The cost of owning?

[Jay Honeck]

I disagree. It is a simple fact that among my expensive hobbies it definitely is the most expensive. And it is not just the most expensive, it outstrips everything else by order of magnitude. In fact, my flying expense not only dwarfs the discretionary spending, it exceeds my mortgage payments.

We have GOT to stop living in denial about the expense of flying. Only then the solutions can be found.

-- Pete

That's just silly.

My TOTAL investment in the Ercoupe is $6,000. That's a six, with only three zeroes after it. (I have two other partners in the plane.)

To put that in perspective, my new Suzuki GSX650F was (amazingly) EXACTLY $6,000 in July.

To put that even more in perspective, I paid exactly $6,000 for my 1986 Honda Goldwing, new-in-the-crate -- way back in 1988.

We rent the 'Coupe to our kids for $15/hour, DRY. (They have to put some car gas in it.). Sure, it's not my Pathfinder, which is several orders of magnitude more capable AND expensive -- but it's a real airplane what will get you across the country in comfort and (really cool!) style. Every line-guy (and anyone else around) comes out to see you, cuz they're getting more rare every day.

Flying is NOT expensive -- if you don't want it to be.

Until we stop pretending that it takes some sort of superman to fly, we will continue to see General Aviation decline.

 

[AA5Bman]

That's just silly.

My TOTAL investment in the Ercoupe is $6,000. That's a six, with only three zeroes after it. (I have two other partners in the plane.)

To put that in perspective, my new Suzuki GSX650F was (amazingly) EXACTLY $6,000 in July.

To put that even more in perspective, I paid exactly $6,000 for my 1986 Honda Goldwing, new-in-the-crate -- way back in 1988.

We rent the 'Coupe to our kids for $15/hour, DRY. (They have to put some car gas in it.). Sure, it's not my Pathfinder, which is several orders of magnitude more capable AND expensive -- but it's a real airplane what will get you across the country in comfort and (really cool!) style. Every line-guy (and anyone else around) comes out to see you, cuz they're getting more rare every day.

Flying is NOT expensive -- if you don't want it to be.

Until we stop pretending that it takes some sort of superman to fly, we will continue to see General Aviation decline.

Jay and I are on the same page. Only difference is that I'm too embarrassed to list the other hobbies that rival (or exceed) my flying spend...

 

[zaitcev]

To put that in perspective, my new Suzuki GSX650F was (amazingly) EXACTLY $6,000 in July.

When was the last annual on that Suzuki? How about any Roadworthiness Directives? Also, does it burn 5.9 gallons an hour at the best efficiency settings? No to mention you don't need to share it with any partners.

But your biggest fallacy is not how you wave operating costs away when it's conventient for your argument. It is how you compare a pilot who went to insane and frankly unattainable lengths to be frugal, with an average person whose time is also money. I know people who reduce operating costs of their cars by maintaining their equivalents of Ercoupes themselves. They can overhaul their gearboxes and know where every junkyard is located within the metropolitain area. And they are on the fringe, and their numbers dwindle just like numbers of GA pilots.

A related problem is how almost nobody can get where you are now without a significant expense, which the comparison with a motorcycle completely ignores. You have the knowledge how to be frugal in your head, and the beginner does not. You also have the pilot's certificate, which the beginner does not. If he goes and buys an Ercoupe, he's not going to pay your $6K. He has to find an instructor and pay him first. He has to find all the stuff that's in your flight bag and in your hangar. He has to pay the rent to T-hangar or tie-down (again you may have ways around it already, but he has to relocate somewhere where he can park the plane for free -- after he finds a new job). He has to learn all the things you're taking for granted and learnig costs the money.

The idea that "I know how to fly cheap and I fly cheap, therefore everyone can fly cheap" is completely, utterly bogus.

-- Pete

 

[Jim Logajan]

Flying is NOT expensive -- if you don't want it to be.

Well I think flying is expensive. Alas. If it had been less expensive, I wouldn't have put it off til I was over 50 years old when I had the spare time and money.

For what it is worth, I think I now know why small GA airplanes sold so well up through the 1970's, and then sales dropped off the proverbial cliff. The sales decline started with an important event that only a handful of people seem to have recognized (first read about it in a book by James Fallows; didn't believe it till I came across the statistics more recently.) The decline in student starts appears to have coincided with the same event.

When I find the time, I should start a thread about it.

 

[Ddayle]

maybe not cheap, but affordable. I know guys who spend a lot more on a NHRA legal race car, and it is still a hobby. they have a license meet tech standards and buy fuel more expensive than ours.. I paid more for 112 octane race gas for my bikes than i do for 100LL . I don't know where you live but boaters DO need some sort of licensees & or certificate and training up here. the system is just beginning but boater training is mandatory here. the coast guard ramp checks for safety items and current license. we also have M/C classes & licenses.

 

[Henning]

maybe not cheap, but affordable. I know guys who spend a lot more on a NHRA legal race car, and it is still a hobby. they have a license meet tech standards and buy fuel more expensive than ours.. I paid more for 112 octane race gas for my bikes than i do for 100LL . I don't know where you live but boaters DO need some sort of licensees & or certificate and training up here. the system is just beginning but boater training is mandatory here. the coast guard ramp checks for safety items and current license. we also have M/C classes & licenses.

30 years ago I was paying $25 a gallon for nitromethane and using almost 5 gallons for a burnout and a pass.

 

[dmccormack]

Well I think flying is expensive. Alas. If it had been less expensive, I wouldn't have put it off til I was over 50 years old when I had the spare time and money.

For what it is worth, I think I now know why small GA airplanes sold so well up through the 1970's, and then sales dropped off the proverbial cliff. The sales decline started with an important event that only a handful of people seem to have recognized (first read about it in a book by James Fallows; didn't believe it till I came across the statistics more recently.) The decline in student starts appears to have coincided with the same event.

When I find the time, I should start a thread about it.

The decline is based on several factors, the first being the declining pilot population. In addition:

• The Old GI Bill paid for everything.
• Lot's of fairly young men had lots of expereince with aircraft, machinery, and dangerous stuff (wars do that)
• The liability scam isn't what it is today
• There was no GARA (which shifted the pockets from manufacturers to owners and still extant shops)
• Popular media glorified pilots and aviation
• NASA was hot, and everybody wanted to be an astronaut or at least wear the same sunglasses
• More free time
• More disposable income (relatively speaking)
• Stability in markets and perceived job security (illusion that it was)
• Government encouragement and subsidy (more aviatin' is a good thing)

 

[wabower]

It's not as silly as your attempt to use an isolated example that might apply to 1% of the potential student starts as the rationalization for your "flying is a cheap date" premise.

The deal with your partners and your kids isn't a realistic indicator of the market, nor does it include any training, maintenance, insurance, or capital recovery costs that would be necessary to utilize the plane for the general public.

That's just silly.

My TOTAL investment in the Ercoupe is $6,000. That's a six, with only three zeroes after it. (I have two other partners in the plane.)

To put that in perspective, my new Suzuki GSX650F was (amazingly) EXACTLY $6,000 in July.

To put that even more in perspective, I paid exactly $6,000 for my 1986 Honda Goldwing, new-in-the-crate -- way back in 1988.

We rent the 'Coupe to our kids for $15/hour, DRY. (They have to put some car gas in it.). Sure, it's not my Pathfinder, which is several orders of magnitude more capable AND expensive -- but it's a real airplane what will get you across the country in comfort and (really cool!) style. Every line-guy (and anyone else around) comes out to see you, cuz they're getting more rare every day.

Flying is NOT expensive -- if you don't want it to be.

Until we stop pretending that it takes some sort of superman to fly, we will continue to see General Aviation decline.

 

[Dr. O]

I talk to a lot of people every day and a number of them ask about my plane and about flying... 99% say they can't afford it... Then they tell me about their summer golf, and winter skiing, and the jet skis, and the condo up North, and the new car, and the trip to Cabo - I agree they can't afford to fly...

denny-o

 

[wabower]

Did any of them feel incomplete, inadequate, deficient or unfulfilled relative to their ability to "slip the surly bounds of earth?"

I talk to a lot of people every day and a number of them ask about my plane and about flying... 99% say they can't afford it... Then they tell me about their summer golf, and winter skiing, and the jet skis, and the condo up North, and the new car, and the trip to Cabo - I agree they can't afford to fly...

denny-o

 

[dmccormack]

Another relevant -- but barely mentioned -- factor is suitability as a family or spouse activity.

Many families and/ or spouses will travel in motorhomes, camp out of trailers, float along on boats, jet ski along, golf together -- et cetera.

The number of same spouses and family members who actually enjoy droning along in the right seat on a bumpy day with no air conditioning is a bit less.

 

[jsstevens]

Well I think flying is expensive. Alas. If it had been less expensive, I wouldn't have put it off til I was over 50 years old when I had the spare time and money.

For what it is worth, I think I now know why small GA airplanes sold so well up through the 1970's, and then sales dropped off the proverbial cliff. The sales decline started with an important event that only a handful of people seem to have recognized (first read about it in a book by James Fallows; didn't believe it till I came across the statistics more recently.) The decline in student starts appears to have coincided with the same event.

When I find the time, I should start a thread about it.

Can you give us a hint?

John

 

[John Baker]

I think Dan McCormacK hit on a major one:

"Lot's of fairly young men had lots of expereince with aircraft, machinery, and dangerous stuff (wars do that"

Being in retail custom picture framing, I get to meet a lot of people, most have the money. I have heard more than a few times that they would love to do it, but they have kids, or a baby on the way, or their wives wont go for it, etc. They do consider it to be a dangerous endeavor.

My next door neighbor has his ticket, but gave it up when his wife became pregnant with their first, now his two kids are teenagers and he still is not interested. He is a harbor pilot, more than enough money if he wanted to do it again.

My older brother will not even sit in my plane when it is chained to the tarmac, he is terrified of small planes. He gave me a ride to the airport when I took my introductory flight. When I got back he kept saying he could not believe I actually rode in that airplane. I was in the airborne, so I never even thought about it being dangerous, I still don't consider it dangerous.

I think a whole lot more people than we realize, do consider it to be a very dangerous activity.

John

 

[jsstevens]

John,

That is an excellent point. I read a similar assessment of sports car racing and hod rodding in the 50's and 60's. If you've been being shot at, those seem pretty tame risks. As more and more risks get removed from our everyday experience our threshold of what's acceptable goes down. In racing, safety and safety equipment became more and more important. But it was not a single event, more of a progression.

But the earlier comment was in regards to a specific event. And I'm not sure what he's speaking of although I was alive and aware during that time. Fuel crisis? Disco? Tramatic perhaps, but not killing GA as we know it.

Anyway, I looked up the author mentioned and his books and I didn't see an obvious connection. Short of buying and reading the books (which is not going to happen for me right now), I wonder what he's speaking of?

John

 

[dmccormack]

Anyway, I looked up the author mentioned and his books and I didn't see an obvious connection. Short of buying and reading the books (which is not going to happen for me right now), I wonder what he's speaking of?

John

Jim Fallows has been writing about aviation for a while in The Atlantic Monthly and elsewhere. He's a very good writer, even though I don't agree with all his conclusions.

 

[Everskyward]

Jim Fallows has been writing about aviation for a while in The Atlantic Monthly and elsewhere. He's a very good writer, even though I don't agree with all his conclusions.

Freedom of the Skies was published in June 2001. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.

Everyone knows about the horrors of modern air travel. What almost no one
knows is how inventors, entrepreneurs, and government visionaries have
teamed up to create new kinds of small planes that can take off from and land
almost anywhere. "Escape From Airline Hell" the scenario might be called,
and it's coming soon to an airport near you.

 

[dmccormack]

Freedom of the Skies was published in June 2001. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.

Is that somehow different from Free Flight: Inventing the Future of Travel ?

 

[Everskyward]

Is that somehow different from Free Flight: Inventing the Future of Travel ?

I think Free Flight is a book whereas Freedom of the Skies is a link to an article in The Atlantic.

 

[dmccormack]

I think Free Flight is a book whereas Freedom of the Skies is a link to an article in The Atlantic.

OK.. I have that in my stack of Atlantics somewhere. I read it when it came out, thought "Nice, but... a dreamer..." and that's been that.

 

[Jim Logajan]

Can you give us a hint?

John

First, let's look at the statistics. Check out this useful document - specifically the tables and graphs on pages 22 to 24:

http://www.gama.aero/files/documents/GA_Statistical_Databook_and_Industry_Outlook_0.pdf

Sales didn't just gradually decline over the years - they plummeted right after 1978. In 1978 manufacturers shipped 14,398 single engine airplanes. In 5 years that dropped to 1,811. (Table 1.8, single-engine column.) Unprecedented. From '78 to '81, prices for single engine land airplanes rose only an average of 13%/year (from SEL columns of tables 1.8 and 1.9.) (There was a 40% rise from '81 to '82 - when sales had fallen so far that amortization of fixed costs started to dominate per unit costs.) The GAMA report doesn't contain data for SEL prior to '78 in table 1.9, but the average price for all GA planes from '75 to '78 rose only 12%/year (computed from table 1.7.)

So 12% rises per year pre-drop and 13% rises per year post-drop.

Ergo:
The dramatic decline in single engine land airplane sales was not due to any dramatic rise in prices.

The only thing the statistics show is that fixed costs (and fixed liabilities, like insurance premiums which are tied to the number of planes already sold - i.e. existing fleet size) began to dominate after the sales plunge began. Liability insurance overhead wasn't a cause, it was an effect.

So maybe the decline was due to fewer private pilots? Well take a look here:

http://www.aopa.org/newsroom/statistics/pilots.html

The number of private pilots peaked in 1980, with the most number of students in 1979. The numbers peaked slightly after the decline in sales had begun.

Was it all caused by the sharp rise in oil in 1979? If so, why would it not have recovered when costs dropped? And why would GA sales be affected in 1979 when they weren't in 1973? All forms of transportation would have been similarly affected by increases in fuel costs.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis)

The reason suggested by James Fallows (and Vern Rayburn formerly of Eclipse Aviation) in his book "Free Flight" (Chapter 3, "The GA Mafia") appears to be this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_Deregulation_Act

So prior to airline deregulation in 1978, using private airplanes was a competitive alternative to travel by airlines. Thanks to government dictating routes, flight schedules, and fares for airlines. After deregulation, the hub-and-spoke model the airlines adopted caused fares to drop 30% to 40% (http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv21n2/airline2-98.pdf , http://libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/books-online/Dereg.pdf )

So once upon a time single engine airplanes were a competitive mode of transportation, which is why they sold so well for so long. When the government's direct meddling in air transport economics was reduced, SEL airplanes couldn't compete.

So if this theory is correct, the way to return SEL GA to its glory days would be for the U.S. government to dictate high airline fares like they used to.

 

[dmccormack]

So if this theory is correct, the way to return SEL GA to its glory days would be for the U.S. government to dictate high airline fares like they used to.

A better course would be to remove the Deep Pockets rule in Tort claims so that companies wouldn't be exposed when employees flew on company business.

Just as likely to happen...

 

[timrj]

So once upon a time single engine airplanes were a competitive mode of transportation, which is why they sold so well for so long. When the government's direct meddling in air transport economics was reduced, SEL airplanes couldn't compete.

So if this theory is correct, the way to return SEL GA to its glory days would be for the U.S. government to dictate high airline fares like they used to.

Actually, given the airline industry failures, the passengers are getting low fares subsidized by creditors and shareholders of the airlines.

If airlines actually charged prices that kept them in business GA would look more attractive.

 

[timrj]

Bingo! It is, frankly, neither.

flying isn't hard, but it is expensive.

 

[timrj]

That's just silly.

My TOTAL investment in the Ercoupe is $6,000. That's a six, with only three zeroes after it. (I have two other partners in the plane.)

To put that in perspective, my new Suzuki GSX650F was (amazingly) EXACTLY $6,000 in July.

To put that even more in perspective, I paid exactly $6,000 for my 1986 Honda Goldwing, new-in-the-crate -- way back in 1988.

We rent the 'Coupe to our kids for $15/hour, DRY. (They have to put some car gas in it.). Sure, it's not my Pathfinder, which is several orders of magnitude more capable AND expensive -- but it's a real airplane what will get you across the country in comfort and (really cool!) style. Every line-guy (and anyone else around) comes out to see you, cuz they're getting more rare every day.

Flying is NOT expensive -- if you don't want it to be.

Until we stop pretending that it takes some sort of superman to fly, we will continue to see General Aviation decline.

That is almost a contrived ideal situation. In order to get to the point of finding that partnership you spent A LOT of money and time. Most new-to-aviation world people will never get that situation dropped in their lap.

There is the hurdle (not too difficult) of finding willing and trustworthy partners - then you have to find a cheap enough plane - but not so cheap it will be a maintenance nightmare. And you have to spend money up front for inspection, etc. Because of the very closed world of aviation this just insn't reasonable to expect that people who might be able to afford the 6k to 10k for a 1/4 share will find it.

The aviation/GA market is VERY inefficient and capital intensive. Period.

Your story is like a realtor saying "Oh, finding a cheap house is easy. I did it" - they snatch up the arbitrage deals quicker than you can shake a stick. Joe Shmo has no chance to find the same deals.

 

[Jim Logajan]

Actually, given the airline industry failures, the passengers are getting low fares subsidized by creditors and shareholders of the airlines.

If airlines actually charged prices that kept them in business GA would look more attractive.

Odd claim since news out just today says airline revenue and profits appear to be doing just fine:
http://247wallst.com/2010/10/14/airlines-will-have-record-profits-for-the-third-quarter/

 

[Everskyward]

So once upon a time single engine airplanes were a competitive mode of transportation, which is why they sold so well for so long. When the government's direct meddling in air transport economics was reduced, SEL airplanes couldn't compete.

So if this theory is correct, the way to return SEL GA to its glory days would be for the U.S. government to dictate high airline fares like they used to.

I don't know whether I buy that or not. I learned how to fly around the time of deregulation and I can't remember anyone trying to make a case for learning by comparing the price of flying yourself to that of an airline ticket. As I recall, most people I knew learned to fly because it was a hobby which appealed to them for whatever reason. I'd say that their motivation was pretty much the same then as it is for people now. I don't remember people being more or less afraid of the perceived danger and it's always been on the somewhat expensive side compared to what average people get paid.

The thing I do notice is that because technology has advanced a long ways since then that people expect all kinds of gadgetry in their airplanes and some feel uncomfortable without it.

 

[zaitcev]

The thing I do notice is that because technology has advanced a long ways since then that people expect all kinds of gadgetry in their airplanes and some feel uncomfortable without it.

This reminds me how car pundits complain that iPod and Droid are reasons why the car ownership plunged so much among the young in the last decade or two. Internet is the best pot. And you thought GA pilots were in trouble because we lose 700 pilots a year. Car people literally were losing a few millions drivers every year.
-- Pete

 

[jsstevens]

First, let's look at the statistics. [snip]

Thank you. This is exactly what I was looking for. And it makes economic sense-mass carriers are more fuel & cost efficient _per passenger mile_ and always will be. They are just not as flexible on terminus. We see the same thing with freight-ships are cheapest per ton mile with trains being second. But you need a truck to get it to your door.

John

 

[Jim Logajan]

I don't know whether I buy that or not. I learned how to fly around the time of deregulation and I can't remember anyone trying to make a case for learning by comparing the price of flying yourself to that of an airline ticket. As I recall, most people I knew learned to fly because it was a hobby which appealed to them for whatever reason. I'd say that their motivation was pretty much the same then as it is for people now. I don't remember people being more or less afraid of the perceived danger and it's always been on the somewhat expensive side compared to what average people get paid.

The thing I do notice is that because technology has advanced a long ways since then that people expect all kinds of gadgetry in their airplanes and some feel uncomfortable without it.

But GA sales trended up for decades prior to 1978 and declined sharply and almost permanently after 1978. Personal computers were just being introduced and the global Internet hadn't appeared. People who would have pursued flying didn't simply switch from wanting to fly to wanting to take up stamp collecting. Or that there was a sudden case of mass fear caused pilot prospects to take up down hill skiing instead.

It always helps if a theory explains the facts, and "change in hobbies" doesn't really explain the decline, or why it happened when it happened. If, as you say, motivation hasn't changed, then the same percentage of the population would still be pilots. But the facts don't support that. And ascribing your own motivations to a larger population doesn't seem justified - at least in this case.

What happened starting around 1978 to cause people to move away from wanting to fly and own their own aircraft? Why did it happen in a few short years? As I pointed out, aircraft prices were rising in price at roughly the same rate when sales were booming as well as when sales started plummeting. People keep mixing up cause and effect when they claim liability insurance was the cause of GA decline. The only other plausible theory is the cost reached some sort of trigger level.

 

[wabower]

The prime interest rate in Jan 1978 was 8%. In December it had increased almost 50%, to 11.75%. By December of 1979 it had risen 10 15.25%, and peaked in April of 1980 at 20%.

How much rocket surgery is required to figure out why airplane sales plummeted?

PS: 1980 was also marked by the worst gasoline shortage we had seen to date. Every newscast opened with pictures and stories of long lines at the pumps. Airplane fuel was scarce as well, my Aerostar was parked on the ramp in Booneville, Mo, waiting for a new mag, and somebody siphoned the mains. Every X/C trip started with a call to the destination airport to determine if fuel was to be had.

Gas prices soared, and we weren't sure whether we could get to work. I lived on the ranch and drove two Benz cars, a GMC pickup and a couple of kid cars of whatever kind were popular then. I ran down to the Toyota store and bought a Tercel hatchback coupe for 5k, one of the best cars I ever had except for the small (13") tires that would go flat every time I hit a pothole.

 

[Jim Logajan]

The prime interest rate in Jan 1978 was 8%. In December it had increased almost 50%, to 11.75%. By December of 1979 it had risen 10 15.25%, and peaked in April of 1980 at 20%.

How much rocket surgery is required to figure out why airplane sales plummeted?

In 1980 airplane sales had dipped ~35% from their '78 peak. There wasn't any correlation between SEL airplane sales to interest rates after 1980. Why did sales continue to plummet even after interest rates started to decline?

Also, how does the interest rate affect on SEL airplanes compare to it affects on sales of homes, cars, and non-aviation recreational vehicles?

 

[wabower]

Everything stopped in 1980, including the rain. The homebuilders had already gone bust, and the economy was in the dumper. It was the end of Carter's only term, and the country was learning to live under a different set of rules. Last trade surplus was in '75 (second oil embargo) and things had started to slip a little, the Iran hostage crisis drug on forever after late '79, and discretionary spending for everything stopped. I was thinking about buying a new airplane at the time, but things were so scary I didn't do so until January of 1982.

In 1980 airplane sales had dipped ~35% from their '78 peak. There wasn't any correlation between SEL airplane sales to interest rates after 1980. Why did sales continue to plummet even after interest rates started to decline?

Also, how does the interest rate affect on SEL airplanes compare to it affects on sales of homes, cars, and non-aviation recreational vehicles?

 

[John Baker]

A new, basic airplane costs around 250K, about the same as a house. I pay 1K a year for 50K worth of airplane insurance, so I guess insurance on a 250K airplane would be about 5K a year. All this expense for something that will probably average around two hours of use per week. Then if you add on maintenance and fuel, you are probably talking around $2,500. to $3,000 per month to own a new airplane, assuming you financed it. That works out to be about 275-300 dollars an hour. Oops, I forgot hangar cost, your not going to leave a brand new airplane tied down to the ramp. Make that 375-400 dollars an hour to own and fly a new airplane.

I think you would need a pretty decent job if you want to fly brand new. Some folks don't like the idea of flying in a thirty year old airplane, which are probably the most used in the GA fleet. Even those old crates can average comfortably over a hundred dollars an hour to own and operate. You still need fairly good employment, unless your a trust fund kid.

Being an airplane owner is not cheap, nor is being a renter, but it is a whole lot less.

Any way you look at it though, we, in this country, have it a lot better than most other western bureaucratized countries. Then again, those countries do not have as much involvement in GA as we do here. We are working hard to catch up to them though.

John

 

[dmccormack]

A new, basic airplane costs around 250K, about the same as a house.

John

What???

Trust me -- plenty of airplane can be had for 10% of that figure.

 

[John Baker]

What???

Trust me -- plenty of airplane can be had for 10% of that figure.

I'm talking brand new from the factory, planes like a Cessna 172 or a Piper warrior or archer, Husky, etc. I'm not talking about kits or light sport.

Heck, they are almost giving away used airplanes now.

John

 

[Everskyward]

It always helps if a theory explains the facts, and "change in hobbies" doesn't really explain the decline, or why it happened when it happened. If, as you say, motivation hasn't changed, then the same percentage of the population would still be pilots. But the facts don't support that. And ascribing your own motivations to a larger population doesn't seem justified - at least in this case.

I just don't remember people talking about the advantage of flying themselves in lieu of taking an airline. But then I don't remember people trying to justify their hobby nearly as much as people seem to do now. I sure didn't (and it was purely a hobby for me back then).

What happened starting around 1978 to cause people to move away from wanting to fly and own their own aircraft? Why did it happen in a few short years? As I pointed out, aircraft prices were rising in price at roughly the same rate when sales were booming as well as when sales started plummeting. People keep mixing up cause and effect when they claim liability insurance was the cause of GA decline. The only other plausible theory is the cost reached some sort of trigger level.

I think Wayne has it right when he talks about the economy and the gas shortage. Those are only vague memories for me but I do remember my peers in college worrying about finding jobs after graduation just like people do now. The stock market was down and inflation and interest rates were up. We had odd/even days for filling our cars, at least we did in California. I thought that was why Carter got the boot in 1980, malaise and all.

Besides, I think the popularity of certain hobbies come and go. I remember when golf was an old businessman's sport and very few young people would consider picking up a club.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

What???

Trust me -- plenty of airplane can be had for 10% of that figure.

New? I don't think so...

 

[wabower]

Golf and GA are currently the same decline mode. Nascar is in the tank too.

I just don't remember people talking about the advantage of flying themselves in lieu of taking an airline. But then I don't remember people trying to justify their hobby nearly as much as people seem to do now. I sure didn't (and it was purely a hobby for me back then).

I think Wayne has it right when he talks about the economy and the gas shortage. Those are only vague memories for me but I do remember my peers in college worrying about finding jobs after graduation just like people do now. The stock market was down and inflation and interest rates were up. We had odd/even days for filling our cars, at least we did in California. I thought that was why Carter got the boot in 1978, malaise and all.

Besides, I think the popularity of certain hobbies come and go. I remember when golf was an old businessman's sport and very few young people would consider picking up a club.

 

[zaitcev]

A new, basic airplane costs around 250K, about the same as a house.

I agree with the rest of the sentiment, but a new LSA can be had for about 100K (last I shopped CTLS was 106K fly-away). This helps a little if you are willing to sacrifice the mission capability, e.g. not IFR qualified and/or do not need 4 seats. They are excellent airplanes otherwise. I can't help but noticing though... Back in 2001 I saw a Cherokee and a Skyhawk at airshow in Watsonville, CA. Both were stickered at exactly same price 180K. How comes the prices climbed this much despite the glut of used airplanes?
-- Pete

 

[Everskyward]

Golf and GA are currently the same decline mode.

But golf had a resurgence there for awhile judging by the number of golf courses that sprung up in the past 20 years. It may be on the decline now. I heard that skiing is having the same problem too.

Nascar is in the tank too.

I could never figure out why anyone would want to watch cars going around and around and around for hundreds of miles.