Navigating cluster thunderstorms -- Go IFR or VFR?

[TangoWhiskey]

This time of year, across the Southeast coast, popup thunderstorms (not squall lines) are the order of the day. There's also a lot of restricted and MOA airspace. Navigating the latter is easier IFR... but on a LONG cross country (4+ hour flight), which would you rather file--IFR or VFR--for flexibility in navigating well clear of thunderstorms enroute? Obviously, I'm not going to fly into a thunderstorm while IFR, regardless of the vector... and I imagine ATC in that region is very good at being "adaptable" to what needs to be flown due to the weather versus what you filed and were cleared for.

Making my first LONG X/C this week, starting Friday, and would like to hear your thoughts and comments on this topic.

Is what you see below, from today (Wednesday 8/5, 2022Z) navigable in your opinion, in a non-RADAR equipped single that has ADS-B weather and a Strikefinder on board?

 

[Datadriver]

No go.

 

[AustinPilot]

Personally I think IFR is the better bet. ATC is watching you constantly and in my experience they are very accommodating, even proactive, in vectoring you around weather. Plus, if you do happen to fly through some showers your visibility could vanish pretty quickly putting you in danger of a VFR-into-IMC situation.

Last time I went around weather I was above a scattered layer anyway and there were cumulus buildups in the non-precipitating areas that would have been hard to avoid under VFR. Even if you can't get high enough to go over a thunderstorm it's still nicer to be above some of the clouds.

I'd probably be willing to give that a shot if I could stay 20nm away from the red stuff.

 

[James331]

If you're not planning on going IMC, VFR all day long, easier to maneuver around build ups and change altitudes as needed VFR.

Without onboard radar Id stay VMC.

 

[steingar]

What you show is a clear no go decision. If all you have is a forecast and VFR, I'd go VFR. you can spot those things a long way off.

 

[jesse]

No problem at all for me, I'd go IFR and head west from your destination airport and stay on the southern side of all that since it appears to be moving NE. Granted there is a lot of airspace and crap to the west but ATC is typically incredibly accommodating if severe weather is limiting your route. When there is a lot of airspace like that ... IFR is what you want. You won't be stressing over all that airspace.

I'd be hesitant to try and pick my way through it on the plotted course given the option to just head west and stay in what appears based on that one picture to be a better course of action.

There are times that I will pick my way through some things like that but only if I have a good "out" and am able to remain mostly visual. I don't like the way that looks as far as having an "out". Some caution would be very much needed if you tried given that picture since there's a lot of strong cells limiting an out and I also suspect there's a strong chance some more could develop on you once you got inside it.

The last place you want to be in an airplane is in the middle of a bunch of thunderstorm cells with no good direction to head that gets you to better weather. Trapped is bad news and is a really damn bad place to be. The key is to stick to the outside, preferably on the side that the storm isn't headed in.

I deal with weather like that on cross countries on a weekly basis. You'll get a feel for it as time goes on.

As to IFR vs VFR even if I plan on remaining visual I would still very much prefer to be on a IFR clearance.

 

[mtuomi]

No problem navigating that VFR either. Stay south of that and you should be fine. Visibility outside the rain/TS seems good, keep an eye outside, spotting those red areas is easy. Have atleast 2 outs available all the time.
Also, plenty of places to land if excrement really hits the fan.

 

[mirage00]

I'm a bit confused, why would this be a no go decision?? If the op has ADSB and Strikefinder, couldn't he can stay away from the cells? I see lot's of precip but only 3 scattered cells. What am I missing?

 

[MAKG1]

I'm a bit confused, why would this be a no go decision?? If the op has ADSB and Strikefinder, couldn't he can stay away from the cells? I see lot's of precip but only 3 scattered cells. What am I missing?

He may not be in any cells, but he's barely 10 miles away from two of them. The southern one is moving toward his flight path. And he's within a few miles of strong precipitation that might grow.

Too close.

 

[FORANE]

I am with Jesse in that I would likely go, but this is not about whether one of us would go or no go. This is about you, your experience and comfort level.

It is too early to know what the actual metars will be but typically there is good visibility and cloud clearance to go around the cells. I prefer to stay VFR if possible as I find it easier to not have to ask permission to pick the best route around the weather.

You do not mention your equipment. What plane? Do you have o2 so you can climb high?

I would wait until Friday, review the current conditions, radar, satellite, metars, pireps of tops bases turb etc, and make a plan at that point. When is the best time to go? I try to time a flight to avoid the worst of the weather. What is the best route to avoid the weather? I try to fly around the back side of a front rather than try to get around the front.

 

[mirage00]

He may not be in any cells, but he's barely 10 miles away from two of them. The southern one is moving toward his flight path. And he's within a few miles of strong precipitation that might grow.

Too close.

Right, but I didn't think he had to stick with that route. As someone above mentioned, head west behind the activity.

 

[jordane93]

Looks a little close to me.

 

[Bonchie]

If it's easier to dodge VFR, then go VFR but get flight following, that way ATC still warns you about weather and will help move you around if needed.

Had this happen the other day. I was VFR. A cell popped up and they vectored me south and warned me several miles before I could get into trouble.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

No problem at all for me, I'd go IFR and head west from your destination airport and stay on the southern side of all that since it appears to be moving NE. Granted there is a lot of airspace and crap to the west but ATC is typically incredibly accommodating if severe weather is limiting your route. When there is a lot of airspace like that ... IFR is what you want. You won't be stressing over all that airspace.

I'd be hesitant to try and pick my way through it on the plotted course given the option to just head west and stay in what appears based on that one picture to be a better course of action.

There are times that I will pick my way through some things like that but only if I have a good "out" and am able to remain mostly visual. I don't like the way that looks as far as having an "out". Some caution would be very much needed if you tried given that picture since there's a lot of strong cells limiting an out and I also suspect there's a strong chance some more could develop on you once you got inside it.

The last place you want to be in an airplane is in the middle of a bunch of thunderstorm cells with no good direction to head that gets you to better weather. Trapped is bad news and is a really damn bad place to be. The key is to stick to the outside, preferably on the side that the storm isn't headed in.

I deal with weather like that on cross countries on a weekly basis. You'll get a feel for it as time goes on.

As to IFR vs VFR even if I plan on remaining visual I would still very much prefer to be on a IFR clearance.

Thanks Jesse, and everybody else.

I forgot to say that the "course" show is just the direct to from my home airport in Texas to the Florida Panhandle... not necessarily any resemblance of the actual course I'd fly. I'll be coming from the West, headed to KECP (West Florida Beaches Airport / Panama City Beach).

Your statement in bold above is exactly why I'm asking here... now, as a plane owner, I'm flying more, but don't have experience yet with navigating this kind of weather. Lots more smarter dudes and dudettes here to pick their brains about it. Consider yourselves MENTORS!

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

Can you go Fri morning Troy?
I'd bet a lot of that won't be there in the am, looks like afternoon convective stuff.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

I am with Jesse in that I would likely go, but this is not about whether one of us would go or no go. This is about you, your experience and comfort level.

It is too early to know what the actual metars will be but typically there is good visibility and cloud clearance to go around the cells. I prefer to stay VFR if possible as I find it easier to not have to ask permission to pick the best route around the weather.

You do not mention your equipment. What plane? Do you have o2 so you can climb high?

I would wait until Friday, review the current conditions, radar, satellite, metars, pireps of tops bases turb etc, and make a plan at that point. When is the best time to go? I try to time a flight to avoid the worst of the weather. What is the best route to avoid the weather? I try to fly around the back side of a front rather than try to get around the front.

Equipment: TR182, as mentioned in my signature. Yes, I have O2. Willing to take it up to 17,000 with my current experience level; technically it can do FL200.

We plan to depart just before sunrise Friday--coolest part of the day, and we want to be there before noon. There's an event we'd LIKE to make Friday evening, but if we had to delay, our "main event" for this trip is Saturday night.

Then, continuing east on Sunday to New Smyrna Beach, and on Tuesday to the Bahamas (Green Turtle Cay via Grand Abaco/Treasure Cay Airport).

 

[TangoWhiskey]

Can you go Fri morning Troy?
I'd bet a lot of that won't be there in the am, looks like afternoon convective stuff.

Hi Dave! Yes, Friday morning is the plan. I'm just watching weather today and tomorrow and doing the "If it was today, what would I do?" chair flying / ADM.

Our goal is to depart just before sunrise Friday morning (about 6:30am). It's 4-4.5 hours enroute in Birdie (direct vs. typical airway routing), and we can go non-stop.

 

[weilke]

Well, I tried VFR

 

[weilke]

A short 10min repositioning flight between cells last night. The radar picture is from about 15min before the flight, that red cell had moved on and the one on the left margin had further developed by the time I got to HEF. The flight itself was uneventful with only moderate turbulence. When I landed at HEF, a medevac chopper took off for a patient pick up. It took me maybe 1/2 hour to clean out the plane and rearrange the seats, by the time I was leaving the cell had gotten to the airport.

There are things that I will gladly do if I am alone in the plane but that may look frightening to the pax. Nexrad radar is not a good tool to pick through moving and developing storms. Sometimes radar looks a lot worse than what you can see with the mark1 eyeball flying below the bases. If you are turning and zig-zagging a lot, the WX500 gets quite crowded and can become useless.

 

[Clark1961]

Hi Dave! Yes, Friday morning is the plan. I'm just watching weather today and tomorrow and doing the "If it was today, what would I do?" chair flying / ADM.

Our goal is to depart just before sunrise Friday morning (about 6:30am). It's 4-4.5 hours enroute in Birdie (direct vs. typical airway routing), and we can go non-stop.

Not Dave but good plan going early. The thing that struck me about Gulf Coast flying was how quickly the storms can build and then dissipate. ADS-B was slow in that setting. Jesse had some good points for that environment and I see you picked them up. Always have an out because a storm can/will pop-up right in front of you. It can get a bit nerve wracking in a slow spam can. The few times I've ridden in corporate aircraft it's been kinda fun watching them fly through the stuff like it's standing still. Definitely a different view at 130 kts...

 

[Bill Watson]

What Jesse said.

I fly this kind of weather all the time with the same set of airplane capabilities that you have - it's part of life in the SE US. I'd fly it IFR with the intent of staying in VMC 90%+ of the time. I have no intention of flying into any convective buildups unless I can see where I will back pop out.

I will definitely bust some VFR cloud clearances and you will too which why I'd prefer you to be IFR as well. Depending on my reading of the cells I may well get closer than 10 miles but in other cases it my be no closer than 30.

Since you are asking the question, this may not be the flight for you. If there is limited pressure to complete the flight and you are alone or with the right passenger(s), it may be the perfect flight to gain experience and confidence. If there is pressure, real or imagined, it is perhaps a no-go sort of day.

There are certain days and situations where VFR is preferable - but not many. Canceling is also a useful option at times. One example is where the controllers are unable to let you divert as required for VMC. Happens sometimes when descending into a VFR destination at or near a Class B/C. Staying on FF while exercising your VFR options is occasionally useful.

This was actually a fun finish to a trip with the last leg flown VFR but with plenty of help from the good folks at RDU (which was closed for 45 minutes).
Flying home into 8NC8 from KILM

 

[Geico266]

VFR.

Those storms are easily navigated by the radar screen and looking out the window screen. No need to go IFR and risk being routed through a thunderstorm. Set minimums for visibility, altitude, and rain. Stay away from areas that are building, head towards areas that are dying, of the back of the storm. Stay away from the leading areas.

 

[James331]

I'm a bit confused, why would this be a no go decision?? If the op has ADSB and Strikefinder, couldn't he can stay away from the cells? I see lot's of precip but only 3 scattered cells. What am I missing?

ADSB weather/XM and a strike finder are a long ways from onboard weather radar.

Also wouldn't plan on topping CBs in a 182, plenty of stuff I can't top in a pressurised turbine.

Going IMC with weather like that in a 182 with only ADSB and a strike finder is a little sporty for my taste. I've seen area go from green to red quite fast on our radar, I've also had ATC mention a intense area that was no where to be seen, lag time is real.

 

[eman1200]

A year ago, for me, this would be a no-go. Now I have a bit more experience and would go, making sure I had outs and didn't NEED to get anywhere. Just my pair of pennies.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

ADSB weather/XM and a strike finder are a long ways from onboard weather radar.



Also wouldn't plan on topping CBs in a 182, plenty of stuff I can't top in a pressurised turbine.



Going IMC with weather like that in a 182 with only ADSB and a strike finder is a little sporty for my taste. I've seen area go from green to red quite fast on our radar, I've also had ATC mention a intense area that was no where to be seen, lag time is real.

Even if I file IFR, I want to stay VMC on this trip.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

A year ago, for me, this would be a no-go. Now I have a bit more experience and would go, making sure I had outs and didn't NEED to get anywhere. Just my pair of pennies.

The world won't end if we can't fly there GA.

I have two outs ... Fly SWA Dallas Love to the same airport I'm trying to get to, or drive. Driving would get us there in time for Saturday's main event, Friday's event too if we start the drive tomorrow (Thursday) and overnight somewhere.

We could still do the Bahamas that way, too, but would need to drive to FLL and get a plane ticket.

Vacation wouldn't be a bust that way, but would be disappointing not to use our new magic carpet as intended. Better that than dead though--or scaring my wife, who does love to fly with me.

Problem is... We won't REALLY know if we can do the first leg or not until we wake up Friday. Tomorrow's weather sucks down there, so going via airplane a day early is out.

 

[TangoWhiskey]

Looks like Friday morning's outlook calls for flaccid thunderstorms....

 

[jesse]

VFR.

Those storms are easily navigated by the radar screen and looking out the window screen. No need to go IFR and risk being routed through a thunderstorm. Set minimums for visibility, altitude, and rain. Stay away from areas that are building, head towards areas that are dying, of the back of the storm. Stay away from the leading areas.

You don't get routed into thunderstorms while IFR unless you want to do so. The controllers are generally spectacular about helping every way they can and the airplane only goes where the PIC says it goes.

 

[jordane93]

You don't get routed into thunderstorms while IFR unless you want to do so. The controllers are generally spectacular about helping every way they can and the airplane only goes where the PIC says it goes.

Yea. They really have no problems giving deviations around weather

 

[Geico266]

You don't get routed into thunderstorms while IFR unless you want to do so. The controllers are generally spectacular about helping every way they can and the airplane only goes where the PIC says it goes.

Then why do you need controllers?

IMHO best to stay VFR and pick your own route. Sure traffic is nice, but too many times they pick your altitude and route. I'd much rather pick my own with XM Weather on board.

 

[SCCutler]

You don't get routed into thunderstorms while IFR unless you want to do so. The controllers are generally spectacular about helping every way they can and the airplane only goes where the PIC says it goes.

This.

You'll be trading with Houston Center, then (IIRC) Jacksonville Center, Eglin Approach. No dud in the bunch, they'll all work with you as required.

 

[jesse]

Then why do you need controllers?

IMHO best to stay VFR and pick your own route. Sure traffic is nice, but too many times they pick your altitude and route. I'd much rather pick my own with XM Weather on board.

Perhaps you should come do a long IFR cross country with me on a day that involves a large thunderstorm system with large areas of moderate to heavy precip and you'll see the advantages of what the instrument rating buys you and how helpful the controllers are I brought Josh on such a trip last night, around 1400 miles, involved hours of IMC, exposure to icing conditions, and thunderstorms.

Landed back in LNK at 4am.

 

[tport]

I'd also take a look at the satellite imagery which Foreflight does really nicely. If it's widely covered in the orange and higher you have less of a chance of staying VMC. if it's mostly gray with some blue and orange around the storm activity, you'll be easily able to get above the low level scattered cumulus and keep an eye out for the storms and large cumulus build ups. Ask for deviations from ATC as you go. Better yet if you do have on board weather, you can ask for a re-route clearance in the air that keeps you clear of the weather you're seeing - they'd prefer that to continuous requests of such and such heading for 10 miles. I just did a trip from Chicago to New Orleans with these conditions the entire way. No problem at all going IFR, staying VMC (except for going through some benign cumulus tops at 6-8k) and asking for deviations as needed. I wouldn't recommend this with a first time passenger, but someone who has flown with you before and is comfortable with you as a pilot will be fine. Just keep an eye out for your closest out behind you as you're going along in case there is build up happening that you can't dodge. Have fun!

 

[James331]

Perhaps you should come do a long IFR cross country with me on a day that involves a large thunderstorm system with large areas of moderate to heavy precip and you'll see the advantages of what the instrument rating buys you and how helpful the controllers are I brought Josh on such a trip last night, around 1400 miles, involved hours of IMC, exposure to icing conditions, and thunderstorms.

Landed back in LNK at 4am.

What were you flying?

 

[AdamZ]

Troy great thread! Thanks for asking the questions. I'm very interested as I'm getting back in the IR saddle again after a long hiatus.

Even if I file IFR, I want to stay VMC on this trip.

While I think I agree with you and Jesse, one of the issues is that if you file there is no guaranteed that you will remain IMC, depending upon airspace you could of course ask for deviations for Wx. My biggest concern up here in southeastern PA is the imbedded stuff. You can't always see the TS from 60 miles out like you might in other areas of the country.

You don't get routed into thunderstorms while IFR unless you want to do so. The controllers are generally spectacular about helping every way they can and the airplane only goes where the PIC says it goes.

My understanding is that Approach can do this much better than Center given better radar capabilities. Is that no longer correct?

 

[FORANE]

Troy great thread! Thanks for asking the questions. I'm very interested as I'm getting back in the IR saddle again after a long hiatus.



Will I think I agree with you and Jesse one of the issues is that if you file there is no guaranteed that you will remain IMC, depending upon airspace you could of course ask for deviations for Wx. My biggest concern up here in southeastern PA is the imbedded stuff. You can't always see the TS from 60 miles out like you might in other areas of the country.



My understanding is that Approach can do this much better than Center given better radar capabilities. Is that no longer correct?

It hasn't been my experience that approach has Better radar. before I got Xm weather I flew from Florida to northeast Tennessee. Atlanta center advised that there was mod to severe precipitation ahead and to request help around it from tri cities approach as they handed me off to tri approach. I contacted tri approach and they advised that there wasn't anything in front of me worse than where I was. I flew into an embedded thunderstorm filled with black cloud occasionally lit by lightning water coming into the plane from places I have never seen before rain so loud and extreme that I couldn't hear the radio.

I have found that Florida controllers are better offering deviations for weather than the controllers north of Florida. still if I can go vfr that is what I prefer for numerous reasons. If I have to go Ifr I prefer to do as the op suggested and try to stay in vmc for the most part.

 

[jesse]

What were you flying?

PA-46

 

[Everskyward]

ATC has gotten much better at warning airplanes about thunderstorms in the past 5 or 10 years. I don't know if it's because their equipment is better or their procedures are better or both. Sometimes they will overstate the intensity but that's better than understating it if you are in an airplane which doesn't have onboard radar.

 

[jesse]

ATC has gotten much better at warning airplanes about thunderstorms in the past 5 or 10 years. I don't know if it's because their equipment is better or their procedures are better or both. Sometimes they will overstate the intensity but that's better than understating it if you are in an airplane which doesn't have onboard radar.

I honestly can't think of a time in the last few years a controller hasn't warned me of a thunderstorm on my route. I'm always aware of it as well and I also can't ever think of a time I haven't gotten precisely what I needed for deviations.

Often times in the lighter airplanes they just assign me a deviation automatically.

 

[Henning]

I've never not been able to make it through there VFR this time of year. Sometimes I'll file if there is a shallow solid layer I can be on top of and steer my way around the towers and I just call for deviations to stay in the clear, but the vast majority of the time I just go underneath so I can see the bottoms and where all the energy is. It's always good to understand the winds aloft in the upper flight levels so you know which way the anvils are blowing so you can stay up wind of the dark, roiling areas of the clouds.