Strategic and Tactical Wx decisions

Jaybird180

Jaybird180

Final Approach
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Jaybird180
Planning my longest XC to date. My family will be aboard for the ~500mi trip, so I want to make sure that all my weather training kicks in. What advice can you guys give about Fronts and Isobars (or anything else) that I may have forgotten since Groundschool?

The plane doesn't have on-board weather.:(
 
What's your route?

For rain... if I can't see through it during the day, I don't like to fly through it.
 
Jaybird180 said:
DC to Atlanta.
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If it's your first long trip with the family, plan to get to ATL area EARLY in the morn or LATE in the evening (dark+). Even if that means leaving DC before sunrise and having your pax sleep for the whole flight. It is HOT and humid here now and that does not equate to favorable flying conditions for new GA passengers. Depending on where in the ATL area you are going, you could be stuck under the Bravo shelf for quite a while. 20 minutes at 3,000' at 3pm instead of 8am could be the difference in you having passengers for the return trip, or you going broke from buying last minute airline ticket(s) back to DC.

This time of year, you will usually notice a well-defined haze layer anywhere from 3,000' to 9,000' (you'll know it when you see it). Try to get above it if at all possible - your passengers will thank you for it. The last couple of trips I've made, I've gone up to 10,000' for a trip that only took 1:15 to complete to get above that haze 'cap' - the difference in flying (and riding) conditions is enough of a difference that I was willing to spend the fuel to get up that high.
 
You aren't going to become a meteorologist so focus on the weather products that do the 'black magic' for you. Without any form of onboard weather you need to be extra vigilant and have at least two independent sources of weather. I use the NOAA AWC Prognostic Charts http://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/ and Accuweather (I have the premium subscription - well worth the money). Both will give you the forecast fronts, rain/thunder probabilities etc. 500 miles isn't a particularly long trip so the weather isn't likely to change much from the time you depart until you land. If the prog charts have a high probability of thunderstorms then avoid the heat of the afternoon; plan an early arrival. I typically start watching the forecasts about 5 days out. If the forecast is tracking with the actual and both models are tracking each other then you can be fairly confident in the forecast. If not; well be extra careful. Again, for 500 miles you're only talking a couple hours so a good check of the weather and radar along your route to include checking the METARS and TAF at a couple spots along the way should be sufficient. Don't forget to get flight following; they can provide some guidance should a pop up storm get in your way.

If you want to do more cross country trips look into buying a used Garmin 396 or 496 with the XM pod; worth every stinking penny.
 
Arrival is planned for 2p on 7/15. Planning a fuel stop and lunch loiter at either KMTV (direct) or KEOE (having to stop by in-laws first).
 
Jaybird180 said:
Planning my longest XC to date. My family will be aboard for the ~500mi trip, so I want to make sure that all my weather training kicks in. What advice can you guys give about Fronts and Isobars (or anything else) that I may have forgotten since Groundschool?
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The best advice I've heard is not to fly in or under black clouds...I think it's pretty good advice...:D

Front's aren't necessarily a problem, just pick your spot. If you can't find a good spot then maybe it's time to land.

Isobars? If they're close together then it's windy and maybe ya don't wanna be there. It's kinda like hiking and a topo map, don't try to walk where the contour lines merge...

Maybe learn to read the forecast soundings. Lot's of info in'm.
 
Clark1961 said:
The best advice I've heard is not to fly in or under black clouds...I think it's pretty good advice...:D

Front's aren't necessarily a problem, just pick your spot. If you can't find a good spot then maybe it's time to land.

Isobars? If they're close together then it's windy and maybe ya don't wanna be there. It's kinda like hiking and a topo map, don't try to walk where the contour lines merge...

Maybe learn to read the forecast soundings. Lot's of info in'm.
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Are they visible?
 
Be flexible with your departure, and like the folks said, earlier is better. You have onboard weather, its called a radio. There are AWOS and ASOS stations all over the place on your route, use them. Don't be afraid to call flight watch either.

The mountains often make wx this time of year (clouds and obscuration). You might think about going over it if you're certain it's clear on the other side.

Good luck. Post up when you get back.
 
CJones said:
If it's your first long trip with the family, plan to get to ATL area EARLY in the morn or LATE in the evening (dark+). Even if that means leaving DC before sunrise and having your pax sleep for the whole flight. It is HOT and humid here now and that does not equate to favorable flying conditions for new GA passengers. Depending on where in the ATL area you are going, you could be stuck under the Bravo shelf for quite a while. 20 minutes at 3,000' at 3pm instead of 8am could be the difference in you having passengers for the return trip, or you going broke from buying last minute airline ticket(s) back to DC.

This time of year, you will usually notice a well-defined haze layer anywhere from 3,000' to 9,000' (you'll know it when you see it). Try to get above it if at all possible - your passengers will thank you for it. The last couple of trips I've made, I've gone up to 10,000' for a trip that only took 1:15 to complete to get above that haze 'cap' - the difference in flying (and riding) conditions is enough of a difference that I was willing to spend the fuel to get up that high.
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Great advice. Early in the morning is less likely to have convective activity or building clouds. Hot afternoons make it much more likely.

Getting above the haze layer is also highly recommended. The higher you can get, the better you can see the tops. Coming back, higher should help you with tailwinds.
 
steingar said:
Be flexible with your departure, and like the folks said, earlier is better. You have onboard weather, its called a radio. There are AWOS and ASOS stations all over the place on your route, use them. Don't be afraid to call flight watch either.

The mountains often make wx this time of year (clouds and obscuration). You might think about going over it if you're certain it's clear on the other side.

Good luck. Post up when you get back.
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Considering I'm always talking to approach or ARTCC (VFR flight following) I'll have to get straightened out on 122.2 and 122.0 (which is which).
 
122.0 where I am. The one problem with FF is it gets more difficult to use the radio for anything else, like tracking wx. I use FF all the time, but I have xm on board. When I didn't, I stayed off the approach frequencies and spent a lot of time listening to wx stations. My reasoning was that the odds on a midair collision while in cruise were far, far lower than the odds of my hitting some wx I didn't like. I also wanted to be available to pax to answer questions and be sociable, something I can't do whilst waiting for someone to call my tail number.

Oh, and remember that you are PIC, and the freely offered opinions of spouse and spawn don't mean squat. Do not allow anyone to force/convince/cajole you into doing something you aren't comfortable doing. The Free Bird is the only place on the planet where I can tell Mrs. Steingar to STFU. I have done so, very brusquely, on a number of occasions. Don't be afraid to do so with your old lady and offspring. Their safety is far more important than their feelings. The one exception is if someone has to use the loo. They get an immediate descent no questions asked. An unplanned stop is far preferable to that kind of mess.

Do NOT try and keep to a schedule, you're just asking for it. Give your family a flight window, and have a cutoff where you will either scrub altogether or drive. Do NOT allow ANYONE to schedule ANYTHING within a few days (if not a week) of your expected arrival. If you don't have to get back for anything, you won't be tempted to try and fly in marginal or non permissive conditions. Do not allow anyone to pick you up at any airport, and give lots of provisos with your ETA. If they're at the airport and you run late, you could worry the hell out of them. Be flexible. You might have to land and wait out wx for a few hours. It happens to everyone.
 
Is it still possible to RENT a 496 with XM weather capability? I had a friend who did that a few years back, when the 496 was "the New Thang", and it made his flight to OSH from the Left Coast much nicer.

We have become utterly reliant on XM on long cross-country flights. It has changed EVERYTHING about making a trans-continental flight, enabling us to make a (for example) 2 degree course correction that will put us behind precipitation that is 800 miles away.

In the "olden days" (you know -- seven years ago) we would have flown a straight course right up to those black clouds, and take a wild-ass guess which way to turn. Or we would have landed. In either case, it was a GUESS. Now, it's a science.

Personally, I would look into borrowing or renting a GPS with on-board weather, and teach your wife how to use it. It will keep her occupied and happy, and make your trip a lot more enjoyable.
 
Use AIRNAV to look up the AWOS/ASOS phone numbers along your flight route and also for some airports a 100 miles to the West, paralleling that route.... Calling them direct gets you the weather right now... Start checking them every couple of hours a few days prior to your flight... You will quickly get a mental picture of what is happening along the route and what is coming and how fast it is moving...
Yes, I know that DUATS and many other sources give the same information on pretty colored maps, but I find that new pilots get a better feel for the dynamics of weather this way...

denny-o
 
steingar said:
Do NOT try and keep to a schedule, you're just asking for it. Give your family a flight window, and have a cutoff where you will either scrub altogether or drive. Do NOT allow ANYONE to schedule ANYTHING within a few days (if not a week) of your expected arrival. If you don't have to get back for anything, you won't be tempted to try and fly in marginal or non permissive conditions. Do not allow anyone to pick you up at any airport, and give lots of provisos with your ETA. If they're at the airport and you run late, you could worry the hell out of them. Be flexible. You might have to land and wait out wx for a few hours. It happens to everyone.
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What do you think of providing the information via flightaware.com and just letting them figure out when to show up?

I should have said fltplan.com
 
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Scott- I am seeing the variable winds. I check often (Lord only knows how many times I've changed or reviewed the route via FF).
 
Also, if possible, see if you can borrow a portable device which can depict weather in-flight.
 
ASI Weather Wise: Air Masses and Fronts

Do you understand the “why” behind the weather? Find out about the large-scale forces that drive the weather, and learn how to put that knowledge to work before your next flight (approx. 45-60 minutes).


http://flash.aopa.org/asf/wxwise_fronts/
 
Whats the latest time for morning you would recommend arrival? And earliest evening?

CJones said:
If it's your first long trip with the family, plan to get to ATL area EARLY in the morn or LATE in the evening (dark+). Even if that means leaving DC before sunrise and having your pax sleep for the whole flight. It is HOT and humid here now and that does not equate to favorable flying conditions for new GA passengers. Depending on where in the ATL area you are going, you could be stuck under the Bravo shelf for quite a while. 20 minutes at 3,000' at 3pm instead of 8am could be the difference in you having passengers for the return trip, or you going broke from buying last minute airline ticket(s) back to DC.

This time of year, you will usually notice a well-defined haze layer anywhere from 3,000' to 9,000' (you'll know it when you see it). Try to get above it if at all possible - your passengers will thank you for it. The last couple of trips I've made, I've gone up to 10,000' for a trip that only took 1:15 to complete to get above that haze 'cap' - the difference in flying (and riding) conditions is enough of a difference that I was willing to spend the fuel to get up that high.
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scottd said:
Yes, winds will vary day to day, but also morning to evening as well. This time of year you will want to fly above the top of the mixed layer. In the vicinity of KEOE this afternoon, for example, the top of the mixed layer is about 7,500 feet.

Deep-Mixed-Layer-EOE.gif
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No idea how to read that chart or where to get one for later planning.
 
Jaybird,

What field are you going into near Atlanta? That will <largely> determine how high you can stay for how long going into Atlanta's airspace.

My recommendation would be to leave early in the day (after first light, though), and stay up high for as much of the trip as possible. Once you're above the haze layer, you can see weather build-ups and other traffic much better, and besides, it is cooler up there anyway.

Does your trip require a fuel/potty stop? If the answer is yes, and you have (say) a 5 hour flight to make, but only carry 3.5 hours of fuel, I'd make my stop early in the fuel stop window so it is cooler at the stop and the the density altitude isn't as bad. Then fly a longer leg into Atlanta.
 
scottd said:
Yes, winds will vary day to day, but also morning to evening as well. This time of year you will want to fly above the top of the mixed layer. In the vicinity of KEOE this afternoon, for example, the top of the mixed layer is about 7,500 feet.
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This is very helpful! That would explain why it was bumpy at 4500 today, sounds like I should have been above 5000 or so?
 

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Kyle, I said something about 8500 in another thread and got frownie faces (LOL). I think PDK may be my choice, less busier than ATL
 
Jay you can be on flight following and check in with flight watch on 122.0 simply by telling the FF ATC person that you'll be "off freq. for a few to check weather and will report back on" No big deal. I've done that a lot on long cross countries when I wasn't sure of what I was seeing up ahead.
I flew into KLZU on the east side of Atlanta when I went there some years ago in the 152 from Alpine. It was and OK field. It's on your side at least.
 
ajstoner21 said:
ASI Weather Wise: Air Masses and Fronts

Do you understand the “why” behind the weather? Find out about the large-scale forces that drive the weather, and learn how to put that knowledge to work before your next flight (approx. 45-60 minutes).


http://flash.aopa.org/asf/wxwise_fronts/
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Thanks for the suggestion. On your advice, I logged in and saw that I started that course but didn't take the test for some reason. I redid the course and got 14/15 right. I understand why I got that one wrong.

Just hoping that I can apply everything in the air. I'm definitely beginning to see how everything comes together with experience.
 
Jeanie said:
Jay you can be on flight following and check in with flight watch on 122.0 simply by telling the FF ATC person that you'll be "off freq. for a few to check weather and will report back on" No big deal. I've done that a lot on long cross countries when I wasn't sure of what I was seeing up ahead.
I flew into KLZU on the east side of Atlanta when I went there some years ago in the 152 from Alpine. It was and OK field. It's on your side at least.
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I think I'll use FW rather than FF for this flight to relax a bit more and focus on out of the cockpit rather than the radio.

I hadn't realized the tools that I DO have available. Thanks to Scott's article, I think I can apply it also (and probably give a PIREP or 2).
 
Jay, my point was that you can have both - you can be on FF which not only provides traffic advisories but has you on screen so that if you have difficulty you have help immediately ... and you can go off freq. occasionally to check in on the weather w/ flight watch.
And it's possible that the weather will cooperate and you won't have any troubles with it.
 
I understood both Jeanie. Thank you, just now I understand that I have options.
 
Jaybird180 said:
Thanks for the suggestion. On your advice, I logged in and saw that I started that course but didn't take the test for some reason. I redid the course and got 14/15 right. I understand why I got that one wrong.

Just hoping that I can apply everything in the air. I'm definitely beginning to see how everything comes together with experience.
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I definitely see where you are coming from. I am still kind of in that boat myself. A low-time pilot trying to build experience, but not wimp out over an "evil cloud". I try to read as much as I can and do courses such as on that website to help at least get the book knowledge. I'm going to start browsing Scotts website soon, looks very good!

Another thing you can do, which is what I am doing, is to start paying attention to those prog charts, see where the fronts are, where the pressure systems are, and note what the weather is like in your local area. That might help give you a better idea of what to expect. A little more real life then "oh, a cold front has this weather associated with it... will i see that?"

I am planning a VFR trip with a friend this coming weekend, from Fort Worth, Texas, to the east coast and back. Out on Saturday, back on Sunday. I'm anxious to see what kind of weather we might run into.
 
Jaybird180 said:
Whats the latest time for morning you would recommend arrival? And earliest evening?
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The earlier the better. I don't think there is really a 'cut-off' time. Right now, if I were planning a trip, I would try to be off the ground by 10-11am if possible, though.

Evenings are anybody's guess. We got back from Alabama last night around 11pm and had to navigate around one of those pesky pop-up t-storms.

In general, though, the earlier in the morning or later in the evening you travel, the smoother the ride will be (based on 'normal' wx conditions).
 
CJones said:
The earlier the better. I don't think there is really a 'cut-off' time. Right now, if I were planning a trip, I would try to be off the ground by 10-11am if possible, though.

Evenings are anybody's guess. We got back from Alabama last night around 11pm and had to navigate around one of those pesky pop-up t-storms.

In general, though, the earlier in the morning or later in the evening you travel, the smoother the ride will be (based on 'normal' wx conditions).
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Mid-Atlantic, the worst time for storms & turbulance is about 3 PM - Midnight. By 3 PM in the summer, the atmosphere has heated up enough to be rough. Yes, you can get above the roughest part - usually - but the ride to Atlanta area from DC is along the Appalacians. You'll want to avoid the really hot weather & high winds across the mountains (yes, I've seen mountain-induced affects even here where the "mountains" are mere pimples compared to the Rockies).

I knew better than to schedule an IPC yesterday at 4 PM - but a) that was the only time CFII had open, and 2) the weather looked OK earlier in the week. Well, the storms started building around 4, we did the ground stuff & the cells were pretty much fully developed in the northwestern counties of Virginia by 5. So we called it a day with no flying.
 
Scott, what makes the bottom stay flat of the "friendly little summer" cumulus clouds that pop up in the afternoon? The ones that look like macaroon cookies....
 
scottd said:
You'll also want to keep a close eye on the tropics. We're now in hurricane season with a big subtropical ridge in place...we'll likely see the development of a couple tropical systems over the next month.
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I saw the official name list includes "Nate" this year, so I hope I'm kind to everyone. ;)
 
Maybe there won't be enough that you even become active!
 
Jaybird180 said:
Planning my longest XC to date. My family will be aboard for the ~500mi trip, so I want to make sure that all my weather training kicks in. What advice can you guys give about Fronts and Isobars (or anything else) that I may have forgotten since Groundschool?

The plane doesn't have on-board weather.:(
Click to expand...

Here's the main things:

Towering CBs, Stay upwind of them. If you're under a solid deck, avoid the dark spots, head for the light. When you see puffing and billowing, the cloud is still gaining energy, when it gets dark and tall, it is about to dissipate energy. When the tower is smooth sided, it has already dissipated it's energy. Pass a tower opposite the side the anvil is on. If you see green sky, get the hell out of there, it's about to hail. If you see green out ahead, pass well upwind of it. Stay away from danglers hanging out of clouds, that's indicating where an outflow/inflow exchange may start.
If you can stay behind the rainfall line of the front(west side) you will be better off if that's an option.
 
Jeanie said:
Scott, what makes the bottom stay flat of the "friendly little summer" cumulus clouds that pop up in the afternoon? The ones that look like macaroon cookies....
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Because the air is relatively calm and heating even with little convective turbulence so the water vapor calmly rises to where the temp/dewpoint meet, turn into clouds and just sit there like friendly little sunshades to hide beneath....:)
 
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