Market vs. sentimental value

A1Topgun said:
Also read what is NOT in the listing. Does it list NDH (No Damage History)? If not assume there is damage history. Most damage is a show stopper, some is a non issue. As an example, a gear up landing in a Mooney is usually not an issue and you get a new / rebuilt engine and a new prop. And make sure the logs are complete and up to date, about half the price is the plane's service history.

As someone above mentioned, go to the local airport and make some friends. Find a good instructor, FAA medical examiner, and mechanic. Take an "Intro Ride" and a few lessons in a rented aircraft such as a Piper Warrior and a Cessna 172. See which one you like. It will narrow your search.
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I don't think decades old damage that was properly repaired is significant, and it's not an isolated opinion.
 
So, how do you think a recession will affect prices and demand?
 
3393RP said:
I don't think decades old damage that was properly repaired is significant, and it's not an isolated opinion.
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I agree. Followed the listing for over six months and the price was dropping. Called the broker and ask what the damage was. At 180 Hrs left wing replaced. He sent me copies of all the logs. 2000 hrs & 20 some years - no problems. No accident / incident in any FAA / NTSB database searching SN and N#.
 
Started preliminary talks about buying 50% interest in a Cessna 310R. When we talked price, he told me he wants $100,000 to buy in, with an emphasis on how much he has spent over the past couple years. I can't see the plane being worth more then 135k. He has owned the plane since the early 2000s so I suspect another factor is that he doesn't know the the twin market has tanked since then.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I've heard of sellers and brokers who will price the airplane at 30% more than they want for it, just to see if some idiot will take the bait...

And then there's the buyers who make an offer of 20% less than asking and tell everyone what a great deal they got. :no:

I created a tool that I use for buying airplanes. It takes the Vref values for the various model years and options so that I can get a Vref price. I calculate the difference between Vref and asking as one metric... And then I build on that with not only the Vref values of various add-ons that are desired, but what it would cost to add them if not there, and come up with a value for what the plane is worth *to me*. Then I calculate the difference between that and asking price. Lowest number wins. Look at the logs, fly it, put in an offer, get a pre-buy, boom shakalaka.

I'm surprised at the number of horror stories I hear from others - I really haven't had any trouble with bad sellers. I've bought a couple through brokers and a couple direct. :dunno:
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That’s the way I do it as well.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of owners that have made upgrades that don’t realize their upgrades are no longer worth what they paid for them.

Avionics - 50% unless brand new within 1 year.
Paint - 60% unless just done.
Interior - 60% unless brand new.
Engine time - $10-$20 per hour x the TBO, depending on engine.

Beef does a pretty good job of taking paint, interior, and engine time into account. Avionics you need to do some work on, but it will capture some of the modern equipment.

Right now, any plane with a GPS less than a 430W unit is not worth any value. Add in at least $7000 for a used 430W plus indicator, and $3000 for ADSB Out. A lot of sellers are trying to get out without paying for ADSB, or overhauling their engines. A lot of top dollar asking prices for planes without a GPS, ADSB, and 3/4 TBO engine times.
 
And they are selling....o_O
 
Rcmutz said:
Right now, any plane with a GPS less than a 430W unit is not worth any value. Add in at least $7000 for a used 430W plus indicator, and $3000 for ADSB Out. A lot of sellers are trying to get out without paying for ADSB, or overhauling their engines. A lot of top dollar asking prices for planes without a GPS, ADSB, and 3/4 TBO engine times.
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Yeah, I'm looking at 177s and 182s and that's what I'm seeing. Anything 'affordable' to me has a > mid-time engine and crap avionics. It's surprising how many airplanes have original radios and the few that have upgraded their panel have a runout motor.

I'm VFR so don't expect to see glass in my panel, but if I end up keeping her I'll put in a G5 and a simple AP in a year or so and call it good.
 
I just bought one and sold on in the past few months. I was pointed to the one I bought before it even was listed for sale anywhere. I sold my old one and had people contacting me within hours of listing it. The first plane I purchased didn't go that way, it was a couple months of looking and talking to people. It all just depends I guess... something else that is a factor right now is it's spring and everyone is looking forward to the summer and buying. In the fall, the asking prices tend to come down so I expect it's a better time to buy.
 
I am in the market and have been doing a ton of looking. Admittedly I am on the low end price wise but looking for a simple airplane J5 would be my ideal plane but there are a few others on the short list.

Priced right they sell fast. I was looking at a Champ the other day nice looking plane low engine time price was right. I texted the same day it was posted and it was sold.

The other side of that is I am following several planes that look decent but are 20% over what I think they are worth. Of course what I think they are worth isn't really relative. These planes have been on the market for months some have been listed multiple times.

Then there is the guy selling a tri-pacer (or similar) with a run out engine and old fabric that thinks it is worth 25K. Even if he sold it for 15k and you had to swap the engine you are still upside down in it and have a plane with old fabric. Or the guy selling a J3 for 45K or a Champ for 30k.

Of course what do I know I haven't found a plane yet.
 
DFH65 said:
The other side of that is I am following several planes that look decent but are 20% over what I think they are worth. Of course what I think they are worth isn't really relative. These planes have been on the market for months some have been listed multiple times.
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Never hurts to make an offer. Like I said, some people (brokers too) will take what they want and add 30% and list it for that.
 
@DFH65 where was that Champ and what were they asking.

There’s one been on the market in Lacon IL for $35k I think. Nice shape but seems waaaay high.

Just curious what others are seeing.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
It’s weird, seems like planes are going up and boats are going down?

Tom
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There are significant numbers of new boats sold every year, so the older ones depreciate. Outside of Cirrus, there are very few new airplanes built each year, and Cirrus production is about half of what it was in the 2000s. Most of the 172s and Archers that get built go directly to flight school, and likely will never show up on the used market.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
It’s weird, seems like planes are going up and boats are going down?
Tom
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Most likely because airlines are hiring pilots, and GA planes are where they get a lot of training and flight hours.
I'd speculate there has been somewhat of an increase of hiring for commercial Helmsmen, etc., though not as much as the airlines...but do recreational boats count for experience?
If not, that would be part of the equation, along with @FormerHangie's post.
Again, just speculating.
 
FormerHangie said:
Most of the 172s and Archers that get built go directly to flight school, and likely will never show up on the used market.
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Sure they will. Embry-Riddle sells theirs at 6000 hours TTAF, IIRC. In their operation, that doesn't take long. Go do a search for all the 172s with N###ER tail numbers and see how many Riddle still owns...
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Sure they will. Embry-Riddle sells theirs at 6000 hours TTAF, IIRC. In their operation, that doesn't take long. Go do a search for all the 172s with N###ER tail numbers and see how many Riddle still owns...
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Post reported for bypassing the swear filter.
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@DFH65 where was that Champ and what were they asking.

There’s one been on the market in Lacon IL for $35k I think. Nice shape but seems waaaay high.

Just curious what others are seeing.
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Big broker in Lacon. Plane may not even be there. Probably overpriced due to broker fees and the usual reasons.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
It’s weird, seems like planes are going up and boats are going down?


Tom
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I think it depends on the boat and the airplane, older, big offshore diesel sportfishing boats are a tough sell! But, center consoles are still hot, so are bay boats.
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@DFH65 where was that Champ and what were they asking.

There’s one been on the market in Lacon IL for $35k I think. Nice shape but seems waaaay high.

Just curious what others are seeing.
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https://www.barnstormers.com/classified_1460059_1946+Aeronca+Champ+7BCM.html

That is the one that sold same day. Nice looking champ. 85HP engine. Reasonably priced. This is only my opinion but there are very few Champs that are worth more than 25K. There are very few Chiefs worth more than 18-20K. There are a handful of J5s worth more than 30K. Again only my opinion. If they top those numbers they need to be super nice IMO.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I've heard of sellers and brokers who will price the airplane at 30% more than they want for it, just to see if some idiot will take the bait...

And then there's the buyers who make an offer of 20% less than asking and tell everyone what a great deal they got. :no:

I created a tool that I use for buying airplanes. It takes the Vref values for the various model years and options so that I can get a Vref price. I calculate the difference between Vref and asking as one metric... And then I build on that with not only the Vref values of various add-ons that are desired, but what it would cost to add them if not there, and come up with a value for what the plane is worth *to me*. Then I calculate the difference between that and asking price. Lowest number wins. Look at the logs, fly it, put in an offer, get a pre-buy, boom shakalaka.

I'm surprised at the number of horror stories I hear from others - I really haven't had any trouble with bad sellers. I've bought a couple through brokers and a couple direct. :dunno:
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I took the same approach when I bought my plane. Used AOPA VREF to establish a baseline. He asking 3.5K higher. We discussed it and the owner was putting a premium on impeccable maintenance. He showed me invoices for 35K in repairs and upgrades in the last 4 years before I bought it in 2018. I reviewed the logs and invoices and paid the premium. VREF does not take into account for excellent maintenance.
 
jaxcessnadriver said:
I A lot of stuff I see (been looking at Grummans) are mid time engines and old radios and need ADSB .."
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Put my Tiger on barnstormers a year and a half ago. Buyer emailed me 30 min after post went up. Had 7 others forward a contract in case he fell through (he almost did on his loan). I had ALL logs scanned which was HUGE as the previous owner put a ton Into avionics. I priced it at about what I’d pay for it. Based on the other Tigers being POS, I could’ve easily squeezed a little more out of it
 
kaiser said:
I’m getting into flying because people got tired of me taking them on 300nm (read: 3 days on a sailboat) trips. Soon I can do this in a few hours :D
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I have both. Like both. Live on the water near a airport. Looking to get something to fish from. Waiting for the next recession and lower prices. But yes sailing does chew up some time.
 
Morgan3820 said:
I have both. Like both. Live on the water near a airport. Looking to get something to fish from. Waiting for the next recession and lower prices. But yes sailing does chew up some time.
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I’ve sailed to, back, and around the Bahamas, using less than $100 of fuel. But the big advantage if a sailboat, you can live on it, you can’t live on a small plane.


Tom
 
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