7 open ended questions in one response? Good gosh Wayne, you must have been the ban to your kindergarten teacher.
I'm sure you think these are rhetorical questions you are asking but I'll address them anyways.
I think the average age of the fleet is 40+ years.
http://www.faa.gov/aircraft/air_cer...craft/media/aging_aircraft_best_practices.pdf
For what part of that 40 years have you owned a single airplane? What period of years do you use when advising potential buyers relative to their expected ownership period?
Pretty predictable and accelerating. In that time period of 40 years we've seen a whole class of Com radios outlawed, ELT's going from 121mhz to 40omhz, NDB's being retired whole sale, Mode C mandates, VOR's starting to bite the dust now, GPS now going to WAAS, ADS-B etc.
During that same 40 years how long has the typical individual owner been exposed to that risk? How much engine cost might he have incurred during that same ownership period? What would the total hourly/yearly ownership cost attributable to engines and avionics (money in less money out divided by use or time) have been?
Yet in that 40 year old plane... there is a good chance it's got the exact same engine core yet the electronics have been replaced 3 times over.
So it's safe to assume that you have located and interviewed these 40-year owners as part of your research?
So I'm putting a service life of 10-15 years on something that has a fancy display and requires firmware/database updates to remain viable.
While ignoring the service life and benefits derived from everything else in the panel? If not, what percentage of panel costs should be allocated to the equipment with much longer life?
Well, will that party please step forward because I'm not talking to him. Or did I miss the BSEE/PE after your name?
Answer will be recorded as "it was a swag, I don't have the foggiest notion, just thought I could run the bluff."
Wayne, I own a consulting firm that design's electronics/firmware/products. I've also run and started a number of high tech product based start up companies. Technology is accelerating, and between proprietary firmware, database updates, SMD technology and single source repair agreements... it's not the same world you grew up in.
And I've been doing reasonably well in the aviation consulting business. Aquisitions, dispositions, appraisals, etc. Which is more relevant?
I wish Avidyne well... because the biggest threat we face is Garmin's marketing practices. There simply was no reason for the 650 to not be tray compatible with the 430W... as best I can tell the only difference being they have a serial number EEPROM on the 650's tray... which is designed to squeeze the last penny out of the user, since apparently some FBO's where sharing their 430W between airframes.
Which is what you know as of now and virtually worthless in the long run. With history as a guide, what has frequently happened to those were thought to be unassailable?
How did Garmin rise to power in spite of the resources of BK?
Have any other plug/play avionics products been developed? Are they currently being sold? What's the potential benefit to owners if/when it happens? What percentage of replacement cost can be eliminated by use of plug/play?
Sigh.... more rhetorical questions Wayne, just make a statement of fact/opinion. It's saves alot of time.
The questions aren't rhetorical they're cross-examination. So far your case isn't faring well.
None-the-less, I think we are saying the same thing..
No, we're saying exactly opposite things, you're just now coming to realize that you're on the wrong side of the argument and haven't carefully analyzed the actual costs involved.
.. just arriving at different conclusions.
Devices with displays/firmware/databases come to the end of their service life quite quickly. Yet 10 years later, I've got a residual value (what the market place tells me) of maybe 50% on that GTN480 or 430W compared to something like a 650.
Nothing lasts forever, and this thread is SOLELY predicated on the ownership cost over an individual owner's estimated hold, and not on the history of GA.
I'm simply stating, buying that 10 year old glass panel may not be as good a deal as you think and most certainly fraught with risk.
Fancy/glass panels are cool... lots of wow there. So from an economic standpoint, they sell because people like eye candy. No doubt about that. But of the new owners I've known... the ones who favored fancy panels over solid mechanical's have been far more disappointed in their purchase.