Minnesota Father and 3 sons missing in Wyoming.

gismo

gismo

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A local pilot (I don't think I know him but suspect he's based at my airport) was returning from Jackson Hole Monday afternoon in a Mooney 201 and the IFR flight lost contact with ATC about 45 minutes after takeoff.

http://tinyurl.com/fltawr-track

www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=879061

The pilot's wife posted a couple messages WRT the missing flight along with a
FAQ on her blog:

http://lukeandginger.com/node/175

Searching continues to be hampered by weather in the area along with mountainous terrain.
 
gismo said:
A local pilot (I don't think I know him but suspect he's based at my airport) was returning from Jackson Hole Monday afternoon in a Mooney 201 and the IFR flight lost contact with ATC about 45 minutes after takeoff.

http://tinyurl.com/fltawr-track

www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=879061

The pilot's wife posted a couple messages WRT the missing flight along with a
FAQ on her blog:

http://lukeandginger.com/node/175

Searching continues to be hampered by weather in the area along with mountainous terrain.
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Doesn't look very good for them. :frown3:
 
That's pretty rugged country there. We flew over the Wind River Range last week at 16,000' (which is about as low as we could go IFR) and the passengers were ooohing and ahhhing at the scenery and remarking at how remote it seemed.

The blog is pretty interesting. :eek:

I have about .5 in a Mooney 201 from a long time ago so I can't comment on their performance but do they have any anti-icing or deicing? Can they climb to 16,000' even without icing or mountain wave?

What kind of plane is it? It’s a four-seat single engine, Mooney 201, tail number N201HF.

>snip<

When did they take off? They took off from Jackson Hole Airport on Monday afternoon, October 25th, at 1:05pm Mountain Daylight Time (2:05pm Central). They had been flying for about an hour when radar contact was lost.
What has weather been like in the area? It was snowing when the plane took off, so Luke was flying in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC).

>snip<

What was the plane’s altitude? The plane was en route at 14,000 feet. The highest mountain peak in the area is 13,800 feet. ATC instructed Luke to ascend to 15,800 feet in order to maintain the required 2000 feet IMC clearance. It was during this climb that radar contact was lost.
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Everskyward said:
That's pretty rugged country there. We flew over the Wind River Range last week at 16,000' (which is about as low as we could go IFR) and the passengers were ooohing and ahhhing at the scenery and remarking at how remote it seemed.

The blog is pretty interesting. :eek:

I have about .5 in a Mooney 201 from a long time ago so I can't comment on their performance but do they have any anti-icing or deicing? Can they climb to 16,000' even without icing or mountain wave?
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Like any airplane, a 201's climb performance is greatly affected by GW and OAT. The 201s don't have a lot of excess power for climb though, mostly because they are so slippery they don't need a lot of power for cruise but I'd expect that as long as they were reasonably light, they could easily crawl up to 15-16k this time of year. Some 201s have TKS but I don't know if this one did and I have no idea if icing was present on their flight. The reports mention snow but that's not a good indicator for ice. I would say that an unprotected 201 with it's laminar flow wingss will lose all climb capability quickly if ice does form.
 
gismo said:
Like any airplane, a 201's climb performance is greatly affected by GW and OAT. The 201s don't have a lot of excess power for climb though, mostly because they are so slippery they don't need a lot of power for cruise but I'd expect that as long as they were reasonably light, they could easily crawl up to 15-16k this time of year. Some 201s have TKS but I don't know if this one did and I have no idea if icing was present on their flight. The reports mention snow but that's not a good indicator for ice. I would say that an unprotected 201 with it's laminar flow wingss will lose all climb capability quickly if ice does form.
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If one were to assume that the flightaware track log is accurate:

Time lat long heading kts mph alt rate
03:50PM 43.16 -109.65 88° East 110 127 14,300 240 Salt Lake Center
03:51PM 43.16 -109.61 96° East 118 136 14,600 -480 Salt Lake Center
03:52PM 43.16 -109.56 77° East 119 137 13,300 -120 Salt Lake Center

Then the location of the last entry shows them just east of the ridge - likely in heavy sink.
 
gismo said:
I'd expect that as long as they were reasonably light, they could easily crawl up to 15-16k this time of year.
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They had enough fuel on board to plan a 3 hour and 29 minute IFR flight to Pierre, SD so I would suspect they weren't that light, but then again I don't know much about loading in a Mooney.

gismo said:
Some 201s have TKS but I don't know if this one did and I have no idea if icing was present on their flight. The reports mention snow but that's not a good indicator for ice. I would say that an unprotected 201 with it's laminar flow wingss will lose all climb capability quickly if ice does form.
Click to expand...
But this was in the mountains where you can often get icing in clouds, sometimes pretty suddenly and unpredictably, especially down that low.

I've flown out of KJAC in both small and larger airplanes and the thought of climbing out IFR in the snow and clouds then turning east over the Wind River Range in a small single engine airplane isn't something I would want to try.

I hope they are found and they are OK but I wouldn't count on it.
 
gismo said:
A local pilot (I don't think I know him but suspect he's based at my airport)
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Based on the previous flights on FlightAware, I think he's based at Crystal.

According to FlightAware, the route was KJAC TETON3 KICNE RIW DDY ECS RAP PHP KPIR. FlightAware does *not* show airways filed in between fixes. Filed altitude was 9,000 feet which would have been fine *after* RIW.

What's not clear is whether an airway was filed before RIW. The TETON3 departure ends at IDA, so it could be that V330 was filed from IDA to RIW. If that was the case and he followed the procedure, 14,000 feet would have kept him safe on the airway.

However, it's obvious from the radar track that for some reason he turned east at KICNE, only partway through the departure procedure. KICNE is not a part of the low enroute system, and the OROCA the entire way from KICNE to RIW is 16,100 feet while the highest altitude shown in the track log is 14,600 feet and the altitude shown when the turn was made at KICNE is 13,000 feet. :hairraise:

I'll be really interested to see the ATC transcripts on this one - Either he asked for direct RIW not understanding the implications of an eastbound turn, or it was simply offered to him and he didn't know enough to refuse it. I'm guessing the former... Or he may have simply screwed up by either a) filing a flight plan that didn't include the airway routing to RIW from IDA, or b) simply misunderstanding the departure procedure. The TETON THREE does not have any allowance for turning on course at KICNE, and as 14,000 is below the OROCA, a further climb would have to be completed prior to turning on course.

Looking at the track log, he was at 13,000 at KICNE when he turned eastbound - 3,100 feet below the OROCA, and not even up to the 14,000 feet for the departure procedure.

It also looks like he went *just* south of the highest peak in the state, and just north of one that was nearly as high - A ridge he cleared by less than 500 feet (probably closer to 300), followed by a 300-foot boost and then a 1,300 foot drop in the successive minutes after the ridge crossing - And that was the last radar return.

My SWAG: Improper IFR procedure combined with air currents off the mountain, possibly exacerbated by hypoxia. :(
 
I heard Salt Lake Center ask an airplane to listen for an ELT late this afternoon. I was listening too as we passed overhead probably about 50 miles away. :frown3:
 
With their 200hp NA engines 201's are not climbing worth a hoot above 13,000', I don't care what the temperature is. Few (any?) 201's have TKS or other deice equipment.
Like most accidents it is likely a combination of errors (climb ability, following proper departure procedure, ice, etc) led to this. My prayers are for the family. May we all learn from these events.
 
Man, the SAR folks are having a hard time. I think they're trying to home in on 121.5 and it isn't working well. This has convinced me to go ahead and upgrade to a 406 ELT. The rocks out here are bumpy and they make searching difficult.

I flew over the ridge by Jackson in August and there are a lot of places a little plane could be hidden. Also, there isn't a whole lot of civilization out there (not to slight you folks from Wyoming).
 
Accidents I understand ( )

Accidents I don't understand ( X )
 
COFlyBoy said:
Man, the SAR folks are having a hard time. I think they're trying to home in on 121.5 and it isn't working well. This has convinced me to go ahead and upgrade to a 406 ELT. The rocks out here are bumpy and they make searching difficult.

I flew over the ridge by Jackson in August and there are a lot of places a little plane could be hidden. Also, there isn't a whole lot of civilization out there (not to slight you folks from Wyoming).
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I've been thinking along similar lines. But I think there's a good chance that a 406 MHz beacon might not help in this case. First, given the weak signal they're getting, I suspect that the antenna is broken and/or the plane is upside down and a 406 MHz GPS isn't going to fare much better if that's the case. Second, a 406 MHz ELT without a GPS interface would still have to rely on the 121.5 signal for RDF locating if the signal was too weak for the orbiting satellites to pick up well enough to get an accurate position fix. Third, while the Doppler derived position is far better with 406 ELTs than it was with the 121.5 ELTs, it's still not accurate enough to find an airplane buried in snow on the side of a mountain.

If the new ELT has the ability to transmit a GPS derived position then it might work better in accidents like this one, but only if the searchers had a way to read the transmitted position locally.
 
I thought that the local responders were going to be equipped with 406MHz rx too. Aircraft could generate a position fix in a similar manner to satellites.

The GPS interface certainly makes the job a whole lot easier.
 
COFlyBoy said:
How's the weather looking up there today Ben?
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Not bad for visibility and the broken layer is about 13,000 so that puts them in the range of a no go for me, also winds at ridge tops are 30+. I ain't gonna be the next plane for rescue people to be looking for. Hope they have better weather by Gannett Peak.
http://www.alltravelcams.com/viewer_gwc.php?camcategory=GRAND%20TETON%20NATIONAL%20PARK&camname=East%20Gros%20Ventre%20Butte&campic=http://cams.jacksonholewebcams.com/grandteton/grandteton.jpg&sponsor=ALLJacksonHole.com&sponsorurl=http://www.AllJacksonHole.com&camwidth=1024&camheight=800
 
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COFlyBoy said:
I thought that the local responders were going to be equipped with 406MHz rx too. Aircraft could generate a position fix in a similar manner to satellites.

The GPS interface certainly makes the job a whole lot easier.
Click to expand...
The 406 MHz transmission is a periodic burst which isn't very good for DF. I assume that's the reason all 406 MHz beacons transmit a continuous 121.5 MHz signal as well.
 
gismo said:
The 406 MHz transmission is a periodic burst which isn't very good for DF. I assume that's the reason all 406 MHz beacons transmit a continuous 121.5 MHz signal as well.
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Right, they can't home on the 406 burst, but they could decode the gps position if it had it.

$1360 for a 406 ELT with integral GPS from AircraftSpruce. At that price I'm gonna do it before our next family cross country.

http://www.aircraftspruce.com/catalog/avpages/aircraftspruceelt.php
 
gismo said:
The 406 MHz transmission is a periodic burst which isn't very good for DF. I assume that's the reason all 406 MHz beacons transmit a continuous 121.5 MHz signal as well.
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That is what I used to think but got schooled otherwise. The newest generation digital DF from Becker will hone on the little 406mHz bursts just fine. Thank the cold war for that. The portable ground equipment used by the posse on foot for the most part doesn't yet have that capability.
 
The newest generation digital DF from Becker will hone on the little 406mHz bursts just fine. Thank the cold war for that. The portable ground equipment used by the posse on foot for the most part doesn't yet have that capability.
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Yes, the newer CAP airplanes all have the Beckers. A very nice box!

RE GPS in the ELT, the few reports I have seen on downed airplanes with 406mhz. ELTs say that the doppler coordinates are good enough that the search airplane basically is put on top of the target.

But from the fragmentary reports it is not clear to me that anyone has actually heard an ELT signal. My guess is that they have not.
 
2 weeks ago I came really close to buying an airplane in northern washington State... After looking at the IFR routes across the Northern tier to get to Michigan and seeing the altitudes I would need and the rocks I would be flying in a single engine and considering the weather, I called back and canceled the deal... This flat land boy knows when he is out of his league...

denny-o
 
Dr. O said:
2 weeks ago I came really close to buying an airplane in northern washington State... After looking at the IFR routes across the Northern tier to get to Michigan and seeing the altitudes I would need and the rocks I would be flying in a single engine and considering the weather, I called back and canceled the deal... This flat land boy knows when he is out of his league...

denny-o
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Some of us who live in the middle of the rock have no choice if we want to fly. There are actually valley routes to get around most big rocks. I don't understand why anyone would attempt that route at that altitude. Even at 2K higher, I would rather climb to the north a bit, and then turn East towards U25 and then SouthEast towards the intended route. That would result in more mellow terrain and not much above 10K rather than 13-14K jagged terrain.
 
airdale said:
RE GPS in the ELT, the few reports I have seen on downed airplanes with 406mhz. ELTs say that the doppler coordinates are good enough that the search airplane basically is put on top of the target.
Click to expand...

There is an animation somewhere that shows the 'circle' that has to be searched for 121.5, 406 and 406+GPS. Each of them was orders of magnitude smaller than the prior. I am glad that manufacturers are finally coming up with more affordable integrated 406+GPS units. Apparently interconnecting a WAAS GPS is a major wiring production and pricey.
 
weilke said:
There is an animation somewhere that shows the 'circle' that has to be searched for 121.5, 406 and 406+GPS. Each of them was orders of magnitude smaller than the prior. I am glad that manufacturers are finally coming up with more affordable integrated 406+GPS units. Apparently interconnecting a WAAS GPS is a major wiring production and pricey.
Click to expand...

I've been waiting for this one:

http://www.ackavionics.com/406 Page.html

I also carry a 406 MHz PLB but that wouldn't get activated if I flew into the side of a mountain. I guess I'd better avoid that.
 
gismo said:
I also carry a 406 MHz PLB but that wouldn't get activated if I flew into the side of a mountain. I guess I'd better avoid that.
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What was that quip again: A PLB exists to guide rescuers, an ELT to guide a recovery team.
 
The 406 PLBs have proven to be useful in wilderness areas. I remember reading a few stories when researching my Gulf of Mexico trips of people who were happy to have their 406 PLBs that successfully brought rescue crews right to them. Seems like a good idea.

But... best thing to do is avoid it being necessary to use one in the first place.
 
Leslie and I both have 406 PLBs. That way, if either of us survives in reasonable shape, we can call for assistance. If neither of us does, then it really doesn't matter, does it?
 
http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/article_abe1a9fe-e693-11df-ba86-001cc4c03286.html

The wreckage of a single-engine fixed-wing aircraft was found late Monday east of the Continental Divide near Gannett Peak in western Wyoming, Fremont County Sheriff Skip Hornecker said this morning.
Searchers on the scene reported there were no survivors.
The crash site was found approximately one mile east of the aircraft's last known location near Indian Pass at an elevation of about 11,100 feet. Four members of a Minnesota family were on board.
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How sad,... I can't imagine what the wife is feeling, losing her family like that. Prayers out to her and the relation.
 
Skidoo, that's local knowledge - which I lack... Maybe, had I known of those safer routes I might have gone ahead... The plane has been sold (he got a real bargain) so it's too late to worry about it...

cheers...

denny-o
 
gismo said:
His wife's strong expression of gratitude towards the searchers/rescuers while dealing with unimaginable grief speaks loudly of a class act on her part.
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+100 :thumbsup: I've been impressed by the clarity of her posts on their blog, considering what she must be going through.
 
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