Toyota is right about EVs after all...

[genna]

So I finally did it and got a PHEV(Chrysler Pacifica). Didn't start out looking for one, but with fed tax credits it was cheaper than equivalent gas car I was looking for. Used.

A few observations. I like the car. Pretty economical compared to gas car. Being an FCA product(my first), I'm not sure this is going to get me any savings in the long run as far as reliability, but what's done is done.

But
1. "Plug-in" part is like opening Pandora's box. Lots of decisions to make as far as house adaptation. Not all of them financially driven or even sound either. Nothing really costs a lot and there is a convenience factor, but payoff for L2 charger is long(on this car) and then there is a parking situation specific to me with cable length and multiple cars. Which brings me to point in the title:
2. I now fully understand Toyota's point and EV sales slump. EVs(and "plug-in" part of PHEV) currently are probably not worth the money for vast majority of people. Not enough delta between utility rates(i still have cheap electricity from a 2020 contract and it's not significantly cheaper than using gas) and gas prices to justify the extra cost and inconvenience. Hybrids do make sense if price is right.

In my case it's $.134/kwh. It takes $2.25(actual number - not guesstimate) to get full 0 to 100% charge to get max 32 EV range. Car gets about 30mpg(EPA 30 vs 22gas version) in gas/hybrid mode. So this is about 1G of gas. Lets say a bit more since first miles are probably less efficient. 1.5G. Gas is $3.20. Basically saving of about $2/30 miles. Or $800/12000 miles. Given EV price premium, that's pretty pathetic.

Adding his to clarify title

Toyota Chairman Says "People Are Finally Seeing Reality" Of EVs | Carscoops

Toyota's chairman, Akio Toyoda, has long denied that electric vehicles are the only way forward for the automotive industry, and now that the segment's growth is slowing, he says he told us so

www.carscoops.com

 

[PaulMillner]

So I finally did it and got a PHEV(Chrysler Pacifica). Didn't start out looking for one, but with fed tax credits it was cheaper than equivalent gas car I was looking for. Used.

A few observations. I like the car. Pretty economical compared to gas car. Being an FCA product(my first), I'm not sure this is going to get me any savings in the long run as far as reliability, but what's done is done.

But
1. "Plug-in" part is like opening Pandora's box. Lots of decisions to make as far as house adaptation. Not all of them financially driven or even sound either. Nothing really costs a lot and there is a convenience factor, but payoff for L2 charger is long(on this car) and then there is a parking situation specific to me with cable length and multiple cars. Which brings me to point in the title:
2. I now fully understand Toyota's point and EV sales slump. EVs(and "plug-in" part of PHEV) currently are probably not worth the money for vast majority of people. Not enough delta between utility rates(i still have cheap electricity from a 2020 contract and it's not significantly cheaper than using gas) and gas prices to justify the extra cost and inconvenience. Hybrids do make sense if price is right.

In my case it's $.134/kwh. It takes $2.25(actual number - not guesstimate) to get full 0 to 100% charge to get max 32 EV range. Car gets about 30mpg(EPA 30 vs 22gas version) in gas/hybrid mode. So this is about 1G of gas. Lets say a bit more since first miles are probably less efficient. 1.5G. Gas is $3.20. Basically saving of about $2/30 miles. Or $800/12000 miles. Given EV price premium, that's pretty pathetic.

Dunno if Toyota is right until we see the economics of their preferred hydrogen solutions…

Paul

 

[genna]

Dunno if Toyota is right until we see the economics of their preferred hydrogen solutions…

Paul

I don't think hydrogen solution will ever work, but that's not what i was referring to. Toyota was(although they are changing strategy now a bit) on record stating that EVs do not make sense and Hybrids are far better for most consumers.

Toyota Chairman Says "People Are Finally Seeing Reality" Of EVs | Carscoops

Toyota's chairman, Akio Toyoda, has long denied that electric vehicles are the only way forward for the automotive industry, and now that the segment's growth is slowing, he says he told us so

www.carscoops.com

 

[Jim K]

As a fellow Pacifica phev owner, I'm thinking of going the other way, full electric. Our new house is on a different electric supplier and we're now able to get realtime pricing. Electricity is 10-15 cents most of the time during the day, but at night drops to just 2-3, making it WAY cheaper to drive on electricity than gasoline by scheduling charging, which the Pacifica can do. Also, long term gas mileage for the Pacifica is more like 20-25, but I take your point, I also use the rule of thumb that the battery is roughly equivalent to a gallon of gas.

The thing that is great about phev's is the ability to take long trips without worrying about charging, but the airplane fills that role for us, and at could always rent a gas vehicle if we needed to.

I'm ready to go get a model Y tomorrow, but my wife wants to keep the sliding doors until the kids get a little older.

 

[Velocity173]

Well Toyota makes an BEV (ugly) so they’re in the market but I think they know their bread and butter is hybrids right now. Plus, there’s some reliability issues with EVs.
https://www.consumerreports.org/car...-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174/

 

[PaulMillner]

Hybrids are far better for most consumers.

Toyota Chairman Says "People Are Finally Seeing Reality" Of EVs | Carscoops

Toyota's chairman, Akio Toyoda, has long denied that electric vehicles are the only way forward for the automotive industry, and now that the segment's growth is slowing, he says he told us so

www.carscoops.com

Given that battery manufacturing capacity is likely a constraint for the next decade, and that 90% of daily use is within PHEV charge range, using those scarce batteries for PHEV instead of Teslas will reduce CO2 emissions 9x as much, compelling…

 

[Domenick]

I see the federal subsidy figured heavily into your decision. Would you have bought it without the taxpayer subsidy?

 

[Velocity173]

Also, don’t forget to subtract registration fees from gas savings for those states that have EV / hybrid fees. Next month I owe $213 on the Tesla for road tax.

 

[genna]

I see the federal subsidy figured heavily into your decision. Would you have bought it without the taxpayer subsidy?

Not a chance

 

[genna]

Just to be perfectly clear. I’m not against EVs. I’d seriously considered Tesla back in 2013. I’ve had a deposit on an EV. I think they work for many people with specific situations in use, costs, housing. But I think I’m a lot more average in such situations and I would never recoup cost of EV

 

[genna]

As a fellow Pacifica phev owner, I'm thinking of going the other way, full electric. Our new house is on a different electric supplier and we're now able to get realtime pricing. Electricity is 10-15 cents most of the time during the day, but at night drops to just 2-3, making it WAY cheaper to drive on electricity than gasoline by scheduling charging, which the Pacifica can do. Also, long term gas mileage for the Pacifica is more like 20-25, but I take your point, I also use the rule of thumb that the battery is roughly equivalent to a gallon of gas.

The thing that is great about phev's is the ability to take long trips without worrying about charging, but the airplane fills that role for us, and at could always rent a gas vehicle if we needed to.

I'm ready to go get a model Y tomorrow, but my wife wants to keep the sliding doors until the kids get a little older.

My 5yo loves the sliding door. LOVES it. It’s his favorite thing in the world now

If my electric rate was $.02, everything would be electrified

 

[Larry in TN]

EV sales slump.

What EV sales slump? "Slump" implies a decrease. EVs production continues to increase at double-digit rates and the best selling car in the world is an EV, the Tesla Model Y.

EV production was increasing at very high rates because very few were being produced. Now that a few million are being produced every year, of course the rate of increase will decrease. Interest rates have also increased significantly causing lower growth, and actual slumps, in ICE car sales.

Hybrids are very efficient, PHEVs even more so. They are an excellent choice for those who want efficiency but not an EV.

---------------
slump
/sləmp/
verb

• To decrease or fall suddenly and markedly, as prices or the market

 

[genna]

What EV sales slump? "Slump" implies a decrease. EVs production continues to increase at double-digit rates and the best selling car in the world is an EV, the Tesla Model Y.

EV production was increasing at very high rates because very few were being produced. Now that a few million are being produced every year, of course the rate of increase will decrease. Interest rates have also increased significantly causing lower growth, and actual slumps, in ICE car sales.

Hybrids are very efficient, PHEVs even more so. They are an excellent choice for those who want efficiency but not an EV.

---------------
slump
/sləmp/
verb

• To decrease or fall suddenly and markedly, as prices or the market

Note "as prices" example in your supplied definition. Tesla has quite dramatically slashed it's prices. This is pretty much why they are selling. They are still profitable. The others can't do it. They were losing money before, and slashing priced would only make things worse. At this point, most manufacturers are selling EVs at a loss, that's not sustainable and many of them are quite dramatically lowering production.

Now to statistics. Tesla in US 2023: Q2 175K cars, Q3 156K cars, Q4: 161K cars. That is hi, low, middle. Not exactly increasing. The rest is up/down a bit, but numbers are so low that i'm not sure it's statistically significant. Hyundai/Kia are doing well

 

[genna]

Here is another data point: Toyota sold 657K electrified vehicles(that's pretty much all hybrids or phev) in 2023. It's 29% of their sales. Their sales are on the rise

HEV/PHEV are growing at similar or higher rate to EV btw for 2022-2023 period and more than double the sales of EV

 

[Larry in TN]

Note "as prices" example in your supplied definition. Tesla has quite dramatically slashed it's prices.

Now to statistics. Tesla in US 2023: Q2 175K cars, Q3 156K cars, Q4: 161K cars. That is hi, low, middle. Not exactly increasing. The rest is up/down a bit, but numbers are so low that i'm not sure it's statistically significant. Hyundai/Kia are doing well

Tesla cut prices after having raised prices significantly during the pandemic. Legacy brands did the same thing through dealer market adjustments and changes to how much above, or below, MSRP they would sell a car. Tesla does not negotiate. All cars sell at MSRP. Tesla's long stated goal is to lower prices as much as possible to stimulate demand. This is consistent with what they have done going back over a decade. The Model S was originally introduced at around $200,000. It now starts $75,000.

Tesla has updating production lines for, first the Model S/X and then for the Model 3, which resulted in a few weeks of lost production for each upgrade. The Model Y update will be later this year. The trend is still growing. 2023 production (1.845 million) was 34.7% higher than 2022 (1.37 million). The next big increase, such as the one that started in mid-2022, will likely be next year as Cybertruck ramps followed by the introduction of the next generation model.

 

[SoonerAviator]

My Electric bill seems to average around $0.12-0.13/kWh. However, OK is also typically one of the cheaper states for auto fuel as well (regular grade fuel around $2.50/gal), so payback on an EV takes quite a bit over an equivalent ICE. Without heavy tax subsidies, it doesn't make much financial sense to spend the premium for a Tesla Model 3 ($40K) vs a Honda Accord Hybrid ($32K) or similar. Tough to eek out gains on electric savings vs a Hybrid (or even pure ICE) getting 40+mpg. That works out to something like $300-400/yr in fuel savings by going EV @ 12K miles/year. In a decade and a half it'll break even!

 

[genna]

Tesla cut prices after having raised prices significantly during the pandemic. Legacy brands did the same thing through dealer market adjustments and changes to how much above, or below, MSRP they would sell a car. Tesla does not negotiate. All cars sell at MSRP. Tesla's long stated goal is to lower prices as much as possible to stimulate demand. This is consistent with what they have done going back over a decade. The Model S was originally introduced at around $200,000. It now starts $75,000.

Tesla has updating production lines for, first the Model S/X and then for the Model 3, which resulted in a few weeks of lost production for each upgrade. The Model Y update will be later this year. The trend is still growing. 2023 production (1.845 million) was 34.7% higher than 2022 (1.37 million). The next big increase, such as the one that started in mid-2022, will likely be next year as Cybertruck ramps followed by the introduction of the next generation model.

View attachment 125703

So, world data manufacturing vs US sales. Not really same fruit. and only for a single manufacturer that is quickly losing market share. Most of the other manufacturers are scaling back their ev strategies.

Regardless, however you want to frame it, there is a significant slow down in(growth of) EV sales in US. This can certainly change. I'm just pointing out that for my situation in a very blue state it is not economically viable to get an EV(few months ago i thought otherwise)

 

[schmookeeg]

Why would you need an L2 charger for a 32mi range battery? I assume a 120V/15A L1 charges that overnight in appx 8 hours?

I've come close to the pacifica PHEV once or twice. I'm still in a Chrysler "never again" holding pattern. Hoping yours lasts long.

 

[Daleandee]

I'm still in a Chrysler "never again" holding pattern. Hoping yours lasts long.

 

[Racerx]

My 5yo loves the sliding door. LOVES it. It’s his favorite thing in the world now

If my electric rate was $.02, everything would be electrified

When I was his age I was enamored with crank windows. Prior to that they they were always electric.

Actually might still be enamored with the window crank as my Cherokee has the window crank style trim instead of trim wheel.

 

[genna]

Why would you need an L2 charger for a 32mi range battery? I assume a 120V/15A L1 charges that overnight in appx 8 hours?

I've come close to the pacifica PHEV once or twice. I'm still in a Chrysler "never again" holding pattern. Hoping yours lasts long.

Need… not need. But I’d like to have a wall charger. Supplied cable is 1. Too short, and 2. Pita.

If I’m going to do a wall charger, L2 part is not adding all that much money or complexity . Esp with rebates.

It’ll also add value for next house owner rather than annoyance if they have a say Tesla

It’s 12h on 120/15A

 

[genna]

Why would you need an L2 charger for a 32mi range battery? I assume a 120V/15A L1 charges that overnight in appx 8 hours?

I've come close to the pacifica PHEV once or twice. I'm still in a Chrysler "never again" holding pattern. Hoping yours lasts long.

Need… not need. But I’d like to have a wall charger. Supplied cable is 1. Too short, and 2. Pita.

If I’m going to do a wall charger, L2 part is not adding all that much money or complexity . Esp with rebates.

It’ll also add value for next house owner rather than annoyance if they have a say Tesla

It’s 12h on 120/15A

This is actually part of my next dilemma.

Car can only accept 32A. So L2 will be turned down and effectively 2x faster than L1. Cost-$500 ish minus maybe 250 in rebates. This will make it a bit more useful (such as plugging in during day)and slowly save a few bucks. Will also make some convenient features work.

Choice. Do that or forget the plug and use it as HEV

 

[GeorgeC]

While we were on vacation last year, we rented a "mild hybrid":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzuki_Grand_Vitara_(2022)

It was really slick. Integrated starter/generator, six speed manual. Tiny battery; 12V 6Ah. My electric lawnmower might have a bigger battery.

It was unintuitive at first- it has visual cues on when it thinks you should shift, which were always way lower rpm than when my ears told me to shift. Turns out, the electric motor helps out with the low end.

Cheap and cute, available in Europe but not here. Why?

 

[SoonerAviator]

While we were on vacation last year, we rented a "mild hybrid":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suzuki_Grand_Vitara_(2022)

It was really slick. Integrated starter/generator, six speed manual. Tiny battery; 12V 6Ah. My electric lawnmower might have a bigger battery.

It was unintuitive at first- it has visual cues on when it thinks you should shift, which were always way lower rpm than when my ears told me to shift. Turns out, the electric motor helps out with the low end.

Cheap and cute, available in Europe but not here. Why?

Probably because Suzuki has traditionally made terrible throw-away vehicles, and the US population still remembers them. Regarded as a small step above a GEO Metro/Tracker back in the early 90s, lol.

 

[Velocity173]

My Electric bill seems to average around $0.12-0.13/kWh. However, OK is also typically one of the cheaper states for auto fuel as well (regular grade fuel around $2.50/gal), so payback on an EV takes quite a bit over an equivalent ICE. Without heavy tax subsidies, it doesn't make much financial sense to spend the premium for a Tesla Model 3 ($40K) vs a Honda Accord Hybrid ($32K) or similar. Tough to eke out gains on electric savings vs a Hybrid (or even pure ICE) getting 40+mpg. That works out to something like $300-400/yr in fuel savings by going EV @ 12K miles/year. In a decade and a half it'll break even!

Don’t forget increased insurance and annual road tax on the Model 3. The Accord hybrid is around $1,900 annual premium while the Model 3 is around $2,600.

 

[Half Fast]

Cheap and cute, available in Europe but not here. Why?

Do you really need to ask that of a country enamored with muscle cars and huge pickup trucks? Can you get that Suzuki with a hemi V8 option?

 

[schmookeeg]

This is actually part of my next dilemma.

Car can only accept 32A. So L2 will be turned down and effectively 2x faster than L1. Cost-$500 ish minus maybe 250 in rebates. This will make it a bit more useful (such as plugging in during day)and slowly save a few bucks. Will also make some convenient features work.

Choice. Do that or forget the plug and use it as HEV

Welcome down the rabbit-hole.

For our first 2 EVs we used a L1 charger off of a plug on the porch. Worked great for about 3.5 years. I've had luck using a medium gauge (12ga?) 25' extension cord for it as well, but I know you're not supposed to do that and it's probably not an ideal daily solution.

Now we have a permanent 240V 50A circuit in the garage which nets 40A L2. The EV is a commuter so it gets 16 hours to charge. The L2 is arguably overkill, but like you, I wanted some future-proofing. Ours is a small battery with 120mi range, so it will zero-full in ~8 hours.

Now I'm looking at a second EV or PHEV so I'll probably want to bump that to a pair of 50A circuits. I could probably make the classic "while we're here..." argument and try to make the circuit 2x100A. I don't even think the whole house feed is 200A, so there is more thinking to be done.

Since you're in a cheap electricity area -- you might even look at those giant Qi-style inductive chargers they make for these. Park your car in its spot and it starts charging via a pad on the ground and a receiver on the undercarriage. One needs not even soil the lace at one's royal wrists by plugging a filthy connector into a flap. Psssh. Prole stuff.

 

[genna]

Welcome down the rabbit-hole.

For our first 2 EVs we used a L1 charger off of a plug on the porch. Worked great for about 3.5 years. I've had luck using a medium gauge (12ga?) 25' extension cord for it as well, but I know you're not supposed to do that and it's probably not an ideal daily solution.

Now we have a permanent 240V 50A circuit in the garage which nets 40A L2. The EV is a commuter so it gets 16 hours to charge. The L2 is arguably overkill, but like you, I wanted some future-proofing. Ours is a small battery with 120mi range, so it will zero-full in ~8 hours.

Now I'm looking at a second EV or PHEV so I'll probably want to bump that to a pair of 50A circuits. I could probably make the classic "while we're here..." argument and try to make the circuit 2x100A. I don't even think the whole house feed is 200A, so there is more thinking to be done.

Since you're in a cheap electricity area -- you might even look at those giant Qi-style inductive chargers they make for these. Park your car in its spot and it starts charging via a pad on the ground and a receiver on the undercarriage. One needs not even soil the lace at one's royal wrists by plugging a filthy connector into a flap. Psssh. Prole stuff.

RIGHT! The rabbit hole!.. Now I need a different house . I have a single car narrow garage and a 2 car driveway directly in front of it. Trash bins are typically in front of garage. Garage itself is used for MCs and all kinds of things(kids) but not cars. If van is the second car -- which is likely for it to be most of the time unless I shuffle cars all the time -- and charger is mounted on the wall, the 24' charger cable is really not quite enough to get from wall to van's port. It will reach, but everything would have to be tightly parked and nothing could come out of garage(kids stuff) unless cars are moved.

A pedestal could be a solution, but that's problematic for different reasons(infrastructure stuff right there) including cost.

 

[ElPaso Pilot]

Need… not need. But I’d like to have a wall charger. Supplied cable is 1. Too short, and 2. Pita.

If I’m going to do a wall charger, L2 part is not adding all that much money or complexity . Esp with rebates.

It’ll also add value for next house owner rather than annoyance if they have a say Tesla

It’s 12h on 120/15A

Agreed. Plus, for the PHEVs, if you've got 220V anywhere near the garage, used L2 chargers abound on Facebook/Craigslist, etc.

And you can add an extension cord to the business end as well.

J1772 Charger Extension Cord for sale | eBay

Get the best deals for J1772 Charger Extension Cord at eBay.com. We have a great online selection at the lowest prices with Fast & Free shipping on many items!

www.ebay.com

 

[SoonerAviator]

Don’t forget increased insurance and annual road tax on the Model 3. The Accord hybrid is around $1,900 annual premium while the Model 3 is around $2,600.

Annual road tax in OK for EVs is $110 I believe. Rounding error. But insurance premiums could very well be significantly different.

 

[GeorgeC]

Probably because Suzuki has traditionally made terrible throw-away vehicles, and the US population still remembers them. Regarded as a small step above a GEO Metro/Tracker back in the early 90s, lol.

I figure it can't be that bad if Toyota sells it under their name in some markets.

Do you really need to ask that of a country enamored with muscle cars and huge pickup trucks? Can you get that Suzuki with a hemi V8 option?

I don't know, there are a fair number of Honda Fits / Chevy (nee Daewoo) Sparks and other such itty bitty teeny weeny short short cars on the road...

 

[Half Fast]

....and other such itty bitty teeny weeny short short cars on the road...

Americanized teeny weeny short short automobile:

 

[Daleandee]

Years ago one of the company sales reps had a Geo Metro to drive. He said when he pushed in the cigarette lighter the thing would slow down ...

 

[Half Fast]

Years ago one of the company sales reps had a Geo Metro to drive. He said when he pushed in the cigarette lighter the thing would slow down ...

NOTICE - SMOKING ONLY PERMITTED WHEN DRIVING DOWNHILL.

 

[FORANE]

Americanized teeny weeny short short automobile:

View attachment 125715

I see your Americanized teeny weeny short short automobile and give you a shorter one.

 

[schmookeeg]

Americanized teeny weeny short short automobile:

View attachment 125715

Well that's an amusing deathcookie.

 

[genna]

Years ago one of the company sales reps had a Geo Metro to drive. He said when he pushed in the cigarette lighter the thing would slow down ...

Years ago I rented a “fast “ geo metro. The 4cyl version. Auto. The damn thing almost had me t-boned by a bus. Didn’t have enough power to cross Main Street in 2nd gear. Took too long to figure it out and even then could just barely get out of the way

 

[genna]

I figure it can't be that bad if Toyota sells it under their name in some markets.

I don't know, there are a fair number of Honda Fits / Chevy (nee Daewoo) Sparks and other such itty bitty teeny weeny short short cars on the road...

Fit hasn’t been for sale in US for a few years now. Same for that small Chevy (Spark?)

 

[Half Fast]

I see your Americanized teeny weeny short short automobile and give you a shorter one.View attachment 125716

Call.

 

[Larry in TN]

So, world data manufacturing vs US sales. Not really same fruit. and only for a single manufacturer that is quickly losing market share. Most of the other manufacturers are scaling back their ev strategies.

Most other manufacture's are several years behind Tesla and can't yet produce a comparable car for what it will cost them to make it. Tesla went through this point in their development over five years ago when they had no significant competition.

Tesla's market share is shrinking because they had nearly 100%. Of course it will shrink when competitors enter the market. How could it not?

All of the major manufactures are abandoning CCS1 in North America. Non-Tesla cars will come with the NACS next year. Reliable NACS charging will be a big boost to the non-Tesla models in the market. Interest rates returning to more normal levels will help them, too.

I pay $72.45/mo to insure my Tesla but I do have two young adults (21 & 23) on my insurance.