The Sky is Falling!

MBDiagMan

MBDiagMan

Final Approach
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Mount Pleasant,Texas
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Doc
Did anyone see the AOPA Aviation EBrief in the last day or two that claimed that Global Warming is going to change aviation? It stated that wings would have to be redesigned and flights would have to be scheduled after dark for cooler air. For a few milliseconds I thought it must be April 1st.

Last year was the warmest day on record by POINT ZERO TWO (.02) degrees.

I'm going to start right now lobbying for my local airport to extend the runway 1,000 feet.:rolleyes:
 
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I would hope the AOPA would have more sense than to fall for the "global warming" hype. Sheesh.
 
Well, global warming is not hype by any means, but I doubt its effect on performance is going to be too significant anytime soon. More wind on more days in some places, probably.
 
I think it far likelier that you'll have to find a new place to stash your aircraft (or buy a floatplane) than have any trouble due to DA.
 
That's why AOPA is not a scientific nor engineering organization.

There may be some significant effects of climate change on aviation, largely in the area of fuels (as aviation, particularly Part 121, is a significant carbon source), but wing design is not one of them. Efficient wings may be a nice thing, but they are wanted for other reasons like speed and fuel efficiency. Climate? No. It will affect weather, especially winds, but existing wings can fly adequately even in 10,000 DA.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Did anyone see the AOPA Aviation EBrief in the last day or two that claimed that Global Warming is going to change aviation? It stated that wings would have to be redesigned and flights would have to be scheduled after dark for cooler air. For a few milliseconds I thought it must be April 1st.

Last year was the warmest day on record by POINT ZERO TWO (.02) degrees.

I'm going to start right now lobbying for my local airport to extend the runway 1,000 feet.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...


...and NASA came back and said they were only 36% confident that it was the hottest year by 0.02*F. Well then I give 36% of a ****. :D

The "we gotta do something now" crowd don't even get their stories straight.

First they said it would get warmer. But then that didn't happen.

So then they said "extremes" (including cold) are what we need to watch for. Then that didn't happen either.

So now they say the temps aren't rising because (maybe) the oceans are trapping heat (as if the oceans haven't been there through all of history).

But even if so, they say that man's portion of "climate change" is not discernible from natural fluctuation and we can only "fix" a tiny percentage of that!

But I'm supposed to freak out and agree to let people spend my money to fix this non-problem? :no: If this is really a matter of science and not pure cynical politics, then I am far from alarmed. There are much simpler and cheaper ways to improve the plight of earthlings.

I'm not going to freak out over poorly correlated computer models much less abjectly busted computer models.

And I don't think anyone will be redesigning airplane wings to accommodate hotter (or is it colder?) temps anytime soon.
 
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petrolero said:
...and NASA came back and said they were only 36% confident that it was the hottest day by 0.02*F. Well then I give 36% of a ****. :D
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Somehow, I tend to doubt "facts" on this board when the warmest YEAR on record is reported as a DAY.

Honestly, guys, details matter. Get your facts straight if you're going to criticize. You're obviously misquoting. And you've so completely assumed the contrary answer, that both of you missed that.

And you've clearly cherry picked your "facts" as well. That's egregious. No one cares if one year is a record or not. It's all about trends and 30+ year means. One year to another varies, and everyone knows that.
 
MAKG1 said:
Somehow, I tend to doubt "facts" on this board when the warmest YEAR on record is reported as a DAY.

Honestly, guys, details matter. Get your facts straight if you're going to criticize. You're obviously misquoting. And you've so completely assumed the contrary answer, that both of you missed that.

And you've clearly cherry picked your "facts" as well. That's egregious. No one cares if one year is a record or not. It's all about trends and 30+ year means. One year to another varies, and everyone knows that.
Click to expand...

You're picking nits.

Yes. Year. So don't believe it. Go look it up.

It's a simple typo on a discussion board not a PhD dissertation. Everyone who's reading this and also reads the news knows which claim we are referring to.
 
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MAKG1 said:
And you've clearly cherry picked your "facts" as well. That's egregious. No one cares if one year is a record or not. It's all about trends and 30+ year means. One year to another varies, and everyone knows that.
Click to expand...

I haven't cherry picked anything. It turns out that those who have been telling us we have to spend massive sums of money to stop this "problem" may have been cherry picking their facts.

There has been no additional warming despite a rise in global CO2 concentration. The computer models predicted wrong. Way wrong. That is a fact. It isn't politics, it is just fact. Again, I'm not going to get alarmed by predictions made with unvalidated computer models.
 
petrolero said:
You're picking nits.

Yes. Year. So don't believe it. Go look it up.

It's a simple typo on a discussion board not a PhD dissertation. Everyone who's reading this and also reads the news knows which claim we are referring to.
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No. Not a nit.

It's like saying the stall speed on your 172 is 4 knots.

Details matter, especially in an argument that's all about the details. There is enough loud obnoxious noise in this "debate" without adding stupid inattention to it.
 
petrolero said:
I haven't cherry picked anything. It turns out that those who have been telling us we have to spend massive sums of money to stop this "problem" may have been cherry picking their facts.

There has been no additional warming despite a rise in global CO2 concentration. The computer models predicted wrong. Way wrong. That is a fact. It isn't politics, it is just fact. Again, I'm not going to get alarmed by predictions made with unvalidated computer models.
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Umm, this is wrong in every detail.

Kinda stunning.
 
steingar said:
I think it far likelier that you'll have to find a new place to stash your aircraft (or buy a floatplane) than have any trouble due to DA.
Click to expand...
I'm based at KOMN in coastal Florida very near the Atlantic Ocean. KOMN is currently 27 ft msl. According to the EPA, sea level is expected to rise about 1.5 ft by 2050 and almost 6 ft by 2100. Now, I'd love to have a float plane, and might even buy one someday, but it won't be because of global warming and the rising tide.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html#sealevel
 
MBDiagMan said:
Okay, I found the silly article that I was referring to:

https://www.smartbrief.com/servlet/...A3E-D507-41A1-A27A-326FA538B445&lmid=archives
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That is a silly article. Pure junk journalism. Let's make a Frankenstein story out of some fact (the hotter the temp, the harder an aircraft has to work) with some good old fashioned alarm bell ringing (Climate Scientist Ethan Coffel released a report showing how the thinner air density of hotter days will disrupt the aviation industry). Expand the story with some fluff and filler and then send it out into the masses.
 
Rigged4Flight said:
That is a silly article. Pure junk journalism. Let's make a Frankenstein story out of some fact (the hotter the temp, the harder an aircraft has to work) with some good old fashioned alarm bell ringing (Climate Scientist Ethan Coffel released a report showing how the thinner air density of hotter days will disrupt the aviation industry). Expand the story with some fluff and filler and then send it out into the masses.
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Well, how else can you explain AirAsia falling out of the sky?;)
 
JOhnH said:
I'm based at KOMN in coastal Florida very near the Atlantic Ocean. KOMN is currently 27 ft msl. According to the EPA, sea level is expected to rise about 1.5 ft by 2050 and almost 6 ft by 2100. Now, I'd love to have a float plane, and might even buy one someday, but it won't be because of global warming and the rising tide.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html#sealevel
Click to expand...

Did my PP and lived there for 4 months a few years ago. Still miss Billy's Tap Room!
 
JOhnH said:
I'm based at KOMN in coastal Florida very near the Atlantic Ocean. KOMN is currently 27 ft msl. According to the EPA, sea level is expected to rise about 1.5 ft by 2050 and almost 6 ft by 2100. Now, I'd love to have a float plane, and might even buy one someday, but it won't be because of global warming and the rising tide.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html#sealevel
Click to expand...


You're really lucky not to already need that float plane. I remember watching a program on Earth Day, 1990 that said by the year 2000, Miami Beach would have water in the hotels. I was at a convention in one of those hotels in 2001 and was shocked that I didn't have to take off my shoes and roll up my pants legs.
 
MBDiagMan said:
You're really lucky not to already need that float plane. I remember watching a program on Earth Day, 1990 that said by the year 2000, Miami Beach would have water in the hotels. I was at a convention in one of those hotels in 2001 and was shocked that I didn't have to take off my shoes and roll up my pants legs.
Click to expand...

There are plenty in Miami Beach already, they are called "watering holes"...
 
mtuomi said:
Did my PP and lived there for 4 months a few years ago. Still miss Billy's Tap Room!
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Billy's has changed hands a couple of times. Monk sold it to someone for a fortune before the recession started and they went bankrupt and were foreclosed on. Then someone else bought it and restored it to the way you probably remember it. It is STILL my favorite restaurant here.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Okay, I found the silly article that I was referring to:

https://www.smartbrief.com/servlet/...A3E-D507-41A1-A27A-326FA538B445&lmid=archives
Click to expand...

For those who hate clicking on links:

"According to a report by climate scientist Ethan Coffel, global warming could disrupt the aviation industry, making takeoffs more difficult, and more expensive. Coffel says air density decreases as temperature increases, meaning that an airplane has to go faster to produce the same amount of lift. Hotter temperatures around the world could mean changes in wing design, or shifting flights to takeoff during the cooler evening hours."

A search for Ethan Coffel turned up this:
http://ethancoffel.com/

"I'm Ethan Coffel. I'm a PhD student at Columbia studying atmospheric science and climate change impacts in the Earth & Environmental Sciences department and working with Dr. Radley Horton at NASA GISS. My current research is focused on the causes and impacts of extreme temperature and precipitation events, and how the frequency and magnitude of these events may change over the next century. I study the effect of climate change on extreme weather using the NARCCAP and CMIP5 climate model suites. I am a fellow of the Northeast Climate Science Center, a group dedicated to studying climate change impacts in the northeast United States. I graduated from Northwestern University in 2013 with majors in computer science and integrated science."
 
Jim Logajan said:
For those who hate clicking on links:

"According to a report by climate scientist Ethan Coffel, global warming could disrupt the aviation industry, making takeoffs more difficult, and more expensive. Coffel says air density decreases as temperature increases, meaning that an airplane has to go faster to produce the same amount of lift. Hotter temperatures around the world could mean changes in wing design, or shifting flights to takeoff during the cooler evening hours."

A search for Ethan Coffel turned up this:
http://ethancoffel.com/

"I'm Ethan Coffel. I'm a PhD student at Columbia studying atmospheric science and climate change impacts in the Earth & Environmental Sciences department and working with Dr. Radley Horton at NASA GISS. My current research is focused on the causes and impacts of extreme temperature and precipitation events, and how the frequency and magnitude of these events may change over the next century. I study the effect of climate change on extreme weather using the NARCCAP and CMIP5 climate model suites. I am a fellow of the Northeast Climate Science Center, a group dedicated to studying climate change impacts in the northeast United States. I graduated from Northwestern University in 2013 with majors in computer science and integrated science."
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Ethan might be a PhD student, but he doesn't know squat about flying airplanes. I'm not going to lose any sleep over his prediction.
 
JOhnH said:
Billy's has changed hands a couple of times. Monk sold it to someone for a fortune before the recession started and they went bankrupt and were foreclosed on. Then someone else bought it and restored it to the way you probably remember it. It is STILL my favorite restaurant here.
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That was before I was there, I was there summer of 2013. Rented a condo for the summer, got my PPL and enjoyed life.
Billy's is a great place, ate there many many times. And Alfies... :)

How is KOMN nowadays? I imagine quiet, after that thief scumbag seized his FlyEASA operation there?
 
Ghery said:
Ethan might be a PhD student, but he doesn't know squat about flying airplanes. I'm not going to lose any sleep over his prediction.
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Ah but our friend Ethan is going to get his PhD then get a gov't job integrating airplanes with global warming.:lol::mad2::sad:
:rofl:
 
mtuomi said:
That was before I was there, I was there summer of 2013. Rented a condo for the summer, got my PPL and enjoyed life.
Billy's is a great place, ate there many many times. And Alfies... :)

How is KOMN nowadays? I imagine quiet, after that thief scumbag seized his FlyEASA operation there?
Click to expand...
The airport is fine, as long as you don't expect a real FBO or a SS fuel station that works consistently. Of course, we just use it to fly out of. When we fly in, we go straight to our overpriced hangar.
I'm not sure which scumbag you are referring to though. I can think of a couple that fit the bill.
 
I've been trying to increase global warming by burning more fossil fuels. I'm not a fan of the cold and would like it to be summer all year round. Give me the 100+ heat. Also if we melt the polar ice caps then that will open some new beaches to vacation at.
 
JOhnH said:
The airport is fine, as long as you don't expect a real FBO or a SS fuel station that works consistently. Of course, we just use it to fly out of. When we fly in, we go straight to our overpriced hangar.
I'm not sure which scumbag you are referring to though. I can think of a couple that fit the bill.
Click to expand...

Mainly Adrian Thompson and Kyle whateverhisnamewas, the people who were behind FlyEASA. They ran away with 4 figures of my money.

The ATC is great there, and I always try to make time for a full stop and taxi back every time I fly around there. I wish it was easier to get in and out of there, I would visit Billys much more often that way...
 
What a dumb idea. Airplanes manage well enough in warm weather. If someone wanted to write a plausible, intelligent article about climate warming and aviation, they would point to greater weather challenges with high winds convective activity and thunderstorms.
 
MAKG1 said:
Somehow, I tend to doubt "facts" on this board when the warmest YEAR on record is reported as a DAY.

Honestly, guys, details matter. Get your facts straight if you're going to criticize. You're obviously misquoting. And you've so completely assumed the contrary answer, that both of you missed that.

And you've clearly cherry picked your "facts" as well. That's egregious. No one cares if one year is a record or not. It's all about trends and 30+ year means. One year to another varies, and everyone knows that.
Click to expand...

This from the guy that said dropping something from a 20 story building would break the sound barrier. Please tell us more oh enlightened one.
 
Nice. Confirms the choice to not renew in December was the right one. Threw out another AOPA envelope this morning. They're getting desperate, they're now offering me the first free hat they've offered me in a decade. LOL
 
Yeah Denver, that was pretty much my reaction. The only reason I haven't thrown in the towel with them is that it is so convenient to renew my aircraft insurance with them. It comes due in May. I'll now be paying more attention to the AVEMCO and other solicitations that I get.
 
I just saw on the news where record snow fall is expected in Boston over the next few days. I guess they haven't heard about global warming up there.

In all seriousness, best of luck to those in the path of the blizzard. Hunker down and be safe.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Did anyone see the AOPA Aviation EBrief in the last day or two that claimed that Global Warming is going to change aviation? It stated that wings would have to be redesigned and flights would have to be scheduled after dark for cooler air. For a few milliseconds I thought it must be April 1st.

Last year was the warmest day on record by POINT ZERO TWO (.02) degrees.

I'm going to start right now lobbying for my local airport to extend the runway 1,000 feet.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

This is clearly a perfectly timed press release to counter the bad image the Davos global warming summit would create with those jets photographed..... All of those 1700 private jets are on the AOPA wine list ya know... :rolleyes: :mad2::mad2::mad2::mad2:
 
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mtuomi said:
Mainly Adrian Thompson and Kyle whateverhisnamewas, the people who were behind FlyEASA. They ran away with 4 figures of my money.

The ATC is great there, and I always try to make time for a full stop and taxi back every time I fly around there. I wish it was easier to get in and out of there, I would visit Billys much more often that way...
Click to expand...

You appear to be quite far from here, but my hangar is empty for the next month or so. If you fly in you are welcome to the hangar and my wife and I will be happy to take you to Billy's.
 
No way man. I traded my snow shovel for a canoe on account of all them scientists telling me the sea level was going to rise and us coastal Massachusetians were gonna be under water. Schucks.
MBDiagMan said:
I just saw on the news where record snow fall is expected in Boston over the next few days. I guess they haven't heard about global warming up there.

In all seriousness, best of luck to those in the path of the blizzard. Hunker down and be safe.
Click to expand...
 
MBDiagMan said:
I just saw on the news where record snow fall is expected in Boston over the next few days. I guess they haven't heard about global warming up there.

In all seriousness, best of luck to those in the path of the blizzard. Hunker down and be safe.
Click to expand...

As you probably learned during your pilot training, as air warms it can hold more moisture.
 
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