Rcmutz
Cleared for Takeoff
Seems like going into the winter.can i speak to the seasonality of sales? when are the most planes on the market.
Seems like going into the winter.can i speak to the seasonality of sales? when are the most planes on the market.
We just had a <1yr partner sell his share for liquidity purposes. I’m waiting for the docs, but I suspect his share sold below his purchase price, a first in 8 years.… but liquidity is going to be real wake up call...
yup yup. Let's goooooooo!We just had a <1yr partner sell his share for liquidity purposes. I’m waiting for the docs, but I suspect his share sold below his purchase price, a first in 8 years.
What is your prediction over the next 6-9 months?Decent uptick in the number of aircraft for sale (and even more just within the last week since I ran this).
Maybe a seasonal artifact. The trend continues that things are taking a while to sell.
Not much change in aggregate pricing
Archer/Malibu pricing stats might be a little misleading. Notes at bottom.
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My macro views are almost in total lockstep with Hindsight's.What is your prediction over the next 6-9 months?
I'm currently in training for my ppl. I'm happy to get my license and rent for a year. I want a C172. I have loosely followed over the last several months and there seems to be a lot more on the market and plenty that have slashed their prices. I feel like the concert is slowing coming to an end. I guess I'm willing to spend the same or possibly slightly more in a year than watching price drop 20-30% in 6months to a year.My prediction is - I can't predict, and I've not run into a source that seems to be able to.
So if you want to own a plane, bite the current bullet and buy. If you want to buy a plane to make money on, buy a lottery ticket instead.
I get it. There's no guarantee the price drops in a year anywho, so you're taking a gamble either way.I guess I'm willing to spend the same or possibly slightly more in a year than watching price drop 20-30% in 6months to a year.
Your hopes will be dashed. Sorry.I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
As an exampme, about a year ago we were making fun of 2-3 Cardinals that were listed for around $200k (very high $100s to $250). Now it seems more like a norm, and nowhere nearly as well equipped (avionics) as those.I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
The snowball beginsFinally have a 1y lap of data as of the beginning of last month, which allows me to do YoY comparisons.
I'll throw together another report after the fly-in this weekend for anyone interested.
But here's a fun fact...
In the aircraft makes/models I track (certified, major mfrs), there are +30% more listings this year compared to the same time last year. That's a sizeable increase.
What really caught my attention though was the recent pace of inventory growth. I'd seen the monthly growths in the mid single digits and sort of shrugged it off, but cumulatively they've added up especially compared to last yr.
For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's +8.2%.
And now that I look back, the monthly value of listing increases have been accelerating since about June. So that's at least an interesting feature to keep an eye on.
that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.Notes:
- PA28 sales slowed to a crawl (~28%) relative to their normal selling pace (normally 40-50%); I think that's the lowest turnover I've seen yet
It's possible, but my guess is that it's not super likely. How many people knew that was coming down the pipe? I for one, did not - and I'm a PA28R owner!that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.
Just wondering.
The days of a sub-100k plane are almost over. Average 172 prices are $128k!
Would be interested if we could get the actual sale price for the ones sold.... I bet many are being sold below asking and sellers are just increasing prices
The data I have seems to suggest a broad based increase in inventory, it doesn't appear to limited only to retracts. Though that's an interesting demographic trend I'm going to make note to check on as we get more data.“For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's+8.2%+8.6%.”
We shall see if supply and demand really holds. I suspect the increase is due to a lot of older pilots on complex aircraft aging out on insurance costs. I’ve thought about a bonanza for a long time, but at 67, I think I’ll keep my Tiger.
Wish this were possible. Alas, I don't know of a way to do it. The bank lenders probably have the best data on this but don't share it to the best of my knowledge. Insurance companies probably have the second best.Would be interested if we could get the actual sale price for the ones sold.... I bet many are being sold below asking and sellers are just increasing prices
Can you send a link to that series? I meant to bookmark it when I saw it before. I've looked for it a few times but I couldn't find any current data.If pilots were getting out of aviation, I'd expect avgas consumption to decrease, but looking at USEIA's product supplied figures, consumption is up by 10 percent year over year.
Can you send a link to that series? I meant to bookmark it when I saw it before. I've looked for it a few times but I couldn't find any current data.
The data I have seems to suggest a broad based increase in inventory, it doesn't appear to limited only to retracts. Though that's an interesting demographic trend I'm going to make note to check on as we get more data.
What I've been seeing, but need more time to watch it play out, is just a slow down in turnover, most noticeable at the high end of the market. (In the series tracked, I count "high-end" as Bo A36s, Cessna 206s, SR22s and Malibus)
This year their sales pace seems to have weakened. A36s for instance: beautiful planes, but pricey. They're selling at a crawl recently: only ~1 in 10 listed A36s sells per month. For SR22s, it's ~20% turnover, so 1 in 5 listed SR22s sells per month. Malibus are the worst, occasionally we see 0% turnover in that category. Seems like those, while nice planes, are harder to unload to a new buyer.
It doesn't take much of an increase in listings to upset that delicate supply/demand balance and see an inventory buildup.
Wish this were possible. Alas, I don't know of a way to do it. The bank lenders probably have the best data on this but don't share it to the best of my knowledge. Insurance companies probably have the second best.
EDIT: VREF claims to have actual sales prices but they stopped sharing that data with AOPA members. Plus, just by looking at their series it seemed obvious they were doing some kind of smoothing to the data, which makes it harder to actually spot trends in a timely fashion.
I witnessed this in Triathlons after a major boom in popularity, few key difference and an obvious ones are the cost/accessibility. I read a great article in slow twitch several years ago on the cycle of sport popularity and the inevitable return to the norm over time. It fell back substantially and has now stabilized. It was about 5-6yrs after the initial peak.The data I have seems to suggest a broad based increase in inventory, it doesn't appear to limited only to retracts. Though that's an interesting demographic trend I'm going to make note to check on as we get more data.
What I've been seeing, but need more time to watch it play out, is just a slow down in turnover, most noticeable at the high end of the market. (In the series tracked, I count "high-end" as Bo A36s, Cessna 206s, SR22s and Malibus)
This year their sales pace seems to have weakened. A36s for instance: beautiful planes, but pricey. They're selling at a crawl recently: only ~1 in 10 listed A36s sells per month. For SR22s, it's ~20% turnover, so 1 in 5 listed SR22s sells per month. Malibus are the worst, occasionally we see 0% turnover in that category. Seems like those, while nice planes, are harder to unload to a new buyer.
It doesn't take much of an increase in listings to upset that delicate supply/demand balance and see an inventory buildup.
Wish this were possible. Alas, I don't know of a way to do it. The bank lenders probably have the best data on this but don't share it to the best of my knowledge. Insurance companies probably have the second best.
EDIT: VREF claims to have actual sales prices but they stopped sharing that data with AOPA members. Plus, just by looking at their series it seemed obvious they were doing some kind of smoothing to the data, which makes it harder to actually spot trends in a timely fashion.
That would be it!
you know what you CAN get for 750k? A late 70s Cessna Citation (with plenty of life left in it). You'd also probably have a partner here in Chicagoland... Just sayin...That would be it!
I mean, looks nice and everything. But 3/4 of a million bucks for a 1980s 210 seems excessive.
This won't even sell for 500k lol.
I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....