PC sales doldrums

LDJones

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Jonesy
Sales of personal computers are down and lots of theories have been bandied about. Some blame Microsoft for issues surrounding Windows 8. Others blame the shift to tablets, although most agree as core productivity devices tablets don't stand up well to PCs for lots of everyday tasks.

I need a new notebook PC, but have held off til it's an absolute necessity. I have to admit my iPad and Nexus knocked out 80%+ of my notebook usage as more convenient portable browsing tools. 90% of my POA use is on my iPad. I do most of my flight planning on my iPad with ForeFlight, whereas before I'd use my notebook or a desktop.

I still use a PC all day for productivity and could never accomplish what I do on it with just a tablet, although I could imagine that shifting in the future. Despite the bad press, I do think Windows 8 is on the right track (a universal environment for use across platforms and form factors.). Time will tell.

I'm curious others thoughts on the future of PCs vs. tablets?
 
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Tablets won't replace PC's anytime soon but I think PC's will change form somewhat. Having a real keyboard is key for doing anything productive. Touchscreens are great but so far they don't do the job as well as a mouse for most tasks.
 
Applications need to be optimized for the new touch capable devices, not just tablets. That will take a little time to work its way out to most of your applications, but it will start happening right away. Touch cable laptops are easy to find and competitively priced right now. Currently, most apps are optimized for your standard keyboard and mouse. If I were buying a laptop now (and I am for my son), I would buy a touch capable one to future proof yourself for the applications that will be coming down the pipe.
 
I use a PC 95% of the time, PC being Desktop or Laptop, mostly a docked laptop. I use my surface the other 5% of time - mostly surfing, watching tv and playing games.

Both PC sales and Mac sales dropped.. 11% and 7% respectively.. I think we're just at a point in time were people aren't in the upgrade cycles they used to and we're hitting the new market of mostly refreshes, upgrades and such.

My 3 year old AMD Phenom II PC felt brand new after buying a 150.00 SSD.. and I can plop in an 8 core CPU upgrade if I feel the need for 179.00 from new egg. I built/designed this PC to be upgradeable. Those sales #'s don't include the enthusiast or upgrade sales like this.

I bought Windows 8 when it was what, 25 bucks on the first launch days? best few bucks I spent considering I'm able to use HyperV for what I used to have to pay VMware workstation for.. it was cheaper to upgrade OS than upgrade 8 to 9 :)

Markets change, its some awesome competition out there and we're seeing the fruits of that competition.

Can't wait for Google fiber and ATT fiber to come to Austin next year!!!
 
Tablets won't replace PC's anytime soon but I think PC's will change form somewhat. Having a real keyboard is key for doing anything productive. Touchscreens are great but so far they don't do the job as well as a mouse for most tasks.

I agree. Tablets are great tools for information consuming, but not as well suited for producing work. Even the tedium of typing on a touchscreen limits the length of my posts (perhaps thankfully!), and I can honestly blame any typos or incoherency on the autocorrect!

My tablets have definitely delayed my inevitable notebook upgrade...I'm waiting for i7 notebooks to go below $500!
 
Applications need to be optimized for the new touch capable devices, not just tablets. That will take a little time to work its way out to most of your applications, but it will start happening right away. Touch cable laptops are easy to find and competitively priced right now. Currently, most apps are optimized for your standard keyboard and mouse. If I were buying a laptop now (and I am for my son), I would buy a touch capable one to future proof yourself for the applications that will be coming down the pipe.

Agree...my next notebook will have a touchscreen.
 
They talk about this a lot on TWiT (This Week in Tech) with Leo Laporte.

If you're into this sort of thing you might like to give it a listen. Another good show he does is TWiG (This Week in Google). There are many and there's an iPad app that works beautifully.

Links:

TWiT
TWiG
 
They talk about this a lot on TWiT (This Week in Tech) with Leo Laporte.

If you're into this sort of thing you might like to give it a listen. Another good show he does is TWiG (This Week in Google). There are many and there's an iPad app that works beautifully.

Links:

TWiT
TWiG

Thanks...I will check it out.
 
I'm curious others thoughts on the future of PCs vs. tablets?

They don't make a PC that does what I need to do or appeal to me.

I use a 2009 vintage Lenovo Thinkpad T60. Core2Duo 2.16ghz, 4gb RAM, Windows 7. It has a full sized ExpressCard54 slot and a 14" square screen with a resolution of 1400x1050.

I need the ExpressCard54 slot so I can have a compact flash memory reader on my computer. I like my square screen because I have more vertical pixels.

The closest thing that would fit my needs is a Lenovo Thinkpad T430S. It has a 1600x900 screen and an ExpressCard34 slot. Sure, the screen is 200 pixels wider, but 150 pixels shorter. That will make me do more vertical scrolling. It's not worth the gain in width to me. The narrow ExpressCard34 slot would make me buy a dongle style card reader that sticks out of the computer. That is unacceptable.

I only buy Thinkpad T or X series laptops because nothing else on the market is well made. I only use the Trackpoint mouse and I have the touchpad disabled in BIOS.
 
I just got a Latitude 10. It is loaded with Windows 8 Professional and has a dock with an HDMI port. Just add an HDMI monitor/TV and a Bluetooth mouse and keyboard and you have a typical pc experience
 
It is the same slump in many industries due to decrease in disposable incomes in a slowing economy, high interest rates and inflation.
 
It is the same slump in many industries due to decrease in disposable incomes in a slowing economy, high interest rates and inflation.

I can't disagree with that. The newness of tablets have given them some insulation, although maybe their sales would be that much better if the the economy was good.
 
You can't argue with that?

'Slowing economy, high interest rates and high inflation'

Ummm, wrong on all three counts. Maybe a pass on the economy as its slower than optimal...but the truth is its bigger than 2 yeas ago and much bigger than 5 years ago. The other two are opposite of facts. I just refinanced my house at 3.65%.
 
The narrow ExpressCard34 slot would make me buy a dongle style card reader that sticks out of the computer. That is unacceptable.
Afraid you'll have to suck it up and deal with a USB reader, eventually, although the T400 on which I'm typing that has a 54 mm slot. Even people who needed parallel and serial ports learned to cope and there were many more of them.
 
Let's look at the market broadly.

The largest user, based on the number of desktops owned, is the business world. (No, I don't have the facts in front of me, but that sounds right.) Business is expanding s-l-o-w-l-y as a general statement. So they have an installed base that is getting the job done, no crying need to upgrade to serve the expanding market. A lot of upgrades were done in the past in conjunction with an operating system upgrade, but Win8 is focused more on tablets and touchscreens than mainline business. And the old Opsys is working just fine, thanks. So my theory is that the economy and Win8 have combined to slow sales of desktops.

At the same time, the industry focus is clearly on mobile devices. It is like the hardware/software makers have abandoned the desktop. No wonder sales are down.

-Skip
 
You can't argue with that?

'Slowing economy, high interest rates and high inflation'

Ummm, wrong on all three counts. Maybe a pass on the economy as its slower than optimal...but the truth is its bigger than 2 yeas ago and much bigger than 5 years ago. The other two are opposite of facts. I just refinanced my house at 3.65%.

Looking at my business numbers and our grocery cart are how my family looks at inflation. We do not trust the skewed inflation or unemployment numbers produced by Washington. Interest rates are on the rise and household incomes are decreasing.
 
You can't argue with that?

'Slowing economy, high interest rates and high inflation'

Ummm, wrong on all three counts. Maybe a pass on the economy as its slower than optimal...but the truth is its bigger than 2 yeas ago and much bigger than 5 years ago. The other two are opposite of facts. I just refinanced my house at 3.65%.

Maybe one out of three...I will give you interest rates, unless someone is carrying credit card debt. To get the low interest loans takes a lot of hoop-jumping. Business loans are hard to come by. Inflation by the old standards is fairly high, which is why the govt had to find a new way to calculate it so we can afford to service our debt. We've just watched another round of layoffs from some major employers in my area. Those people won't be shopping for a new computer anytime soon.
 
Looking at my business numbers and our grocery cart are how my family looks at inflation. We do not trust the skewed inflation or unemployment numbers produced by Washington. Interest rates are on the rise and household incomes are decreasing.

I'm with you. Our family business is down 60% since 2007...and our grocery/gas bills have doubled. That's a grim combination.
 
Education sector cuts at public and private schools and sequestration are going to put a bunch of spare computers out there.
 
I'm with you. Our family business is down 60% since 2007...and our grocery/gas bills have doubled. That's a grim combination.

About 50% decrease during the same time for us. People are really having to cut back in some areas of the country. I wish all of those great numbers we hear on the news were true.
 
This particular venue is is enriched in those that use a computer's full capabilities due to IT activities. Most people use a computer for little more than internet searches and youtube videos. I would be surprised if the drop in PC sales isn't due to sales of iPads and their brethren. Why would most people need with a full-fledged computer? What exactly are they supposed to be doing?
 
This particular venue is is enriched in those that use a computer's full capabilities due to IT activities. Most people use a computer for little more than internet searches and youtube videos. I would be surprised if the drop in PC sales isn't due to sales of iPads and their brethren. Why would most people need with a full-fledged computer? What exactly are they supposed to be doing?
A portion of it is, but the majority is due to businesses pushing out their refresh cycles
 
Three words

Apple
Apple
Apple

Nuff said

Actually Apple's sales slowed down 7-8% as well..

BUT, even with the slowdown, Lenovo sales have gone up exponentially and its because Lenovo did design Windows 8 systems that weren't total crap and offered mid range x86 tablets for 600 instead of 1400 bucks
 
Education sector cuts at public and private schools and sequestration are going to put a bunch of spare computers out there.

It amazes me how many schools spend exorbitant amounts on apple products when they could save the tax payers 10s of thousands by buying big ugly pcs.. Especially if all their doing is surfing web and interacting with html content for the most part.

(my daughters old elementary school has 24" imacs in every classroom..)
 
It amazes me how many schools spend exorbitant amounts on apple products when they could save the tax payers 10s of thousands by buying big ugly pcs.. Especially if all their doing is surfing web and interacting with html content for the most part.

(my daughters old elementary school has 24" imacs in every classroom..)
Typically these purchases all go out for bids.....that's why you will see multiple makes in the same school/district
 
Typically these purchases all go out for bids.....that's why you will see multiple makes in the same school/district

Still, even with the educator discount Apple provides, they're exponentially more expensive to maintain over a term and they have 0 user replaceable parts other than possibly an HDD and more ram..

They are beautiful machines though, and I don't doubt their initial design/qualities. Just don't think its necessary.. fine for private schools if parents want to pay for such.

We home school now anyway :)
 
Still, even with the educator discount Apple provides, they're exponentially more expensive to maintain over a term and they have 0 user replaceable parts other than possibly an HDD and more ram..
Most school districts don't repair or upgrade anything as they do not have the resources. They're lucky if they have someone capable of adding a printer to the network
 
Most school districts don't repair or upgrade anything as they do not have the resources. They're lucky if they have someone capable of adding a printer to the network

Right, but they can pay for a company / contractors or employees to service the parts for a fraction it costs to have apple care on each device. Most districts do have a pretty healthy IT department, not generally assigned to each campus, but definitely available to handle resources across the district.

If anything managing devices through GPO / Active Directory or InTune is still cheaper per license/seat cost than the support/maintenance of apple hardware.. it's the very reason its been hard for OSX to encroach in corporate America outside of places that have virtualized everyone for BYOD.. (bring your own device)
 
Actually Apple's sales slowed down 7-8% as well..

BUT, even with the slowdown, Lenovo sales have gone up exponentially and its because Lenovo did design Windows 8 systems that weren't total crap and offered mid range x86 tablets for 600 instead of 1400 bucks

And they make good stuff.
 
Most school districts don't repair or upgrade anything as they do not have the resources. They're lucky if they have someone capable of adding a printer to the network

Actually, in Minnesota we have a program where state prison inmates upgrade/refresh old PCs collected from businesses and schools, then make them available to the schools at their cost. Only PCs are used in that program for obvious reasons.
 
The question is how much "work" does your average person do. Yeah PC's were the only game in town for gaming, internet surfing, etc... but they're way overkill for that. Most of the population is still using the computer as a high tech television set. Even my tech savvy friends aren't availing of themselves of the depth of applications available.
 
I think one thing that hardware manufacturers, OS publishers, and application developers tend to overlook about touch screens is that for actual work (as in a person sitting down for hours and interacting with them), they can be quite fatiguing to use.

If they're used flat, they cause neck strain from constantly looking down at them. If they're used vertically, they cause arm, shoulder, and wrist fatigue. If they're tilted a bit like some people like their keyboards to be positioned, the displays tend to be hard to read. And in any event, touch-screen keyboards provide no wrist support and have tactile feedback that's mediocre, at best.

None of these matter very much if you're using the machine to find the nearest Wally World or the latest line on the third race at Aqueduct. But for work where you're interacting with the machine for hours on end, touch screens can make your days miserable.

That's my biggest gripe with the idea of a "universal" interface a'la Windows 8. There can be no such thing because there is no such thing as universality in the ways that people use computers. It's very much like saying that driving a tractor-trailer should be just like driving a Ferrari because they're both vehicles, that playing a guitar should be just like playing a glockenspiel because they both make music, or that using a hammer should be just like using a screwdriver because they both drive fastening hardware.

Another thing that can't be ignored is that historically, the biggest rushes to upgrade have been motivated by one (or both) or two things: A crappy predecessor, and increased functionality.

Take Windows 95, for example. The improvements were earth-shattering, from the 32-bit architecture to the user experience and multimedia capabilities. People camped out overnight at stores to buy Windows 95. Windows 98 was a decent seller on the consumer end because of improved capabilities that home users, mainly, would want, but the rush was nothing like the Win95 rush.

On the business side, Windows 2000 was a good seller, but not a "hotcakes" seller. It was marketed mainly to business users as an upgrade to NT, which was already cherished by business users because of its stability. But a fellow I used to know at MS said that a very large percentage of users who upgraded to Win2K were actually home and small-business users who had been using 98 and craved stability. (I actually remember having to talk a few home users out of upgrading to Win2K after ascertaining that it wouldn't run all of their family members' applications, such as most games.)

Companies that had been using NT tended to be neither in a hurry to upgrade to Win2K, nor afraid of doing so. NT was a solid, stable system, so as long as it served business users' needs, they were happy with it. But Win2K preserved user experience, had relatively few hardware or application incompatibility problems, was rock solid stability-wise, and was an easy, painless upgrade from NT, so there was no real fear factor, either.

XP was a very hot seller on the home user and SoHo side. When XP came out, I couldn't keep up with the upgrade demand -- and that was without actually marketing XP upgrades other than with a few lines on my Web site. XP had a familiar interface, but considerable improvements in functionality and vast improvements in stability, memory management, and security. Most of my XP upgrades were consumer-initiated because they were sick of the instability issues with 98 (or even worse, WinMe).

Business users, however, held back from XP for quite some time because of considerable application incompatibility issues and the lack of any functionality improvements that they cared about. Many of the differences between Win2K and WinXP had to do with sorting out problems with VxDs and other issues related to upgrading from legacy 9x systems to a system based on an NT kernel, and business users couldn't care less about any of that. Win2K was stable, solid, fast, and ran their applications nicely. They had no need of XP.

So again, home users who had been stuck with the obsolete and increasingly unstable Win9x (or the bastardized WinMe) flocked in droves to XP because it represented a vast improvement in stability, with little or no functionality loss, and a consistent interface that was only slightly different from what they were used to. But business users, for whom there was little improvement and some headaches, held off upgrading.

And then there was Vista, which in its original release combined some stability issues and application compatibility problems (many related to UAC) with little in the way of improvements that users actually cared about. It also sported more changes to the interface than users felt like accepting, and therefore it rapidly faded away into history, with users actively avoiding it, and in fact paying extra for downgrades.

And then came Win7, which implemented what was very good about Vista -- but perfected -- and also had many under-the-hood improvements that users could feel more than understand. It was very well-accepted by home users (many of whom had tried Vista and paid to get it gone from their machines), and reasonably well-accepted by most business users (except those who were using ancient applications) because they did understand the improvements; and barring any hardware or application compatibility problems, the upgrade and learning curves were shallow.

And now there's Win8 -- an outstanding OS under the hood, but whose improvements, quite frankly, are not as apparent to users as they are to geeks who study such things. Furthermore, it comes with an interface that many people hate, and which will result in some re-learning and temporary productivity loss on the corporate side (which businesses hate). Its most noticeable improvements are that it makes your computer look like a phone -- not something that the corporate world has been loudly clamoring for -- and that it's optimized for touch screens, which people either like or don't, depending mainly upon how they use their computers. It also follows Win7, which is an excellent OS; so there's no rush to be rid of it.

So viewed in the historical context, it's not at all surprising that Win8 sales have been lackluster. It offers few improvements that most people care about (much less understand), and comes at the cost of re-learning and productivity loss for many users. And really, that's a shame, because under the hood, it's probably the best OS Microsoft has ever released. It deserves more respect.

-Rich
 
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Three words...
Economy & more choices
I don't believe the Win8 excuse... all sources for "business" computers still offer Win7 as the default OS. And Win7 machines are still available even at consumer places like Costco.
80+ Percent of us mostly "consume" content ... meaning web surfing, email, and the like. So tablets and our phones are great for that. And over the last 10 years, the desktops have gotten so excessively powerful that we're keeping them in service longer. With the impending death of Windows XP, there will be a pickup of replacement purchases in the next year... just watch. Many of our clients have indicated they'll be replacing their aging boxes soon.
 
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Rich: I agree completely with much of what you say, although having played with Win8 for awhile on both tablets, smartphones, a laptop and a desktop, I do see where they're going and believe it's the right direction. The idea is to have a single interface that lends itself to all four types of users. On the desktop, you can use mouse and keyboard once you're comfortable with UI. Same for the laptop, although with a touchscreen you can use some of the table-style interactions.

Is the UI perfect for all applications? Nope...not yet, at least. But I think it's a good start. I also think you're going to see more touchscreen monitors in use in both home and business settings...not as the primary mode of interaction, but as another option for interacting with the computer. The biggest issue there will be finding a surface that lends itself to touch without colleting fingerprints! I think that's somewhat of an issue today with tablets, although not a show-stopper.
 
And over the last 10 years, the desktops have gotten so excessively powerful that we're keeping them in service longer.

I also agree with that. We've reached a maturation level in the personal computer world that doesn't require an upgrade every 18 months in order to even function like it did back in the late '80s into the mid-'90s when OSes and application software was changing at a rapid pace. The fact that a huge number of Win XP systems are still in service is a testimony to that.
 
I used to need the most powerful computer I could get my grubby little hands on. Now I’m working on a four year old MacBook Pro. When it started getting long in the tooth I tossed in a SSD and I’m doing just fine with it. PC technology evolution has slowed to a crawl; it’s like 1990 all over again.

A lot of people can get by just fine with a tablet and a keyboard; they just surf and write the occasional short document. The compelling thing about the iOS devices is that they’re pretty hard for your average user to screw up. I think that that sells a lot of devices.
 
Agree...my next notebook will have a touchscreen.
I see upsides and downsides to that. For one thing it would mean your PC's screen will end up with lots of finger smudges and constantly reaching across the keyboard to touch the screen will probably result in some new maladies similar to the carpal tunnel issues created by keyboards.

But for certain operations (provided the application supports touchscreens properly) it might be nice. That said, I really think TS input makes much more sense on tablets than traditional PCs (desktop or laptop).
 
I used to need the most powerful computer I could get my grubby little hands on. Now I’m working on a four year old MacBook Pro. When it started getting long in the tooth I tossed in a SSD and I’m doing just fine with it. PC technology evolution has slowed to a crawl; it’s like 1990 all over again.

A lot of people can get by just fine with a tablet and a keyboard; they just surf and write the occasional short document. The compelling thing about the iOS devices is that they’re pretty hard for your average user to screw up. I think that that sells a lot of devices.
I'm still running applications that require 1-2 hours to process on a dual 3.5 GHz quad core desktop and I expect I'll be quite retired before any tablets are powerful enough for that.
 
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