Chinese Spy Balloon Flying Over the U.S.

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Curiouser and curiouser:

The US sent up U-2 spy planes to track the balloon’s progress, according to US officials.

One pilot took a selfie in the cockpit that shows both the pilot and the surveillance balloon itself, these officials said – an image that has already gained legendary status in both NORAD and the Pentagon.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/politics/chinese-spy-balloon-timeline-lack-urgent-action/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/politics/chinese-spy-balloon-timeline-lack-urgent-action/index.html
 
Piperonca said:
One pilot took a selfie in the cockpit that shows both the pilot and the surveillance balloon itself, these officials said – an image that has already gained legendary status in both NORAD and the Pentagon.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/politics/chinese-spy-balloon-timeline-lack-urgent-action/index.html
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The Chinese want the balloon back. Checky or hutzpah - take your pick.
 
WDD said:
The Chinese want the balloon back. Checky or hutzpah - take your pick.
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Maintaining a continuous narrative. They claim the balloon was civilian, and under international law, such vehicles are supposed to be returned. Hence all the airliners hijacked to Cuba were released to return to the US, etc.

Doesn't matter if we come across a Cray-powered signal analyzer or a camera with a 3000x lens in the wreckage, they'll just claim we planted it or were "holding it for a friend" :).

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
Maintaining a continuous narrative. They claim the balloon was civilian, and under international law, such vehicles are supposed to be returned. Hence all the airliners hijacked to Cuba were released to return to the US, etc.

Doesn't matter if we come across a Cray-powered signal analyzer or a camera with a 3000x lens in the wreckage, they'll just claim we planted it or were "holding it for a friend" :).

Ron Wanttaja
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After we thoroughly analyze ever transistor and circuit onboard that balloon, I don't have any issue with putting all the pieces into a cardboard box and sending it back to China. They did the same thing with our EP3E. Unfortunately, their intelligence windfall from the EP3E was much greater than what we probably learned from the balloon.
 
Witmo said:
After we thoroughly analyze ever transistor and circuit onboard that balloon, I don't have any issue with putting all the pieces into a cardboard box and sending it back to China.
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We will likely find that it's all copied from US designs anyway.

A buddy of mine saw a Chinese copy of an automotive ignition module he designed for his company. The Chinese had copied it right down to the cut PWB trace and jumper wire that corrected a mistake; they didn't even reroute the PWB.

We won't reap any technical windfall from inspecting their hardware, but we might know exactly what they were doing (if we don't already).
 
Love all the deniers and cancel culturists- of course China is innocent and meant no harm!

“A senior State Department official said that the surveillance balloon, which is technically considered an airship given its ability to maneuver, was capable of gathering signals intelligence by intercepting communications and could geolocate those signals to their origin point. “

“
A source familiar with the classified briefing provided to members of Congress on Thursday confirmed to FOX that the Chinese spy balloon had Western-made parts with English writing. The news was first reported by Bloomberg.”

Yup. Nothing to see here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Witmo said:
After we thoroughly analyze ever transistor and circuit onboard that balloon, I don't have any issue with putting all the pieces into a cardboard box and sending it back to China. They did the same thing with our EP3E. Unfortunately, their intelligence windfall from the EP3E was much greater than what we probably learned from the balloon.
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I'd give it back at a videoed presser. Drag out the HF spy antenna so the cameras can see it. Put it in a box labeled "HF Spy Antenna" and hand it to them. Drag out the acre or so of envelope material. Put it in a box labeled "Spy Balloon Envelope" and hand it to them. Crush the aluminum frame into a 1'x1'x1' cube and put a label on it "Spy balloon frame" and hand it back. Lather, rinse, repeat for about an hour of fun handing it back one piece at a time.
 
kyleb said:
I'd give it back at a videoed presser. Drag out the HF spy antenna so the cameras can see it. Put it in a box labeled "HF Spy Antenna" and hand it to them. Drag out the acre or so of envelope material. Put it in a box labeled "Spy Balloon Envelope" and hand it to them. Crush the aluminum frame into a 1'x1'x1' cube and put a label on it "Spy balloon frame" and hand it back. Lather, rinse, repeat for about an hour of fun handing it back one piece at a time.
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And insist on a detailed receipt!
;)
 
Half Fast said:
We will likely find that it's all copied from US designs anyway.

A buddy of mine saw a Chinese copy of an automotive ignition module he designed for his company. The Chinese had copied it right down to the cut PWB trace and jumper wire that corrected a mistake; they didn't even reroute the PWB.

We won't reap any technical windfall from inspecting their hardware, but we might know exactly what they were doing (if we don't already).
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That was true until recently. Look at any hard-science journal and see how many Chinese names and institutions are in each issue. Here's an example taken just now- this is a journal published by the AMERICAN Chemical Society.

At least in chemistry, as a nation, we've outsourced our research and will eventually pay dearly.

upload_2023-2-9_17-37-1.png
 
Llk said:
Love all the deniers and cancel culturists- of course China is innocent and meant no harm!
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No one in this thread expressed such a view. The most "cancel culture", whatever that is any more, posting merely said there isn't enough evidence to demonstrate what China was doing at that time.

Llk said:
“A senior State Department official said that the surveillance balloon, which is technically considered an airship given its ability to maneuver, was capable of gathering signals intelligence by intercepting communications and could geolocate those signals to their origin point. “

“
A source familiar with the classified briefing provided to members of Congress on Thursday confirmed to FOX that the Chinese spy balloon had Western-made parts with English writing. The news was first reported by Bloomberg.”

Yup. Nothing to see here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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And now we have the evidence.
 
kyleb said:
I'd give it back at a videoed presser. Drag out the HF spy antenna so the cameras can see it. Put it in a box labeled "HF Spy Antenna" and hand it to them. Drag out the acre or so of envelope material. Put it in a box labeled "Spy Balloon Envelope" and hand it to them. Crush the aluminum frame into a 1'x1'x1' cube and put a label on it "Spy balloon frame" and hand it back. Lather, rinse, repeat for about an hour of fun handing it back one piece at a time.
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Addendum: For any box that contains electronics, add a hidden tracking device so we can see where they take it. Plus a camera and a device to record and transmit signals. And whatever else we can hide in it.
 
Witmo said:
After we thoroughly analyze ever transistor and circuit onboard that balloon, I don't have any issue with putting all the pieces into a cardboard box and sending it back to China.
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And examine the antennas. Those'll best give us an idea of what frequency bands they were going after, and give us an idea of which particular systems they were trying to collect on.

There are a couple of good techniques for doing geolocation from satellites, but don't think they'd work from a slow vehicle like a balloon. *Might* have been working in conjunction with orbital or terrestrial assets.

I wonder if the center-CONUS area was the one they were trying to target. Some good deep stuff going on, but little of it would be of direct use by China in the event of an attempted invasion of Taiwan. They know already knew where the missile sites were down to feet; would have to think the C&C links are well hardened. Would have thought going down the West coast might gain them more insight into Navy deployments, etc.

And, again, with all the froo-rah about the balloons, whatever degree of use they had for China has to be gone, now.

kyleb said:
I'd give it back at a videoed presser. Drag out the HF spy antenna so the cameras can see it. Put it in a box labeled "HF Spy Antenna" and hand it to them. Drag out the acre or so of envelope material. Put it in a box labeled "Spy Balloon Envelope" and hand it to them. Crush the aluminum frame into a 1'x1'x1' cube and put a label on it "Spy balloon frame" and hand it back. Lather, rinse, repeat for about an hour of fun handing it back one piece at a time.
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It fell from 60,000 and forgot to pull the cord...put it in a matchbox and send it home to Mao.

Ron "Blood upon the envelope" Wanttaja
 
Cap'n Jack said:
merely said there isn't enough evidence to demonstrate what China was doing at that time.
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+1
I didn’t see anyone doubt the possibility of there being serious capabilities on the balloon (I certainly didn’t). What’s still unreported, to my knowledge, is what WE did to mitigate the risk, via jamming, spoofing, and/or being quiet or other strategies. I’m sensing we’re not as dumb a country as some people seem or want to believe.

Even if we didn’t know about this balloon or others that passed over several years ago, I suspect we guard our relevant info all the time at a level higher than people generally understand, if only to guard against satellites collecting it.
 
We should be concerned now that they have 6th Gen balloon tech and we don't. Thankfully, it's "The pilot not the plane" and our lowly outdated 5th gen fighters can take it down :)

If we could just jam it in a way where all they hear is random "meows".
 
Llewtrah381 said:
+1
I didn’t see anyone doubt the possibility of there being serious capabilities on the balloon (I certainly didn’t). What’s still unreported, to my knowledge, is what WE did to mitigate the risk, via jamming, spoofing, and/or being quiet or other strategies. I’m sensing we’re not as dumb a country as some people seem or want to believe.
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To the people who think the public has a right to know all of what the US did to identify and mitigate the risks: It would be monumentally stupid to reveal classified capabilities or vulnerabilities.

The above is not directed at anyone specifically, but if the shoe fits...
 
Bob Noel said:
To the people who think the public has a right to know all of what the US did to identify and mitigate the risks: It would be monumentally stupid to reveal classified capabilities or vulnerabilities.

The above is not directed at anyone specifically, but if the shoe fits...
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The people do not necessarily need to know everything that might compromise our safety and national security, but to think we have everything under control brings memories of Wiley Coyote..:)
 
Sinistar said:
We should be concerned now that they have 6th Gen balloon tech and we don't. Thankfully, it's "The pilot not the plane" and our lowly outdated 5th gen fighters can take it down :)

If we could just jam it in a way where all they hear is random "meows".
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Do you really think we don’t have 6th gen Balloons? Our intelligence agencies have them stored at Aera 51. Code name Chocolate-Chocolate Chip.
 
Saw this yesterday - for those who think shooting down something we knew little about was the only option…

4D17A6FE-45DA-4F7D-82ED-B8651F6FC293.jpeg
 
Doug Reid said:
The people do not necessarily need to know everything that might compromise our safety and national security, but to think we have everything under control brings memories of Wiley Coyote..:)
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Good point. Shooting down a balloon with a 2,000 lb payload over our land conjured up exactly that…

ACA7115D-71B0-4570-BF92-DC56A6EF7F23.jpeg
 
Llewtrah381 said:
Saw this yesterday - for those who think shooting down something we knew little about was the only option…
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I mean, I do a LOT of flying for aerial photography. There are vast, vast swaths of land out there with nobody around. If they could generally figure out where to shoot the thing down in the waters, I think if they were READY to shoot it down, they could have done so over a sparsely populated area as well, and that would send a stronger message in the minds of some.

I think the bigger issue is the readiness, and that's the real criticism. Sure, some of the reds are dumb, but so are some of the blues, and that's not why they're making whatever argument they are making.

Of course, dropping it in the water might be a tad(?) softer, but then you have salt water contamination and ocean currents to deal with. Personally, I wish they'd dropped it sooner over fields.
 
Llewtrah381 said:
Saw this yesterday - for those who think shooting down something we knew little about was the only option…

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Well, it would be a reason to wait for the skeeter to fly to a location with less probability of collateral damage before swatting it. But that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be swatted.
 
RyanShort1 said:
I mean, I do a LOT of flying for aerial photography. There are vast, vast swaths of land out there with nobody around. If they could generally figure out where to shoot the thing down in the waters, I think if they were READY to shoot it down, they could have done so over a sparsely populated area as well, and that would send a stronger message in the minds of some.

I think the bigger issue is the readiness, and that's the real criticism. Sure, some of the reds are dumb, but so are some of the blues, and that's not why they're making whatever argument they are making.

Of course, dropping it in the water might be a tad(?) softer, but then you have salt water contamination and ocean currents to deal with. Personally, I wish they'd dropped it sooner over fields.
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The problem might be how far a missile that misses the balloon could fly from 60,000 feet. That’s a VERY large footprint, much bigger than where a popped ballon would drop.
 
Half Fast said:
Well, it would be a reason to wait for the skeeter to fly to a location with less probability of collateral damage before swatting it. But that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be swatted.
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It was, wasn’t it? Just not when some armchair warriors thought it should be, with no good intel.
 
Half Fast said:
The problem might be how far a missile that misses the balloon could fly from 60,000 feet. That’s a VERY large footprint, much bigger than where a popped ballon would drop.
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I suspect it has more to do with preparedness and probably also seeing if they could feed bad information to it and intercept it. Sorta like the US telling Midway to send the message about water to see if the Japanese intercepted the message.
 
TCABM said:
Delayed use of violence is still use of violence. Your trope says “without use of violence.”
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In this case, it sounds like violence at the right place and time was the best option. I just don’t think the emotional reaction of people and the news media should be executing our defense strategy
 
Hmmm....just saw this today....surface to FL600 UFN.

tfr.png
 
Llewtrah381 said:
In this case, it sounds like violence at the right place and time was the best option. I just don’t think the emotional reaction of people and the news media should be executing our defense strategy
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Can you prove the tail wagged the dog? I’m guessing it did to a degree, but only because some folks got lucky with a visual sighting that went viral on the internet.

At the point it became public knowledge, we were already collecting against it. The only question that remained to be answered was what to do when we were done. There’s only a few real options…1) continue collecting against it, even if that just meant following it around to see where it ended up at; 2)see if anyone else we wanted to know about it wanted to do anything about it; 3) Quietly do what we publicly did; or 4) do nothing.

Those are the COAs I’d be presenting, though not in that order.
 
TCABM said:
Can you prove the tail wagged the dog? I’m guessing it did to a degree, but only because some folks got lucky with a visual sighting that went viral on the internet.

At the point it became public knowledge, we were already collecting against it.
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Anyone seen a timeline? My concern is whether the civilian-taken photo was the first knowledge the Government had that it was there. I know they've got the track of the thing, but that could easily be generated based on post-event processing of ordinary data.

Flew an Air Force missile-warning satellite back in my younger days. If we missed a launch, we could re-run the data tapes to try figure out why, change thresholds, etc. That's what I'm worried about in this case, whether the Air Force *had* been tracking it prior to civilian detection, or whether they found it in re-running stored data.

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
That's what I'm worried about in this case, whether the Air Force *had* been tracking it prior to civilian detection, or whether they found it in re-running stored data.
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There have been various timelines given in other sites, but the summary of those is after one of these balloons had crashed near Hawaii several months ago the military went back over the "tapes" and found multiple balloon flights to include the ones over the US several years ago. They then started looking for new balloon flights and found this particular one off the Aleutians and were tracking it when someone saw it in Montana. Supposedly the current move is to accurately see how many flights there have been and where they have been flying which is up to 5 of the continents and counting. Be interesting once they recover the payload from this balloon.
 
Narwahl, the wording of that TFR looks like the TFR for the recent balloon shoot-down in South Carolina. “Ntl defense airspace” and “all aircraft which are already airborne … must exit the area using the most expeditious route”. Only national security aircraft and emergency/law enforcement are allowed. All that is just like the South Carolina balloon shoot-down TFR.

The main difference that I noticed is there’s no end to this TFR: “2302101745-PERM.” Another difference, it gives two phone numbers, one for Canada, since the TFR is really close to the border.

I wouldn’t be surprised by another shoot-down.

I hope somebody in Deadhorse AK gets photos.

Narwhal said:
Hmmm....just saw this today....surface to FL600 UFN.

View attachment 114812
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