TBD down in western NY

[flyingcheesehead]

Its only the factual report when the docket is released. The probable cause will be issued with the final report.

This happened in 2020. I was under the impression that a final had been released, but at this point, they'll likely issue a final without a cause, or it'll get stuck in limbo for years.

 

[Bell206]

I was under the impression that a final had been released, but at this point, they'll likely issue a final without a cause, or it'll get stuck in limbo for years.

FYI: the NTSB is still working on a 18+ month backlog. But there will be a final report issued with a probable cause as required by rule. I know of several non-fatal accidents without final reports going over 2 years at this moment. There used to be a database that listed when the final would be posted once the factual was issued but can no longer find since they went to CAROL.

 

[Bell206]

Here is the NTSB factual report issued when the public docket was released:
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/102077/pdf

 

[3393RP]

They didn't put a probable cause on this one, but it kind of sounds like a medical event or depressurization based on what I've seen so far. Garbled speech, descent initiated, and that sudden roll could be the pilot slumping onto the yoke, or a control surface flying off though that shouldn't happen quite so soon after hitting Vmo.

Your characterization of events is probably correct, but due to the heavy fragmentation of the wreckage and the destruction of the pilot's body, a probable cause will likely never be articulated.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

FYI: the NTSB is still working on a 18+ month backlog. But there will be a final report issued with a probable cause as required by rule.

It may say "The NTSB determines the probable cause to be..." but that probable cause may well be "the aircraft flew into the ground for unknown reasons..." which to me isn't really a cause.

 

[Morgan3820]

“Owing to extensive abdominal trauma in aviation disasters (e.g. rupture of the viscera), interpretation of BAC in autopsy specimens from the pilot and crew is highly contentious and great care is needed to reach valid conclusions.”

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16782292/

Learned something new. Thanks

 

[Bell206]

It may say "The NTSB determines the probable cause to be..." but that probable cause may well be "the aircraft flew into the ground for unknown reasons..." which to me isn't really a cause.

True. Sometimes they can't connect the dots. But all's it takes is the right clue to tie everything togather. For example, they were at the "unknown reason" point on the one below when they found a trace of biologic material ground into the forward fuselage wreckage which led them to a bird strike jarred both throttles out of the flight detent causing the aircraft to hit in 11 seconds even though it had a 4 axis digital autopilot coupled. From my personal experience the last thing an NTSB investigator wants to list is "unknown reasons."