This is the Golden Age of Aviation

steingar

steingar

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steingar
Folks complain about the cost of GA, and how expensive it is compared to yesteryear. I call BS on all of it. Yes, a brand new airplane is far more expensive than they were in yesteryear. But the pilots of yesteryear didn't have access to the vintage fleet we do. Purchasing a pre owned vintage aircraft is far less expensive than a new airplane of yesteryear, and the ownership experience is likely to be about as expensive. You can purchase a preowned vehicle, restore it to like new condition and put in a glass panel (not available to the pilots of yesteryear) and have spent proportionately about what a new airplane cost in days gone by.

This is the Golden Age of Aviation, we're just too stupid to realize it.
 
Kinda true. At least for GA recreational flying.

The golden age is usually something people refer to for commercial aviation though, and that was over quite a while back for passengers.

However the good news is, you won’t have nearly as big a chance of dying even if they don’t serve a nice steak dinner anymore. LOL.

Of course we still soft pedal the safety briefing and shouldn’t. LOL

 
It could be if the pool of people in the US with the resources to enjoy it wasn't dwindling. Seems like most of the expensive hobbies, flying, sailing, skiing are all facing the same problem with keeping up their numbers.
 
OK...I'll take the counterpoint, for argument's sake. General aviation is a mess. Owning an airplane has never been more out of reach in the 50 years I've been flying. Due to insurance and liability, as well as an infinitely complex set of rules, an autocratic FAA, an exclusionary, restrictive, and incredibly complex medical branch, a poorly aging GA fleet, and a rather extraordinary accident rate, I'd say that General Aviation has never been in worse shape.
 
MacFly said:
OK...I'll take the counterpoint, for argument's sake. General aviation is a mess. Owning an airplane has never been more out of reach in the 50 years I've been flying. Due to insurance and liability, as well as an infinitely complex set of rules, an autocratic FAA, an exclusionary, restrictive, and incredibly complex medical branch, a poorly aging GA fleet, and a rather extraordinary accident rate, I'd say that General Aviation has never been in worse shape.
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Source for “extraordinary accident rate”?

None of the data I have here indicates any such thing.
 
denverpilot said:
Source for “extraordinary accident rate”?

None of the data I have here indicates any such thing.
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Compared to what?

US scheduled airlines? We’re abysmally poor. First time chainsaw users? Probably pretty good. GA 20 years ago? Better.

Only one really matters, I think.
 
DaleB said:
Compared to what?

US scheduled airlines? We’re abysmally poor. First time chainsaw users? Probably pretty good. GA 20 years ago? Better.

Only one really matters, I think.
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Well we are talking about GA, last I checked.

Comparing to commercial service is completely silly. Couldn’t care less about chainsaw users, buy some chaps.
 
MacFly said:
OK...I'll take the counterpoint, for argument's sake. General aviation is a mess. Owning an airplane has never been more out of reach in the 50 years I've been flying. Due to insurance and liability, as well as an infinitely complex set of rules, an autocratic FAA, an exclusionary, restrictive, and incredibly complex medical branch, a poorly aging GA fleet, and a rather extraordinary accident rate, I'd say that General Aviation has never been in worse shape.
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Insurance is less on my plane than my truck. Its only complex for the simple minded. Its pretty damn straightforward other than the minutiae.
 
steingar said:
Folks complain about the cost of GA, and how expensive it is compared to yesteryear. I call BS on all of it. This is the Golden Age of Aviation, we're just too stupid to realize it.
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Agreed! From my standpoint it couldn't have been better. I learned to fly ultralights, learned to do some aircraft repairs, and then built my own airplane! Training was fun and not overly expensive as I managed the cost. People can be negative sometimes and make excuses for why they don't succeed but I grew up learning that if you wanted something bad enough you worked hard and got it.

If there's a downside now it seems to be in the area of instruction. I have a couple of friends that are looking for ultralight/light sport training but they are having some difficulty locating a quality instructor. Personally I haven't had any issue finding training but I'm willing to go where I need to go and do what needs to be done to get where I want to be.

Could General Aviation be made better? Of course! Is is horrible now? Absolutely not! One day we will look back and say, "them were the good old days!"
 
Ok, so what was the number of people “back then” that could/would become pilots and then owners? Any guesses? I have no idea who could but didn’t. Was it because of affordability?

How about now? What is the number of people that could become pilots and then owners? Any guesses? I have no idea who could but don’t because of affordability. I see plenty of people who drive $50k+ cars, and live in $250k+ homes that could afford a plane if they wanted to.

My opinion: there’s just more crap to waste time & money on nowadays than a stupid flying machine. Simple. And that’s before you get into any discussion about generational fortitude.
 
denverpilot said:
Well we are talking about GA, last I checked.

Comparing to commercial service is completely silly. Couldn’t care less about chainsaw users, buy some chaps.
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That was kind of my point.
 
MacFly said:
OK...I'll take the counterpoint, for argument's sake. General aviation is a mess. Owning an airplane has never been more out of reach in the 50 years I've been flying. Due to insurance and liability, as well as an infinitely complex set of rules, an autocratic FAA, an exclusionary, restrictive, and incredibly complex medical branch, a poorly aging GA fleet, and a rather extraordinary accident rate, I'd say that General Aviation has never been in worse shape.
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I’ll toss in the sorry state of airport infrastructure near major cities. I’d have bought a plane last year but the idea of leaving a $100k plus asset sitting tied down on a ramp while I wait 3 years for a hangar is just not going to happen. In any business if you had a 3 year backlog for something you could build for $25k and rent for $500 a month investors would be all over it. Build more damn hangars folks. If you build it they will come.
 
Pugs said:
I’ll toss in the sorry state of airport infrastructure near major cities. I’d have bought a plane last year but the idea of leaving a $100k plus asset sitting tied down on a ramp while I wait 3 years for a hangar is just not going to happen. In any business if you had a 3 year backlog for something you could build for $25k and rent for $500 a month investors would be all over it. Build more damn hangars folks. If you build it they will come.
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The problem is ROI. We've run the numbers here before. If you want to build a 10 unit T-Hangar and amortize it over 10 years, as most business investments do, you would have to charge $370 a month. Our current hangars lease for around $150, and pilots threaten to burn the airport down if you discuss raising rent. Honestly per square foot, T-Hangars are about the cheapest storage you can lease, but pilots complain about the cost.

Find me a pilot that wants to pay $500 per month for a hangar.
 
No one wants to pay $500 a month But that’s the going rate at Montgomery County and Frederick County MD where I fly out of and both have multi-year waits. I was just up in Laconia NH and an unheated T is $400 but they are available. so I suspect (sans data) that $400-$500 a month is not atypical for many areas.
 
Pugs said:
No one wants to pay $500 a month But that’s the going rate at Montgomery County and Frederick County MD where I fly out of and both have multi-year waits. I was just up in Laconia NH and an unheated T is $400 but they are available. so I suspect (sans data) that $400-$500 a month is not atypical for many areas.
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In Iowa $100-150 is most typical, might bump up to $200 in the bigger cities. $400 and you'd have a bunch of empty hangars. Granted our population density is much less than east coast/west coast states.
 
Gonna have to disagree. GA is dying. Pilot numbers are down, the fleet is dwindling, expenses are through the roof.

How is it that a vintage plane is less expensive now than it was when it was new? I’m not following. Your $75,000, 50 year old Cessna 172 cost $12,000 new (or whatever). Even if that growth in value didn’t outpace inflation (it does), when you bought it new it was... *new*! Now you’re talking about a 50 year old plane. Sure, new ones have more technology, but they’re $450,000! Run that inflation rate...

There are fewer pilots, fewer airports, fewer middle class or better as a percentage of the population, fewer models in production, fewer planes being produced, more regulation, more expense, more insurance problems and more liability.

Sure, we get fancier technology and the “opportunity” to buy old, vintage planes, but GA’s golden age? Mmmm... I don’t think so.
 
So, you’re saying that in the eighties we didn’t have used planes as an alternative to new? Are you saying that rental rates, instructor rates were not significantly less than today?

I started flying in 1992 in an Aeronca Champ. $25 wet and $15 for the instructor. MANY nice used GA planes could be purchased for under $20K. Sure, a dollar went farther then, but even allowing for inflation it was no more expensive then than now and I even contend that it was less expensive.

Additionally, it is only anecdotal, but for me there was more GA traffic to contend with in the nineties than I deal with today. This is only my personal experience so it might Not be true in the aggregate.
 
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midwestpa24 said:
The problem is ROI. We've run the numbers here before. If you want to build a 10 unit T-Hangar and amortize it over 10 years, as most business investments do, you would have to charge $370 a month. Our current hangars lease for around $150, and pilots threaten to burn the airport down if you discuss raising rent. Honestly per square foot, T-Hangars are about the cheapest storage you can lease, but pilots complain about the cost.

Find me a pilot that wants to pay $500 per month for a hangar.
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Great point until the last sentence. Hangar’s are so scarce in my area, there are people who would GLADLY pay $500 for a fully enclosed hangar. I am SO fortunate to have a 65 x 60 insulated hangar with a restroom for $650 and would pay twice that if I had to.
 
Are hangars more in demand now than they were in the past? Is is that because of less hangar supply or more hangar demand? Is that a clue to whether GA is more or less active today than yesterday?
 
Pugs said:
I’ll toss in the sorry state of airport infrastructure near major cities. I’d have bought a plane last year but the idea of leaving a $100k plus asset sitting tied down on a ramp while I wait 3 years for a hangar is just not going to happen. In any business if you had a 3 year backlog for something you could build for $25k and rent for $500 a month investors would be all over it. Build more damn hangars folks. If you build it they will come.
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Not sure if this is the golden age of aviation as far as the general population goes. The golden age of aviation, to me means,a new adventure and everyone is fascinated by the wonders of flight. That's is not today how the population in general looks at aviation. Personally I really enjoy flying and dreamed of flying as a kid. Got my PPL at 37 and bought my plane 1 year later. Not an especially expensive or popular plane but it's mine.To me it's the golden age of aviation because I am living my dream.

As far as hangar rental goes I have paid $400/mo for the past 2 years. My plane is worth 25 to 30K depending, I think I'm going back to the tie down before winter. The hangar is great and I enjoy the benefits of working in a heated hangar are great. It's hard to justify spending $4800/yr on a $30K plane

Have a good one wheels up in 30min.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Are hangars more in demand now than they were in the past? Is is that because of less hangar supply or more hangar demand? Is that a clue to whether GA is more or less active today than yesterday?
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A few hundred dollars to protect a hundred thousand dollar asset that costs thousands to repair even minor damage. The combination of the cost of repairs on these old planes and the age of the plane makes hangars a better value today
 
Salty said:
A few hundred dollars to protect a hundred thousand dollar asset that costs thousands to repair even minor damage. The combination of the cost of repairs on these old planes and the age of the plane makes hangars a better value today
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Makes sense. Even though you could insure for damage, the depreciation from weather is something you can’t get back.
 
Here are two things that are better today than 30-40 years ago:
(1) The Internet... you can pull up weather forecasts, flight planning tools, FBO information on your computer/phone/iPad. No more calling Flight Service and talking through material that could be digested better graphically;
(2) Weather forecasts... today's weather models plus new satellite technology means that 7-day forecasts actually have a pretty good predictive ability, and 3-day forecasts are usually quite accurate. That's a lot better than it used to be.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
The Internet... you can pull up weather forecasts, flight planning tools, FBO information on your computer/phone/iPa
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....but you cannot use foreflight at 9,500' to see what everyone else thinks about the color of the walls in the bathroom at some random FBO!! The HORRORS!!! :rolleyes:
 
I'll bet the folks who own PA-28's and PA-32's are a little uncomfortable with the way the GA fleet is aging.
 
I think life is the process of enjoying oneself within the environment and constraints that present themselves, no individual has enough control for it to be otherwise and there are a million interacting factors in parallel. Life is making the best of what comes along. The US GA environment today provides a large number of planes, available at decreasing real world cost. Hangars are available, landing fees are zero, gas is affordable, avionics and especially portable avionics allow a cheap plane to navigate like nothing before. Some of those many planes are worn out, some of them have been cherished by their owners for decades and are as good or better than new. Who cares about ‘the fleet’ and ‘the (imagined) future of GA’ when right now, today, many people can if they wish look around and find a nice plane, buy it and enjoy it. The fact that others may not want to do that because they love their phone, disposable new car etc is a good thing from that point of view. Live your life, enjoy what opportunities present themselves, and don’t worry about what others may choose.

That’s what America is all about, says the immigrant who loves it for exactly that reason. We don’t live in a commune where the direction for one is the direction for all. Today is the golden age of US GA for me and others, right now. I’d suggest enjoying the GA environment we’re lucky to have, right now.
 
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Hmm. I guess I'm mostly optimistic about GA. GA aircraft, used or otherwise, have always been expensive, even in constant dollars. Gas prices seem high but in constant dollars not really that different than 30 years ago. Safety? GA accident data is much better now than when I started flying. In addition, today's GA pilots have more access to safety-enhancing equipment that ever before. When I started flying, we didn't use headsets to protect our hearing, and all we had for communication and data (data?) was crappy ARC or Narco radios (that weren't all that new THEN). First LORAN (game-changer for precision navigation) and now GPS with precision-guidance approaches into rural airports, plus the ability to get in-flight weather data (even if it is drinking data through a narrow straw). Insurance rates? Cheaper than my car! (Still. just renewed for next year with only a $90 increase in a rough insurance market.) I'd say in many ways, it's never been better for GA.

What HAS changed for the worse is that many airports have regrettably closed. Permanently. We used to have 3 public use airports in our rural county, all with busy maintenance facilities. My home airport is now the only one left, and it is doing OK, but financially challenging to operate. And while technology has dramatically changed GA, it is very expensive to install and maintain. The FAA mandate for ADS-B out didn't help, even if it does bring some (theoretical for now) benefits. (On the other hand, ADS-B in is a real benefit. I won't go back to the crappy ARC and Narco radios.) The GA fleet is aging, and that does present annoying, if mostly minor maintenance issues. My plane is over 40 years old now. While it has a relatively new engine, interior, and avionics, the airframe is a constant battle with little niggling things like cracking plastic and fiberglass parts, plenty of metal patches, oversize or stripped screw holes (just encountered that issue while changing a light bulb) loose baffles, degrading fuel tank sealant, etc. It seems like every time you fix one little thing, you discover two other little things to address.

But all in all, I think it is much better today than when I trained and built my first few hundred hours.
 
The history books of tomorrow will call us all "elitist". And future generations will wonder how anyone could ever have been so selfish as to extract oil from the ground, then burn its byproducts in wasteful, inefficient, internal combustion engines, fouling the air and poisoning everyone, for the benefit of a few entitled individuals. Enjoy it now, while its still legal.
 
wilkersk said:
The history books of tomorrow will call us all "elitist". And future generations will wonder how anyone could ever have been so selfish as to extract oil from the ground, then burn its byproducts in wasteful, inefficient, internal combustion engines, fouling the air and poisoning everyone, for the benefit of a few entitled individuals. Enjoy it now, while its still legal.
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It will be legal until every last drop is burned or until a cheaper viable alternative is found.
 
Any time people choose to do something different and don’t follow the brainless herd, they open themselves up to being called elitist. Happily in the US the brainless herd is a bit smaller proportionately than in many other places and hasn’t really fallen victim to this tendency when it comes to GA. I hope this remains true in the future and that history books of tomorrow will recognize how some people rose above others, to show what could be done by anybody.
 
My plane cost about the same as these Bro-dozer trucks I see all over the place now. Those don't look as fun to me.

My annual is probably a bit more. :D My insurance is probably a bit less. I don't need a stepladder to hoist my 5'4-in-boots self up into the cabin. I yell 'clear prop' out the window instead of 'Wooo!'

The insurance effect on us is real though -- not just the biz+pleasure we all pay, but your mechanic's shop insurance, the FBO's product completions insurance, your hangar landlord's disaster/whatever else insurance, parts manufacturers... it alllll trickles down directly to us.

Still wouldn't trade it for much else.
 
MacFly said:
I'll bet the folks who own PA-28's and PA-32's are a little uncomfortable with the way the GA fleet is aging.
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You mean strutless Cessna, V-tail Bos, comanches, and all legacy non-trainer piston twins. I'm indeed uncomfortable with the way GA is aging, but PA-28 ownership is not the reason. To your macro point, assuming you even had one, this is a distinction without difference. We're all going to the same coffin corner if reform doesn't occur in earnest.
 
wilkersk said:
The history books of tomorrow will call us all "elitist". And future generations will wonder how anyone could ever have been so selfish as to extract oil from the ground, then burn its byproducts in wasteful, inefficient, internal combustion engines, fouling the air and poisoning everyone, for the benefit of a few entitled individuals. Enjoy it now, while its still legal.
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It is depressing to browse through Paul Freeman's Abandoned & Little-Known Airfields site. I think about airports in my logbook that are no longer there ... San Fernando, Santa Susana, Rancho California, Capistrano, Meadowlark, Lake Havasu Site Six, the old Apple Valley, Henderson (Ojai), Quartz Hill, Evergreen, ... Most of them started out in sparsely populated areas or on the fringe of the suburbs, and they were swallowed up by development as the "fringes" are pushed further and further out. I suppose that's inevitable, since the nation's population has grown by some 52% since I got my PPL in 1968. The population of California has more than doubled in that time.

This article was written as satire ... but maybe it isn't. https://www.theonion.com/new-study-finds-most-of-earth-s-landmass-will-be-phoeni-1819579315
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
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I read a short story in Cycle magazine many years ago. 2 guys took their "dirt" bikes with eco-friendly digital motors to the only recreation vehicle simulator park in town. On the way back, they decided to break the law and take them off road for real. Long story short, robocop drones killed them in order to preserve the peace.
 
They are in demand because there aren’t enough of them. The reason is twofold. First of all building hangars to rent involves a near impossible business model. Secondly the city councils that control most municipal airports know that if they’re patient theY can get DOT funds that will fund

90% of approved airport improvement projects. For that reason they sit in their hands and wait for the gubmint money. So, shortage of hangars is not an indication of a booming GA industry.
 
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Having lots of used derelict garbage on the market doesn't make it a golden age for me.. and the FAA medical process basically says "don't go to the doctor"

I doubt Cuba considers itself in the golden age of the auto industry because of all the used American classic cars there

OP has a valid point though. We have unprecedented access to airplanes, you can buy just about anything you want (finances allowing) and if you earn over $120K and are financially smart there is a lot of good buys out there for a decent plane

But frankly, GA just isn't commensurate with today's sociological environment.. post war era.. 1950-1975-ish is my idea of golden era
 
I don’t know about “financially smart.” Financing something like an airplane or a boat is not smart in my perception. If financially smart means you have squirreled away enough money to write a check for it then, yeah that’s financially smart.
 
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