Weather? What are the chances?

It's weather.
The chances are always 2 to 1 against you.
Even worse if you actually believe the weather service.
 
Friday or Monday is looking better. Saturday is teeing up to be the worst for WX conditions across your route. With weather, Disney's Law (wishing will make it so) does not work. You can always evaluate on Saturday, but be prepared to delay. Time to spare, go by air...
 
If you can write the NTSB report ahead of time in your head, that's not a good sign. :)
 
View attachment 78762 Any chance to scoot up there Friday afternoon & evening??
No. I really wish there were, but a good friend that is battling cancer needs us to help her with several things on Friday. I'd rather die on Saturday than let her down on Friday.
We may be able to go up on Sunday and only lose one day's deposit on the hotel.

We will decide tomorrow, but if we don't cancel today, we lose one day's hotel deposit. Worse things have happened.
 
No. I really wish there were, but a good friend that is battling cancer needs us to help her with several things on Friday. I'd rather die on Saturday than let her down on Friday.
We may be able to go up on Sunday and only lose one day's deposit on the hotel.

We will decide tomorrow, but if we don't cancel today, we lose one day's hotel deposit. Worse things have happened.

After losing many times the deposit in the hotels we decided that it is not worth adding that pressure to our aviation decision-making process. There are many hotels available online at booking.com with last minute promotions ...
 
Cancel the hotel and go Sunday,why put undue pressure on yourself.
 
I'm putting storm lines on the boat and making sure the hangar door is secured.

Although compared to last year, this should be a walk in the park.
 
Hotel reservations are cheaper than airplanes. Airplanes are cheaper than people. Don't get confused by the price of cheap things.

That said, I rarely made hotel reservations in advance, and often made either the leg going, or coming, on a day other than planned. I also left the plane at an enroute city, and returned commercial once. Bad weather is not to be played with in our size aircraft.

I started with that attitude, and my first long cross country was canceled because the return trip weather was not going to be flyable. The next, converted to driving due to storms at the departure date. I never regretted those decisions.

Much later, I left at noon a day early to miss being in a potential violent storm POSSIBILITY, and got south of the area of danger the day before my original plan, spent the night in a junky motel in a tiny town. The next day, completed my trip, and in the afternoon, the predicted possible violent thunderstorms did occur, and an airliner flew into one, lost all the engines, and dead stick landing on a country road. They did not have any windshields, huge hail bounced all over inside the cockpit as they "flew" their glider out of the worst of the storm. Looking for a place to land without a windshield is tough.

That all took place at the time my original flight plan had me flying through that airspace, April 2, 1977. I am an old pilot, not a bold one.

The weather always wins.
 
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There is an app called ‘hotel tonight’ that specializes in last minute hotel deals. In any city that I have looked at there is always several options available.
 
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I'm putting storm lines on the boat and making sure the hangar door is secured.

Although compared to last year, this should be a walk in the park.

That is what I am telling my sister. She and her husband moved into their brand new house in PC about 3 weeks before Michael hit. They are just across the water from Tyndall AFB and the eye crossed over her house as a Cat 5. Today she sent me a screen shot from the day before that showed Michael's storm track and projecting a Cat 1 storm on the day before it hit.
It reminds me of the old song: "I went to bed with a number 10 and woke up with a number 1". She went to bed expecting a 1 and woke up with a 4.5 (later to be upgraded to 5).

Best of luck to you. I hope lighting doesn't strike you twice.
 
When you do your pre-flight planning-look for airports with rental cars available. Bad weather ahead? Put it down at a safe one and continue by roads. This is GA. Hazardous weather can really degrade enthusiasm for flying. Even yours.
 
Now that most of these hotels require 48 hr cancellation, I have booked multiple hotels on different days to cover all bases. Usually only need two different ones. Original, and a backup. More than 1 or 2 day delay, and I am going by some other method, or cancellation entirely.

Just looked at weather for Friday through Sunday. Looks like Sunday, you’ll be fighting some strong headwinds from the low off to your east as you fly north. To bad you couldn’t make it out early Friday.
 
Your highest responsibility as a pilot is to keep your passengers, yourself, and your airplane safe. If you start thinking that safety is expensive, try an accident. Blessings
 
If you aren’t already in the air, I think you’d better wait until Sunday.
 
Your highest responsibility as a pilot is to keep your passengers, yourself, and your airplane safe. If you start thinking that safety is expensive, try an accident. Blessings
Wise words.
 
Glad to see you beginning the cancelling of plans in Pittsburgh. The first band of pre-storm clouds and rain are moving through Gainesville, Florida now-Friday afternoon. I have been watching this storm for a couple of days so I can fine-tune my plans. It was slow to organize and is just starting to transit across the Gulf. Once the organized storm moves past you may have clear sailing.

If you want help with building a plan for when this thing will clear out, keep the tread going and I will share what is see.

R.
 
Glad to see you beginning the cancelling of plans in Pittsburgh. The first band of pre-storm clouds and rain are moving through Gainesville, Florida now-Friday afternoon. I have been watching this storm for a couple of days so I can fine-tune my plans. It was slow to organize and is just starting to transit across the Gulf. Once the organized storm moves past you may have clear sailing.

If you want help with building a plan for when this thing will clear out, keep the tread going and I will share what is see.

R.
Thanks.

And welcome to POA.
 
Hi Bill,

‘Scott Crossfield was a Legend! Started with NACA in 1950. Still flying at 84. That is impressive.

This storm is starting to come ashore with lots of water, broadly distributed, to my eye.

One of my favorites sources is your near-local paper. The Brevard Times routinely publishes ‘spaghetti maps’ with different computer projections of storm tracks.
 
JOhnH,

looks like Sunday should be good for your trip to Western, PA. The storm is moving through quickly. If you encounter clouds or turbulence you should be able to deviate west and get clear. I am flying that area Sunday and Monday. Best, R
 
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