Student Starts & Pilot Retention

brien23

brien23

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Brien
I know this has been an issue of the past, what is the outlook from today forward. Around here Student Pilots are gone, airport traffic patterns that used to have 5 or more planes in the pattern are gone. Just who coming up behind us is going to buy my plane. I know some planes are selling but just how much longer till the supply is greater than those looking to buy and the bottom drops out like the twin market.:nonod:
 
No one is going to buy your plane. And possibly no one will buy your house. You have to accept that, play happy and plan accordingly. GA is perfect right now, if you are already in the game, tons of infrastructure lots of stuff and no crowds...
 
Doesn't seem to be falling off too much from my point of view.

If I were to look for troubles nowadays Id start here:

Our 9/11 "terrorist" security BS around every podunk airport doesn't help, people should feel welcome to come by their local airport and check things out, talk to pilots etc. 12' prison fences, razor wire, retina scanners and busy bodies don't help GA.

Poorly run flight schools and unsocial folks at the airport don't help much ether.

The FAA's ever expanding rule book also doesn't help.
 
Move to Texas.
Can't throw a rock around here without hitting a pilot.
Having not ever flown anywhere else, I would have assumed flying was a booming hobby.

I get sad when I hear about other parts of the country where it appears to be dying off.
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
Move to Texas.
Can't throw a rock around here without hitting a pilot.
Having not ever flown anywhere else, I would have assumed flying was a booming hobby.

I get sad when I hear about other parts of the country where it appears to be dying off.
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In the Dallas and Houston areas, thanks to a booming economy and growing population, the drop off in pilots has been minimized. (Which is one big reason we moved our aviation themed hotel down here, BTW.)

That said, compared to Wisconsin in the early '90s, aviation is pretty dead, even here. All one has to do is fly to any of the hundreds of "ghost airports" in Texas to know that.

Hell, I'm offering FREE night certificates to anyone who passes a checkride. We've had TWO (2) takers in three months. Pathetic. :no:
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
Move to Texas.
Can't throw a rock around here without hitting a pilot.
Having not ever flown anywhere else, I would have assumed flying was a booming hobby.

I get sad when I hear about other parts of the country where it appears to be dying off.
Click to expand...
Just what do you base that on is it more now than 5 years ago or less now.
 
brien23 said:
I know this has been an issue of the past, what is the outlook from today forward. Around here Student Pilots are gone, airport traffic patterns that used to have 5 or more planes in the pattern are gone. Just who coming up behind us is going to buy my plane. I know some planes are selling but just how much longer till the supply is greater than those looking to buy and the bottom drops out like the twin market.:nonod:
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The Apache? Nobody is going to buy, there's one on this board for sale at give away prices that no one will take.
 
brien23 said:
Just what do you base that on is it more now than 5 years ago or less now.
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Just personal experience I guess.
The 3 fields I have flown out of are usually packed. And the waiting list for hangar space at some of these fields is quite impressive.
 
Pretty long waiting list for a hangar at KSGJ too. Been on that list for nearly 2 years... pretty busy down here in Florida.
 
EminiTrader said:
Pretty long waiting list for a hangar at KSGJ too. Been on that list for nearly 2 years... pretty busy down here in Florida.
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It's next to nothing compared to 25 years ago. Most of the activity I see left is foreign student training.
 
We got plenty of retentive pilots around here....we could use some of the less uptight kind.
 
Very long waiting list for hangars here, and even a waiting list to build while the airport does something with their land.
 
Hangar waiting list woes within metropolitan areas have already been established to not be reflections of aggregate demand. The metropolitan fields know there's no profit to expand capacity and the overall volume is low enough they can just tell the waiting list losers to suck it up. There's plenty of hangars in bum fook, people just don't want to live there or drive 3 hours to their airplanes.
 
So how can we measure GA activity? For me I measure the number and frequency of planes taking off and landing at my GA airport or flying through the airport's airspace. On a good sunny VFR day on the weekends, the GA aircraft operations will be the highest but on rainy, snowy, cloudy IFR days, there is almost no GA aircraft operations, except maybe one or two IFR aircraft and that's all.

What do you think? Would measuring the number and frequency of aircraft operations at any given GA airport be representative of the overall activity of GA aircraft operations as a whole?
 
N918KT said:
So how can we measure GA activity? For me I measure the number and frequency of planes taking off and landing at my GA airport or flying through the airport's airspace. On a good sunny VFR day on the weekends, the GA aircraft operations will be the highest but on rainy, snowy, cloudy IFR days, there is almost no GA aircraft operations, except maybe one or two IFR aircraft and that's all.

What do you think? Would measuring the number and frequency of aircraft operations at any given GA airport be representative of the overall activity of GA aircraft operations as a whole?
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Nope. Could be 1% of the pilot population doing >90% of the flying. Hours and avgas are being consumed maybe that is OK, but I'd guess aside from raw hours you need a decent number of people for the activity to be sustainable. Of course none of the infrastructure is going to go away overnight so it doesn't really matter especially to the largest group of pilots, old people.
My prediction 1950's style GA will die(or already is dead.) People that want to fly will go european but with a murican twist(always add a motor) and fly paramotors and experimentals and stuff. Out of privately owned fun airports. Course those options are limited in suburbia, but alas most suburban dwellers wives prohibit them from anything fun anyway. Here is a picture of the future, note the lack of gov't funding and interference? No illusions of travel but GA travel sucks most of the time anyway.
 
Measuring flights at one GA airport is as representative a measure of national FA activity as counting traffic on one particular stretch oh highway to determine national driving trends.

One data point does not make a trend . . . Two points are necessary to even draw a line. Then there is this thing called "sampling" and "statistical relevance" that you must consider before analyzing the data.
 
ClimbnSink said:
Nope. Could be 1% of the pilot population doing >90% of the flying. Hours and avgas are being consumed maybe that is OK, but I'd guess aside from raw hours you need a decent number of people for the activity to be sustainable. Of course none of the infrastructure is going to go away overnight so it doesn't really matter especially to the largest group of pilots, old people.
My prediction 1950's style GA will die(or already is dead.) People that want to fly will go european but with a murican twist(always add a motor) and fly paramotors and experimentals and stuff. Out of privately owned fun airports. Course those options are limited in suburbia, but alas most suburban dwellers wives prohibit them from anything fun anyway. Here is a picture of the future, note the lack of gov't funding and interference? No illusions of travel but GA travel sucks most of the time anyway.
Click to expand...

If we turn our airspace into the f' feast that is Europe that will be disastrous.

There are not many postive areas we can say without hesitation America is #1 at anymore, aviation still is one area where we kick butt and it would be very sad to loose that.
 
Don't just look at the low end market. I don't have the data for 2014 but 2013 had 933 new piston planes sold and 2012 had 908 new piston plane shipments. Half of those remained in North America. So let's say 500 new piston planes entering the NA market every year. It's not great but not too bad either considering the cost of buying new these days. There are about 300 new turboprop planes entering the NA market annually too. So ignoring business jets which is another animal altogether, we're looking at about 800 new prop planes being registered each year in the US. Like I said that's not too bad if you consider the price of entry.

The pilot population is declining but you could argue there was a glut from earlier decades and that the annual decrease is a natural consequence of that bulge from earlier passing on through the system and retiring similar to what we've seen in other areas with the Baby Boomers. What is the new steady state going to be? I don't know.

My prediction? Yes 1950's style GA will die but there will always be a relatively strong higher end market because if you can afford it there is no better hobby that can be used usefully for business purposes. Along with this there will also continue to be a good middle market as well for those planes that are 10-20 years old. There will always be the lower end market but you don't want to be caught there.
 
I have come to the conclusion, sadly, that my main hobbies hunting/shooting and flying are pretty much doomed in the long run. It would be great to think there will be a long term future for these things but at this point I am just hoping to preserve them until I am unable to do them anymore in 20 to 30 years (tops). This is admittedly a bit selfish but neither of my kids are really interested and while it would be nice to think I am fighting for the future generations ability to enjoy these things I just don't see it happening unless there is some sort of major change in this country.
 
Actually we will make out airspace worse then Europe. ADS-B makes it possible and easy.
James331 said:
If we turn our airspace into the f' feast that is Europe that will be disastrous.

There are not many postive areas we can say without hesitation America is #1 at anymore, aviation still is one area where we kick butt and it would be very sad to loose that.
Click to expand...
 
Jay Honeck said:
In the Dallas and Houston areas, thanks to a booming economy and growing population, the drop off in pilots has been minimized. (Which is one big reason we moved our aviation themed hotel down here, BTW.)

That said, compared to Wisconsin in the early '90s, aviation is pretty dead, even here. All one has to do is fly to any of the hundreds of "ghost airports" in Texas to know that.

Hell, I'm offering FREE night certificates to anyone who passes a checkride. We've had TWO (2) takers in three months. Pathetic. :no:
Click to expand...

I have 28 form 8410s in my log book. All marked satisfactory. Can I trade those for a two week stay? :lol:
 
Jay Honeck said:
Hell, I'm offering FREE night certificates to anyone who passes a checkride. We've had TWO (2) takers in three months. Pathetic. :no:
Click to expand...

Does a Type Ride count? And what is the statute of limitations on the offer?:D
 
$250.00 wing nuts that should cost fifty cents might have a little to do with it. :nonod:
 
sixpacker said:
Don't just look at the low end market. I don't have the data for 2014 but 2013 had 933 new piston planes sold and 2012 had 908 new piston plane shipments. Half of those remained in North America. So let's say 500 new piston planes entering the NA market every year. It's not great but not too bad either considering the cost of buying new these days. There are about 300 new turboprop planes entering the NA market annually too. So ignoring business jets which is another animal altogether, we're looking at about 800 new prop planes being registered each year in the US. Like I said that's not too bad if you consider the price of entry.

The pilot population is declining but you could argue there was a glut from earlier decades and that the annual decrease is a natural consequence of that bulge from earlier passing on through the system and retiring similar to what we've seen in other areas with the Baby Boomers. What is the new steady state going to be? I don't know.

My prediction? Yes 1950's style GA will die but there will always be a relatively strong higher end market because if you can afford it there is no better hobby that can be used usefully for business purposes. Along with this there will also continue to be a good middle market as well for those planes that are 10-20 years old. There will always be the lower end market but you don't want to be caught there.
Click to expand...

Compare those numbers to boats in the $500,000 (cheap piece of crap for new) and up range.
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
Move to Texas.
Can't throw a rock around here without hitting a pilot.
Having not ever flown anywhere else, I would have assumed flying was a booming hobby.

I get sad when I hear about other parts of the country where it appears to be dying off.
Click to expand...

It might start to pick back up a little with the gas prices declining. There's enough activity at my home field (KGTU) that the gas prices are steadily falling...down to $3.35 right now. That's .20/gal cheaper than it was on Christmas Eve when I flew over to Houston to pick my Mom up to stay with us over the holidays.

I would have said when I was doing my PPL training 2 years ago that I'd never see it below $4/gal in my lifetime but here I am thinking it's possible to see it below $3. :dunno:

If that happens, I'd expect to see a lot more folks flying...

Now, who knows how long those prices will hang around for...they could easily go back up just as fast...but I'm enjoying it while it lasts. :)
 
txflyer said:
$250.00 wing nuts that should cost fifty cents might have a little to do with it. :nonod:
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HAHA no joke. We replaced a starter solenoid in our PA-28 235. It said "Chrysler" on the part so we knew that back in 1964 they were pulling from the same part bin. However, in this day and age...we could find the same car part for under $20. We obviously took the FAA certified part route and paid $125.

And this is a starter solenoid...a piece of metal with no moving parts that at the most costs someone $5 to make.

It does get old...
 
txflyer said:
$250.00 wing nuts that should cost fifty cents might have a little to do with it. :nonod:
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As is the generally unfriendly and broken presentation of most FBOs and flight schools.

Most CFIs and school owners need a Biz 101 refresher.:yes: I'm sure they could be a little more discouraging to potential pilots, but they'd have to work at it.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Does a Type Ride count? And what is the statute of limitations on the offer?:D
Click to expand...

Here's the deal:

If you have passed your Private Pilot (or Sport Pilot) check ride in the last 90 days, you score a free certificate good for one free night in any of our aviation themed rooms at Amelia's Landing Hotel.

Your stay includes breakfast delivered to your room. If you fly in, you get free use of our courtesy car (first come, first served).

Great deal, right? Incredibly, we have had just 2 takers since I started offering this a few months ago.

Now, I know I'm not paying to advertising this -- why should I? -- and I've only put the word out on this little forum -- but how pathetic are today's CFIs that they don't have this offer printed out and hanging in every FBO in America, overnight, as an incentive for their students to finish?

Like I said: Pathetic.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Here's the deal:

If you have passed your Private Pilot (or Sport Pilot) check ride in the last 90 days, you score a free certificate good for one free night in any of our aviation themed rooms at Amelia's Landing Hotel.

Your stay includes breakfast delivered to your room. If you fly in, you get free use of our courtesy car (first come, first served).

Great deal, right? Incredibly, we have had just 2 takers since I started offering this a few months ago.

Now, I know I'm not paying to advertising this -- why should I? -- and I've only put the word out on this little forum -- but how pathetic are today's CFIs that they don't have this offer printed out and hanging in every FBO in America, overnight, as an incentive for their students to finish?

Like I said: Pathetic.
Click to expand...

My students, mostly yuppies and middle aged guys wanting to feel the thrill of their youth, wouldn't be able to afford the $2k flight there and back (at best), and the time away from work. I would do it, but it would be easier to just take 20 $100 hamburgers and take family and friends along for the ride. Now, if you lived closer to Seattle (hint, move up here), I would be all over that.
 
nimdabew said:
My students, mostly yuppies and middle aged guys wanting to feel the thrill of their youth, wouldn't be able to afford the $2k flight there and back (at best), and the time away from work. I would do it, but it would be easier to just take 20 $100 hamburgers and take family and friends along for the ride. Now, if you lived closer to Seattle (hint, move up here), I would be all over that.
Click to expand...

No one in their right mind lives in Seattle. :lol:

Seriously, just when you think it couldn't get any worse, it does. I went flying this afternoon, and there was no one -- NO ONE -- flying.

Of course, then I realized that the Cowboys were playing the Lions, and everyone for 600 miles in any direction in Texas was watching TV. :D

But seriously, when I learned to fly twenty years ago, this kind of an offer would have been big news, and on every bulletin board at every FBO. "Fly to Mustang Island this winter, and stay FOR FREE -- all you have to do is pass your check-ride!"

So spread the word. Generate some buzz. Show some life, GA -- I'm tired of watching you wither and die.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Here's the deal:

If you have passed your Private Pilot (or Sport Pilot) check ride in the last 90 days, you score a free certificate good for one free night in any of our aviation themed rooms at Amelia's Landing Hotel.

Your stay includes breakfast delivered to your room. If you fly in, you get free use of our courtesy car (first come, first served).

Great deal, right? Incredibly, we have had just 2 takers since I started offering this a few months ago.

Now, I know I'm not paying to advertising this -- why should I? -- and I've only put the word out on this little forum -- but how pathetic are today's CFIs that they don't have this offer printed out and hanging in every FBO in America, overnight, as an incentive for their students to finish?

Like I said: Pathetic.
Click to expand...


Ahh ok. I was thinking you meant some sort of aviation cert. That does sound like a good deal! Wish I had known a little while ago. I just passed my check ride in august :p
 
I've said it many times before, if you want new blood in GA and to get it to grow, a major social aspect needs to be added that doesn't revolve around old men telling kids to get off their lawn.

We also need a much more practical rental infrastructure that allows for planes to rent one way across and all around the country, but that would require communism to make practical.
 
Ladies fly free. Hot young ladies that is. Old lady pilots would be ****ed if there was competition in the limp sausage factory we call GA.
Henning said:
I've said it many times before, if you want new blood in GA and to get it to grow, a major social aspect needs to be added that doesn't revolve around old men telling kids to get off their lawn.

We also need a much more practical rental infrastructure that allows for planes to rent one way across and all around the country, but that would require communism to make practical.
Click to expand...
 
It is dead in SE Ohio/NE Ky/SW West Virginia area.

Nobody wants to fly on those "dangerous little planes" where a child gets pulled out over Florida and another is the sole survivor in Ky. Poor training, ADM, safety practices and poor maintenance are rarely mentioned on the news. How many times do they mention the thousands of successful GA flights that occur everyday?
 
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RV10flyer said:
It is dead in SE Ohio/NE Ky/SW West Virginia area.

Nobody wants to fly on those "dangerous little planes" where a child gets pulled out over Florida and another is the sole survivor in Ky. Poor training, ADM, safety practices and poor maintenance are rarely mentioned on the news. How many times do they mention the thousands of successful GA flights that occur everyday?
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GA being dead ain't the fault of the news.
 
Henning said:
We also need a much more practical rental infrastructure that allows for planes to rent one way across and all around the country, but that would require communism to make practical.
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Yeah, a concept like Zipcar for airplanes would be wonderful, but it would be a very expensive operation to start and maintain. I doubt the profits are there.
 
Bill Jennings said:
Yeah, a concept like Zipcar for airplanes would be wonderful, but it would be a very expensive operation to start and maintain. I doubt the profits are there.
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That is why I said it would require communism where profit is not the driving force of society.
 
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