Great thread, I love posts and questions and discussions like this
Here's where I think Cessna is at; Cirrus has a better product. It is safer, faster, and more modern in appearance. The used market offers more value. That leaves Cessna duking it out with Piper for some training airplanes, and let's be honest, most FBOs are going to buy used, right?
Cirrus built something new and innovative, that doesn't just rely on a G1000 to "breath new life into it" (I cringe every time I see a Flying Mag article "XX breathes new life into a 70 year old design by changing the lights to LED and giving it a G1000!"). Cirrus did years of market research and built a product that fits the bill very nicely for what most people want (as proven by the sales figures). That is a comfortable interior, decently fast airplane, that looks and feels modern and is safe (hey it has a chute!). Yes, there are (some) planes that can do certain things better (new Moonies and TTx are faster... but they're smaller, no chute, etc.), there are planes that like back country flying, etc., but ultimately the Cirrus built something that is a very nice compromise.
In addition, they built a strong brand around it.. there is a whole Cirrus "swag" shop and the whole #Cirruslife, while oft ridiculed, is strong branding. There is no Piper or Cessna shop or #skyhawk life. The biggest thing, they bring aviation virgins into flying. I have brought people up in the Piper and the Skyhawk (including near new ones) and people aren't that impressed... it's like "oh cool, you're a pilot and we flew this crazy esoteric thing and didn't die".. when I bring virgins in the G5, they tell me "holy crap, this thing is nice! What do you need to fly it? How much are they to buy?" and on and on. Take a person who makes it big in their thirties, gets their license, and wants to buy their first plane. I can guarantee that just about all these people will be looking at Cirrus if they're buying new
So the question is; who is buying a BRAND NEW 172 or 182? Why would you possibly want to do that? The used market will give you so much more for your money. I know that is likely true many places, but seriously, who here would spend close to $400,000 for a 172?
I have no freaking idea. The fact that anyone would pay more than barely above used prices for what is effectively the same 1960s slow aluminum can POS is absolutely bonkers to me. "Hi, yes, I spent $400K to go 110 knots (or 135 knots in the 182, wow!) in a plane that, outside of Garmin's help, has had zero innovation since 1970" Don't get me wrong, a 172N or 182P, etc., are great rental planes and could make awesome planes for first time buyers. I have many fond hours in them. But expecting to pay $400K for one is like crudely jamming a TomTom GPS into a 1991 Suburban, giving it a swoopy paint scheme, and expecting it to go for Porsche Cayenne prices.
So you are now the CEO of Cessna; what's the plan? Do you try to breathe some life into the venerable 172 and 182 models (faster, sleeker, "new Mustang" feel, maybe a 'chute), or do you cease production and focus on your real moneymakers?
Let the brand die. Spin off a new brand (kind of like what Hyundai Genesis did). Don't abandon your base, there are some die hard high wing people out there and those who love the ruggedness of the 182, 206, 210, etc. Don't try to be Cirrus, be something else. I would:
-metal body for rugged (but composite wing) high wing singles with BRS as part of the plane from initial design point
-no RG, no prop control, ditch the vernier knobs once and for all
-onboard O2
-don't pretend to be luxury, give yourself a strong price advantage over Cirrus
-cultivate a brand image (okay, you're not Range Rover, big deal, maybe you can be an F150 or Explorer)
-give it 6 seats
-offer a few basic grim packages, IE, a basic model, a step model, and a top trim model.. give it a "bush" model, maybe with some added ground clearance, additional lift enhancing devices, maybe even a little survival pack built in or cooler... cheap gimmicky things that make you stand out)
-push for a 170 KTAS minimum KTAS for the higher end turbo models.., make it a great performer for short fields, slow flight, etc. Slats and flaps? Etc.
-use what you know from decades in the industry to save costs. There are well known Contis and Lycos out there, so that's a done deal. The G1000 is the standard, okay, and for the wings and frame composites aren't that new anymore and they have enough knowledge to design an airfoil.
^^in that approach, you probably wouldn't even have to take more than 20%-30% of Cirrus sales, if that even, but could pull a lot of new people in by offering something that has its own edge and talents, not just a Cirrus-copy-but-isn't-really-a-Cirrus
Cessna has been behind the innovation curve for awhile now. Products like the Skycatcher and soon to be released Denali are just unimpressive compared to the competition.
Yeah. I can't figure out what the Denali is trying to be. Seems like a waste. Honestly, Piper and Cessna have both given up innovating. Why would you buy a Denali vs a PC-12? What does the Denali offer that the PC-12 doesn't? Genuine question here. The Caravan is an obvious plane that fits a different role.. but the Denali?
Shutting down the TTx was dumb.
Yes. I think that was a very clear sign "we don't give a crap about the GA owner market. Big schools will buy our planes, and people can buy those used. We won't even pretend to cater to the higher end owner market with a fast plane. F off. But here is a $400K Skyhawk if you are dumb enough"
Shutting down the TTx was dumb. They should have added BRS and convinced people that it was better than Cirrus which it really was.
While I agree, I think the TTx didn't really fit the "Cessna" image or product lineup so marketing that and taking Cirrus' sales would have been hard. So the people who love the 182, 206, 210, etc., probably aren't the same people looking at TTx or Cirrus. Even if they're loaded they're buying those used. And if someone wants a fast low wing, they're going to be looking at Cirrus (or maybe Mooney, but in that case you can buy a fast Mooney for $100K, used).
What's tough for Cessna is that the 172 and 182 do their jobs REALLY well, so it's a hard plane to make better. The 172 makes an *excellent* trainer, and the 182 makes an excellent rugged slightly faster step up. To make those products "better" yet stay honest to their role and buyer pool is a hard bill to fit. Why I think letting them die altogether and offering something a little different (but has the same core talents) would be a shoe in. Build 6 seat metal fuselage, composite high wings, large door. I think that would sell like crazy.
As far as "safety" cirrus is not more or less "safe" that's on the pilots
THANK YOU. 100%. Quantitatively the parachute is always nice to have.. but at the end of the day it's up to the pilots to ensure safety