as usual
-or-
(2) lock everyone at home for 30 days and actually do a proper global quarantine lock down. For those who must go out (food, health, emergency services) mandate strict health guidelines, ones that go beyond just (wash your hands, don't touch your face, and stock up on toilet paper). Those who have it either get better or die, and those who don't have it won't get it

But you can't really vacillate between the two.
 

Responses inline in red

People will take better care of themselves and wash their hands more thus avoiding regular flu false
People will drive less due to telecommuting which will lessen highway deaths true
Telecommuting of all kinds will increase; which will have a net positive on the environment true and productivity false
Technology will enhance teleconferences to allow more people attend and learn true
Companies will move production from China to the USA for pharmaceuticals and hopefully other products doubt it
Education costs will drop significantly false without having to "attend" a brick and mortar campus and students can "go to school" on line fraud will go up, degrees will be worth less. Not worthless, just worth less.

It’s too easy to fake remote attendance. I’ve already had two cases in the last two years of employees that had someone else do the interview to get the job. When you’re hiring a lot it’s easy to get away with. In one case, someone else was actually doing the work for them after hours as well, but they wanted to work remotely and refused to do work in the office. Eventually we had to institute “paired programming” to prove they weren’t doing the job. this will get worse.
 
NCAA tournament, Masters, NBA, MLB...basically every sporting event is either postponed or cancelled.
S&F still on, the take away is that pilots are fearless! ;-)
 
Tantalum said:
Which honestly partially why the current efforts are probably not going to help much.. the cases we're seeing now were contracted 1-3 weeks ago. Big efforts like working from home, avoiding social contact, no big gatherings, etc., might slightly slow the spread at this point, but once it's "in the community" that's basically it. And other initiatives, like banning travel from Europe for non US Citizens, is, at this point, completely useless. The well (so to speak) is already poisoned. Banning travel for some people just creates more mass panic and financial losses
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I had a similar view until I read an interesting post online. It pointed out that social distancing isn't about preventing mass spread of COVID, but simply slowing the spread enough so that the health care system isn't overwhelmed all at once. A conservative estimate is that perhaps 30% of Americans will be infected, and perhaps 5-10% of those will need hospitalization. That's still several million more people than we have room for in hospitals if all those cases were to appear at once. On the other hand, if you can spread that spike out across several months then you have a fighting chance of keeping up with patient loads. So I'm willing to give social distancing the benefit of the doubt at this point.
 
None of what's going on is going matter. Were we the Chinese and could force everyone to stay home, we could probably beat this. But folks are going to go out. They're going to interact with other folks. This is going spread. Maybe we'll slow it down a touch so that the warm weather can do it's thing, if warm sunny weather kills this thing. Nothing to say it does, though heat and sunshine tend to do a number on other Coronaviruses.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
I had a similar view until I read an interesting post online. It pointed out that social distancing isn't about preventing mass spread of COVID, but simply slowing the spread enough so that the health care system isn't overwhelmed all at once. A conservative estimate is that perhaps 30% of Americans will be infected, and perhaps 5-10% of those will need hospitalization. That's still several million more people than we have room for in hospitals if all those cases were to appear at once. On the other hand, if you can spread that spike out across several months then you have a fighting chance of keeping up with patient loads. So I'm willing to give social distancing the benefit of the doubt at this point.
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Also to give them time to respond to the higher demand for medications and medical equipment. Think factories and deliveries. Also to improve treatment regimens, including the eventual arrive of a vaccine.
 
Companies will value remote work more.
 
Tantalum said:
The media has led people to believe this is some zombie movie stuff. The UK is largely going about life as usual
-
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The media gives people what they want. Nothing more, nothing less. There are sources of information available for any who want facts without sensationalism. Blaming the media for scaring people is like blaming McDonalds for obesity.
 
Shawn said:
Sweet...only has cost me $750,000 in lost revenue from canceled events...so far...
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I am working on a business deal, the biggest of my life, that will ensure my wife lives comfortably for the rest of her life, and this panic/scare may cost me that. Unbelievable.
 
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