Lets talk Thunderstorms

J

JasonM

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JM
I am debating on a flight tomorrow but there is a chance of Thunderstorms for most of the flight.

Leaving PIT (Pittsburgh PA) about 9 am, flying down to FDK (Frederick MD) to pick someone up, then up to CEF (Springfield MA) for a meeting and then back the same route, leaving around 5-6 PM in MA.

I have had to deviate around a thunderstorm before. I was nervous about it, but everything worked out good as I kept myself far away on my re-route around it. Difference in the trip tomorrow and the previous diversion, is that I thought I was going to beat the storms back. Tomorrow, they are forecast to be present.

Of course I don't need to go on this trip, but I would like to if I can still do it safely.

Would you fly if there was a chance of thunderstorms through your route?

Ceilings are forecast to be good, and precipitation is pretty minimal.

Could this be done safely as long as I was to dodge these storms?

Is there a good rule of thumb to any of this?

I know places like Florida get thunderstorms all the time and I have also have read story's about not canceling a trip because of them. I just don't have a lot of experience around them yet.

I am flying a C182 with the G1000, XM weather. Obviously there is a delay in the weather data.

Is it safe as long as you stay out of the yellow/red stuff?

Do you guys worry about lightening that may not come from a yellow/red cell?

Please lay it on me! :dunno:
 
I assume you are VFR. Isolated and Scattered do not bother ME but I have been around awhile. Also, a chance of thunderstorm forecast today does not make them a reality tomorrow (FWIW).

As long as you can see them and avoid them by a fairly wide margin, I see no problem with them as long as they ARE isolated or scattered. When they are more widespread, that is when I get nervous.

Having said that, being nervous is a good thing. You have to go with what YOU feel comfortable with.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
I assume you are VFR. Isolated and Scattered do not bother ME but I have been around awhile. Also, a chance of thunderstorm forecast today does not make them a reality tomorrow (FWIW).

As long as you can see them and avoid them by a fairly wide margin, I see no problem with them as long as they ARE isolated or scattered. When they are more widespread, that is when I get nervous.

Having said that, being nervous is a good thing. You have to go with what YOU feel comfortable with.
Click to expand...


Thanks Greg. I can only assume that the weather will look similar to this stuff that is heading my way. How would this make you feel?

643vyo.jpg
 
JasonM said:
Thanks Greg. I can only assume that the weather will look similar to this stuff that is heading my way. How would this make you feel?

643vyo.jpg
Click to expand...

With something like that, if probably fly around them. You just don't have good enough information or a high enough ceiling to pick your way through them. Either way, use your eyeballs...you can tell when it's bad.
 
Make no assumptions as to tomorrow's weather based on today's. En route thunderstorms are no big deal if you're VMC. Deviate around them. ATC can help, although they have limits as to willingness, radar coverage, and capability. NEXRAD is better.

As for thunderstorms, check FlightAware N488SP for Friday and Saturday's recent flights.
 
Remember to pick a route with a wide margin from the storms, deviate to the *upwind* of them, and be mindful that xm data is delayed up to 15-20 minutes. Also, be prepared to divert and land somewhere unplanned if things look bad or if you feel uncomfortable with the weather.
 
In the southeast we'd never get to fly in the summer if we only flew on days that Tstms weren't forecasted. Scattered area thunderstorms are not a problem. While unpredictable, you can still easily navigate around them. If we're talking frontal line Tstms, well that's a whole different story. Usually, those are predictable in the movement but also in their definition. A lot of times there's no way of getting around them. Either type I use all available tools (XM ATC) to get around them.

In EMS, wx forecasting during the summer is kind of a crapshoot. You could accept a flight to some some hospital and the weather looks good but by the time you show up, a cell has formed right over where you have to land. I've also turned down flights because a huge cell was headed right for the proposed LZ only to see 30 minutes later dissipate to nothing. That's just the unpredictable nature of area single cell storms. You win some, you lose some.

If you're flying for recreation, just have a good backup plan. I flew up to OSH in 2009 and they shutdown arrivals because of a storm right over the field. I was still 60 miles south at the time and kept pressing on. If I showed up and things didn't look good, I still had enough fuel to divert to an acceptable field SW of there. As it happened, by the time I showed up the storm was gone and I landed no problem.
 
WWJMD?

Be careful bud. Not sure who your pax is but if you're nervous think about how he feels.
 
Brad Z said:
With something like that, if probably fly around them. You just don't have good enough information or a high enough ceiling to pick your way through them. Either way, use your eyeballs...you can tell when it's bad.
Click to expand...

Am I pretty good as long as I stay visually clear of the heavy precip?

Ted DuPuis said:
Make no assumptions as to tomorrow's weather based on today's. En route thunderstorms are no big deal if you're VMC. Deviate around them. ATC can help, although they have limits as to willingness, radar coverage, and capability. NEXRAD is better.

As for thunderstorms, check FlightAware N488SP for Friday and Saturday's recent flights.
Click to expand...

Holy $h^t.. You must like the challenge. Any chance you can give me a play by play. What your thinking when flying and looking for. Looks like you have a lot of experience in these.

pilotjlr said:
Remember to pick a route with a wide margin from the storms, deviate to the *upwind* of them, and be mindful that xm data is delayed up to 15-20 minutes. Also, be prepared to divert and land somewhere unplanned if things look bad or if you feel uncomfortable with the weather.
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upwind of one could be downwind of another though right? whats the rule when passing in between cells?

Velocity173 said:
In the southeast we'd never get to fly in the summer if we only flew on days that Tstms weren't forecasted. Scattered area thunderstorms are not a problem. While unpredictable, you can still easily navigate around them. If we're talking frontal line Tstms, well that's a whole different story. Usually, those are predictable in the movement but also in their definition. A lot of times there's no way of getting around them. Either type I use all available tools (XM ATC) to get around them.

In EMS, wx forecasting during the summer is kind of a crapshoot. You could accept a flight to some some hospital and the weather looks good but by the time you show up, a cell has formed right over where you have to land. I've also turned down flights because a huge cell was headed right for the proposed LZ only to see 30 minutes later dissipate to nothing. That's just the unpredictable nature of area single cell storms. You win some, you lose some.

If you're flying for recreation, just have a good backup plan. I flew up to OSH in 2009 and they shutdown arrivals because of a storm right over the field. I was still 60 miles south at the time and kept pressing on. If I showed up and things didn't look good, I still had enough fuel to divert to an acceptable field SW of there. As it happened, by the time I showed up the storm was gone and I landed no problem.
Click to expand...

Your post and others in places like FL is exactly why I am looking at this as a doable flight. I just want to make sure I am doing things as safe as possible when venturing in between this stuff.



So is there any good rules like stay atleast X miles from a cell over X size , Don't cross between cells that are yellow or red? stuff like that?


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Bases solely on the radar picture you post, i would feel comfortable circumnavigating around those clusters (not within the clusters) as long as I could remain in VMC other than 10-20 sec at a time when punching through surrounding cumulus.

Here are 2 flights I had (pic and video included) where I to deviate around t-storms using Nexrad, ATC and of course, the Mark I eyeballs.

http://forums.aopa.org/showthread.php?t=82200

http://forums.aopa.org/showthread.php?t=91123

Ironically, both segments just happen to be the first leg kicking off my annual GA grand vacation (Bahamas in 2012, then Subarctic Quebec/Labrador in 2013) so there was a "dash" of get-there-itis to contend with (I didnt let that get to me though)
 
AFD...."SCT MID CLOUDS AND A CANOPY OF CIRRUS DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IL/IA AS OF 23Z COULD HOLD TOGETHER
AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. DO NOT FORESEE ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY
THEY CURRENTLY HAVE...HOWEVER A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VIS/CIGS IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN OH HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING ZZV LATER TONIGHT...IF PCPN DOES OCCUR MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN MONDAY MORNING."

Precipitable water will be much higher up your way tomorrow, just like it was here today. Stuffy, slightly reduced visibility. We had fog that was slow to burn off due to clearing skies yesterday evening, so you may or may not too. Your highest MEF is 3500'. If I could cruise around 5,500 over, maintain good visibility and TS continued to be scattered...I would go. Of course you are the PIC. Be safe and have fun.
 
beestforwardspeed said:
Bases solely on the radar picture you post, i would feel comfortable circumnavigating around those clusters (not within the clusters) as long as I could remain in VMC other than 10-20 sec at a time when punching through surrounding cumulus.

Here are 2 flights I had (pic and video included) where I to deviate around t-storms using Nexrad, ATC and of course, the Mark I eyeballs.

http://forums.aopa.org/showthread.php?t=82200

http://forums.aopa.org/showthread.php?t=91123

Ironically, both segments just happen to be the first leg kicking off my annual GA grand vacation (Bahamas in 2012, then Subarctic Quebec/Labrador in 2013) so there was a "dash" of get-there-itis to contend with (I didnt let that get to me though)
Click to expand...

Thanks. Helpful, but different since you are IFR. I will be VFR and would assume it may be a little easier on me to spot the weather.

RV10flyer said:
AFD...."SCT MID CLOUDS AND A CANOPY OF CIRRUS DOMINATE THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IL/IA AS OF 23Z COULD HOLD TOGETHER
AND CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. DO NOT FORESEE ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY
THEY CURRENTLY HAVE...HOWEVER A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VIS/CIGS IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN
MENTION IN THE TERMINALS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN OH HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING ZZV LATER TONIGHT...IF PCPN DOES OCCUR MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN MONDAY MORNING."

Precipitable water will be much higher up your way tomorrow, just like it was here today. Stuffy, slightly reduced visibility. We had fog that was slow to burn off due to clearing skies yesterday evening, so you may or may not too. Your highest MEF is 3500'. If I could cruise around 5,500 over, maintain good visibility and TS continued to be scattered...I would go. Of course you are the PIC. Be safe and have fun.
Click to expand...

Thank you sir.
 
JasonM said:
Am I pretty good as long as I stay visually clear of the heavy precip?



Holy $h^t.. You must like the challenge. Any chance you can give me a play by play. What your thinking when flying and looking for. Looks like you have a lot of experience in these.



upwind of one could be downwind of another though right? whats the rule when passing in between cells?



Your post and others in places like FL is exactly why I am looking at this as a doable flight. I just want to make sure I am doing things as safe as possible when venturing in between this stuff.



So is there any good rules like stay atleast X miles from a cell over X size , Don't cross between cells that are yellow or red? stuff like that?


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Click to expand...

Well, of course the AIM recommends 20 miles. That's a bit conservative in my opinion. I've skirted 3-5 miles before and only gotten moderate turbulence. Everyone has their own different safety buffer. I've flown around thunderstorms in the southeast for 20 yrs and never had problems. Just ALWAYs stay in VMC.

Your worry shouldn't be lightning either. If you fly a metal certified aircraft and get struck, you'd end up with maybe some fried radios and melted hole in your wing tip. Your big worry should be damaging hail and winds. Turbulence can tear your aircraft apart. Doesn't have to be in the cell either.

XM wx helps but plenty of times you'll see it's old. I prefer ATC vectors if you can get it. They have the best picture of realtime storms around you. Most show different levels of intensity as well. Be cautious with vectors though. Don't be afraid to call it quits if the vector doesn't look good. Years ago when I worked approach I was vectoring a PA-31 between areas of precipitation on my scope. I though I took him thru a good gap only to hear him say "we just got severe turbulence through that area approach. Don't take anyone else thru there." I felt bad but unfortunately turbulence isn't displayed on the scope, only areas of precipitation that look like cauliflower. That's why you'll see some controllers that want no part in trying to vector aircraft around cells all day. Some don't want the responsibility and just simply tell the pilot to deviate as necessary.

My own personal rule when flying recreational around storms mirrors my company's policy on wx avoidance. Don't fly into areas of embedded thunderstorms or into squall lines. Stay VMC and always have a divert plan.
 
JasonM said:
Holy $h^t.. You must like the challenge. Any chance you can give me a play by play. What your thinking when flying and looking for. Looks like you have a lot of experience in these.
Click to expand...

Well, this was in a 310 with WX-500 and a KWX56, so a lot of what I was doing wasn't necessarily relevant for a plane with NEXRAD. But a few general tips.

If it's a cell, you'll be able to see where it is visually (unless it's embedded). Just stay out of it. If you can stay in VMC, all the better.

If it's a line, you should also be able to see where it starts and ends. There are holes (which you can better spot visually than on NEXRAD), but those can close up. Many people go through holes, myself included.

ATC can help, but you're better off using your NEXRAD in most cases for planning.

I haven't been tangling with these things nearly as long as Greg has, but I've done it enough that it doesn't keep me on the ground. I never relax around storms, and am respectful of their power. For that whole trip, I was at heightened awareness. I'm happy with a 3-5 mile buffer if I'm visual. Really dark clouds are bad.

My instructor told me early on in my flying career "If you fly around storms, one day you'll end up in one." If you do, make sure the wings stay level, don't fight altitude changes.
 
Thunderstorms in FL are something completely different from stuff I've encountered in the rest of the US. Navigation around a cell in FL is straight forward.

Take caution where you are located. I wouldn't approach a storm with the same mentality I would down south.
 
Cpt_Kirk said:
Thunderstorms in FL are something completely different from stuff I've encountered in the rest of the US. Navigation around a cell in FL is straight forward.

Take caution where you are located. I wouldn't approach a storm with the same mentality I would down south.
Click to expand...

This is an excellent point. Storms absolutely have different characteristics in different parts of the country.
 
Take your time, always have a plan B (back door retreat), and be patient when you are not comfortable. Thunderstorms are no joke but they are also extremely manageable for the most part, you just need to build the knowledge and then experience to know when to wait, dodge, or go to the bar. At the end of the day we do this for fun first and then convenience. If you're up to it, look at the wx in the morning and notice trends from what you've seen previously....movement, building, intensity, cloud cover, solid line vs line with holes to punch through. Another tip is not to penetrate a line with XM when in IMC. XM is extremely reliable but not definitive. Only radar can give you an absolute picture of what is ahead of the airplane if used correctly. Better yet is radar and XM...XM for the bigger picture and radar for the fine threading. Anyways, I hope this helps and doesn't confuse you more. Cheers!
 
ATC radar only picks up precipitation, and ARTCC weather radar is horribly lagged. ATC NEXRAD has up to a 15 minute delay in relaying true time weather data. I'm not sure how weather patterns are down in FL, but in the Midwest 15 minutes is plenty of time for a weather pattern to go from nothing to a level 5 storm.

If all you have is NEXRAD updates and you are talking to a center, visual diversion from weather is the way to go. If possible, launch pre-dawn to avoid the most convective buildups.
 
20 mi horizontal and 1,000' verticial for every 10kts of wind.
 
Velocity173 said:
Well, of course the AIM recommends 20 miles. That's a bit conservative in my opinion. I've skirted 3-5 miles before and only gotten moderate turbulence..
Click to expand...

As others have stated, different storms require different levels of respect. A huge cell that spreads for miles and reaches 50,000', complete with hail, can reach out and touch you 15 miles away with the hail plume and/or strong winds. 20 miles isn't a bad recommendation in that situation.

A little isolated pop-up cell (like we get frequently in the SE during the summer) is a cakewalk in comparison. Stay 3-5 miles away and you're likely to be fine.
 
I've picked my way through TS with my friends. It's not hard if you know what the storms are doing.

As the others have said NEXRAD can be up to 20 minutes old. Do not skirt downwind of the storms using this information. You'll find yourself in the middle of it all. Make SURE your NEXRAD radar feed is displaying composite view. If you are viewing the base returns you are not seeing the bulk of the storm.

Be aware of downdrafts on the outer flanks of the storm, especially if it's mature or dissipating. Read up on microbursts and how to avoid, recognize and/or get yourself out of one. The most dangerous aspects of t-storms are the up/downdrafts and hail.

Never, never, and I repeat NEVER race a storm into the airport. If you think the storm will be on top of you at landing, divert to another airfield. Good people have been killed by pilots trying to beat a storm. e.g. AA1420

This is not to scare you! :yes: Make yourself knowledgable, go out, complete your flight, and have fun.

Remember at the end of the day your the PIC.
 
I know a friend that was 10 nm E of a level 5 TS that was passing over the shore near JAX in June 2012. He was way out over water at 3500'. He said the top was at 60,000', it was very dark and the side went straight up. He did not feel a thing, but would not recommend going that close again or that far out over shark infested waters.

I think I read somewhere that a TS in Florida with tops at 60,000' can have a similar intensity as one in Wisconsin at 40,000'.
 
Velocity173 said:
Well, of course the AIM recommends 20 miles. That's a bit conservative in my opinion. I've skirted 3-5 miles before and only gotten moderate turbulence. Everyone has their own different safety buffer. I've flown around thunderstorms in the southeast for 20 yrs and never had problems. Just ALWAYs stay in VMC.

Your worry shouldn't be lightning either. If you fly a metal certified aircraft and get struck, you'd end up with maybe some fried radios and melted hole in your wing tip. Your big worry should be damaging hail and winds. Turbulence can tear your aircraft apart. Doesn't have to be in the cell either.

XM wx helps but plenty of times you'll see it's old. I prefer ATC vectors if you can get it. They have the best picture of realtime storms around you. Most show different levels of intensity as well. Be cautious with vectors though. Don't be afraid to call it quits if the vector doesn't look good. Years ago when I worked approach I was vectoring a PA-31 between areas of precipitation on my scope. I though I took him thru a good gap only to hear him say "we just got severe turbulence through that area approach. Don't take anyone else thru there." I felt bad but unfortunately turbulence isn't displayed on the scope, only areas of precipitation that look like cauliflower. That's why you'll see some controllers that want no part in trying to vector aircraft around cells all day. Some don't want the responsibility and just simply tell the pilot to deviate as necessary.

My own personal rule when flying recreational around storms mirrors my company's policy on wx avoidance. Don't fly into areas of embedded thunderstorms or into squall lines. Stay VMC and always have a divert plan.
Click to expand...

Two experiences about skirting thunderstorms that governed my actions for the rest of my career: First was on the east side of the Cascade Mountains, heading east, well past the summits; I was maintaining visual separation from a big ugly one a good 20 miles or more away....suddenly it sounded like someone was throwing steamer trunks at the airplane: I was getting hail downwind of the storm. That one dimpled the leading edges of a 172 and cost me the deductible...but I was in the clear...I thought.

Second was a trip in a Twinkie back to Indiana to show off my wife. Didn't do too good a job of separation and forgot that the elevator for thunderstorm energy goes up the middle of the cloud and the descending air descends (duh) on the outside. I got caught in a downdraft external to the cloud and rolled 60 degrees or so in a heartbeat. Amazingly, she continued to fly with me, IFR and VFR, for many more years.

Bob Gardner
 
Brad Z said:
With something like that, if probably fly around them. You just don't have good enough information or a high enough ceiling to pick your way through them. Either way, use your eyeballs...you can tell when it's bad.
Click to expand...

This is true. This is the storm I encountered on my trip from kstl today. Had to divert.
 
JasonM said:
Am I pretty good as long as I stay visually clear of the heavy precip?



Holy $h^t.. You must like the challenge. Any chance you can give me a play by play. What your thinking when flying and looking for. Looks like you have a lot of experience in these.



upwind of one could be downwind of another though right? whats the rule when passing in between cells?



Your post and others in places like FL is exactly why I am looking at this as a doable flight. I just want to make sure I am doing things as safe as possible when venturing in between this stuff.



So is there any good rules like stay atleast X miles from a cell over X size , Don't cross between cells that are yellow or red? stuff like that?


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-
-
Click to expand...

Don't try to pass between cells. It can be a suckers bet. Even super pilots can get their wings ripped off. see Scott Crossfield.
 
kyleb said:
As others have stated, different storms require different levels of respect. A huge cell that spreads for miles and reaches 50,000', complete with hail, can reach out and touch you 15 miles away with the hail plume and/or strong winds. 20 miles isn't a bad recommendation in that situation.

A little isolated pop-up cell (like we get frequently in the SE during the summer) is a cakewalk in comparison. Stay 3-5 miles away and you're likely to be fine.
Click to expand...

Yep. That's pretty much my policy as well. I use different distances based on the conditions. If it's a serious squall line, you won't see me anywhere near it. I just don't use a hard & fast rule when it comes to how far to stay away from a storm.

Another thing I consider is if I'm going to be flying locally or on a XC. Locally I can go out and dive back into the airport if things start to get bad. XC, it might not be worth my time if I'm bouncing around and deviating all over the sky.
 
JasonM said:
I am debating on a flight tomorrow but there is a chance of Thunderstorms for most of the flight.

Please lay it on me! :dunno:
Click to expand...

The only 2 cents I'd add (that I may have overlooked in the previous posts) is your XM Weather is a strategic, not tactical tool. Sometimes the air is really clear around thunderstorms and your eyes can see the dangers fine. Sometimes it's hazy/imbedded and your eyes can lie to you. Whatever the case, use XM to see the trend of the storms: are they building or dissipating, is the track holding steady or changing, how are the conditions at your destination changing, etc... Don't use XM to guess close-in or attempt to be tactical; rather, use it to plan 50-100+ miles out of what track you're going to take so as to miss anything that even slightly looks like it has teeth.

If you aren't on a time-table or carrying skittish passengers, I'd say give your trip a try with full weather briefing before departure, double checking your XM subscription is paid up, and pack a book or two in case you find yourself sitting down in the middle of nowhere to wait it out. With a healthy dose of appreciation of how dangerous the storms can be, you likely learn a lot by taking some measured, reasonable risks.

That and get your IR if you want make this routine. A big storms passes, drops lots of water, cools everything way down, dew point spread converges, and you could have a low layer appear out of no where, in minutes, covering a big area if the conditions are right. That and I've been in plenty of "VFR" conditions were I can't see a thing.

Just my 2 cents -- and worth what you paid for it.
 
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I'm not sure if this was mentioned but pop up thunderstorms are a different beast than frontal activity. Below is what was going on here on Saturday. On top of the frontal storms, there were pop ups occurring as well.

Also, getting an early start will also help with the type of pop ups you may see.

e6a5uju7.jpg
 
So is there any good rules like stay atleast X miles from a cell over X size , Don't cross between cells that are yellow or red? stuff like that?


Google Dr. William Stahle. He is the person who put together the technology that became XM Weather. He has published a series of guidelines for flying thunderstorms with XM. Also does an excellent presentation about flying with satellite weather.

Alan
 
Having flown a looooong time VFR, here's my advice. A VFR XC in iffy weather is a series of short XCs with the intent to LAND and bail out if conditions make your warning bells go off in your head. T-storms, usually that's more than scattered and not enough room between them to go around them.

Plan to land. Be happily "surprised" when the weather cooperates. It'll cooperate more than you think but once in a while it'll just slam the door on proceeding further. You just land and wait.

Also don't get "locked in" to your little hops and intended landing places. If the storms decide to build a line between you and that place, know how to divert to unfamiliar fields.

It's a lot easier to read a weather map/radar depiction, on the ground in the FBO, than in flight. With practice you'll feel more confident with certain types of conditions, but if unsure, just land and look it over. Sometimes you miss that it's a line and you can make an end run around it, or similar, looking at it on avionics while trying to fly. On a nice big screen at the FBO, it looks much clearer.

Other non-bold old pilot trick: Have a few phone numbers of other pilots at your disposal. I've gotten calls from friends saying, "I'm a little unsure. Would you look and see what you think?" I ask them not to tell me their thoughts and I look as if I were there if I'm at a computer, then I'll give my opinion and see if they were thinking similarly and listen for key words or voice tone that indicates any "get-there-itis". If nobody answered - ask around the FBO for a CFI's number or if one is around. I haven't met one yet who wouldn't help out a non-local transient pilot look at local weather.

And while it ain't the greatest these days, you can always call FSS. The keywords "VFR Flight Not Recommended" are sometimes over-used in our litigious society but they're still an important clue.

I think you'll find that thunderstorms are flyable weather if they're not directly in your path and scattered, but you have to dip a toe in the water and be willing to land and yank it out.

My favorite was a few years ago when a friend wisely made a 350 mile detour to get to OSH, covering an extra State and an extra fuel stop to get there. The line of t-storms was right and unrelenting, but ended abruptly over Kansas somewhere. He went around. Made an extra fuel stop. Met some nice folks at an airport in the middle of nowhere, and easily arrived in one piece about 2 hours later than planned.
 
Hopefully you made it out of PIT ahead of the Convective SIGMET.
 
This line had a few weaker areas to pass through. Ceilings and visibilities were good. Slowed to Va 125 kias at 3500'. Moved us slowly around in pitch/roll/yaw for about 5 minutes. I would not have wanted to be in a plane with any lighter wing loading than mine (18 lbs/sqft). Passed through it near CVG, turned NE to parallel it to home base. After putting the plane away, driving down the road, it was just starting to move over the airport(45 min after landing). Like others on here, know when to knock it off and know where you are going to go.

photo-34.png
[/URL][/IMG]
 
JasonM said:
Am I pretty good as long as I stay visually clear of the heavy precip?
Click to expand...
For the most part yes.

JasonM said:
Holy $h^t.. You must like the challenge. Any chance you can give me a play by play. What your thinking when flying and looking for. Looks like you have a lot of experience in these.
Click to expand...
Yes he has lots of experience, and a capable a/c, IFR and a radar. That makes a big difference.

Ted DuPuis said:
If it's a cell, you'll be able to see where it is visually (unless it's embedded). Just stay out of it. If you can stay in VMC, all the better.

If it's a line, you should also be able to see where it starts and ends. There are holes (which you can better spot visually than on NEXRAD), but those can close up. Many people go through holes, myself included.

ATC can help, but you're better off using your NEXRAD in most cases for planning.

I haven't been tangling with these things nearly as long as Greg has, but I've done it enough that it doesn't keep me on the ground. I never relax around storms, and am respectful of their power. For that whole trip, I was at heightened awareness. I'm happy with a 3-5 mile buffer if I'm visual. Really dark clouds are bad.

My instructor told me early on in my flying career "If you fly around storms, one day you'll end up in one." If you do, make sure the wings stay level, don't fight altitude changes.
Click to expand...
:yeahthat:

fastair5 said:
Take your time, always have a plan B (back door retreat), and be patient when you are not comfortable. Thunderstorms are no joke but they are also extremely manageable for the most part, you just need to build the knowledge and then experience to know when to wait, dodge, or go to the bar. At the end of the day we do this for fun first and then convenience. If you're up to it, look at the wx in the morning and notice trends from what you've seen previously....movement, building, intensity, cloud cover, solid line vs line with holes to punch through. Another tip is not to penetrate a line with XM when in IMC. XM is extremely reliable but not definitive. Only radar can give you an absolute picture of what is ahead of the airplane if used correctly. Better yet is radar and XM...XM for the bigger picture and radar for the fine threading. Anyways, I hope this helps and doesn't confuse you more. Cheers!
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And this......:thumbsup:

-Being VFR you should be able to see most of them and just go around, no big deal. If you get to a point where you can't quite distinguish what is going on, trust your intuition and find a place to land and check it out, it will serve you well.
-Call flight service in the air
-Use the NEXRAD in your a/c....that makes it almost too easy.
-If it starts closing up, well thats the way it goes sometimes and you will just have to wait it out.
-Good luck, i bet it will be a non-event.
 
Well, the decision was made for me on the other end before takeoff (meeting canceled). I checked the weather and would have been able to beat the storms out and it still looks like it would have been an uneventful flight today. I was more concerned about the trip home, so I will be interested to see how things progress today. I'm going to keep a close eye on it and put myself out there during my planned times/positions for fun. I was looking forward to the challenge, but when ever something this easy can change plans, I am certain it was for a reason.
 
JasonM said:
I was looking forward to the challenge, but when ever something this easy can change plans, I am certain it was for a reason.
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Yep, very true.
 
I've got a fair amount of time in/around TSRA. Living in Texas for 8 years will do that - lots of long distance travel.

You've gotten a lot of good advice here. I'll pass along one more piece: your options decrease dramatically as the airspace becomes more crowded.... and by your routing, you're traveling through some pretty heavily traveled airspace. Would you, for example, be comfortable traveling 50 miles offshore to avoid a cell in/around NYC? Or going up over Poughkeepsie/Albany to avoid storms? Those answers matter.

If it's frontal or a squall line, don't hesitate to land and wait out it's passage. I got to know the FBO at KMQY really well one day by doing that.

Personally, with a combination of Nexrad and Stormscope, I'll launch with a VCTS or scattered forecast - but always knowing what my "out" will be. I've had to excercise "plan B" several times - including one time where Dallas regional approach shut the airspace just before I entered going into Redbird. Always be prepared if the question "state intentions" is asked.

As for using the equipment, watch the trends, not just the instantaneous picture - radar loop is your friend. If the trend shows cells diverging or dissipating, it MAY be OK to thread between the cells, if they're stationary or moving together (or growing), don't even think about it. Mostly it's about reading all you can & gaining experience in both the weather and your equipment.
 
It's only happened to me twice, both times in a turbo commander with a real pro flying, with a storm scope. Both times the turbulence was really bad, rain pounding on the windshield, etc. lightning, niece in rear seat crying, etc. This was 30 years ago. After that I never needed to ask about flying in "iffy" conditions. ( things can go south very quickly. Remember the high time astronaut not long ago in a Cessna?)
 
Jimmy cooper said:
It's only happened to me twice, both times in a turbo commander with a real pro flying, with a storm scope. Both times the turbulence was really bad, rain pounding on the windshield, etc. lightning, niece in rear seat crying, etc. This was 30 years ago. After that I never needed to ask about flying in "iffy" conditions. ( things can go south very quickly. Remember the high time astronaut not long ago in a Cessna?)
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Not an astronaut, but uber test pilot Scott Crossfield, the first pilot to fly at twice the speed of sound.

He died on 19 April 2006 in a Cessna 210A in a thunderstorm.
 
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