Quantum Leap In Weather Forecasting

I was just reading about this. It is supposed to be able to report cloud thickness. Knowing where the tops are when there aren't any pireps would be extremely useful. I'm curious how long it will take to get this new data in an aviation useful manner
 
The comments are interesting. Seems like no one trusts the gov't. Can't imagine why.
 
TheGolfPilot said:
I was just reading about this. It is supposed to be able to report cloud thickness. Knowing where the tops are when there aren't any pireps would be extremely useful. I'm curious how long it will take to get this new data in an aviation useful manner
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Check out the initial weather products for GOES-R (I highlighted the ones I think will be most beneficial to aviation). There are even more planned for the future.


Baseline Products
 
TheGolfPilot said:
I was just reading about this. It is supposed to be able to report cloud thickness. Knowing where the tops are when there aren't any pireps would be extremely useful. I'm curious how long it will take to get this new data in an aviation useful manner
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Reddit AMA I read from the NOAA team said about six months once the satellite is in station keeping mode. They have to verify the accuracy and test all the systems before releasing the data to the public.
 
I always hoped they would be able to use the power of supercomputers to input the zillions of georef'd weather datapoints plus predictive software to say 'we had these conditions at the area of interest, and these nearby influences in the past, and it usually turned out to be these conditions here in 7 days"
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I always hoped they would be able to use the power of supercomputers to input the zillions of georef'd weather datapoints plus predictive software to say 'we had these conditions at the area of interest, and these nearby influences in the past, and it usually turned out to be these conditions here in 7 days"
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Facts and logic have no place in the weather prediction game. That would ruin the daily dice roll on the evening news by the guy who flunked law school.
I like your idea, you should start filling out grant applications and start the ball rolling. If you came half as close as you would like to be then you would easily win the Nobel prize for humanity for saving everyone from the daily weatherman.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I always hoped they would be able to use the power of supercomputers to input the zillions of georef'd weather datapoints plus predictive software to say 'we had these conditions at the area of interest, and these nearby influences in the past, and it usually turned out to be these conditions here in 7 days"
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That is what they do with the models currently...which proves that computers can provide an organized way to guess
 
For LAX I've been screwed more times than I can count. I've now figured that any cloud cover they forecast will be here 6 hours ahead of the forecast, 1000 feet below the forecast and 1 step cloudier than forecast.

... But at least they're consistent.
 
Clark1961 said:
That is what they do with the models currently...which proves that computers can provide an organized way to guess
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I feel like they can do better. I posit that the current software is either not powerful enough or they are not using the data I suggested.
I also think that at some point this will happen.
 
[QUOTE="Let'sgoflying! said:
I feel like they can do better. I posit that the current software is either not powerful enough or they are not using the data I suggested.
I also think that at some point this will happen.
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I think part of what they are doing with the new sat data is heading in the direction you desire. A model can only match observed data. The new sat will give them more observations in the upper atmosphere which may lead to more sophisticated models.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I feel like they can do better. I posit that the current software is either not powerful enough or they are not using the data I suggested.
I also think that at some point this will happen.
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At least watching some of the hurricane documentaries where they look at the forecast vs the outcome, is they are using tons of data on very powerful computers and depending on how they weight different parts of the data drives the forecast. The issue is that it is not a closed system, and the variables are interrelated, and not all variables are measurable with the granularity (precision and frequency) to cover all cases.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/software/predicting-hurricane-sandy
 
SkyDog58 said:
True but their main objective is to make their lies more believable while still maintaining a high degree of plausible deniability.
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Yes. First they lie about launching the satellite. Then they give us lies about what the "data" it allegedly collects means.
 
TheGolfPilot said:
[...] Knowing where the tops are when there aren't any pireps would be extremely useful. [...]
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You might want to look into Skew-T diagrams and the 'Experimental Graphical Forecast' on aviationweather.gov. The latter specifically states tops in the cloud forecast. Skew-T diagrams are a bit harder to read, but provide a more differentiated perspective.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I always hoped they would be able to use the power of supercomputers to input the zillions of georef'd weather datapoints plus predictive software to say 'we had these conditions at the area of interest, and these nearby influences in the past, and it usually turned out to be these conditions here in 7 days"
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They already do that. See for example, the MOS forecasts. (Not that they're always accurate...) Sometimes looking out the window gives more and better data for right now. It's always going to be that way.

Clark1961 said:
I think part of what they are doing with the new sat data is heading in the direction you desire. A model can only match observed data. The new sat will give them more observations in the upper atmosphere which may lead to more sophisticated models.
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The key there is "over time". Can't build a new model on new data for a while.
 
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