Florida in Crosshairs Again…. Milton

can someone go on windy and using the wind layer and slider, show me when/where the 100+mph winds are?
 
Milton has increased to 180 mph as of the 4pm update which is a strong category 5 hurricane. Right now it is in a low shear environment over some very warm waters which has allowed it to quickly intensify. Fortunately, it is expected to gradually get into strong shear and dry air is expected to be entrained into the storm which should limit its intensity. Still it might end up with a weak category 4 intensity when it makes landfall. Catastrophic nonetheless.


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My cousin lives in Tampa and her husband is a Pasco county Sheriff. Prayers to all.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Lakeland is far enough inland that she should be safe. Most houses are reinforced concrete block and can easily withstand a direct hit as long as no water issues.

The challenge is the aftermath. Lost power, blocked streets, etc. Is she alone or does she have someone to care for her?
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She has a nephew in the area and the family is coordinating. Thanks for your concern.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Seems imprudent given that level of advanced age.
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Oh believe me, we tried telling her. She has her two best friends from her younger years there and at some point you just have to shrug and let people do what they’re gonna do. But she has a nephew who’s like a son there and he is going to take care of her.
 
mryan75 said:
She has a nephew in the area and the family is coordinating. Thanks for your concern.
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My Downs daughter lives in an independant living facility in Lakeland. Most of the living facilities I'm familiar with have a backup generator and can provide at least partial power. My daughter is near the hospital / medical area and those areas tend to get power back fast. Health care facilities and special needs facilities get priority.
 
PaulS said:
Florida people near the path, get the heck out of there.
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Common misconception. Water is the killer. If you are in a declared evacuation zone, get the hell out of there. Everyone else should generally stay put unless you have personal needs that might cause challenges.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Common misconception. Water is the killer. If you are in a declared evacuation zone, get the hell out of there. Everyone else should generally stay put unless you have personal needs that might cause challenges.
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Not necessarily true. High winds, tornadoes, flash flooding from heavy rain, etc., can be just as bad a killer. Asheville didn't get hit by the storm surge. A tree falling on your house can be just as deadly as a flood.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Not necessarily true. High winds, tornadoes, flash flooding from heavy rain, etc., can be just as bad a killer. Asheville didn't get hit by the storm surge. A tree falling on your house can be just as deadly as a flood.
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Flash floods not caused by a storm surge don’t happen in Florida…no drastic elevation changes,water just slowly rises and doesn’t drop very quickly either.
Not counting trailer parks, modern homes are built to withstand hurricanes, but maybe not cat 5s.
Not many big tall trees either, palm trees are usually the tallest (50’) and they are not big (heavy).
Up north you have big trees (more affected by wind) and rain will weaken the soil, Florida sandy soil just doesn’t do that. After a hurricane you will see lots of branches and palms, but not fallen trees.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Not necessarily true. High winds, tornadoes, flash flooding from heavy rain, etc., can be just as bad a killer. Asheville didn't get hit by the storm surge. A tree falling on your house can be just as deadly as a flood.
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There are risks from evacuation as well. For hurricane Rita in Texas, folks outside of evac zones tried to leave and clogged up all the roads, making it much harder for folks from the evac zones to get out. Then it became a feedback loop of people running out of gas and further clogging roads. More people died in the evacuation than were killed by the weather effects of the hurricane itself. So just blanket telling everyone in central FL to "get out" is not a panacea.
 
eman1200 said:
can someone go on windy and using the wind layer and slider, show me when/where the 100+mph winds are?
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Pretty sure windy winds are a model output vs actual measurement. Think radar and satellite are the only pictures of actual conditions. Exception to that being readings off of weather stations or buoys. I tried putting a flag in various parts of the storm and came up with much lower winds than actual. Ironically, I find the European model to over forecast winds most of the time.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
Flash floods not caused by a storm surge don’t happen in Florida…no drastic elevation changes,water just slowly rises and doesn’t drop very quickly either.
Not counting trailer parks, modern homes are built to withstand hurricanes, but maybe not cat 5s.
Not many big tall trees either, palm trees are usually the tallest (50’) and they are not big (heavy).
Up north you have big trees (more affected by wind) and rain will weaken the soil, Florida sandy soil just doesn’t do that. After a hurricane you will see lots of branches and palms, but not fallen trees.
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NOAA disagrees...
 

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Sigh. We live at the blue dot and got about 2-1/2 ft of water in our house from Helene.
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Anther storm surge won’t do much as the damage has been done. Everyone’s front yard near the water looks like ours:IMG_1516.jpeg
So now the concern is hurricane force winds blowing all of this debris around. Everyone I know is evacuating inland. We’re going to Orlando. Our toys, boat/motorcycles/plane will have to ride it out in place. Now it’s all all about how much it weakens and the exact track— 10 miles one way or the other will determine the outcome.
 
tsts4 said:
Everyone I know is evacuating inland. We’re going to Orlando. Our toys, boat/motorcycles/plane will have to ride it out in place.
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Smart move. A worst case direct hit could put 10-15 feet of water on Apollo Beach. And that would be high energy waves and surges, not a slow steady rise. Not survivable.

Sorry this happened to you. I have two good friends in Apollo Beach who had the same thing happen. I know it's tough.
 
Jim_R said:
There are risks from evacuation as well. For hurricane Rita in Texas, folks outside of evac zones tried to leave and clogged up all the roads, making it much harder for folks from the evac zones to get out. Then it became a feedback loop of people running out of gas and further clogging roads. More people died in the evacuation than were killed by the weather effects of the hurricane itself. So just blanket telling everyone in central FL to "get out" is not a panacea.
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Over 130 people died during the Rita evacuation…accidents and old people from Hospitals who did not receive care they needed. I had personal relationships with three of them…more than a few were under reported…we arrive Bermuda tonight around 2000 and looks like our crew will be stuck here till Sunday…
 
I'm the evac zone in Gibsonton close enough to the water that I am quite sure it's going to flood the house. Moved anything precious to family house inland. And as much other valuables as I can upstairs. I hope that minimizes the pain.
Never dealt with storm surge or major flood damage. How do things like the outdoor AC units fare?
 
midwestpa24 said:
NOAA disagrees...
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It happens, but it's usually pretty localized inland. Storm drains run into lakes, so massive rain events cause lake levels to rise dramatically and people in low areas, especially waterfront, get some flooding. But for inland FL it's NOTHING like what NC has experienced. Away from the storm surge, we won't see 10' of water in homes and hangars like those poor folks have experienced.
 
That was the plan, shut down the electrical. Well, probably needed a new unit anyways. Thanks for the tip. Lived in Florida and tropical islands my whole life. This will be only the second storm I evacuate. The last one was Hurricane Andrew when I lived in Homestead.
 
Jim_R said:
There are risks from evacuation as well. For hurricane Rita in Texas, folks outside of evac zones tried to leave and clogged up all the roads, making it much harder for folks from the evac zones to get out. Then it became a feedback loop of people running out of gas and further clogging roads. More people died in the evacuation than were killed by the weather effects of the hurricane itself. So just blanket telling everyone in central FL to "get out" is not a panacea.
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Yes, exactly.
Florida does this drill several times a year. Virtually every public school in coastal counties is set up as a shelter. They are safe, staffed, well supplied, and accommodate pets.
 
tsts4 said:
Sigh. We live at the blue dot and got about 2-1/2 ft of water in our house from Helene.
View attachment 134154
Anther storm surge won’t do much as the damage has been done. Everyone’s front yard near the water looks like ours:View attachment 134156
So now the concern is hurricane force winds blowing all of this debris around. Everyone I know is evacuating inland. We’re going to Orlando. Our toys, boat/motorcycles/plane will have to ride it out in place. Now it’s all all about how much it weakens and the exact track— 10 miles one way or the other will determine the outcome.
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And the waves of the storm surge also throwing all that debris around like a battering ram.
 
farangutan said:
That was the plan, shut down the electrical. Well, probably needed a new unit anyways. Thanks for the tip. Lived in Florida and tropical islands my whole life. This will be only the second storm I evacuate. The last one was Hurricane Andrew when I lived in Homestead.
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Assuming you do need a new one, they are now installing them on legs or platforms to get them up out of the water. Probably not 15' of water, but it helps.
 
Good to know, thanks. If my house floods badly. I'm fixing it up and selling or renting it. Ain't nobody got time for this.
 
farangutan said:
Good to know, thanks. If my house floods badly. I'm fixing it up and selling or renting it. Ain't nobody got time for this.
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Back when the earth was young and so was I, people who wanted to live near the water built their homes like this:

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I don't know when it became fashionable to build inland suburbia style single-story homes, flat on the ground, in flood zones, but it's really not a great idea, for reasons that will be left as an exercise for the reader.
 
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Chicago winters might be treacherous sometimes, but I'll take them any day of the week over watching a hurricane barreling towards my home. I don't know how you all in FL cope with that stuff. That'd be a 1-and-done for me. Especially with the crazy insurance costs I'm reading about out there.

But I hope everyone makes it to safety and Milton pumps the brakes on wind speed before it makes landfall. Best of luck.
 
Half Fast said:
Back when the earth was young and so was I, people who wanted to live near the water built their homes like this:

View attachment 134157 View attachment 134158 View attachment 134159


I don't know when it became fashionable to build inland suburbia style single-story homes, flat on the ground, in flood zones, but it's really not a great idea, for reasons that will be left as an exercise for the reader.
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Especially after draining and building on top of the mangroves and wet lands that provided some protection.
 
Interesting insurance comparison. I was helping my parents with renewing auto insurance quotes. 2015 and 2011 Lexus RX350s. The older car is in Florida, newer in Indiana. Florida quote was 4x, same broker and insurance company.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Interesting insurance comparison. I was helping my parents with renewing auto insurance quotes. 2015 and 2011 Lexus RX350s. The older car is in Florida, newer in Indiana. Florida quote was 4x, same broker and insurance company.
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That's what we get when people decide to just leave their planes/cars in the way of the hurricane.
 
Katamarino said:
That's what we get when people decide to just leave their planes/cars in the way of the hurricane.
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Yeah well some of us had more pressing tasks than repositioning toys. Sorry my poor decisions impacted your premiums. Oh and BTW car insurance premiums, which was the example, here in FL are more affected by demographics and the fact we’re a no fault state than storm losses. Homeowners and flood insurance on the other hand.,,..
 
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Google Maps (10/8 1500 EDT) shows I-75 east-bound (Alligator Alley) through the Everglades with very heavy traffic. Webcams show bumper-to-bumper. Looks like folks are heading over to Miami.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Chicago winters might be treacherous sometimes, but I'll take them any day of the week over watching a hurricane barreling towards my home. I don't know how you all in FL cope with that stuff. That'd be a 1-and-done for me. Especially with the crazy insurance costs I'm reading about out there.

But I hope everyone makes it to safety and Milton pumps the brakes on wind speed before it makes landfall. Best of luck.
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I’m really happy with living in an airpark, but I’m getting less than completely sure that we’ll stay in Florida. No state income tax and gas is cheaper, but property tax and insurance are very high, plus health care sucks. Way too many low-performing doctors from Caribbean medical schools who aren’t prepared for visits scheduled far in advance, indifferent and lazy office staff, months to get appointments.

If not for airpark life, we’d be out. Where, I’m not sure. Possibly northern Nevada outside Reno.
 
tsts4 said:
Yeah well some of us had more pressing tasks than repositioning toys. Sorry my poor decisions impacted your premiums.
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I can remember for years how certain people would beach about all the money spent down south on hurricane damage. Then Sandy hit and wiped out a bunch of their planes, cars, and toys. Hmmm. :rolleyes:
 
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