EdFred
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We'll probably find out that there's going to be some genetic marker(s) that determines whether a person who contracts it ends up being asymptomatic or dead, or something in between.
Know anyone with Coronavirus?
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denverpilot
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Was it here or somewhere else someone posted an article saying some bored researcher with Excel saw a correlation to ancient Neanderthal genes from a certain tribe?
There’s soooooo many problems with that mathematically, but it was worth a click for a good laugh.
“All you Neanderthal bastards are gonna DIE!!!!” Lol
ElPaso Pilot
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Juliet Hotel
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Well the article is dated yesterday but when you read it you learn the 10 of the deaths happened between April and May and the 13th happened almost a month ago.
Juliet Hotel
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More likely it'll turn out to be a combination of genetic markers, and other factors like comorbidity and amount of exposure.
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Bob Noel
now people are linking male pattern baldness to increased risk of serious covid-19 symptoms.
Couldn't be because the bald guys tend to be OLD.... nah (as an old bald guy, I can get away with saying that...)
where did I leave my vit D?
Couldn't be because the bald guys tend to be OLD.... nah (as an old bald guy, I can get away with saying that...)
where did I leave my vit D?
denverpilot
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Anyone interested in the tests available and error rates and such — this is a decent reference.
If nothing else, having to spin the scroll wheel like you’re on Wheel of Fortune just to get through them all, shows what the magnitude of the data collection process problems are already becoming when one aggregates all the different testing methods into one big pile of number dung.
“Which test was used?”
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...QjYZE9s1ugPvPxJhBnCf1LJZE4xHR6pTCB8VBY3Q0Ky00
If nothing else, having to spin the scroll wheel like you’re on Wheel of Fortune just to get through them all, shows what the magnitude of the data collection process problems are already becoming when one aggregates all the different testing methods into one big pile of number dung.
“Which test was used?”
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices...QjYZE9s1ugPvPxJhBnCf1LJZE4xHR6pTCB8VBY3Q0Ky00
Maybe their paperwork got mixed up with somebody else's.
PeterNSteinmetz
Ejection Handle Pulled
Agreed if there is a valve. Most N95 masks that I see don’t have one. I think is more common in the N100 masks to reduce respiratory effort on exhalation.
Back in the days when hardware stores had them in stock, they generally had both types. The ones with the valve are more expensive, so I always bought the ones without when I was dealing with mold issues.
I'm wondering if, with all the stuff we know now, telling people to "stay at home" wasn't the wrong direction. Maybe it should have been "go outside but don't congregate".
As a trained pilot and someone who reads a lot on on the internet, my professional intuition is that a lot more of the population currently has or had this thing than we think. Am I right? Who knows, by the time we really know what was right and wrong definitively this will probably all be over.
Personally though, I like how the Sweeds did it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
As a trained pilot and someone who reads a lot on on the internet, my professional intuition is that a lot more of the population currently has or had this thing than we think. Am I right? Who knows, by the time we really know what was right and wrong definitively this will probably all be over.
Personally though, I like how the Sweeds did it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
midwestpa24
Final Approach
Consider it anecdotal or not, but during the first big surge, I didn't know a single person first hand that the virus. Of course in the rural midwest it wasn't nearly as prevalent at the time.
Today I know of at least a couple of dozen people that have had some level of symptoms and tested positive, including a few that were hospitalized for a period. It seems like nearly every business around here has now had to get their facility cleaned and staff tested because a staff member has been sick. It certainly has spread to here.
I don't know if what most have experienced is worth the hype, but I can also see the side that it can't be ignored. The ones I know that were hospitalized needed critical care, and if that care wasn't available because it was overwhelmed they may not have survived.
Today I know of at least a couple of dozen people that have had some level of symptoms and tested positive, including a few that were hospitalized for a period. It seems like nearly every business around here has now had to get their facility cleaned and staff tested because a staff member has been sick. It certainly has spread to here.
I don't know if what most have experienced is worth the hype, but I can also see the side that it can't be ignored. The ones I know that were hospitalized needed critical care, and if that care wasn't available because it was overwhelmed they may not have survived.
Morgan3820
Ejection Handle Pulled
We are all going to get this in the end. Few people can say they have never had the flu or a cold. The best that we can hope for is a vaccine that would give our immune system a head start.
midwestpa24
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From the actual medical information I have seen (not media sources), the idea of a vaccine golden bullet is probably a pipe dream. It sounds like there has never been a truly effective vaccine for a coronavirus, due to the nature of coronaviruses. Don't ask me to explain why, because I'm a pilot not a doctor or scientists.
The intriguing part to me is despite the spread of the virus currently, the death toll hasn't quite seen the same expected surge. It is increasing, but not nearly as bad as I would have even expected. I think that is because the treatment protocols have evolved, giving patients better survival odds. Early on patients were being sedated and intubated early on. Now only the most severe cases get intubated, while the rest are being treated with high flow oxygen. As I believed early on, effective treatment is probably the answer more than a vaccine. As long as we can effectively treat sick patients without requiring the need for limited critical care resources, we can tolerate a significant amount of spread, just like flu or other common illnesses.
denverpilot
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The math falls apart there.
Death rate fell off a 4x or higher multiples cliff whereas the reported “saves” from better treatments haven’t even held 2x in studies.
Something else changed.
But it’s a commonly held fallacy due to all of us being “hopeful” about treatments.
Totally normal emotional reaction, but the numbers don’t match by a significant multiplier.
Juliet Hotel
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Confirmed cases and deaths get reported daily. Studies take time to produce. Don't you think that could account for some of the difference?
denverpilot
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Would be true if we weren’t also 4x past the two week “lag” between cases and deaths.
The death rate trend has been sharply downward for over two months in the vast majority of locations.
But even “lag” can be estimated to fix it and give an upper and lower limit based on moving average of past data. That’s not ideal, but as mentioned above, not even really needed at this point.
Cases is a linear upward slope. Deaths is a curved end to a bump, meaning it fell off nearly exponentially. Which is wild. Nothing reported as an alleviation of deaths comes close to that. Not even combining them.
Mathematically the two SHOULD have tracked together as an upward linear slope, even if better treatments “kinked” the death rate slope lower. And of course death rate would have been a less steep slope to begin with. But it should be rising.
(Remember this is the slope of the rate. Not totals of either. Those both rise until it’s over.)
midwestpa24
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Again my disclaimer, I'm not a scientist, I'm not a doctor, and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express in at least the last 4 months.
I think the mathematics are skewed by a couple of things. First, in March-May, testing was fairly minimal. Only the sickest were even being tested. Around here you couldn't even get a test unless you had x out of x many symptoms, and at least a fever of 100.4. Anything less you were just told to quarantine and not worry about it. Today they are testing nearly anyone that wants one. Here anyone having any kind of procedure is being tested, and I think there are a lot of positives that are being found while showing little to no symptoms. I think that is driving a lot of the large spike in new cases. I think we are seeing a second wave, but I don't think the case numbers alone are as bad a sign as some would like us to believe. Testing up, cases going up.
Now on the death side, we are starting to see a resurgence in the death toll. Its about a month delayed versus 2 weeks, for whatever the reason. Perhaps the newer treatments are prolonging survival for the sickest patients. Will we see the death rate reach the levels seen in April? I doubt it, because of the change in protocols. I could be wrong though.
I think the mathematics are skewed by a couple of things. First, in March-May, testing was fairly minimal. Only the sickest were even being tested. Around here you couldn't even get a test unless you had x out of x many symptoms, and at least a fever of 100.4. Anything less you were just told to quarantine and not worry about it. Today they are testing nearly anyone that wants one. Here anyone having any kind of procedure is being tested, and I think there are a lot of positives that are being found while showing little to no symptoms. I think that is driving a lot of the large spike in new cases. I think we are seeing a second wave, but I don't think the case numbers alone are as bad a sign as some would like us to believe. Testing up, cases going up.
Now on the death side, we are starting to see a resurgence in the death toll. Its about a month delayed versus 2 weeks, for whatever the reason. Perhaps the newer treatments are prolonging survival for the sickest patients. Will we see the death rate reach the levels seen in April? I doubt it, because of the change in protocols. I could be wrong though.
Flattening the curve seems to have extended the misery.... Sweeden had no mandatory lockdown and here's what their graph looks like
Flattening the curve seems to have extended the misery.... Sweeden had no mandatory lockdown and here's what their graph looks like
https://www.wsj.com/articles/scient...olicy-says-it-wasnt-strict-enough-11591196353
Of course, that's also not taking into account that Sweden also has much better medical care and their citizens are in much better health than their 'beetus ridden morbidly obese 'murican counterparts.
Sweden is the 6th healthiest country in the world and we are number 35. Interestingly every single one of the top 10 countries has some sort of universal healthcare system, but I'm sure doesn't have anything to do with it.
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Bob Noel
Couldn't have had anything to do with the number of index patients. Nope. Nothing to see there...
EdFred
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It doesn't. Not as much as something else does.
midwestpa24
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I've heard one theory, and it's hard to deny. We Americans are stubborn independent fools. Citizens in most countries tend to trust and follow their governments far more than us Americans. They say all you have to do to help prevent the spread is wear a mask, most of us say you can't make me, it's against my rights.
I'm not saying it's all bad to be independent, but if you look at it from an outsiders viewpoint, you can't deny it's true. Also why it's not surprising the US leads the world in cases. We are the third most populated, but China and India do a far better job of controlling their population than our country could ever attempt. Assuming you believe China's case count anymore.
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Timothy
I asked a friend of the family who is a nurse in a COVID unit the same question.
Her answer had a few parts to it.
1. NY had to triage cases, which means many people died who likely could have been saved.
2. Many of the initial protocols have actually proven to be harmful to survival. Many of the traditional methods, such as aggressive intubation actually reduced survival.
3. Due to lack of testing, they believe there were many more people infected than we know of.
Tim
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There is some evidence that the amount of virus that a person is exposed to is a factor in how severe a case of disease he gets. The NYC area wasn't very aware of the disease when it first got going and it's likely a lot of people were exposed to a lot of virus.
Juliet Hotel
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My wife gets paid very well to design and conduct studies with data collection phases that go well beyond 8 weeks (4x two week lag), just sayin'.
Which is?
EdFred
Taxi to Parking
Diet and lifestyle.
A country where twinkies and mt dew is the diet and playing video games is considered exercise isn't exactly going to crack the top 10.
denverpilot
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That has nothing to do with the slope downward going linearly down and ending, just the angle.
denverpilot
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Number 3 doesn’t explain the late split between cases and deaths. The deaths would have happened sooner back when the initial infections happened.
And as mentioned, the treatment changes haven’t made a 4 to 8 fold decrease in deaths anywhere, even the hot spots.
Triage accounts for some of it but if you remove the hot cities the death curve still falls off at the same overly high rate against cases. Testing doesn’t explain it.
denverpilot
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That’s nice. Tell her to explain the 4-8x drop then. It’s not lag.
I’ve always found it interesting looking back at WWII era documentaries how onboard the country was with everything. They had rationing, drives to collect metal and old tires for the war effort, etc and it looks like the public was pretty much cooperative. They trusted the government had their best interests in mind.
I don’t think that would happen now. We lost faith in the government at some point, I’d say mostly around the Vietnam war era. Not saying there want good reason for that mistrust but it really does weaken our ability to respond to things cohesively as a nation.
Arnold
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Do slovenly lifestyles lead to slovenly thinking. Rather than fat, dumb and happy are we now fat, dumb and dead?
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Bob Noel
probably the other way around.
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SoonerAviator
Well, I think that same spirit is alive and well, but there's nowhere to focus the effort. The country was being actively attacked by Jaoanese and German forces. People knew that Germany was actively taking over countries and killing their people. That fear was something everyone could see and do something about. I think the virus not being able to be "seen" and little threat that is going to have the same mortal consequences is what keeps people from wanting to fall in line.
Don't get me wrong, I think people trust the government much less these days, but the country spent a year after 9/11 being pretty nationalistic and happy to comply with whatever the government threw out.
Juliet Hotel
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If you're paying, she'll run a study on it and get back to you in 6-8 months. Get your checkbook out though, she don't work cheap.
My son's girlfriend had to get tested for work, and he was with her in the car at the testing facility (parking lot of an Urgent Care) and said "What the heck, swab me!" They then came to visit us in the mountains for a few days. We all did a six mile hike, 1200' vertical rise from 7.5k to 8.7k this morning. When we got back they both had email messages to schedule a tele-medicine visit with the testing facility: Positive times two. When asked about how their respiratory function was, they relayed the details of the hike and the Doc literally LOL'd. Totally asymptomatic. They were told to isolate, monitor their temperature, take vitamin C and Vitamin D3, and retest in two weeks. My wife and I will go get a test, continue to use normal precautions, and they will start their isolation by driving home instead of flying.
Well, the 27 year old Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is having heart complications as a result of Coronavirus.
ItS jUsT tHe FlU
ItS jUsT tHe FlU
NoHeat
Final Approach
Maybe there's now a four week lag between infections and death because community spread has become two steps, where the first is not fatal because it's young people. After the young people get infected at bars, workplaces, and other gatherings, then they come in contact with at-risk people, who are much more likely to die.
The shock and horror of Pearl Harbor probably had something to do with that. 9/11 probably had a similar effect but not quite as long lasting.
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