Facts are facts, but interpretations can be way off. What would German production have been like without the bombing campaign? Do you know? Have you visited the alternate universe where we didn't bomb? I haven't either, but I am willing to bet that with lots of extra buildings and non-refugee citizens, the Germans might have been able to increase war output even more, thus killing that many more of our people and prolonging the war in Europe. It is only my own conclusion, but I think it based on fairly simple common sense. Thus claiming that the bombing campaign made no difference is simplistic at best, and could be wildly inaccurate.
I never said that air raids didn't make a difference. I said that the major air raids weren't effective
vis-a-vis Germany industry, which is what the goal of the massive raids on the cities was. Subtle, yet important.
It's beyond denial that the bombing of cities made something of a difference, if for no other reason than the resources allocated to move production underground (which actually involved a considerable amount of slave labor, so the redirected resources weren't as large as they would otherwise have been).
What's also undeniable, and what actually isn't denied, is that the bigger difference was made by the systematic targeting of natural resources - primarily, oil. If you bomb a tank factory, you can't make tanks for a little while. But, if you bomb oil production facilities, nothing running on oil can run - and you also can't really hide oil fields. Same's true for other natural resources - even though German production increased, the *quality* of the production didn't, and that was attributable to issues re: natural resources.
Also, given the technology of the time - close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and putting explosives close to oil. You've got to be a little more precise with factories - and precision isn't something that bombing in WWII was noted for.
When you consider the costs and returns of bombing cities, compared to the costs and returns of bombing oil fields (and the occasional BB factory - same story as with oil, machines of war don't work without ball bearings), there's a clear winner there. Over 100,000 airmen ultimately became casualties in WWII. Was the damage caused to German infrastructure through bombing cities worth the price paid, when the majority of the same effect could have been caused without bombing the cities (as in, bombing oil)?
So, you can consider the unknown possibilities - they're always both worthwhile and fun to discuss - but the consensus these days (and at the time, from guys like Speer) is that bombing oil-related facilities made the difference.
We've left aside the issue of whether pillaging works, which is what my original post was directed to. My point in raising strategic bombing was that even when pillaging has a legitimate military purpose - and there's simply no doubt that our aerial campaigns in WWII did, regardless of where directed - it doesn't accomplish much.