Not quite. More than physical stoppages affect refinery output. One of the reasons the domestic gasoline price was elevated in the last 6-8 months was due to a higher than expected demand for domestic heating fuels and jet fuels during that same time frame. Given there is only a certain amount of refining capability in country there was an increase in refining these fuels that put the gasoline refining at a lower rate. Hence affecting the gasoline prices. Whether you don’t want to believe the other points I bring up that’s fine too. The data is out there.
Yes, the data is out there. I believe you are posting in good faith, but I feel your data sources (whatever they are, as you don't cite them) are flawed.
I agree about increased demand for jet fuel, but not heating oil.
This link shows the predicted temperatures for the USA for this winter:
https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2...87HC1K3PG-LKT0gq_1Q0NPr9CU_l3pKNzsw6txnlOdgU4
By and large, the predictions have held up. The winter has been warmer for most of the united states, so there is a reduced need for heating oil. The drought conditions have been accurately predicted in the areas I've heard about. We've hit 80 degrees here last week- both of these tie into temperature and further support the prediction.
Jet fuel prices have only risen through increased demand as the pandemic ends. Anecdotally, I've already reached UAL gold status for next year from increased travel this year. As for gasoline prices, people are simply driving more as the pandemic ends.
Furthermore, jet fuel, kerosene, heating oil are straight distillates, although some is made from larger, heavier, parts of crude oil. Gasoline is made from a straight distillate, but also made from breaking down other parts of crude oil. This means that gasoline and jet fuel go through different parts of the refinery after distillation, so "increasing jet fuel" doesn't "decrease gasoline"
This reference alludes to the cracking done to the larger (heavier) molecules in crude oil to make "lighter products". I include this as it isn't biased:
https://www.world-petroleum.org/edu/223-how-is-crude-oil-turned-into-finished-products-
Here's a more detailed reference:
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-a...e-oil-into-products-like-gasoline-diesel.html
Also, there are refineries elsewhere in the world, with less need to make heating oil. Yet gasoline prices at those places are also increasing similarly to our price increases.
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...-highs-governments-look-solutions-2022-03-10/
I guess I missed this part as I was replying to your posts. But if you think any administration that is publicly against oil and gas exploration will bring lower fuel costs you’ll find history to be against you. And one can track those subsequent price increases with a calendar.
I never thought such a thing. I merely questioned the existence of mysterious rules that are so secret you need to be in some sort of contract with some shadowy authority to know what they are.
The rise in prices for gasoline, jet fuel, and crude oil need no more explanation other then the free market at work. There is increased demand as people return to work and travel more. A war started, and caused speculation in the oil markets, as one of the larger producers of crude in involved in said war. As far as I know, countries are still buying that crude oil (our ban won't affect anything- we buy less than 1% of our imports from Russia).