To mask or not to mask?

Status
Not open for further replies.
steingar said:
When you have influenza, you either think you are going to die or want to.
Click to expand...
So true. When I was young I hated having colds every winter. Then I came down with the flu once and suddenly colds weren't so bad. And although I've been fortunate enough to never experience it, from what I've read, once you survive malaria you come away from the experience thinking you know, the flu ain't so bad.

I had to travel for a conference for work last week. My wife came with me. It was a 3+ hour flight each way and we did not wear masks. While watching the news reports tonight I looked over and congratulated her on not dying from flying last week. Because she's a biologist, she was quick to remind me that its only been a week. I asked her what the gestation period was for the virus. She said she didn't know and quickly googled it. A few seconds later she said 'holy sh*t up to 28 days, that's going to be bad.'

So... nice knowing ya! :cheers:
 
simtech said:
Lets talk in 6 months or a year and see what the numbers say because I bet early on the Swine flu looked similar or there wouldn't have been mass hysteria associated with it.
Click to expand...

i’m ok with you winning :). To be honest, while I remember swine flu, I don’t remember this level of hysteria. I certainly don’t remember being much concerned about it.
 
genna said:
i’m ok with you winning :). To be honest, while I remember swine flu, I don’t remember this level of hysteria. I certainly don’t remember being much concerned about it.
Click to expand...

We're trusting (without reason) that the COVID spread will not spread widely throughout the US. And if it does, we're hoping that our advanced systems and technologies will save us from widespread infection. Assuming a conventional risk/reward matrix, I am concerned.
 
genna said:
i’m ok with you winning :). To be honest, while I remember swine flu, I don’t remember this level of hysteria. I certainly don’t remember being much concerned about it.
Click to expand...

JMHO, but not so much social media influence back then, and the associated need for conventional media to compete with 'clickbait' headlines. Throw in an election year and politicians on both sides looking to get a soundbite out there, it is a perfect storm. Panic and hysteria for all my friends!

Personally, I'm trying to seek out data and opinions from those that know who are not in some sort of government influenced position (yeah, I know, I quoted the CDC above :rolleyes:) so I can come to my own conclusions. Maybe I'm naive to think such a thing exists.

At least I have the fair and (mentally) balanced POA to fall back on. :D
 
catmandu said:
JMHO, but not so much social media influence back then, and the associated need for conventional media to compete with 'clickbait' headlines. Throw in an election year and politicians on both sides looking to get a soundbite out there, it is a perfect storm. Panic and hysteria for all my friends!

Personally, I'm trying to seek out data and opinions from those that know who are not in some sort of government influenced position (yeah, I know, I quoted the CDC above :rolleyes:) so I can come to my own conclusions. Maybe I'm naive to think such a thing exists.

At least I have the fair and (mentally) balanced POA to fall back on. :D
Click to expand...



Took the words straight out of my mouth. Good read on all this hysteria stupidity.

We need to start holding the media accountable. Their hype and dramatization has become rampant, and is detrimental to the well being of our society. I'm not for censorship, but there needs to be penalties for those who produce and disseminate fake or misleading news. This corona scare is a perfect example of media hype that needs to be curbed.
 
denverpilot said:
You expect governments to free flow information? That would be a new and novel thing, that would lead to their demise.

Going to go with “Things that are never going to happen” for $500, Alex.
Click to expand...
Actually, I would prefer that government get out of the way and let us get our information from the source. But hey, that's just me.
 
It has been said that a mask worn by a sick person does a better job of protecting the public than the public wearing masks to protect themselves from a sick person...….. so, if you are wearing a mask and people stay away from you, then that is a win.
 
Well then, more POA sourcing of . . . facts?

I did a really quick research project. Since I am AARP eligible, I was curious about fatality rate by age. Found some data reported for Covid-19. That got me thinking: what is the everyday fatality rate by age? 2017 data came up on a quick search. <EDIT: more acurately compiled the everyday data linked above> Compare:

Age..........Covid-19 rate.......Everyday rate
10-20..............0.2%................0.1%
20-30..............0.2%................0.1%
30-40..............0.3%................0.1%
40-50..............0.5%................0.3%
50-60 (ME!).......1.3%................0.6%
60-70..............3.6%................1.2%
70-80..............8.0%................2.9%

Looks like I need to visit the fountain of youth, and I'm good to go!

It is what it is, but there it is. Make up your own mind. Me, I'll wash my hands a lot (Flu season, ya'll!) and then I'm going maskless in the aluminum tube to rendezvous with M'lady for a (paid, for her) two night, one day stay away from home. Giggity giggity.
 
Last edited:
catmandu said:
Well then, more POA sourcing of . . . facts?

I did a really quick research project. Since I am AARP eligible, I was curious about fatality rate by age.
Click to expand...

Doesn't that data show that IF you catch the virus and you're in the 50-60 age group, you've got a 1.3% chance of it killing you. But for every year you're alive (while in that age range) you have a 1.2% chance of being renamed "Mort"?
 
kyleb said:
Doesn't that data show that IF you catch the virus and you're in the 50-60 age group, you've got a 1.3% chance of it killing you. But for every year you're alive (while in that age range) you have a 1.2% chance of being renamed "Mort"?
Click to expand...

I know, I'm comparing apples to koalas, I know nothing about statistics, frankly don't totally know if your question is supporting or contradicting my exhaustive (10 minute) research. But my little chart does give me a warm fuzzy. More knowledgeable folks, feel free to fire away.
 
catmandu said:
Well then, more POA sourcing of . . . facts?

I did a really quick research project. Since I am AARP eligible, I was curious about fatality rate by age. Found some data reported for Covid-19. That got me thinking: what is the everyday fatality rate by age? 2017 data came up on a quick search. Compare:

Age..........Covid-19 rate.......Everyday rate
10-20..............0.2%................0.2%
20-30..............0.2%................0.2%
30-40..............0.3%................0.2%
40-50..............0.5%................0.4%
50-60 (ME!).......1.3%................1.2%
60-70..............3.6%................2.6%
70-80..............8.0%................4.3%

Looks like I need to visit the fountain of youth, and I'm good to go!

It is what it is, but there it is. Make up your own mind. Me, I'll wash my hands a lot (Flu season, ya'll!) and then I'm going maskless in the aluminum tube to rendezvous with M'lady for a (paid, for her) two night, one day stay away from home. Giggity giggity.
Click to expand...

I had a nasty cold that ended a month or two ago, a crappy cough for about 4 weeks. I'm pretty healthy, but I'm thinking that same cold in an elderly or immune suppressed person would be pretty bad. There's a lot of hype around this illness, time will tell how much of it is true. I'm in the same group as you.
 
catmandu said:
I know, I'm comparing apples to koalas, I know nothing about statistics, frankly don't totally know if your question is supporting or contradicting my exhaustive (10 minute) research. But my little chart does give me a warm fuzzy. More knowledgeable folks, feel free to fire away.
Click to expand...

I'm neither criticizing or defending you doctoral thesis. I only seek to understand.
 
biplanebob said:
It has been said that a mask worn by a sick person does a better job of protecting the public than the public wearing masks to protect themselves from a sick person
Click to expand...

And saves millions of masks...


I'll just take my shoes off in flight and everyone will cover their mouth and nose very quickly.
 
catmandu said:
Well then, more POA sourcing of . . . facts?

I did a really quick research project. Since I am AARP eligible, I was curious about fatality rate by age. Found some data reported for Covid-19. That got me thinking: what is the everyday fatality rate by age? 2017 data came up on a quick search. Compare:

Age..........Covid-19 rate.......Everyday rate
10-20..............0.2%................0.2%
20-30..............0.2%................0.2%
30-40..............0.3%................0.2%
40-50..............0.5%................0.4%
50-60 (ME!).......1.3%................1.2%
60-70..............3.6%................2.6%
70-80..............8.0%................4.3%

Looks like I need to visit the fountain of youth, and I'm good to go!

It is what it is, but there it is. Make up your own mind. Me, I'll wash my hands a lot (Flu season, ya'll!) and then I'm going maskless in the aluminum tube to rendezvous with M'lady for a (paid, for her) two night, one day stay away from home. Giggity giggity.
Click to expand...

It seems to me that you just added the rates of men and women from multiple age groups together to arrive at your numbers: (example: 10-14 + 15-19, men+ women to get 10-19 total). I don't think this is how statistics work :). You need to know age population distribution to do that and it's not a simple addition(it's more like average weighted by distribution). If you just add rates together like that you will quickly get more than 100% mortality rate :)
 
genna said:
It seems to me that you just added the rates of men and women from multiple age groups together to arrive at your numbers: (example: 10-14 + 15-19, men+ women to get 10-19 total). I don't think this is how statistics work :). You need to know age population distribution to do that and it's not a simple addition(it's more like average weighted by distribution). If you just add rates together like that you will quickly get more than 100% mortality rate :)
Click to expand...

Okay, trouble finding total world population data that matches the decade report of the Covid-19, but updated the chart after a night of sleep to average rates, although not weighted. Makes it not so equal.

Wait, didn't I just pay tuition for someone taking a 400 level Statistics course? What the sam heck am I doing trying to do this on my own. :p
 
Last edited:
We have a case in our town here in Germany now. He is in isolation. I’m not really worried. He got it in Italy. If it’s my time to go, it’s my time to go.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
looks like more cases in California are popping up.....:confused:
Click to expand...
One is in Solano County (home of Travis AFB where many of the Diamond Princess are quarantined). That patient is now in isolation at University of California-Davis; she wasn't tested for days after checking into a hospital in Solano County because she had no known exposure to Covid-19. Many in the hospital were exposed to her before she was transferred to UCD Medical Center where she tested positive. Six passengers on the Diamond Princess have now died from the infection.

A second case is in Santa Clara, the heart of Silicon Valley, where the patient had no known exposure. There are also new cases in Oregon and Washington.

This morning's San Francisco Chronicle has an AP article saying Iran has experienced a spike in infections:
On Friday, Health Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour again reported a huge spike in cases, saying there were now 388 confirmed coronavirus cases in Iran and 34 deaths.
Click to expand...

That's approaching a 10% fatality rate, and it's possible the Iranians are under reporting the size of the problem there.

EDIT - An article in the Washington Post this morning (I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn’t that bad.) is a first hand account from one of the passengers on the Diamond Princess who is in his sixties and describes his experience in quarantine and the treatment he was given. I'm becoming more optimistic.
 
Last edited:
These things only kill the poor and weak, you’ll be aiight

Anyone also notice this conveniently took the media attention off the Hong Kong protests against the [no doubt poorly made ;) ] chinese communist iron fist, as well as getting EVERYONE, like protestors, off the streets and public places?

I’m mean I’m not not saying china would kill tons of their own people to silence them...again
 
Last edited:
Stan Cooper said:
One is in Solano County (home of Travis AFB where many of the Diamond Princess are quarantined). That patient is now in isolation at University of California-Davis; she wasn't tested for days after checking into a hospital in Solano County because she had no known exposure to Covid-19. Many in the hospital were exposed to her before she was transferred to UCD Medical Center where she tested positive. Six passengers on the Diamond Princess have now died from the infection.

A second case is in Santa Clara, the heart of Silicon Valley, where the patient had no known exposure. There are also new cases in Oregon and Washington.

This morning's San Francisco Chronicle has an AP article saying Iran has experienced a spike in infections:


That's approaching a 10% fatality rate, and it's possible the Iranians are under reporting the size of the problem there.

EDIT - An article in the Washington Post this morning (I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn’t that bad.) is a first hand account from one of the passengers on the Diamond Princess who is in his sixties and describes his experience in quarantine and the treatment he was given. I'm becoming more optimistic.
Click to expand...


Years ago, back in my college days, I had a part time job working at a large grocery store as a stock boy. One of my buddies, and fellow stock boy, asked a few of us stockers if we'd like to play a game. Of course, we all said yes. This was intended only as a prank. As it turns out, it was a very educational and valuable lesson in human behavior.

There was a young man working in the produce department. He was a little older than most of us, a moma's boy still living at home, and quite frankly, a little bossy. The bossy part was what earned him our attention.

Earlier that morning he got under the skin of my buddy, and it was time to get even. It was all in good fun, and was nothing out of the ordinary for our little gang. This prank was nothing compared to some of the things that we inflicted on each other.

Each time we moved pallets of product from the back room out to the sales floor, we needed to go through the produce department where this guy worked. Back and forth all morning long. Our assigned task was to tell our victim that we thought he looked a little run down, maybe a little peeked, and we asked if he was ok. Next trip through, are you sick, or feeling ok, you don't look right. When's the last time you saw a doctor, etc........

Less than two hours later, he went home sick. And there was NOTHING wrong with him.

This Corona Virus crap, and the hype placed on it by the media only serves to remind me of what we were able to do, back in the day, by simple suggestion.

Wise up people. You are being manipulated by the media...... again. Don't be a stupid sheeple like the Produce boy.
 
There seem to be a lot of people on both sides of this debate who think they know how this is going to turn out. Personally, I'm in wait-and-see mode.
 
If I was so fearful of being outside that I was thinking I might need to wear a mask...... just shoot me.

I only worried when the med crew got out of the ambulance wearing NBC suits....and came up to me saying I needed to suit up.
 
Art Rose said:
Years ago, back in my college days, I had a part time job working at a large grocery store as a stock boy. One of my buddies, and fellow stock boy, asked a few of us stockers if we'd like to play a game. Of course, we all said yes. This was intended only as a prank. As it turns out, it was a very educational and valuable lesson in human behavior.

There was a young man working in the produce department. He was a little older than most of us, a moma's boy still living at home, and quite frankly, a little bossy. The bossy part was what earned him our attention.

Earlier that morning he got under the skin of my buddy, and it was time to get even. It was all in good fun, and was nothing out of the ordinary for our little gang. This prank was nothing compared to some of the things that we inflicted on each other.

Each time we moved pallets of product from the back room out to the sales floor, we needed to go through the produce department where this guy worked. Back and forth all morning long. Our assigned task was to tell our victim that we thought he looked a little run down, maybe a little peeked, and we asked if he was ok. Next trip through, are you sick, or feeling ok, you don't look right. When's the last time you saw a doctor, etc........

Less than two hours later, he went home sick. And there was NOTHING wrong with him.

This Corona Virus crap, and the hype placed on it by the media only serves to remind me of what we were able to do, back in the day, by simple suggestion.

Wise up people. You are being manipulated by the media...... again. Don't be a stupid sheeple like the Produce boy.
Click to expand...
There was a Doctor Who episode that used the same premise on the Prime Minister.
 
If there were a malaria pan epidemic all the spray planes in the world would be up knocking the vector "mosquitos" out of the air to control the spread. We have thousands of aluminum vectors continuing to spread the virus and people wonder why the outbreak is spreading. Shut down air travel for several weeks. The cost will be high economically but probable no more than the medical cost of treating the sick. This would allow time for identification of carriers' contacts and slow the spread.
 
murphey said:
There was a Doctor Who episode that used the same premise on the Prime Minister.
Click to expand...

Tangent: I may be misinterpreting what you wrote, Murphey, but The Doctor used that _against_ the Prime Minister, to get people to question her health, abilities, and effectiveness and drive her from office. Not so much to directly mess with the Prime Minister's self-perception.
 
James331 said:
These things only kill the poor and weak, you’ll be aiight

Anyone also notice this conveniently took the media attention off the Hong Kong protests against the [no doubt poorly made ;) ] chinese communist iron fist, as well as getting EVERYONE, like protestors, off the streets and public places?

I’m mean I’m not not saying china would kill tons of their own people to silence them...again
Click to expand...
Wuhan isn't near Hong Kong.
It really didn't take much media attention off, as I heard of them protesting that the Hong Kong/ China border wasn't closed (this was some weeks ago). More recently, they were protesting around Mong Kok- this caught my eye as I was there just before the virus broke out in China.
Yesterday's news: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ad-protesters-return-to-streets-idUSKBN20N0MQ
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top