Crash in Arizona (Marana, Feb 19, 2025)

Warmi said:
Well, makes sense to me except perhaps your reference to “only a third “ ….. 30% of all midairs occur at a location we tend to be maybe 3% of time ..if we were to assume a typical cross country flight, that is.
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Yes, and it's difficult to make such assumptions. We all assume that every flies like WE do...but in my case, my typical flight is 50% sightseeing, 50% touch and goes at the home drome.

The latest FAA survey that I have (2021) says that, roughly, about 10% of GA hours and flown for instruction. Some of that will be pattern work.

I'm using the NTSB's definition of where the accident occurs, but over 1/3rd of the accidents are define as happening in "Maneuvering flight." These, to some extent, probably include student flight in standard practice areas. I sometimes include notes on cases of interest. For those that occurred in maneuvering flight, these are some of my notes...

LAX08LA254A Collided with own tow plane
LAX08FA265A 5 miles from airport Cirrus talking to center, nothing from Cessna
ERA09FA080A 18 miles from airport
WPR09FA248A Five miles south of airport
CEN10FA011A 75 miles out
CEN10LA099A No airport mentioned powered parachutes
WPR10LA294A glider competition
CEN10LA459A soaring competition
ERA11FA101A aircraft v helicopter 1/2 mile from airport aircraft not in traffic pattern.
CEN11LA296A While spraying
ANC11FA071A Two floatplanes at a lake
CEN11LA573A 15 miles from airport
ERA11FA468A Yak in the aerobatic box
ANC11FA091A 9 miles north
CEN12FA312A Actively spraying
WPR12LA250A gliders
CEN12LA553A Competition
WPR13LA004A 12 miles east of field. Student under the hood
WPR13FA254A 3 miles west of airport
WPR13LA270A Reno air races
WPR14FA174A Associated, in contact with each other
ERA14FA459A 2 miles from airport radar tracked the aircraft
WPR16LA016A five miles from airport Instruction in progress
WPR16FA065A in LA special flight corridor
WPR17LA209A Race
WPR18LA144A near airport
WPR18LA267A Race
CEN19MA141A 8 miles from ketchikan
CEN20FA012A Deer netting
WPR21LA040A gliders

Personally, I am kind of surprised to see how many are happening away from airports.

The main point I wanted to hit was regarding the "threat" posed by NORDO aircraft. During the 2008-2021 time period, midairs accounted for only 0.6% of all accidents. Midairs involving NORDO aircraft are 0.04% of the total accidents. Yes, it's scary when a NORDO airplane pops up on you, but they're hardly a major driver in midairs.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Albany Tom said:
It does seem weird...but Ron's statistical skills and dedication to it are way better than mine, so I trust the results.
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I do appreciate the comments and pushback from folks. One recent example kept me from making a real embarrassing mistake in a magazine article.

I did dump a simplified version of my Excel spreadsheet into a Zip file, for those who want to look at the data themselves. Most of the columns except the "Ron's Notes" one are from the NTSB reports. The one with a TRUE/FALSE value are from a manual examination of the accident information.


Ron Wanttaja
 
NORDO fliers are the Jasper Philipsen's of aviation ;)
#iykyk
 
Jim K said:
Guessing there's a lot of formation incidents in the "maneuvering" category skewing the results?
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At one point in the past for my homebuilt accident database, a fairly large portion of the midairs involving homebuilts were associated with formation work. Don't remember the exact number, but think it about a third. It's one of the things that make this analysis fun....

For my 2008-2021 study (which included all aircraft types) fifteen of the 144 midairs involved formation work.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Hengelo said:
NORDO fliers are the Jasper Philipsen's of aviation ;)
#iykyk
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I was thinking more Leeroy Jenkins.

Back in my no-radio days, I told folks who complained that, "I'm the NORDO your instructor warned you about...."

Personally, I'd love it if instructors make their students occasionally take their headsets off when operating from non-towered airports. Let the instructor keep theirs on and listen for traffic and make the standard calls. Make the student a biiiiit more motivated to find other airplanes....

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
Make the student a biiiiit more motivated to find other airplanes....
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Which is great if you can find it in time without becoming too distracted and mis-handling your own aircraft.

Everyone flies the pattern in their own way. Some people fly a pattern wide enough that it could count as cross-county time if there wasn't a requirement for a landing at a different airport. Others keep it tight with just two 180 turns, no crosswind or base legs. And everyone else is somewhere in-between, which makes it even harder to spot them, especially in a cluttered background.
That's why we should use every tool that we have available to keep track of the aircraft in the pattern.
Just because bold pilots were flying in IMC without gyros 100 years ago doesn't mean we have to do it today.

On the topic of the NORDO Cub, we've had people offer them a free radio. Still refused to talk.
They used the antenna excuse, which might be a thing if you're trying to talk to a center 50 miles away, but won't be an issue 2 miles away in the pattern.
They used the "we don't have a shielded ignition system" excuse. Most modern squelch systems can handle that, and there would still be a safety improvement even if they did transmit in the blind, without listening.
It's ok if you take yourself out through your own stubborn stupidity, but it's not ok to take someone else with you.

None of what I wrote is applicable to this accident. But we should be using every tool that is available to make a congested part of the sky safer.
All my close calls have been in the pattern. I was surprised a couple times by aircraft being close to me en-route, but they were never close enough to raise my heart rate.
 
I have 1600+ hours in the Lancair model involved. When I trained in mine many years ago, the Lancair instructor taught me to use a wider and higher pattern than most traffic would use. In his words, one needs to fly it like a jet, by the numbers. He taught to enter the pattern at 140 kts, drop gear midfield downwind at 120 kts, turn base at 110 kts, turn final at 100 kts, cross numbers at 90 kts. Very specific speeds. He said the time you get slow is the time it will bite you.
As appears to be the case in this incident, other traffic of different pattern speed was in conflict with the speeds listed above. What can be done to mitigate that? I'm reading he went around once and was going around a second time. Osh has the warbird arrival to separate different speed aircraft; we don't have a separate pattern at single runway fields. Frequently, if spacing allows, I will try to coordinate a straight in between repetitive pattern traffic. Some shun that technique; I see it as beneficial in many cases.
 
AV8R_87 said:
On the topic of the NORDO Cub, we've had people offer them a free radio. Still refused to talk.
They used the antenna excuse, which might be a thing if you're trying to talk to a center 50 miles away, but won't be an issue 2 miles away in the pattern.
They used the "we don't have a shielded ignition system" excuse. Most modern squelch systems can handle that, and there would still be a safety improvement even if they did transmit in the blind, without listening.
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Um, I've USED those handhelds in Cubs with and without antennas and all of those excuses ARE valid. I've transmitted from 1 mile away and people claimed they didn't hear it. Mind you, I kept trying, but some old guys might feel like it's a useless effort. I almost got run over by a Bonanza down in Kerrville about a decade ago flying the 5C1 Cub. The 150 ahead of us heard our transmissions and we were hearing his, but the Bo driver was apparently (or he just wasn't listening) at an angle where allegedly he couldn't hear anything we said.
It's ok if you take yourself out through your own stubborn stupidity, but it's not ok to take someone else with you.
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Go tell that to the buzzards and they will just stare at you. Cubs have the same rights as buzzards if they are in the right airspace and following established procedures.
 
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wanttaja said:
Yes, and it's difficult to make such assumptions. We all assume that every flies like WE do...but in my case, my typical flight is 50% sightseeing, 50% touch and goes at the home drome.

The latest FAA survey that I have (2021) says that, roughly, about 10% of GA hours and flown for instruction. Some of that will be pattern work.

I'm using the NTSB's definition of where the accident occurs, but over 1/3rd of the accidents are define as happening in "Maneuvering flight." These, to some extent, probably include student flight in standard practice areas. I sometimes include notes on cases of interest. For those that occurred in maneuvering flight, these are some of my notes...

LAX08LA254A Collided with own tow plane
LAX08FA265A 5 miles from airport Cirrus talking to center, nothing from Cessna
ERA09FA080A 18 miles from airport
WPR09FA248A Five miles south of airport
CEN10FA011A 75 miles out
CEN10LA099A No airport mentioned powered parachutes
WPR10LA294A glider competition
CEN10LA459A soaring competition
ERA11FA101A aircraft v helicopter 1/2 mile from airport aircraft not in traffic pattern.
CEN11LA296A While spraying
ANC11FA071A Two floatplanes at a lake
CEN11LA573A 15 miles from airport
ERA11FA468A Yak in the aerobatic box
ANC11FA091A 9 miles north
CEN12FA312A Actively spraying
WPR12LA250A gliders
CEN12LA553A Competition
WPR13LA004A 12 miles east of field. Student under the hood
WPR13FA254A 3 miles west of airport
WPR13LA270A Reno air races
WPR14FA174A Associated, in contact with each other
ERA14FA459A 2 miles from airport radar tracked the aircraft
WPR16LA016A five miles from airport Instruction in progress
WPR16FA065A in LA special flight corridor
WPR17LA209A Race
WPR18LA144A near airport
WPR18LA267A Race
CEN19MA141A 8 miles from ketchikan
CEN20FA012A Deer netting
WPR21LA040A gliders

Personally, I am kind of surprised to see how many are happening away from airports.

The main point I wanted to hit was regarding the "threat" posed by NORDO aircraft. During the 2008-2021 time period, midairs accounted for only 0.6% of all accidents. Midairs involving NORDO aircraft are 0.04% of the total accidents. Yes, it's scary when a NORDO airplane pops up on you, but they're hardly a major driver in midairs.

Ron Wanttaja
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"Personally, I am kind of surprised to see how many are happening away from airports."

Well, :cool: that's a matter of definition.

First, I want to thank you for printing this list of investigations. And, I know you are using the NTSB "definition", not your own. And I know that I rub people the wrong way because my interest in this issue is far simpler than the reports' creators. (I want to enjoy life, which requires not dying or hurting others.)

But, as I drank my coffee and ate some two-day old pizza this morning, I started pulling up those report numbers. I'm to #11 and by my (completely unofficial definitions) 7 occurred at an "airport or equivalent" (ie: two planes on the same lake, two powered parachutes in the same field, two cropdusters landing and taking off at the same field). One was in a designated "concentrated training area", two were during multi-aircraft competitions, one was a formation error.

Leaving zero if you mean where other traffic is not expected . . . I mean, maybe all of the next 19 were "enroute", I'll check later. But . . ..
 
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wanttaja said:
I was thinking more Leeroy Jenkins.

Back in my no-radio days, I told folks who complained that, "I'm the NORDO your instructor warned you about...."

Personally, I'd love it if instructors make their students occasionally take their headsets off when operating from non-towered airports. Let the instructor keep theirs on and listen for traffic and make the standard calls. Make the student a biiiiit more motivated to find other airplanes....

Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...
In my highly biased opinion, the best way to start out flying lessons is from the rear seat of a Cub, wearing a headset only hooked up to the intercom, behind a CFI who is physically large enough to block all possible view of the instrument panel and much of the forward windscreen.

After spending a few months taxiing Cubs and Champs around the field and helping service them.

It actually teaches. Wind direction matters, control input matters, being smooth matters. You have to move your head and upper body around, use your eyes and your feet . . . be proactive, anticipate. Fly the airplane by feel and visual reference, rather than just make inputs based on gauge readings.

My $0.02 for what it's worth.
 
FORANE said:
I have 1600+ hours in the Lancair model involved. When I trained in mine many years ago, the Lancair instructor taught me to use a wider and higher pattern than most traffic would use. In his words, one needs to fly it like a jet, by the numbers. He taught to enter the pattern at 140 kts, drop gear midfield downwind at 120 kts, turn base at 110 kts, turn final at 100 kts, cross numbers at 90 kts. Very specific speeds. He said the time you get slow is the time it will bite you.
As appears to be the case in this incident, other traffic of different pattern speed was in conflict with the speeds listed above. What can be done to mitigate that? I'm reading he went around once and was going around a second time. Osh has the warbird arrival to separate different speed aircraft; we don't have a separate pattern at single runway fields. Frequently, if spacing allows, I will try to coordinate a straight in between repetitive pattern traffic. Some shun that technique; I see it as beneficial in many cases.
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It's a real problem for fast movers; we lost a Lancair in the pattern at Osh probably for this same reason. We have to keep our speed up and not crank it around. (mine is a IV) Totally different wing than a hershey bar or a high wing Cessna. My speeds are 10 to 20kts faster than yours. Same for the CJ I fly.
Having said that, I feel like the onus is on us to work around the students, the slower aircraft. Several times I have pulled out of the pattern or not entered it, just circled a mile or two away til the cluster dissipates.
 
wanttaja said:
I do appreciate the comments and pushback from folks. One recent example kept me from making a real embarrassing mistake in a magazine article.
Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...

I need to stop right here and say a few things about this.
Ron, you are an exemplary scientist with your research and presentation of data on POA....for many years - and I greatly appreciate your work.
I say 'exemplary' especially because; you track down the best data available, you interpret it as well as possible given the info available, you point out weaknesses in interpretation (for example we often don't know Total Hours flown, as that is not recorded in most cases), if you know about an error -including your own- you are going to tell us, you recognize that new data or interpretations may change as new information becomes available. (science is constantly in flux)

I think the last part ^^ about how science works was widely misunderstood by the public in the recent worldwide health event, btw.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Um, I've USED those handhelds in Cubs with and without antennas and all of those excuses ARE valid.
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I used one in the original Fly Baby (unshielded ignition) once. For the kids out there, this is what the spark plugs looked like:
1740242323434.png
The plug wires just clip to the ball at the top of the plug.

Admittedly, my experience was with a second-generation handheld, but the experience was awkward to say the least. With a headset, it was like strapping two popcorn poppers to my ears. Poppoppoppoppoppoppop all the day long. Only relief came when someone transmitted.

"PoppoppoppopBoeing Tower, Fly Baby Five Zero Zero Foxtrot Experimental inbound from the southpoppopoppoppoppoppoppoppopExperimental Zero Zero Foxtrot cleared to land runway one four rightpoppoppoppop....."

A few years after that, I bought my own Fly Baby with an electrical system and shielded ignition. About twenty years ago, the radio went on the fritz and I decided to try using a handheld. The biggest irritation there was the rat's-nest of wires needed.
1740243016000.png
The mess offended what little tendency towards tidiness that I have. My eventual solution was to flush-mount the radio in the panel itself.
1740243400165.png

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
I used one in the original Fly Baby (unshielded ignition) once. For the kids out there, this is what the spark plugs looked like:
View attachment 138364
The plug wires just clip to the ball at the top of the plug.

Admittedly, my experience was with a second-generation handheld, but the experience was awkward to say the least. With a headset, it was like strapping two popcorn poppers to my ears. Poppoppoppoppoppoppop all the day long. Only relief came when someone transmitted.

"PoppoppoppopBoeing Tower, Fly Baby Five Zero Zero Foxtrot Experimental inbound from the southpoppopoppoppoppoppoppoppopExperimental Zero Zero Foxtrot cleared to land runway one four rightpoppoppoppop....."

A few years after that, I bought my own Fly Baby with an electrical system and shielded ignition. About twenty years ago, the radio went on the fritz and I decided to try using a handheld. The biggest irritation there was the rat's-nest of wires needed.
View attachment 138365
The mess offended what little tendency towards tidiness that I have. My eventual solution was to flush-mount the radio in the panel itself.
View attachment 138366

Ron Wanttaja
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My CFI had an ICOM NAV/COM with a whole bag of accessories he could use or not. (I think one even transmitted distress calls on Vogon spacecraft frequencies.) I have a PJ2+ which is dead simple to use. I've never had an issue using either, but both the Cub and Vag have shielded ignition and external antennas.

P.S.: I normally fall into the "less is more" category. But, this is an intriguing bit of instrumentation:
1740243016000.png Do you have the Tech Manual?
 
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Rene said:
….Wind direction matters, control input matters, being smooth matters. You have to move your head and upper body around, use your eyes and your feet . . . be proactive, anticipate. Fly the airplane by feel and visual reference, rather than just make inputs based on gauge readings.

My $0.02 for what it's worth.
Click to expand...

and THEN fly the magenta line? ;)
 
Badger Fishinski said:
I was taught about a side step when i first started flying in 1986, and have always taught the side-step to my students. I'm shocked to hear that some folks don't do it or some never heard of it. Please do the side-step if you are going around. You can look down and see any departing aircraft from the runway you were about to land on...
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Flying the upwind doesn't come up all that often in day to day flying, but I'm as amazed as you are how many "pilots" don't have a clue. What is even worse is when you talk to someone that firmly believes the "Upwind" is straight down the centerline. Sort of like a low pass. IT IS NOT!!!

I don't see where anyone posted the basic pattern drawing that has been around forever.... The Upwind is an OFFSET typically to the Right. But remember it as an Offset to the OPPOSITE SIDE FROM THE DOWNWIND. Some airports have Right Traffic, so you DO NOT what to shift under the Downwind and then start climbing.
AIM Traffic Pattern.jpg
 
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M20K said:
Flying the upwind doesn't come up all that often in day to day flying, but I'm as amazed as you are how many "pilots" don't have a clue.
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“I wasn’t taught,” followed closely by, “I never read the AFH, or any other document the FAA has published on flying.”
 
Rene said:
And in less than 365 days I have learned that many pilots have radio sets that only transmit. :cool:
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I had one of those... He turned Base in front of me on Final and the two planes behind me in the extended Downwind at a very busy weekend airport (KBID). He made all his dutiful transmissions, which is how I knew he was about to cut in front of me. Never heard any of the three calls to him I made, he just kept making his calls and kept cruising along. Had a "little" discussion with him right in front of his passengers when we eventually got down that, as you said, he needed to LISTEN, not just transmit.
 
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