A Socio economic discussion about boomers.

Back to boomers and the housing market…

Two anecdotes do not a trend make, but just in the last month 2 boomer friends are selling rather large, multi-level homes to move into much smaller, single floor ranch-style homes. “Less to maintain” is the prime motivation. I wonder if, over time, these large “McMansions“ will be a harder and harder sell to upcoming generations.
 
wilkersk said:
Hmm.... ===>>https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/cwc/co...ngs-of-the-baby-boomers-and-other-cohorts.pdf
Click to expand...

I like these comparative analyses; while they can point out some stark differences, I feel like a bit of reality and context is always missed.

The youngest cohorts will near always be worse off than the oldest cohorts simply because of math.

Let’s say a 22-year old is entirely debt free and just started job 1. That persona has a net worth of zero, and decides to fully fund an IRA in year 1. At the end of year one, that’s a net worth of about $6500. With no other investments (no IRA, no non-qualified accounts, no savings, no nothing but $6500/yr into an IRA). Monthly, that’s $541 per month.

Over the 43 years, the basis will be $260K put into this IRA and, even with a paltry average return of 7%, compound interest will turn the basis in somewhere between $1.1M and $1.5M.

At 22 though, it’s hard to he disciplined enough to do that, so let’s start the math at age 30. That returns between $625K and $883K in a basis of $227,500. The only variable in the numbers relates to traditional vs Roth IRA.

Knowledge is power, and that kind of knowledge isn’t making it’s way into the heads of most young adults, I dang sure know it didn’t make their way into my head until my late 20s, which is one reason we started open conversations around the topic when our kids still in elementary school, and y’all see how that played out in their ‘adulting’ since 2016.

It’s hard to be young, knowledgable, and disciplined, and I’m somewhat glad some employers automatically opt new employees in to 401Ks; I just wish they also educated those new EEs on the time value of money between just leaving those contributions as cash or company stock versus an S&P500 or total market index fund.
 
Half Fast said:
Any engineer who can’t figure out that math on his own should have his degree revoked and his IEEE membership rescinded.
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ALL engineers should understand the world doesn’t revolve around that discipline; EE is HR shorthand for employee. Without HR most of those engineers wouldn’t have jobs.
 
MarkH said:
That proves my point - it's 50k+.
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Unfortunately the OEMs have learned that people will pay whatever it costs to buy the truck they want. Supply and demand. If folks stop buying trucks, the price will fall.
 
Half Fast said:
Any engineer who can’t figure out that math on his own should have his degree revoked and his IEEE membership rescinded.
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No doubt, there are exceptions, but a lot of the new engineers I see don’t know how to change the tire on their car or change the oil. But they can do a really nice PowerPoint on how to do both tasks. They wouldn’t recognize a socket wrench if it bit them. Now get off my lawn.
 
MarkH said:
That proves my point - it's 50k+.

My first house was 27k and I bought it in 2015.
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You do understand Ford loses $35K+ per EV it produced in 2023, right? That’s to the tune of $4+ billion this year alone. Those losses have to he made up elsewhere and Ford will likely need a multi-year effort to figure out profitability for that segment since the demand point appears to be tied to a lower selling price than they’re getting for them today.

Add to that their new labor agreement will end up adding about $900 per production unit.

As for dealer stock, one of our local, average price Ford dealers has a dozen or more new F150s in the low $40s.

New Ford vehicles in New Braunfels, TX | Bluebonnet Ford

Search for new Ford cars, trucks and SUVs for sale at Bluebonnet Ford in New Braunfels, TX
www.bbmotors.com www.bbmotors.com

Not to burst your bubble, but a near-local Ram dealer has new Ram 1500 quad cabs in the low, mid, and high $30s, depending on RWD or 4WD.
 
TCABM said:
ALL engineers should understand the world doesn’t revolve around that discipline; EE is HR shorthand for employee. Without HR most of those engineers wouldn’t have jobs.
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Baloney.

There were EEs when “HR” was called “Personnel” and we were people instead of “human resources,” ranked alongside oil resources and mineral resources. Those dweebs in HR don’t get to appropriate our abbreviation. We were there first.

And it’s the other way around. Engineers create products. HR merely creates overhead. HR wouldn’t exist without productive employees like engineers, production workers, salesmen, etc.

And I’ve been putting the EE into GEEK since 1984.
 
FastEddieB said:
Back to boomers and the housing market…

Two anecdotes do not a trend make, but just in the last month 2 boomer friends are selling rather large, multi-level homes to move into much smaller, single floor ranch-style homes. “Less to maintain” is the prime motivation. I wonder if, over time, these large “McMansions“ will be a harder and harder sell to upcoming generations.
Click to expand...
I do remember during the 2008 housing recession, at least locally, it was the McMansions that sat without a buyer. The smaller homes moved relatively easily.
 
My wife and I are very fortunate to live a comfortable lifestyle in a HCOL area. Rent and housing prices are out of control. The people our age that have houses, bought several years ago when they were somewhat affordable. Now, for 650K, you get a fixer up-er in a terrible school school district. I feel for the people here. It’s tough and extremely unaffordable. Even apartments are ridiculous. $2000 for a small studio is typical. 2500-3000 for a 1 bed
 
Half Fast said:
Any engineer who can’t figure out that math on his own should have his degree revoked and his IEEE membership rescinded.
Click to expand...

It's not about the math, it's the maturity. I made all sorts of financial moves in my early to mid 20s that I wish I could take back, and it had nothing to do with a misunderstanding of the math. :p
 
SkyChaser said:
As a Millennial/Gen whatever comes after couple, @2-Bit Speed and I are literally living this in real time...as a one income household, and no, we don't make even close to six figures. If we lived the modern lifestyle, I would have to work to fund it. As we don't, we can afford for me to stay home and do those things like make food from scratch.

House - We are struggling to find that 3 bed, 1 bath home because that type of house is no longer attractive to buyers.
Click to expand...

SkyChaser said:
So much of the pain of modern living is driven by people living above their paygrade. Have certain aspects of the economy changed, and not for the better? Yes, of course. But I could write a book on how much wasted money exists in the modern Millennial lifestyle.
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Resurrecting an old thread and a couple of old posts to say

CONGRATULATIONS!!! :rollercoaster::happydance:

to @SkyChaser and @2-Bit Speed on the purchase of their first home! They closed this morning on a beautiful (and brand new!) 3/2 in the charming (and somewhat exclusive) coastal enclave of St Mary's, GA. SWMBO and I are very proud of them (and glad we'll have a place to sleep when we visit ;))!

They've demonstrated two important principles relative to this thread. (1) Opportunities will present themselves to those who keep their eyes and minds open and can remain flexible. (2) When those opportunities do come along, one must be prepared to act quickly. They went from first seeing the property to having a contract in just a few days, and closed about a month later. To act quickly, it helped tremendously that the two of them have excellent financial discipline, have saved aggressively (even on a single income), have perfect credit, and have zero debt (uh, until now, that is).

WELL DONE, you two!


TCABM said:
It’s hard to be young, knowledgable, and disciplined,.....
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But not impossible! :biggrin:
 
Morgan3820 said:
But my advice to her was not to worry as a lot of these retired boomers are going to be selling, putting a deflationary pressure on the price of housing. And that being a physician she will always be in the top tier of wage earners.
So what do you all think?
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I agree. Plus, developers are going to be greedy and supply will out-do demand once again. Unless there is supply management / manipulation or some other market shenanigans going on that FTC should intervene, there should be a supply side uptick soon.
 
Interesting thread. We are 70 yrs old, so I guess mid baby boomers. We sold the high maintenance house with the big yard that we bought in 1990. 2400+ sq ft 2 story with basement etc. Moved into a rental that we bought 20+ yrs ago as a retirement house. We bought it because I wanted to buy at those prices, not at todays prices. I saw everything in life go up as my older brothers and sisters passed through that stage in life and raised the prices for me when i got there. For many reasons this place isn't working out as well as I had planned. Things like it's not convenient to live in. The neighborhood was never made a 55 and over like it was planned. That is both good and bad. There are many young people with young kids, that's nice but also not so nice. The young people are raising their kids and working and really don't want to be bothered by old people. More rental property means more transient. So the neighborhood isn't very "neighborly". As in you don't have neighbors who watch out for neighbors or are helpful etc. No neighbors who will call you when you are out of town if somethign happens to your place, etc. Anyway, we are looking for something else. So there are many, many 2 story high maintenance big yard places to choose from at reasonable (by todays standard) prices. Try to find a low maintenance, main floor living place and it almost doesn't exist. Want a reasonable garage for toys (your not dead yet!) and it really doesn't exist and when it does its sold before it goes on the market. No supply, and big demand. I think Harry Dent got it fairly accurate 40 yrs ago.
 
"The Times, They are A Changin'" -Bob Zimmerma

"What is will ever be" - Solomon

"Sophiatication is the ability to hold two seemingly contrary ideas to both be true." - Prof. Cooper

My parents are boomers, thiers was perhaps the last generation that could do it all without a plan. Buy a reasonably priced meal, bike, car, house . . .. Today, a plan is essential.

If you have any assets, hire a professional. Those who have personal wealth (and / or control institutional wealth) wrote the tax codes. Even if you work for a living, you can take advantage of the uneven playing field they created.

If you care about your children, make plans, plans for thier education, gift assets as you are able to and avoid taxes later, create a succession plan for your assets that you retain.

(I am not an attorney, CPA, or financial planner. But I have at times employed all three.)
 
Things have changed a lot. I live in a 21-unit building, am 38 and also the youngest owner. The other young owners are 50 and 53. The rest are all of +70. From there, around half rent their units and the other ones don't want to invest in any maintenance.

I understand them, with how expensive things are today, there is no way that all of them can live a comfortable+ life with rising costs.

My 4-year old son is the only child in the building. Things we used to do like going to out to play with your neighbors are things he will never know.

We bought here because we live in a large city and the only way to be able to afford a nice and large 4BR, 4BA condo was in a 1990s building. All new constructions are built to maximize the builder's profit and not thought at all on the owners. New things are so small that is ridiculous to think a family can thrive there.

I look at my grandma, who still lives in the place my grandfather built +50 years ago, her maintenance issues are growing, she lives in a 2-story but there is no way that she can sell and afford a newish condo without a huge HOA fee.

My parents live in the house they built in 1994, they both still work but when I hear how much they are paying in maintenance and utilities, it is mind blowing.

Interesting times we are living in
 
Morgan3820 said:
I do remember during the 2008 housing recession, at least locally, it was the McMansions that sat without a buyer. The smaller homes moved relatively easily.
Click to expand...
In our area, houses selling for $200 and under are on the market a month or so on average. $200 to a mil, six months or more, over a mil some have been up for sale for multiple years.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
Interesting thread. We are 70 yrs old, so I guess mid baby boomers. We sold the high maintenance house with the big yard that we bought in 1990. 2400+ sq ft 2 story with basement etc. Moved into a rental that we bought 20+ yrs ago as a retirement house. We bought it because I wanted to buy at those prices, not at todays prices. I saw everything in life go up as my older brothers and sisters passed through that stage in life and raised the prices for me when i got there. For many reasons this place isn't working out as well as I had planned. Things like it's not convenient to live in. The neighborhood was never made a 55 and over like it was planned. That is both good and bad. There are many young people with young kids, that's nice but also not so nice. The young people are raising their kids and working and really don't want to be bothered by old people. More rental property means more transient. So the neighborhood isn't very "neighborly". As in you don't have neighbors who watch out for neighbors or are helpful etc. No neighbors who will call you when you are out of town if somethign happens to your place, etc. Anyway, we are looking for something else. So there are many, many 2 story high maintenance big yard places to choose from at reasonable (by todays standard) prices. Try to find a low maintenance, main floor living place and it almost doesn't exist. Want a reasonable garage for toys (your not dead yet!) and it really doesn't exist and when it does its sold before it goes on the market. No supply, and big demand. I think Harry Dent got it fairly accurate 40 yrs ago.
Click to expand...
I should have finished the thought. IF and its a big IF we find a place we want, what do we do with the current place. Turn it over to our kids as generational wealth, or rent it out again ( I really don't want to deal with that again), or sell it and pay BIG TIME taxes. Some would say, "nice to have options" and yes probably, but it also causes other issues.
 
If you look at the life of middle class in the 50's and compare it to today, I think you would find that they lived much more frugal lives. So average had maybe one car, not 2 or 3. I looked at the houses that were built in that day around me. 1100 sq ft 1 car garage probably a basement. Compare that to the average build today, 3000+ sq ft etc. 1950's household may not have had a tv at all, today every kid has a tv in their room, and probably some sort of theater room in the house. Several cars and maybe an RV or boat. I remember my Dad complaining about paying 19.9 cents a gallon for gas at a place in 1960. What is that today? The stripped car or the very basic house doesn't sell, nobody will buy it.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
I should have finished the thought. IF and its a big IF we find a place we want, what do we do with the current place. Turn it over to our kids as generational wealth, or rent it out again ( I really don't want to deal with that again), or sell it and pay BIG TIME taxes. Some would say, "nice to have options" and yes probably, but it also causes other issues.
Click to expand...

Recheck the tax code. There were a number of changes a few years ago which have dramatic effect on real estate planning.

Tim
 
Oldmanb777 said:
If you look at the life of middle class in the 50's and compare it to today, I think you would find that they lived much more frugal lives. So average had maybe one car, not 2 or 3. I looked at the houses that were built in that day around me. 1100 sq ft 1 car garage probably a basement. Compare that to the average build today, 3000+ sq ft etc. 1950's household may not have had a tv at all, today every kid has a tv in their room, and probably some sort of theater room in the house. Several cars and maybe an RV or boat. I remember my Dad complaining about paying 19.9 cents a gallon for gas at a place in 1960. What is that today? The stripped car or the very basic house doesn't sell, nobody will buy it.
Click to expand...
Sure, but at the same time most of the households were single-income. Somewhere along the way it became necessary for both parents to work, which required a 2nd car, which led to houses with bigger garages. I do agree that things have just gotten bigger and bigger, but hardly anyone builds the 1,000 sq ft homes anymore. All of the developers are building 1,600+ sq ft homes as cheaply as they can and generating a market where that's all that's available. Sure, you can custom build a home in any size/layout you want, but most people just buy a home in a neighborhood where they are just selecting from a handful of floor plans.

As far as no one buying a very basic house, that also doesn't hold much water. Most of the simple homes get snatched up by real estate companies looking to either flip or rent it out. It can be difficult for individuals to win bids because the real estate companies have deeper cash reserves and are often willing to buy without inspections or will do a quick-close. The people in their upper-20's trying to buy a first home can't compete with that and thus sit on the sideline for longer periods of time.
 
My parents (ages in early-60s) are in the process of getting their current 2-story home ready for sale (~3,700sq ft w/oversize 3/car garage and a 30x50 shop with 50' lean-to on 3 acres). They are downsizing the house, but upsizing the land as they just purchased 13 acres about 20 miles away from their current location. Plan is to build a ~2K sqft barndominium ranch-style home with either attached or separate shop. They have a house full of furniture and "stuff" that needs to be sold off, donated, or trashed. The other homes in their "neighborhood" have been slow-selling over the past 9 months, so they hope the market revives a bit in the next year. They will likely be able to build the new place, including the land purchase, for the same or less than they get for their existing home. They will then be able to retire with no debt/mortgage in the next 1-2 years when it's all said and done. I don't expect any money or property when they pass on, but whatever is left over I'll split with my one sibling.

They live fairly frugally and we never had luxury cars or went on lavish vacations growing up. However, we never went without, and had an older boat and a used jet ski, went to different places for vacation (usually centered around sports or work trips). I use those same lifestyle choices today in the hopes that I can have a similar result with my children and retirement.

I think many people (generation isn't really as big of a factor post-Gen X) have always had issues with those who do not save for the future/emergencies, and who feel they need to "keep up with the Jones'." Many people see what wealth their parents or grandparents amassed and seek to buy those same things NOW rather than accumulating them as their income affords. So many end up a slave to loan payments and always paycheck-to-paycheck. Materialistic lifestyles aren't anything unique to modern times though.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
. . . . The stripped car or the very basic house doesn't sell, nobody will buy it.
Click to expand...
I drive a 60 year old car and a 70 year old bike and have owned a 70 and 80 year old airplane, so I may not be typical.

Or it may be the 'hood 'cause there are a lot of old cars, boats and airplanes around here

Do "basic" cars and houses not sell because nobody wants them, or because with the regulatory climate and concentration in manufacturing, they aren't being made?

Basic houses sell like hotcakes here. A rationally priced 1200-1800 square foot house might be on market for days, or go under contact the first day. My neighbors buy old cars and keep them going rather than spend money on all the accessories du jour in a crapmobile that doesn't reliably perform it's primary function in snow, rain, or God-forbid sunshine.
 
2-Bit Speed said:
I don't think that's true.
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Not always... If one parent has a high-paying job (doctors, lawyers, C-suite, etc) then it's easy for the other to not work. If one parent has a reasonably high-paying job and they budget carefully, still possible. But a single income if one of them is a teacher, or a store clerk, or waitstaff? It's hard to do that and support yourself, much less a family.
 
2-Bit Speed said:
I don't think that's true.
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It depends on lifestyle. If you want to farm out all childcare and domestic chores a second income is needed.

I'm not advocating for men to work and women stay home. And that never was a reality for the poor, mom, dad AND the kids worked. It's just economics. I know professional couples where both parties essentially work part-time, split the domestic stuff, and live in what would otherwise be thier weekend and retirement home.

But like everything decent in life it takes coomunication, cooperation, and planning. When you live an hour from town daily shopping trips and having a pizza delivered 'cause you didn't feel like making dinner isn't really an option.
 
2-Bit Speed said:
I don't think that's true.
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Median US wage for males is around $60K/yr, less taxes and medical insurance. Median rent is $2K/mo. All other typical expenses ($400/mo car payment, car/renters insurance, groceries/food, etc) will leave you with less than $1K/mo in income to cover luxuries, emergencies. Can you "survive" on a single income? Sure, some can, especially if nothing bad happens. However, there are a LOT of people making less than the median income. Someone making $45K/yr is approaching the poverty line with a family of 4. They scrape by (can't afford daycare because it's $800-1K/mo per kid).
 
JackL-3J said:
I drive a 60 year old car and a 70 year old bike and have owned a 70 and 80 year old airplane, so I may not be typical.

Or it may be the 'hood 'cause there are a lot of old cars, boats and airplanes around here

Do "basic" cars and houses not sell because nobody wants them, or because with the regulatory climate and concentration in manufacturing, they aren't being made?

Basic houses sell like hotcakes here. A rationally priced 1200-1800 square foot house might be on market for days, or go under contact the first day. My neighbors buy old cars and keep them going rather than spend money on all the accessories du jour in a crapmobile that doesn't reliably perform it's primary function in snow, rain, or God-forbid sunshine.
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I live in a 1965 home (albeit over 3K sq ft) because it was a foreclosure in 2010 that I could afford as a first home. I drive a 2003 diesel suv because I could buy it cheap and it would last. My wife drives a 2017 sedan that is a luxury car, but was bought several years used. We have a ski boat that is older than I am, lol. People around me generally seem to be holding onto things longer, but there are still people out there buying CyberTrucks and Corvettes the minute they hit the car lot. Still new neighborhoods with "Homes Starting in the $350Ks" going up all around us. So either more people are making higher incomes, or they are signing themselves up for hefty loans for 30 years.

I consider myself lucky to have been in a position to buy my home so cheaply at a time when many were losing their homes due to the effects of the '08 recession. I also came into the workforce shortly before that and progressively landed jobs and promotions that often yielded 50% pay increases in rapid succession. Those things don't often line up for everyone.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Median US wage for males is around $60K/yr, less taxes and medical insurance. Median rent is $2K/mo. All other typical expenses ($400/mo car payment, car/renters insurance, groceries/food, etc) will leave you with less than $1K/mo in income to cover luxuries, emergencies. Can you "survive" on a single income? Sure, some can, especially if nothing bad happens. However, there are a LOT of people making less than the median income. Someone making $45K/yr is approaching the poverty line with a family of 4. They scrape by (can't afford daycare because it's $800-1K/mo per kid).
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Then find cheaper rent and sell the car. Also, why would a family with one spouse staying home ever put their kids in daycare?
 
2-Bit Speed said:
Then find cheaper rent and sell the car.
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The places where jobs are don't have cheaper rent. You can't just throw that out their like, 'ah, these people are dumb, just spend less'. Places with jobs tend to have higher costs of living. Places with lower costs of living tend to have jobs that pay less also.
 
SoonerAviator said:
I also came into the workforce shortly before that and progressively landed jobs and promotions that often yielded 50% pay increases in rapid succession. Those things don't often line up for everyone.
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Yep. And lots of people are simply not smart enough or business savvy enough get jobs that pay good wages. Those people are not going to be able to climb the ladder in that fashion. Yet, they still need somewhere to live, food to eat and a way to get to work.
 
2-Bit Speed said:
Then find cheaper rent and sell the car. Also, why would a family with one spouse staying home ever put their kids in daycare?
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"Just find cheaper rent", lol. Well that is often easier said than done. If a large portion of the people in an area are struggling, they can't all just "go find a cheaper place". Sometimes there's not a cheaper place to be had that doesn't introduce it's own problems to the financial equation. I also wasn't implying that a single-income household would be paying for childcare. I was saying that people scrape by as you get lower in the income level and often have to get a second income to afford childcare. My wife's after-tax income essentially just covered the cost of daycare for a few years when we had both kids enrolled (a tad over $2K/mo). I left the choice up to her whether she worked or stayed at home with the kids. She elected to work. Every family is going to have difficult decisions, especially if it comes to health insurance. If the sole income earner works for a small company that doesn't offer benefits, you're in a new scenario.
 
SoonerAviator said:
My wife's after-tax income essentially just covered the cost of daycare for a few years when we had both kids enrolled (a tad over $2K/mo). I left the choice up to her whether she worked or stayed at home with the kids. She elected to work.
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but that was a lifestyle choice, not a necessity.
 
SoonerAviator said:
I live in a 1965 home (albeit over 3K sq ft) because it was a foreclosure in 2010 that I could afford as a first home. I drive a 2003 diesel suv because I could buy it cheap and it would last. My wife drives a 2017 sedan that is a luxury car, but was bought several years used. We have a ski boat that is older than I am, lol. People around me generally seem to be holding onto things longer, but there are still people out there buying CyberTrucks and Corvettes the minute they hit the car lot. Still new neighborhoods with "Homes Starting in the $350Ks" going up all around us. So either more people are making higher incomes, or they are signing themselves up for hefty loans for 30 years.

I consider myself lucky to have been in a position to buy my home so cheaply at a time when many were losing their homes due to the effects of the '08 recession. I also came into the workforce shortly before that and progressively landed jobs and promotions that often yielded 50% pay increases in rapid succession. Those things don't often line up for everyone.
Click to expand...
The most valuable thing I got out of playing football was learning that if you study the game, understand the odds, and play hard to the whistle, you are always in a position to benefit when the stars align in your favor. If you don't do any of those, you wont enjoy "what could have been".
 
MauleSkinner said:
but that was a lifestyle choice, not a necessity.
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Right, I didn't say it was anything other than that. I was illustrating that there are really high expenses that can force people into earning a second income. But if you have someone who is a single parent, those same expenses can force you into a very tight financial situation. You can choose to not have cell phones, or streaming services, or even electricity. Those are all lifestyle choices, but at a certain point a single income can be difficult to maintain when the number of dependents increases.
 
2-Bit Speed said:
Then find cheaper rent and sell the car. Also, why would a family with one spouse staying home ever put their kids in daycare?
Click to expand...
I wouldn't, but there are reasons. Like, for instance, getting your kid into social situations at a young age so they can learn about how to interact with other people.
172andyou said:
The places where jobs are don't have cheaper rent. You can't just throw that out their like, 'ah, these people are dumb, just spend less'. Places with jobs tend to have higher costs of living. Places with lower costs of living tend to have jobs that pay less also.
Click to expand...
And if you focus too much on the rent, you end up moving farther away from work to spend less on rent and end up spending more on gas to get to work instead.
MauleSkinner said:
but that was a lifestyle choice, not a necessity.
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Sounds like it didn't make a difference either way. Stay home and take care of the kid, or work and spend it all on day care. At least if you work you'll get more in Social Security someday.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Right, I didn't say it was anything other than that. I was illustrating that there are really high expenses that can force people into earning a second income. But if you have someone who is a single parent, those same expenses can force you into a very tight financial situation. You can choose to not have cell phones, or streaming services, or even electricity. Those are all lifestyle choices, but at a certain point a single income can be difficult to maintain when the number of dependents increases.
Click to expand...
Cell phone and power are not lifestyle choices in 2024.

Streaming services, sure.
 
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