National Hurricane Center (Cone of uncertainty)

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JOhnH

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The NHC used to publish a static graphic of the "Cone of uncertainty". That seems to have been replaced with a different graphic that is much more vague.
Last year I was able to search the site to find that cone graphic. So far this year, it eludes me. They still talk about it in their videos and they have examples of past cones, but I can't find the current one. Does anyone know where it can be found?
 
"Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."

Probably too many people were assuming that the forecast track was more reliable that it really was. So the new uncertainty about the track perhaps better reflects the real state of the forecast.
 
I just went digging to see what they are publishing now.
This is what I found...and yeah, I'm not really sure I know what to do with it.... This is the "Seven Day Tropical Weather Outlook"

I assume that in 7 days time there is some mysteruious probablility that this disturbance will be within that hatched area.
Based on color, maybe it's a 40% to 60% chance that it will be something (or is that a 40% to 60% chance it will be a sunny day in that same hatched area?)​

Which is pretty much what the old cone meant too ... namely a mysterious probability.... there was some probability that I never could really pin down that the path will pass somewhere within that cone.....

Honestly I'm happy to see the change... I was getting tired of seeing the constant warnings to not use the cone or the plotted path. At least now it's soemthing new and fresh!

1722354055945.png
 
JOhnH said:
The NHC used to publish a static graphic of the "Cone of uncertainty". That seems to have been replaced with a different graphic that is much more vague.
Last year I was able to search the site to find that cone graphic. So far this year, it eludes me. They still talk about it in their videos and they have examples of past cones, but I can't find the current one. Does anyone know where it can be found?
Click to expand...
There's something ironic about having switched to a graphic that is more vague than a "Cone of Uncertainty", lol.
 
SoonerAviator said:
There's something ironic about having switched to a graphic that is more vague than a "Cone of Uncertainty", lol.
Click to expand...
That's pretty much what I thought. If it happens, it happens and there is nothing I can do about it anyway, but my problem is that I live about a hundred miles south of the Mayo Clinic in Jacksonville where I had surgery two weeks ago.
I have to go back there for a post-op check in eight days. I'm not supposed to do any exercise or lift anything over 10# until after that post-op, and perhaps longer. That graph doesn't give me much to go on to make hurricane preparations.
 
Brad W said:
I just went digging to see what they are publishing now.
This is what I found...and yeah, I'm not really sure I know what to do with it.... This is the "Seven Day Tropical Weather Outlook"


View attachment 131930
Click to expand...

My understanding from a drunk donkey is that the quoted graphic shows the area where the tropical wave located at X has a 40-60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or greater within the orange hashed area. If the NWS is confident that development is high enough, they will begin to issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisory that contains all the standard text and graphics that we associate with the traditional 'cone', before it is an actual tropical cyclone.
 
I'm late to the party, but to pile on: The orange line / orange crosshatch (like in reply #3) is what you see before a "tropical cyclone" (i.e., tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) forms. It's showing you when/where a tropical cyclone might form.

Once a tropical cyclone forms, there's also a "center" of that cyclone. At that point, the NHC starts publishing a cone of uncertainty (like in reply #11) for where that cyclonic center will go in the future.
 
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