Mandatory Quarintine?

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Exactly, so which expert is expert? Will the real expert please stand up?
What part of my reply did you not understand?
A true expert has humility, willing to change as new findings arise. They are generally correct, and can explain why their advice holds. Like mentioned above, since experts are occasionally wrong, ignoring experts is a good bet?
 
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/au...t-month-drivers-take-advantage-empty-n1234651

No actually, they are up because while there are many fewer people on the roads, people seem to feel they can/should be pushing their car as fast as it can go.
The last few days, I've seen a pretty large uptick in traffic around DC, but there are still a bunch of a-hole drivers that are driving as if they are the only ones on the road. Including the two that passed me (one on my left, one on my right) this AM doing what I estimate be over 100 MPH in what appeared to be a road race on I-395 during rush hour.
 
Reading this thread and the part about experts makes me wonder whether any of the experts have found Amelia Earhart yet?
 
What part of my reply did you not understand?
A true expert has humility, willing to change as new findings arise. They are generally correct, and can explain why their advice holds. Like mentioned above, since experts are occasionally wrong, ignoring experts is a good bet?
Fine, you listen to your experts and I’ll listen to mine.
 
Except the ones I listen to actually work in their fields ;)

Another big thing to look for in assessing your experts is consensus.

When you have a bunch of experts with different affiliations agreeing with each other, and there are peer-reviewed publications to back up what they say, you can feel pretty good about their advice.

When you have an expert with little more than a website offering breathless videos on the topic, be skeptical. Especially if the expert spends a lot of time explaining why 'they' are trying to suppress the truth that only he or she knows. And extra-especially if the expert happens to be selling some miracle solution on said website.
 
This situation has many facets, and an expert in any one of them is certainly not an expert in all the others. Experts are usually quite myopic, giving advice and proposing solutions with a very narrow perspective.

Medical experts are not also economists, so their expert advise about the way to minimize the spread of the disease may be very bad advice regarding long term effects on the national economy, including how crippling the economy may lead to poorer health and even deaths in the long run. Economic experts also usually specialize; a solution that works for large firms may bankrupt small business. What works for manufacturing may cripple agriculture. What works in one state may not in another, depending on the state's economy. Neither economists nor physicians are experts in foreign relations, and their proposed solutions don't consider possible damage in that sector.

And so on.

It's the job of the executive to sort through all these many expert opinions, and also consider that even within one field the experts may not agree, and try to balance them all to achieve an acceptable solution. That's quite a daunting task.

So the cry of "Listen to the experts!" reflects a rather simplistic view.
 
This situation has many facets, and an expert in any one of them is certainly not an expert in all the others. Experts are usually quite myopic, giving advice and proposing solutions with a very narrow perspective.

Medical experts are not also economists, so their expert advise about the way to minimize the spread of the disease may be very bad advice regarding long term effects on the national economy, including how crippling the economy may lead to poorer health and even deaths in the long run. Economic experts also usually specialize; a solution that works for large firms may bankrupt small business. What works for manufacturing may cripple agriculture. What works in one state may not in another, depending on the state's economy. Neither economists nor physicians are experts in foreign relations, and their proposed solutions don't consider possible damage in that sector.

And so on.

It's the job of the executive to sort through all these many expert opinions, and also consider that even within one field the experts may not agree, and try to balance them all to achieve an acceptable solution. That's quite a daunting task.

So the cry of "Listen to the experts!" reflects a rather simplistic view.
Thanks. I was too lazy to explain it in that detail.
 
Except the ones I listen to actually work in their fields ;)
Good for you. I really don’t care That much about the Wuhan Flu. If I get it, I get it. I don’t have the luxury of obsessing about it. I have a lot of other stuff to worry about. I got hurricanes in the Atlantic, a job I don’t like But am stuck with, my best friend just died, of old age.
Frankly, I am tired of the crisis du jour foisted on us by the media and politicians.
I am tired of The fearful masses telling me what to do. A friend’s wife has barely left the house since March out if fear. He goes to work everyday. I would be telling her, get up and out or I am leaving.
And no, I don’t care all that much about the fearful masses.
Rant over. Have nice day
 
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This situation has many facets, and an expert in any one of them is certainly not an expert in all the others. Experts are usually quite myopic, giving advice and proposing solutions with a very narrow perspective.

Medical experts are not also economists, so their expert advise about the way to minimize the spread of the disease may be very bad advice regarding long term effects on the national economy, including how crippling the economy may lead to poorer health and even deaths in the long run. Economic experts also usually specialize; a solution that works for large firms may bankrupt small business. What works for manufacturing may cripple agriculture. What works in one state may not in another, depending on the state's economy. Neither economists nor physicians are experts in foreign relations, and their proposed solutions don't consider possible damage in that sector.

And so on.

It's the job of the executive to sort through all these many expert opinions, and also consider that even within one field the experts may not agree, and try to balance them all to achieve an acceptable solution. That's quite a daunting task.

So the cry of "Listen to the experts!" reflects a rather simplistic view.
Precisely...very well stated.

A personal experience that is somewhat analogous...

About 18 years ago, I cut off part of the tip of my right thumb including part of the bone doing something incredibly stupid with a router. The emergency room commended me on my fast home dressing, redressed the site, and sent me to a hand specialist. The x-ray showed a curved router-bit-shaped crescent removed from the bone and the bone was visible at the end of my thumb. This hand specialist assured me that the only safe thing to do to prevent infection and really bad things happening was to amputate my thumb at the first knuckle. He may have been correct. I said absolutely not and left. He thought I was crazy to take that chance.

Found another, also well-respected hand surgeon. He advised a course of antibiotics, irrigation of the site once or twice daily (don't truly remember the frequency..this was a while ago) frequent changes of the dressing with topical antibiotic, and monitoring the healing. He thought there was excellent chance that a good bit would regenerate,and that with desensitization therapy (which was brutal..I remember THAT) I would be fine. He was right, and I am.

Now..the "back story." I am a professional pianist and violinist. Without that first joint of my right thumb, my career ("economy") would have ended. The first doctor ("expert") looked only at one aspect of the problem, and suggested what he felt was the safest course of action. He wasn't wrong..and yet, taking the big picture of my life into consideration, he was. The second doctor worked primarily on symphonic musicians and understood the big picture. They were both experts...with VERY different, life-altering recommendations.

It is not up to experts to tell us what to do. It is up to US to consult, research, parse, and make responsible informed decisions based upon various experts' specific findings.
 
It is not up to experts to tell us what to do. It is up to US to consult, research, parse, and make responsible informed decisions based upon various experts' specific findings.

Excellent post! BTW I play Christian piano (my right hand don't know what my left hand is doing) and jail house guitar (behind a few bars and looking for a key).

Your point reminds me of what I've heard my wife tell our children many times, "where you are in life is a direct result of all of the decisions you have made to this point."

Many people want someone else to make thier decisions for them then they will have someone to blame (or sue) when/if things go wrong. At the end of the day (or the life) the judgment will not be about what others decided for us but rather the path that we took as a result of the decisions we have made. I understand that many things are out of our control but we must not only learn how to act but also to react.
 
Excellent post! BTW I play Christian piano (my right hand don't know what my left hand is doing) and jail house guitar (behind a few bars and looking for a key).

Your point reminds me of what I've heard my wife tell our children many times, "where you are in life is a direct result of all of the decisions you have made to this point."

Many people want someone else to make thier decisions for them then they will have someone to blame (or sue) when/if things go wrong. At the end of the day (or the life) the judgment will not be about what others decided for us but rather the path that we took as a result of the decisions we have made. I understand that many things are out of our control but we must not only learn how to act but also to react.
Neil Pert said it best

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
 
We've been asked at our rural GA airport to ask transient pilots to fill out the traveler health form. Individuals are expected to self-enforce. However, there is a risk of up to a $10,000 fine if found in violation. The most obvious way this would happen is if you are found responsible for initiating a local outbreak. Right now, the positive test rate in the Syracuse areas is in the 0.5-1.0% range, so the chances of contracting COVID from someone here is very low if reasonable precautions are taken. The concern is that a large fraction of local outbreaks in the state in the last couple of months have been traced to travelers from states with high rates of infection. A recent one in our county was the entire family of a pilot who flies out of our airport. A visitor from North Carolina infected an entire family of 12 in one go. The pilot was doing an owner-assisted annual at the airport, but fortunately did not spread it to the mechanic and flight instructor (who I flew with during this period.)

And BTW, a negative COVID test will not get you off the hook for the 14-day quarantine requirement if you come from a qualifying state. You can read all about the NY travel policy here.
 
Define under control. The testing data is basically meaningless IMHO. Go straight to the hospital admission numbers and the panic seems unrealistic if not flat out inflated. (Gross numbers 30k positive tests in NE and 11 people hospitalized at Bryan, two on vents at Bryan)

I've spent 10 days in the ICU before, had amputation on every limb. I have no spleen. I have been to work since this started, exposed to hundreds per day. Are my genetics going to do well or not? I have no idea. I refuse to cower in the corner. If that's what people chose to do, I will not look down on them, that's their choice... but clearly grocery store clerks have bigger balls...

In about 6 months those who aren't already working are going to face termination or going back to work. I've faced that already after discharge from the ICU. The circumstances will be different but the choice will be the same. Some will still be paralyzed with fear when they make it.


Again, Bryan Health (largest provider in Lincoln 200 ICU bed capacity and 161 ventilators)

August 25, 11 total inpatients with COVID, 1 on a vent


"hypertesting is fueling hysteria" its a whopping 8 minutes and worth watching IMHO.
 
Again, Bryan Health (largest provider in Lincoln 200 ICU bed capacity and 161 ventilators)

August 25, 11 total inpatients with COVID, 1 on a vent


"hypertesting is fueling hysteria" its a whopping 8 minutes and worth watching IMHO.
I'd still look at the area reports. There is CHI and St. Elizabeth's here, as well as a number of smaller healthcare providers. Just because CHI is the "largest" doesn't mean the majority of cases are being sent there.

Also, the Lincoln area is fairly small and rural.
 
I'd still look at the area reports. There is CHI and St. Elizabeth's here, as well as a number of smaller healthcare providers. Just because CHI is the "largest" doesn't mean the majority of cases are being sent there.

Also, the Lincoln area is fairly small and rural.


So this reports a total of 66 covid patients in all of the CHI system. 22 ICU and 4 are on ventillators

CHI has over 2000 beds and over 160 traditional ventilators over 400 total vents. I have not located ICU capacity.

https://theindependent.com/news/loc...cle_6ea3e084-6ef6-11ea-ab75-bf158797bcba.html
 
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So this reports a total of 66 covid patients in all of the CHI system. 22 ICU and 4 are on ventillators

CHI has over 2000 beds and over 160 traditional ventilators over 400 total vents. I have not located ICU capacity.

https://theindependent.com/news/loc...cle_6ea3e084-6ef6-11ea-ab75-bf158797bcba.html
So? What about the rest of them? St. E's? Bryan? The other smaller ones? Heck, CVS has drive-through COVID testing.

This gives much more information:
https://lincolnne.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/79eb4e7acdce4c9aa368c39604abe0cd
 
Don't want to pee in anyone's Captain Crunch, but didn't the CDC just turn OFF the 14 day restriction this week to travelers including international?

I don't think that will prevent States from being more conservative (no pun) wrt dealing covid-19.

In fact, there will likely be some knee-jerk reactions to keep existing quarantine requirements in place, or increases the requirements.
 
Don't want to pee in anyone's Captain Crunch, but didn't the CDC just turn OFF the 14 day restriction this week to travelers including international?
It doesn't matter if they did. Anyplace we would want to visit still has a 14 day quarantine for people from the USA.
If they did turn off the 14 day restriction, that only means the rest of the world is in better shape than we are.
 
Don't want to pee in anyone's Captain Crunch, but didn't the CDC just turn OFF the 14 day restriction this week to travelers including international?
So, it’s all over we can get back to masks just for Halloween ? Well, I am glad that we are done with all of this Covid stuff. It was a distraction to the riots.
 
It doesn't matter if they did. Anyplace we would want to visit still has a 14 day quarantine for people from the USA.
If they did turn off the 14 day restriction, that only means the rest of the world is in better shape than we are.

That's the only possibility?
 
I'm wondering if anyone has information about how strictly states with mandatory quarantine are enforcing these regulations.
Loaded question.. I think a big part of this is on the honor code. If you exceed the speed limit how likely are you to get caught?

There's also a reason that quarantine rules are in effect.. politics and all that aside there's a social contract and overall moral responsibility we have to each other. Even if we don't want the government enforcing that.. would you really want to potentially be putting someone else at risk? You can probably drive you friend home just fine when you are buzzed and they're drunk.. but maybe your reaction time is just a bit slower and you won't see the dog that jumps out or will not see the other car out of the corner of your eyes that runs the red at the intersection.

To that end.. quarantine rules and all that aside, these are choices that only you can make.

Sorry I wasn't much help.
 
So? What about the rest of them? St. E's? Bryan? The other smaller ones? Heck, CVS has drive-through COVID testing.

This gives much more information:
https://lincolnne.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/79eb4e7acdce4c9aa368c39604abe0cd
What does positive cases reported on the news have to do with actual sick people that need/needed inpatient medical care?

Gross number of positive cases vs actual hospitalizations?

The number of confirmed cases continues to pile up and number of hospitalizations is flat.
 
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What does positive cases reported on the news have to do with actual sick people that need/needed inpatient medical care?

Gross number of positive cases vs actual hospitalizations?

The number of confirmed cases continues to pile up and number of hospitalizations is flat.
I didn't link a news article. I merely stated your source of data was incomplete, and suggested a better one, which has the information you mention.
That's the only possibility?
Nope, but at least some of the other possibilities are more political in nature.
 
Having been exposed to Covid from a family that came from Texas to New York and didn't quarantine, I personally would appreciate it if people would do as they're asked. I got lucky. We came into contact with these people outdoors, and didn't catch it. The family they were visiting weren't so lucky. All 5 of them caught it from the TX branch of the family. The father is an active-duty Navy SEAL. He wound up in the ICU with a 103-degree fever. He told me afterwards that during that time, he was counting his life in ten-minute increments. I.e. "I can make it another ten minutes." And then ten minutes later: "I can make it another ten minutes."

I don't think there's any real enforcement, although I'm sure there would be consequences if you got caught, particularly if you brought the disease with you and spread it. But it would be nice if people would have consideration for others and respected what the governor has asked people to do.
 
Having been exposed to Covid from a family that came from Texas to New York and didn't quarantine, I personally would appreciate it if people would do as they're asked. I got lucky. We came into contact with these people outdoors, and didn't catch it. The family they were visiting weren't so lucky. All 5 of them caught it from the TX branch of the family. The father is an active-duty Navy SEAL. He wound up in the ICU with a 103-degree fever. He told me afterwards that during that time, he was counting his life in ten-minute increments. I.e. "I can make it another ten minutes." And then ten minutes later: "I can make it another ten minutes."

I don't think there's any real enforcement, although I'm sure there would be consequences if you got caught, particularly if you brought the disease with you and spread it. But it would be nice if people would have consideration for others and respected what the governor has asked people to do.
Your story scared me. Not.

I do find it interesting that you put yourself in the same place and time as this other family, but it is them that is to blame, and not you. Hrmm....
 
Having been exposed to Covid from a family that came from Texas to New York and didn't quarantine, I personally would appreciate it if people would do as they're asked. I got lucky. We came into contact with these people outdoors, and didn't catch it. The family they were visiting weren't so lucky. All 5 of them caught it from the TX branch of the family. The father is an active-duty Navy SEAL. He wound up in the ICU with a 103-degree fever. He told me afterwards that during that time, he was counting his life in ten-minute increments. I.e. "I can make it another ten minutes." And then ten minutes later: "I can make it another ten minutes."

I don't think there's any real enforcement, although I'm sure there would be consequences if you got caught, particularly if you brought the disease with you and spread it. But it would be nice if people would have consideration for others and respected what the governor has asked people to do.


You mean you never showed symptoms or you have been tested and it has never been positive? I know a freshman in college that has never been sick, his dad was, and tested positive and is now living in a hotel suite paid for by the university.

Clearly you need to be quarantined and tested, only to be released after three consecutive negative tested during the quarantine period. (Yeah, there are officials just salivating at doing this to everyone, even against their will)

My advice from day 1, if you're not sick, don't get tested. There is no benefit to it. If you get a false positive you just screwed yourself. Hopefully you can endure the economic fallout from it. There are plenty whom can't.
 
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You mean you never showed symptoms or you have been tested and it has never been positive? I know a freshman in college that has never been sick, his dad was, and tested positive and is now living in a hotel suite paid for by the university.

Clearly you need to be quarantined and tested, only to be released after three consecutive negative tested during the quarantine period. (Yeah, there are officials just salivating at doing this to everyone, even against their will)

My advice from day 1, if you're not sick, don't get tested. There is no benefit to it. If you get a false positive you just screwed yourself. Hopefully you can endure the economic fallout from it. There are plenty whom can't.
We did test negative, and quarantined for 14 days as a precaution.
 
Nope, but at least some of the other possibilities are more political in nature.

you said "that only means"...

now you admit that there are other possibilities to explain covid-19 experiences in the US versus other countries. I trust you would agree that not everything is about politics.
 
Your story scared me. Not.

I do find it interesting that you put yourself in the same place and time as this other family, but it is them that is to blame, and not you. Hrmm....
I'm not sure what you read, but I didn't blame anyone. I absolutely blame myself as much as anyone else. And my intent wasn't to scare you, but rather to point out that you can't be sure what the consequences of your actions might be, and that there are reasons why we have the rules we do.
 
I'd like to know how the raging diabetes and metabolic syndrome epidemic influences COVID outcomes. I'm aware there are young athlete types dying of COVID, obviously their complete medical history isn't published in the news.

My 94 year old grandma spent a month in a nursing home after a stroke, no COVID issues and is back home.
 
I'd like to know how the raging diabetes and metabolic syndrome epidemic influences COVID outcomes.

My 94 year old grandma spent a month in a nursing home after a stroke, no COVID issues and is back home.
Being overweight is one of the biggest secondary factors in covid deaths.
 
I'm not sure what you read, but I didn't blame anyone. I absolutely blame myself as much as anyone else. And my intent wasn't to scare you, but rather to point out that you can't be sure what the consequences of your actions might be, and that there are reasons why we have the rules we do.
Yeah, your first sentence had no blame in it at all. :rolleyes:
 
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