To all you confident Mooney drivers that are convinced a gear up won't happen to you because your plane needs the gear down to go slow enough to land, I have to ask- How come damn near half the Mooney fleet has landed on it's belly at least once in it's past if it's so hard to do?
The guys with the vintage Mooneys are particularly vulnerable (that means me too). These planes have a low gear extension speed of 120mph. Somehow we all manage to get down to 120mph without the use of the gear and most of us without any kind of speed brake. The flap extension speed is just at 105 mph. You only have to lose another 15 mph more to start getting those flaps in. Once the Mooney slows to flap speed, it flies just the same, gear up, or down. You absolutely can slow it to your usual "over the numbers" speed with no gear.
Didn't like my earlier distraction story, OK here's another.
You're on the 45 about to turn down wind, this is a place many drop the gear. Just before the turn, your baggage door pops open. On a Mooney, this is a big deal because they will often tear off and depart the plane. When it does, there is a chance it will hit the tail feathers and cause more damage... but they don't always come off.
A natural instinct for many pilots in a crisis, or brain overload, is to pull back a little bit on the yoke. It's your brain saying, give me altitude and keep me safe from the ground that will hurt me. It's not a lot, just a little, but the plane will slow and gain altitude.
Here comes abeam the numbers! There is a horn going off, and that baggage door is still banging back there. It hasn't come off yet and the wind is blowing around the cabin. Oh good! We can put some flaps in! In go the flaps.
The door is hanging in there and you think you may well escape serious expenses yet. You're about to turn final and you hear a horn. Your brain assumes it's the stall horn. So make sure all the flaps are in and you nose over a bit. Funny though, the ASI say's you're not that slow...
Anyhow on final, the numbers are coming up, the airspeed looks good, the baggage door is still there and it has finally shut up because it is now stuck in the up position. Again you hear the horn and this when you either figure it out, or you don't. Many get so fixated on just getting on the ground and fixing everything that they stop trouble shooting.
A funny thing if you ask the folks that fix the gear up damage, or if you ever look at those photos of planes on their belly- nobody ever forgets the flaps. They always come down and they always get wrecked. Oh yes you can slow a Mooney to landing speed with no gear and apparently it isn't all that hard to do as it is still commonly done.
Any airplane is vulnerable. We recently had a King Air 90 gear up here at Byron. It is a plane used for parachute jumping. What happened was, the plane was loaded with meat bombs and they were climbing out and they lost one engine. The pilot immediately configured the plane and headed back to the runway. Anyhow, in the excitement and fixation on saving the passengers, he forgot the gear... but not the flaps. So now we have a dead King Air sitting on the ramp on it's wheels, waiting for the insurance company to haul it away I guess, with one perfect prop and one bent up prop.
I'm with Richard. It's too fatalistic to just say "It's not a matter of it, but when" and "Those that have and those that will" but I also think that you have to remember even more than the GUMPS check, that you are vulnerable and fully capable of a gear up landing mistake. This way, when there is that little nagging voice in your head on that screwed up day asking, "What's that horn?" you will actually think of the gear.
If your mindset is, "I do GUMPS checks six times in the pattern, double on Sundays and besides it's really hard to land a Mooney without the gear down.", when the day comes, the confident part of your brain will override the doubting side of your brain and that horn becomes something you'll check out when you're on the ground. Oh and lights on a panel? Nobody looks at that stuff in crisis, particularly the single, itty bitty red light the vintage Mooney has.
I know I could gear up my plane. That's why I have to watch myself and question myself. Maybe it is because it was demonstrated to me how it is done, that I better understand how it happens. Kind of like how guys go to those chambers and experience hypoxia in a controlled environment, they then know what it's really like and take O2 more seriously.