Where is everyone?

J

JOhnH

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Right Seater
It is a relatively cool calm Sunday with clear skies, so we thought we'd take the Bonanza up for a little workout. We haven't been up for around 2 weeks for various reasons.

WHERE WAS EVERYONE? I thought my ADS-B display wasn't working. I also noticed that the radios were unusually quiet. Just as I was about to do a radio check, I heard ATC talk to someone else. I looked at my IPAD and saw ONE other plane showing up.

The skies here are almost always crowded. Instead of hundreds of planes in the area this morning I saw a total of around 10.

Is it fuel prices? Is the holiday keeping people on the ground? It was kind of spooky up there.
 
JOhnH said:
It is a relatively cool calm Sunday with clear skies, so we thought we'd take the Bonanza up for a little workout. We haven't been up for around 2 weeks for various reasons.

WHERE WAS EVERYONE? I thought my ADS-B display wasn't working. I also noticed that the radios were unusually quiet. Just as I was about to do a radio check, I heard ATC talk to someone else. I looked at my IPAD and saw ONE other plane showing up.

The skies here are almost always crowded. Instead of hundreds of planes in the area this morning I saw a total of around 10.

Is it fuel prices? Is the holiday keeping people on the ground? It was kind of spooky up there.
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apparently you didn't get the stealth update to your ADS-B equipment...
 
It's funny what you said about ads-b. I was up the other day also and thought the same thing, there was no traffic showing on the iPad and twice I checked to make sure "traffic" was picked in the menu.
I'm in northern ohio just south of CLE.
 
Didn't you get the memo? Everyone was supposed to fly last weekend. Where were you?
 
Gas prices definitely playing a role. $3 higher at home field. I'll enjoy some other things and only do "required" trips until it comes back down
 
Well, we flew to Galveston from Mount Pleasant, Tx on Tuesday. Have been at the Beach House with the whole fam damily. Planning on flying back home Tuesday. Air traffic was very thin coming in and has been minimal over the house. In the past there were planes flying down the beach a lot on the weekend of the fourth, but very few this year. Not sure why. Fuel prices? People staying home for the holiday? Not sure.
 
I flew this AM in the Cub. Total of 9 landings and included one new airport. Skies weren’t very crowded, but I wouldn’t say empty.
 
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down? I really don’t believe it’s a supply and demand issue as some like to say it is.
 
RyanB said:
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down?
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probably because cause/effect isn't that quick?
 
RyanB said:
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down? I really don’t believe it’s a supply and demand issue as some like to say it is.
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Both my A&P and an aircraft broker I met say it is still because of COVID. People just don't want to fly commercial any more if they can help it. They may not fly a lot, but when they do fly, they want to fly their own plane, on their own schedule, with family and friends as their only passengers.
 
I don't think thousands of cancelled airline flights reflect people not wanting to fly commercial.

Today...it's too hot and humid...and the increase in fuel prices are part of the reason I am not flying my planes. Not any local airport convenient restaurants open as well.
 
RyanB said:
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down? I really don’t believe it’s a supply and demand issue as some like to say it is.
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GA doesn't really play macroeconomics like that. At the end of the day, you've got a few thousand FBOs, each with a dude who has to stroke a $60,000 check to get his 8800 gallons of avgas and hope to get that money back eventually. Slowdown in sales just means he's stuck with that product longer, not that he's going to consult his supply and demand charts and make some sort of Milton Friedman calculations to maximize sales. The dude doing this is also the dude getting Karen'ed over a .1 hobbs discrepancy at the rental desk, or spraying the weeds at the runup area. :D
 
I'm in SE PA. Took the Cherokee out for some exercise this morning. Although I wouldn't say it was crazy busy, fair amount on traffic both on the airport and in the sky. 100LL at $7.5/gal. - OUCH!!
 
RyanB said:
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down? I really don’t believe it’s a supply and demand issue as some like to say it is.
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Usually supply increases to meet the new demand - but supply is constricted.

Also, slowing demand might just be the lever to bring the market to equilibrium now vs prices still rising to match the past demand.

Unfortunately, with constricted supply, prices are going to remain high.
 
Yeah - I'm putting my Commercial training on hold. Will fly monthly to keep IFR compliant.

I just saw what wife spent on groceries - not Whole Foods, but Target and Publix. I looked and saw what we're paying at the pump.

Yes, this is slowing down lots of things, including flying.
 
Now a days most of the traffic in my area is student training. Price of gas is affecting a lot of pilots. Pilots are starting to have a need to use the airplane other than the 100 dollar breakfast.
 
Decreased flying -increased fuel prices due to Putin's Price Hike, didn't you all get the memo?
 
WDD said:
Usually supply increases to meet the new demand - but supply is constricted.

Also, slowing demand might just be the lever to bring the market to equilibrium now vs prices still rising to match the past demand.

Unfortunately, with constricted supply, prices are going to remain high.
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U S refining capacity has declined over the last two years, mainly because Hurricane Ida flooded a refinery and the owner has chosen not to restart it. I read another article a while back where the financial guidance on refineries is to make profits, and not to invest in more capacity.
 
RyanB said:
My question is, if people are actually slowing their flying down because of fuel costs, why aren’t prices going down? I really don’t believe it’s a supply and demand issue as some like to say it is.
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I’m afraid that it’s not that simple. The first day of the current administration, the TransCanada pipeline project was shutdown and increased drilling restrictions were put into place in an effort to force us to electric cars and other so called cleaner alternatives. This has decreased crude supplies while demand has not significantly changed resulting in higher fuel prices. The demand for aviation fuel may be decreasing some, but with restricted supply of crude, the basic ingredient, prices increase. Simple as that. If I had decided to leave the Mooney in the hangar rather than flying it to Galveston, and others had joined me in that approach, the result would have been virtually immeasurable.

BTW, I paid $6.61 for 100LL in Galveston Tuesday and it has gone to $6.85 at my home field Mount Pleasant, Texas in far NorthEast Texas. Had I driven my wife’s Expedition, fuel cost would have been probably a little less than $100. The fuel bill when I filled up Tuesday was about $140. For me it was worth the extra $100 or so round trip to eliminate the 5 1/2 hour drive.
 
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FormerHangie said:
U S refining capacity has declined over the last two years, mainly because Hurricane Ida flooded a refinery and the owner has chosen not to restart it. I read another article a while back where the financial guidance on refineries is to make profits, and not to invest in more capacity.
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And no one ever built a new factory to make more profits. Right. And there are no headwinds to getting permission to build or any reason to believe that new capacity wouldn’t face hostile forces. Or that the price of crude couldn’t possibly be affected by the loss of US supply - loss caused by all of the headwinds against investment in drilling, etc.
 
I am still flying so far. I only been flying at dusk because it is smoother and not so hot. Nothing new for this time of year for me.
Yes fuel prices are making me re think my flights. So far I am still flying.

Yes I noticed less traffic but it happens every summer when it is this hot.

$6.73 gal here soon to be 7 something we are told. Our airport is the cheapest around right now which is not usually the case.

At the hangar now waiting for it to cool off a bit before I go get my fix for the day and crash some fireworks displays!!
 
Yes, no one will build a new refinery because the expense required to build it to meet EPA restrictions makes profit impossible. I don’t blame anyone for not investing money when no profit can be enjoyed.
 
I don’t believe COVID is the cause any longer, although many still like to hold onto that excuse. It’s a much different virus from what it was 24-36 months ago and society isn’t being crippled like it was before. Airlines are also seeing impressive demand. I tend to think there’s more to the story as to why we’re seeing these high fuel prices, but that’s best left for another thread.
 
RyanB said:
I don’t believe COVID is the cause any longer, although many still like to hold onto that excuse. It’s a much different virus from what it was 24-36 months ago and society isn’t being crippled like it was before. Airlines are also seeing impressive demand. I tend to think there’s more to the story as to why we’re seeing these high fuel prices, but that’s best left for another thread.
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When the 5 blind men tried to describe an elephant, they all had different descriptions. They were all correct, except they all though that their explanation was the correct one.

Sure,
Putin has had a huge effect.
And Covid has had a huge effect.

But also the entire "war on fossil fuels" is also a huge part of the reason. Why would any corporation invest billions in a hostile regulatory environment when they can make huge profits without that investment?
 
JOhnH said:
When the 5 blind men tried to describe an elephant, they all had different descriptions. They were all correct, except they all though that their explanation was the correct one.

Sure,
Putin has had a huge effect.
And Covid has had a huge effect.

But also the entire "war on fossil fuels" is also a huge part of the reason. Why would any corporation invest billions in a hostile regulatory environment when they can make huge profits without that investment?
Click to expand...
Fair enough.
 
The refinery close to here started shutting down before the covid hit. And the covid has actually delayed closing, but close it will. The owners claim it will cost too much to update to meet new EPA and other requirements. But it might be time, it first opened in the late '40s.

I had to drive to Carlsbad, NM a few weeks ago. Man, with all the traffic a person would never believe auto gas was 5 bucks a gallon. There was actually wait times to get to a gas pump. But I can understand the traffic since the covid pretty much stopped vacations for the last two summers.

100LL $7.48 according to a friend that gassed up today.
 
right now I am here
 

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Notable decrease in traffic at my field. Great weekend especially in the am to fly. And it’s crickets. Last year this time the pattern was teaming with guys just up practicing from our field and others.
 
WDD said:
And no one ever built a new factory to make more profits. Right. And there are no headwinds to getting permission to build or any reason to believe that new capacity wouldn’t face hostile forces. Or that the price of crude couldn’t possibly be affected by the loss of US supply - loss caused by all of the headwinds against investment in drilling, etc.
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MBDiagMan said:
Yes, no one will build a new refinery because the expense required to build it to meet EPA restrictions makes profit impossible. I don’t blame anyone for not investing money when no profit can be enjoyed.
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From the linked US EIA post:

Although U.S. refining capacity decreased in 2021, the number of operable refineries in the United States increased from 129 refineries to 130 refineries. Two new facilities came online in 2021, but a much larger refinery shut down. The new facilities are the Texas International Terminals facility in Galveston, Texas, where a 45,000 b/cd atmospheric distillation unit was built at a refined products terminal, and the Talley Asphalt Products facility in Kern, California, where a 1,700 b/cd distillation unit was reported as part of an asphalt plant.

The Phillips 66 refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, (also called the Alliance refinery) stopped refining operations following substantial flooding related to Hurricane Ida in late 2021. This refinery had an operating capacity of 255,600 b/cd.

Current crack spread is hanging around $50, a little more than double what is normal.
 
Zeldman said:
The refinery close to here started shutting down before the covid hit. And the covid has actually delayed closing, but close it will. The owners claim it will cost too much to update to meet new EPA and other requirements. But it might be time, it first opened in the late '40s.

I had to drive to Carlsbad, NM a few weeks ago. Man, with all the traffic a person would never believe auto gas was 5 bucks a gallon. There was actually wait times to get to a gas pump. But I can understand the traffic since the covid pretty much stopped vacations for the last two summers.

100LL $7.48 according to a friend that gassed up today.
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Back in May we drove to Pennsylvania to attend a graduation. I was very surprised to see the 18 wheelers still highballing it. I would have thought they'd have backed down to 65 mph like they did in other times of expensive diesel fuel.
 
FormerHangie said:
Back in May we drove to Pennsylvania to attend a graduation. I was very surprised to see the 18 wheelers still highballing it. I would have thought they'd have backed down to 65 mph like they did in other times of expensive diesel fuel.
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If you own your own rig and you pay for the fuel, then yeah, you might slow down to save fuel cost. But most drivers, like I was, are contract drivers. We got paid by the mile. The more miles we cover the more we earned. I didn't pay for fuel so my foot was generally on the floor.
edit: Driving a tractor trailer all over the country was fun for a year or two. But that job is the reason I returned to college. Long story there, but nobody wants to heat that.
 
MBDiagMan said:
I’m afraid that it’s not that simple. The first day of the current administration, the TransCanada pipeline project was shutdown...
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Keystone XL is the one shut down by the new administration. The TC pipeline is a separate fiasco up here in western Canada. Proceeding, but at obscene cost and with constant harassment.
 
Plane is still broken and I'm now hanging out in Michigan with the family. Happy 4th.
 
I flew across the Canadian Prairies today, total of 4 hours x-country and it was fairly busy for a day with less than ideal weather.
 
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