The "go / no go" decision

arkvet

arkvet

Line Up and Wait
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Brent
I'm not really sure how to go about this post but it's something that' been on my mind quite a bit in the past week or two. As we see crash reports every few days we continue to note that many times (especially when dealing with weather) that the go/no go decision is what costs people their lives. Let's face it, none of us want to be "that guy" but every few days one of us is.

I'm very much against any new rules or regulations to "aid" with this issue but would rather like to discuss some potential helpful ideas that might be doable on a personal / group level. Who knows maybe some of you all already do something like this???

My idea (what I'm considering) is finding another pilot that I trust to provide input when the decision is not easy. Basically have someone that has no connection to your desired mission assess the mission and say "looks like you should get a hotel and go tomorrow". There will be no "get there -itis" to influence us. Also, since this would be a pre-arranged setup I think I would be more apt to not blow off the advice. I would ,of course, provide the same advice in return.

Some of you may remember last Friday am I made a post regarding a wind shear forecast. It was something I wasn't familiar with and the members of this forum were a HUGE help with me understanding it and making the "go" decision. I will be honest and say that without that feedback I would have driven my truck and missed out on a beautiful flight.

Does anyone out there have a pilot friend that they rely on for objective help when external pressures could be tough to face?

Maybe it's a goofy idea. IDK. Overall I've been a pretty good decision maker and have never put myself into a bad position... but I know I'm not immune.

Just wondering if a network where people were comfortable discussing concerns / risk assessments would be a good thing? What about a forum section named "go/no go"?
 
James, MAKG, eman, Mulligan. Not necessarily in that order.

I kid! ;)
 
I rarely scrub a flight on a forecast alone. I've had too many times where I have done that and the weather turns out to be just fine.
I fly my airplane to work and then when I'm done up my trip back home obviously. I watch the weather pretty close and do my best to make a decision on whether I think I will be able to get back into my airport on the day I get back.
There's a lot of talk about personal limits, but personal limits can be thrown out the window when you really want to get somewhere. When I get off work, I really want to get home. In that light, I look for a forecast that's going to give me pretty good chance of making it home. I also realize that I may have to spend the night at the airport.
In three years of fly my airplane to work mostly on a weekly basis during the non icing season comma I've had to divert once because of low clouds and low visibility.
I don't usually scrub a flight for wind. That's a personal decision though. I'm comfortable with up to about 28 knot crosswind with my Mooney. Your limits may be different. Your buddies limits may be different and your buddies buddy limit maybe different. That's the only problem I can see with having a second person involved.
I commend you for looking for ways to make your flying safer! Just be aware that you and your friend may have very different Comfort levels.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
 
My part-time CFI that helped me finish up my ticket also shares my plane. I tend to text him about situations, like when I got stuck in Indy due to snow. I had never flown in snow and didn't know if I could go or not. He helped put context into what I had been reading on the internet and I made the flight.

I'm trying to convince my father to take this cross country trip with me to Boston and he's concerned about the go/no-go decision. For that trip he'll be my sounding board, although he's not a pilot. I don't want to be stuck in an airplane for 7 hours with a super nervous passenger.
 
Doesn't the FAA have a "decision matrix" form for use? I found it helpful when I was a student, but have no idea where it got to. It helps one establish, and expand, personal minimums. I don't see any harm in a "take a look" approach to any flight, as long as there are planned alternatives. I used that last week on my aborted cross country.

The CFI who does my flight reviews is a firm believer in getting an actual briefing! From a live briefer, no less! I mean, isn't this the 21st Century for Pete's sake? Isn't ForeFlight ENOUGH?!!

All kidding aside, sometimes old school is better, period. VFR NOT RECOMMENDED is pretty good advice most days. Too bad we've lost the local expertise available from Flight Service Stations.
 
N659HB said:
All kidding aside, sometimes old school is better, period. VFR NOT RECOMMENDED is pretty good advice most days. Too bad we've lost the local expertise available from Flight Service Stations.
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A word of caution. Usually that's a liability issue on their part. Back in the day it was a nasty forecast but I filed IFR anyway. Briefer asked me who my beneficially was! It turned out I was way east of a slow moving front and VFR the entire flight.
 
Glad that you are asking the question. Good decision making there. There is no one answer, as your experience level and others will be different, as well as conditions always will be.

As others have said, do the conditions meet your standards? This is where you have to define those. If they don't, scrub the flight, or get some instruction to make you feel more comfortable in those conditions (I'm talking winds right now, or maybe icing or turbulence). If it is IFR-ish (is that a word?) and you aren't, it catches all of us VFR pilots at sometime, and you have to decide on the fly (ha, ha) where you are going to land to get out of it.

It is a license to learn. Never put so much faith in a flight to its conclusion that you forget that a flight in a small aircraft is always optional, and never mandatory.
 
I have a fellow pilot friend who will consult with me about go / no go weather decisions. We both have about the same pilot experience but he's feels the need to back up his ADM with my input.

It's not entirely a bad idea. In the military you sometimes have briefers that scrub the risk assessment worksheet and have to sign off your mission before you go. Flying professionally like I do now, we have specific people that evaluate my RA and give me permission to launch. Takes away from my PIC authority a bit but a second set of eyes doesn't hurt.
 
Velocity173 said:
I have a fellow pilot friend who will confer with me about go / no go weather decisions. We both have about the same pilot experience but he's feels the need to back up his ADM with my input.

It's not entirely a bad idea. In the military you sometimes have briefers that scrub the risk assessment worksheet and have to sign off your mission before you go. Flying professionally like I do now, we have specific people that evaluate my RA and give me permission to launch. Takes away from my PIC authority a bit but a second set of eyes doesn't hurt.
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My gawd if I read one more post from Velocity about something military.... :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
N659HB said:
Doesn't the FAA have a "decision matrix" form for use? I found it helpful when I was a student, but have no idea where it got to. It helps one establish, and expand, personal minimums. I don't see any harm in a "take a look" approach to any flight, as long as there are planned alternatives. I used that last week on my aborted cross country.

The CFI who does my flight reviews is a firm believer in getting an actual briefing! From a live briefer, no less! I mean, isn't this the 21st Century for Pete's sake? Isn't ForeFlight ENOUGH?!!

All kidding aside, sometimes old school is better, period. VFR NOT RECOMMENDED is pretty good advice most days. Too bad we've lost the local expertise available from Flight Service Stations.
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Here it is!!

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Good stuff so far guys. I should have maybe given more background. I'm a 200 hour pilot that's finishing up my IFR soon. I fly a Saratoga and my family (wife and 3 kids) fly with me pretty often.

i am just finding the recent spike in accidents somewhat depressing. I dont have an invincible attitude. I just want to be a safe pilot.

I've only rarely used an actual briefer. I honestly don't need someone to read me a forecast and tell me VFR not recommended when it's anything bedsides CAVU.

Somehow I knew an AOA would pop up in the discussion. I will put that on my list of upgrades when the panel gets its next makeover.
 
arkvet said:
Good stuff so far guys. I should have maybe given more background. I'm a 200 hour pilot that's finishing up my IFR soon. I fly a Saratoga and my family (wife and 3 kids) fly with me pretty often.

i am just finding the recent spike in accidents somewhat depressing. I dont have an invincible attitude. I just want to be a safe pilot.

I've only rarely used an actual briefer. I honestly don't need someone to read me a forecast and tell me VFR not recommended when it's anything bedsides CAVU.

Somehow I knew an AOA would pop up in the discussion. I will put that on my list of upgrades when the panel gets its next makeover.
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Good attitude arkvet. You know we have to 'humorize' the thread, but sounds like you're a very safe and cautious pilot. That's the way to be.

Not like that damn Mulligan and his triple redundant AOA equipped cirrus, I mean Cirrus. :D
 
AggieMike88 said:
Don't know about the FAA, but the CAP does.
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And it's BS. Though that (out of date) one is a lot better than the modern one. It does things like count the number of sorties. Sorry, six thirty minute sorties spread out over a day are not twice as risky as one three hour sortie. You're not taking any additional risk landing at a familiar unobstructed field under 3000 feet long.

There are a few things that can help. Personal minimums. Working out contingency plans. Listening to doubts. Most importantly, being willing to guess wrong and say "no-go" when it would have worked.

Having the option of getting a clearance has allowed me to take more marginal VFR flights. But I still do have my personal minimums. 2000 foot ceiling over the valley, 3000 (minimum) to cross the pass, insisting I can see both sides and the ground at once (it's just over 1000 foot terrain, and about 6 miles wide). I also do not reverse a no go decision.

It's better to be down here wishing you were up there, than the other way around.
 
It's a tremendous idea. I will often hit up my former CFI for his input if I'm feeling iffy. If it is right at the edge of my comfort zone, I'll seek out his input. After, all, how will you know what your REAL limits are if you never reach them? If it is beyond what I'm comfortable with, I might ask him if I'm being unreasonable, but he's as cautious as I tend to be.

A rule of thumb I use if there's an airmet for turbulence at my cruising altitude, I won't be going with passengers on a pleasure flight. I might scrub my own flight for that reason, since I like flying and want to continue liking it.

My personal go/no go threshold is MUCH higher when carrying passengers than when I'm alone as well... though I'm much the same way when it comes to driving.

If you're gonna rely on someone to back up your decision making, make damn sure that they are as cautious if not more cautious than you. You don't want that person to be the guy that says "I fly in my non fiki plane in damn near IMC between mountain peaks under lenticular clouds and if you don't you're a pansy!"
 
My CFI who is also a charter pilot with over 8000 hrs has a strict personal minimum printer out and stuck to the wall of his office. He sticks to it, I have the format and based on his inputs I plan to define my personal minimums and stick to it. I am a student and I plan to continue that practice down the road as well. Expanding personal minimums is a different topic altogether though and will change over time. If I have to choose another pilot to bounce off ideas, I would choose him since he is aware of my limitations.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 
I routinely ignore AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence unless it also involves low level wind shear or unusually high winds (e.g., Santa Anas), or flight into high altitude mountain regions. Passengers get a warning that we MIGHT find some turbulence, but if that happens, we'll change altitude and find smoother air. It almost never happens. I take AIRMET ZULU very seriously as I don't have appropriate ice protection; generally, that means no IMC and no flying through rain showers if it's below or near freezing OAT. AIRMET SIERRA gets extra looks. Patchy mountain obscuration or IMC can often be flown around, or sometimes over. It's worse if it's below freezing at cruise altitude. SIGMETs get a hard look and are usually no-gos. Not very common, though.
 
There are so many on here from all over the country that could offer advice on their local area if asked and the route was provided. You know how much we love giving advice.

Another thing that would be nice is to be able to land at almost any airport in the country and have a "POA friend" come pick you up in an emergency. Any of you are always welcome to spend the night in my home or a nearby hotel. I will bring food and blankets to the hangar if needed. I have friends at several airports that know if I am near and need them, I will call. They know they can do the same for me. I flew right over a friend's town/airport on a trip last Fall, while making an enroute go-no-go decision. I planned my route that way, knowing where the wx was. We kept going. Wx was mvfr and I flew close to every field along the route and was ready to land or make a 180 at anytime. My wife and I knew what my minimum altitude/visibility was, and we would not press on if that was reached. With most of these recent accidents, there was A POINT in their flight where they should have hit the AP disconnect. I have done it three times in 350+ hrs. Each time with more experience, it became easier. They chose to push on into deteriorating conditions and the results were fatal.
Talking about military. Back in Germany in 1990, my favorite CW4 landed us in a field during a snow storm, near dark. We spent the night in that cold Blackhawk, each of us taking turns cranking the APU to keep from freezing. At dawn, I looked out the windshield at a 500' + or - radio tower, with nice big cables, not more than a mile away. He knew when to land. I tracked him down last year (26 yrs later) to catch up.

My family trust me with their lives and know I will always do everything I can to keep them safe. Even if that means calling ATC, admitting my screw-up and asking for help. I can deal with some training, a suspension and a ride if needed.
 
If you have second thoughts don't go,set your personal minimums,remember your the pilot that has to fly it.
 
Shepherd said:
If you have to think about it more than 3 minutes, don't go.
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I usually spend an hour flight planning a long trip, making phone calls to airports, etc...during good weather. So, I would never go flying, hehe.

As the weather gets closer to my minimums, it takes me much longer. I will start watching the wx patterns 2-3 days out. Sometimes changing my route helps. I have flown 4.5 hrs around wx or terrain vs 2 hrs trying to go direct through mvfr conditions. At 160 kts, a lot of ground can be covered.
 
MAKG1 said:
It's better to be down here wishing you were up there, than the other way around.
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Which is my take on it.

I also use a three strike rule. I had a PnP flight once where 1) lower predicted very cold clouds happened, 2) a non-working master switch in the plane, and 3) a big case of get-ther-itis got me rethinking about it being safe to fly.

Made the decision to load up all the pups in the car and drove to meet the Frankenkota in Graham, TX so Clark could get the pups to Colorado.

Any time I feel a self created pressure of "gotta get there and take risks", I start evaluating safety in a big way.
 
I think most folks know when its a no go, they just sometimes talk them selves into it being a go, like taking a test, the first answer you think of is normally the right one.

Along those lines, I never put any limitations on my solo students, just had them call me before any solo flights.
Now I never told any of them to go, or not to go, I just normally asked a few questions, or said have a good time, the few who were debating going up in iffy weather, they most always already knew it was a bad idea, and would always end up saying "nevermind"

Point is, you already know the answer, don't over think it.

Same deal with "man, think I should put carb heat on" or "wonder if I should stop for fuel" If you ask if you should do it, you probably should have done it 10 minutes ago.
 
Even if you've committed to a "go," have the flexibility to change it in the air to a "no go" if conditions deteriorate...return to home base, or land and wait it out. It sounds obvious, but there is sometimes great difficulty in overriding that get-there-itis after you've made the initial commitment and are airborne. Eyeball Version 3.0 sometimes trumps the most detailed weather forecast.
 
I've gone on days nobody else would and had the world to myself just a few minutes away from town. I've also gone on days I shouldn't. My best go/no-go coach is my wife. If she sees me pacing around looking at the weather she cracks a beer and hands it to me. "Day's over now". Sometimes you need a wife to reinforce what you already know.
 
RV10flyer said:
I usually spend an hour flight planning a long trip, making phone calls to airports, etc...during good weather. So, I would never go flying, hehe.

As the weather gets closer to my minimums, it takes me much longer. I will start watching the wx patterns 2-3 days out. Sometimes changing my route helps. I have flown 4.5 hrs around wx or terrain vs 2 hrs trying to go direct through mvfr conditions. At 160 kts, a lot of ground can be covered.
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To clarify my original statement: You've already finished all the planning, made all the calls, checked all the notams and everything else that makes you feel good about a flight. It should be a go\no go decision at that point.
If you have to think about it for more than three minutes, at this point, don't go.
Unless you are watching the same weather channel as mscard88. That's a serious weather delay.
 
Stewartb said:
I've gone on days nobody else would and had the world to myself just a few minutes away from town. I've also gone on days I shouldn't. My best go/no-go coach is my wife. If she sees me pacing around looking at the weather she cracks a beer and hands it to me. "Day's over now". Sometimes you need a wife to reinforce what you already know.
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Sounds like the day before many of my return trips. Minus the beer 24 hrs out. Going is not bad because we plan around those wx makers. On one return trip, four days later than planned, we made it out of Florida before the first 60,000' Level 5 TS hit Jacksonville. ATC: Level 5...say intentions? We'll be deviating to the east.
 
Maybe pretend there is no other pilot friend/mentor ever available to advise you - every call is totally on you, absent any wisdom or insight from a more experienced and skilled advisor. Get a mind set of independent decision making; you're probably smart enough, and rational enough, to slowly expand your personal minimums as you gain confidence, experience, and scare yourself occasionally.
 
The RA and ORM matrices are, IMHO, pretty lame, especially for most GA. Arbitrary weighting, one size fits all (and it doesn't, of course), and intentional skewing to no-go. . .I'd be leery of someone who relied on ORM adds and takeaways to decide to go or no go, substituting a stranger's values/weightings for their own self knowledge and awareness of personal strengths and short comings.

It's cool if it works for you, or if you use it as just one more thing to consider; no worries, but not my thing. I flew for CAP (until the BS exceeded the ROI) and so kept a few ORM forms "pre-filled", for those times when someone asked for the form - and I certainly knew if I was go or no go before completing the silly form. If it was iffy for weather or other factors, my time was better spent dealing with those considerations, vice plugging SWAG numbers into a matrix of limited value.
 
I think one of the best things you can do safety-wise is be ready and willing to locate the nearest airport to you while in flight and land at it. Better still, have a couple in mind before you go- I tend to go for airports with multiple runways that are wide and long.... and large enough to likely have services like courtesy cars or taxis available.

The following story is true, I might have the precise times/ceilings slightly off but close enough for the purposes of this discussion: last fall I had a 4-day weekend trip planned to Branson, MO. My route would have been KUIN -> KBBG if you feel like punching that in. Ceilings were good at home but started out IFR near our destination that morning as some t-storms rolled through. It was supposed to clear up overnight and be good enough... 3-5k ceilings forecast as of 5pm. Our departure point was something like scattered 5000 most of the day IIRC. The trouble was that we had to leave the house by 3:30 and be off the ground by 4:30 to safely land in daylight conditions. Meaning I probably wouldn't know if the destination, which was roughly 2hrs away was going to be safe to fly into for certain until I was in the air. To make this all worse, some nasty weather was on it's way into our departure area the next day so if we didn't leave this particular evening in this narrow time window the trip was pretty much canceled. Oh and we'd been unable to get away for months and my wife's schedule was such that we wouldn't be able to try again for at least another month or more. No pressure, right?

Ahh, but I had one trick up my sleeve. About halfway through the flight we'd pass by K15 in Osage Beach, MO... lake of the ozarks, another tourist place in MO. I've been there many times and I have a friend who lives there who is usually happy to meet me at the airport. When I departed from home, bound for KBBG home was clear or 'few', KBBG was still overcast 1200 or something like that but forecast to improve... but K15, the halfway point, was was broken 3,000. I departed, headwinds were a bit worse than expected and we made slow progress. I kept checking the weather in-flight, it got up to around 2,000 broken or something like that but by the time we'd arrive it would be dark and I'd never been to that field. I wasn't happy with that so we with plan "bravo". Landed at K15, had dinner at a nice place with my friend, got a room for the night. The next morning some unexpected t-storms blocked our way but by mid-day they moved slowly to the north and by diverting a bit to the east I was able to put 30+ nm between me and the storm and make the flight. If things had started to go bad, I had multiple airports I could have landed at or run away from the weather and into. Fortunately there were no problems. My wife even had a good time at our unexpected stop.

Now, when I first got my PPL I would have canceled both legs of that trip but I've been flying for a couple years and many hours since and have a better feel for what the weather is going to do. I fly with weather available in-cockpit and, especially when anything looks iffy I have plans bravo, charlie, and delta already thought out. Landing halfway or turning around is always an option, here in the midwest you're rarely more than 10 minutes away from a field somewhere... maybe not a great one but one you can land at and wait. If you look at most of the VFR into IMC accidents you usually see a bunch of perfectly good airports in perfectly good VFR conditions the pilot could have simply landed at before it became an emergency.

When you try to fly places on certain days weather is going to mess it up at least half the time. Eventually it's going to tempt you into "pushing it" and I feel like a lot of the time the answer we give people is "don't". Just don't fly... after all you don't need to and better to be safe than sorry. That's good advice but let's face it, a lot of us didn't go through all the training and expense to get us where we are to stay home and talk about how safe we're being. I would never advise anyone to fly into bad weather but I would suggest that some flexibility with your travel plans can open up options you didn't necessarily consider and salvage the weekend. Heck even if you end up landing in bumsville and spend the night shivering in your plane, trying to sleep while rain pelts the cabin and your wife stares daggers at you... at least it will make a good story later.
 
cowman said:
...and your wife stares daggers at you... at least it will make a good story later.
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Been there. At least 3X. Oh how we like long walks to the nearest town, with backpacks, past chicken processing plants, after dark. Honey, look how close the airport is to town, from 1,000' and 120 kts. Hehe.

Beats the alternative.
 
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