Know anyone with Coronavirus?

[Bell206]

NY is doing much better than FL, TX, AZ right now.

Depends on what you're looking at. As of today, not in death rates. Even Ohio which locked down first in March has a higher death rate than TX or FL at 28.3/100K.

NY: 79.1/100K
AZ: 46.1/100K
FL: 27.5/100K
TX:17.6/100K

 

[tspear]

Gosh. I guess I should not have listened to the “medical experts” the four times they got that wrong then. LOL.

I’d love to know how they’re determining that considering I’m literally making a game out of watching people pick their noses after touching their masks.

Everyone who walks into the ER says “I felt it land in my eye!” Lol. Oh! That’s it!

Right. There’s literally NO accurate way to study or prove that. Even 90% correct it’s statistically invalid. A 10% error on that opinion destroys it completely.

Bad probability math. Not even close to something one can make a definitive statement about.

Well, all the stuff I listened too a few months ago was all predicated on comparing COVID-19 to previous outbreaks of other viruses due to a lack of data/studies. Mostly SARS, MERS, H1N1 and Influenza; now they have studies the purpose the actual transmission answers.
I do not believe the studies are as well peer reviewed studies should be; but there have been multiple and they all came to the same fundamental conclusions.

Tim

 

[bdtaz]

Per this(https://www.azfamily.com/news/conti...irus_coverage/interactives/state_comparisons/) NY is currently at 177 deaths/100K, AZ is at 46/100K.

Both have reaches similar levels of "Identified cases/100K".

 

[denverpilot]

Short of locking every human on the planet up in their house for 3 weeks, you will not escape it.

Even that doesn’t work. The worst places are places with shared housing.

You’d need to move all those people out to refugee camps in the countryside to make that plan work there.

And then they’d catch it at the liquor store.

Or three months from now they’d need to migrate south if we’re talking right here locally.

Probably sooner. Tents get cold at night.

But wait! OMGBBQ the powers that be forgot to ramp up enough sub-zero sleeping bag production!!!! Quick! Vote for a different one who’s never slept in their car or a tent!!! LOL.

Close the parks too. That helps make sure they have to stay locked in the apartment complex with it. LOL.

Unfortunately everyone gets dealt a different opening hand and their card doesn’t come up on the turn or the river either.

That home right there that I’m looking at right now, is significantly more risky than mine. There’s four families inside it.

And even it’s orders of magnitude better than any “senior living” people warehouse.

You think they will evacuate the other three families in that thing if one person in the fourth is sent home to “self-quarantine”? Not a chance. If those families even KNOW their neighbors these days, or would tell them that someone was sick on the other side of a shared wall... I’d be quite surprised.

 

[overdrive148]

Sounds good on the errands.

As far as masks though, I’ll continue to cover my mouth if I sneeze or cough as I was taught as a young lad. To be MANDATED by our mother government to wear a filter in case I can not control my own bodily functions should also REQUIRE every human to wear diapers, just in case they **** themselves around me. I could slip in it, fall and die.

It just frightens me beyond words how fast the sheep are willing to roll over for something that we are all going to get at some point. Short of locking every human on the planet up in their house for 3 weeks, you will not escape it.

I was also taught to cover if I sneeze or cough (or even yawn, heaven forbid!). Some people weren't taught that or don't give a single crap about covering when they sneeze or cough and that's gross/not polite/spreading the disease further. People who have studied disease transmission and virology longer than I've been alive have said that breathing and talking and singing (not that I'm known for spontaneously breaking into song...) are all possible ways to spread the droplets and infect people. I don't want to infect people. I don't cover my mouth when I breathe or talk or sing, so that's where the mask comes in.

Right now, I'm reducing the spread with what I'm able to do because eventually (hopefully sometime soon) there's going to be a safe and effective vaccine and better understanding of the virus and how it actually spreads and what conditions it makes worse, etc. Once there is, and once people start to get vaccinated, then that's when I'm going to let the pedal up a bit on my mask wearing. After we get this under control (and I don't think it's under control right now or will be in the near future) then I'm going to start slowly returning to "normal". I'm not wearing a mask for the rest of my life.

I don't believe for a minute that mask wearing and social distancing is going to kill the virus out and stop everyone in the US from getting it. I DO believe, however, that we're buying precious time for the people who are vulnerable or elderly until we're able to effectively protect them (and allowing hospitals to handle the loads in the new hot spots as they pop up).

Your thoughts?

 

[tspear]

I think this is the third time I’ve answered your question. I’ll try to be even more brief:
YOU stay home. You won’t get it. I promise to not come to your house and cough, sneeze burp or fart on you.

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You are under the assumption that roughly 1/4 of the population who are generally the poorest in the country and considered "essential workers" can stay home.
Plus there are significant portions of the country where you cannot get food delivered.

As a result, no money and no food.... makes it hard to stay home.

Tim

 

[denverpilot]

Well, all the stuff I listened too a few months ago was all predicated on comparing COVID-19 to previous outbreaks of other viruses due to a lack of data/studies. Mostly SARS, MERS, H1N1 and Influenza; now they have studies the purpose the actual transmission answers.
I do not believe the studies are as well peer reviewed studies should be; but there have been multiple and they all came to the same fundamental conclusions.

Tim

And I respect that but realistically understand that their “conclusions” have mostly been following theories as yet completely improbable and unprovable.

The improbable part is that all protective measures always work together and virii do live on surfaces, etc. Whether the mask is doing anywhere close to 100% of the duty is just insanely improbable considering most people’s hygiene habits before and after the thing started.

Better hygiene actually *could* explain a significant portion of the death rate drop. But it’s unmeasurable.

Wife did a decade or so of home care nursing. The stories of the filth the *majority* of her patients lived in, was appalling for about two years. After that, just a given. Granted, infirm and suck people don’t feel motivated much to deep clean the house, or themselves, but plenty were fully ambulatory and receiving very minor care...

Humans are gross. Haha. Seriously. If all this thing did was convince a large percentage to wash their hands and their stuff for the rest of their lives, it’ll save all sorts of them from other nasties long after Covid is an asterisk in a stats page.

 

[crash7]

Right now, I'm reducing the spread with what I'm able to do because eventually (hopefully sometime soon) there's going to be a safe and effective vaccine and better understanding of the virus and how it actually spreads and what conditions it makes worse, etc. Once there is, and once people start to get vaccinated, then that's when I'm going to let the pedal up a bit on my mask wearing. After we get this under control (and I don't think it's under control right now or will be in the near future) then I'm going to start slowly returning to "normal". I'm not wearing a mask for the rest of my life.

I don't believe for a minute that mask wearing and social distancing is going to kill the virus out and stop everyone in the US from getting it. I DO believe, however, that we're buying precious time for the people who are vulnerable or elderly until we're able to effectively protect them (and allowing hospitals to handle the loads in the new hot spots as they pop up).

Your thoughts?

I’m not banking on a vaccine. It’s a virus. Can we -cure- a virus? Or would we have to take a vaccination shot every year or two to keep society afloat? I get a flu shot every year. Sometimes it works sometimes not. I believe that’s mostly due to different strains of flu vs the vaccine “they” decide to produce that year.
Has covid mutated to multiple strains? If so, we’re in the same boat as flu shots, no?

People keep waiting on this miracle vaccine, but I just don’t see it being as bulletproof as people want it to be.


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[tspear]

And I respect that but realistically understand that their “conclusions” have mostly been following theories as yet completely improbable and unprovable.

The improbable part is that all protective measures always work together and virii do live on surfaces, etc. Whether the mask is doing anywhere close to 100% of the duty is just insanely improbable considering most people’s hygiene habits before and after the thing started.

Better hygiene actually *could* explain a significant portion of the death rate drop. But it’s unmeasurable.

Wife did a decade or so of home care nursing. The stories of the filth the *majority* of her patients lived in, was appalling for about two years. After that, just a given. Granted, infirm and suck people don’t feel motivated much to deep clean the house, or themselves, but plenty were fully ambulatory and receiving very minor care...

Humans are gross. Haha. Seriously. If all this thing did was convince a large percentage to wash their hands and their stuff for the rest of their lives, it’ll save all sorts of them from other nasties long after Covid is an asterisk in a stats page.

The mask is not close to 100% effective. It does significantly reduce exposure for others, assuming I followed one of the summaries I read correctly, and this is a big assumption.
Simple cloth/surgical mask have the following effects:
1. Minimal reduction in inhalation of droplets/aerosols. This has a small reduction in viral load.
2. Significant reduction in exhalation of airborne droplets/aerosols to the surrounding air. This reduces the viral load given to others by reducing the amount of virus in the air.
3. Viral load appears to be a significant factor in how sick someone gets. But this correlation makes medical sense, but cannot be "proven" yet.

The result was the study strongly suggested that masks will not only reduce transmission, but may actually make a fundamental change in the ratio of severe cases to mild cases. This likely means that measures which focus on reducing concentrations of viral load may be the most effective mitigation schemes.

Tim

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Disingenuous attempt at best and you know it. However to play your nonsensical game, I don't drive after the bars close down.

Not really all that nonsensical. Your attitude is I should not have to change my actions just to protect you. If we're going to go with that, shouldn't it apply to all behavior that could put others in danger? And if not, why not? Why is it ok for someone to endanger the public not following recommended infection spread prevention protocols 'because they choose to leave their house' but its not ok for someone to endanger the public by driving drunk?

I'm reminded of an old joke. The punchline is we're already established what kind of girl you are, we're just haggling over the price.

 

[tspear]

I’m not banking on a vaccine. It’s a virus. Can we -cure- a virus? Or would we have to take a vaccination shot every year or two to keep society afloat? I get a flu shot every year. Sometimes it works sometimes not. I believe that’s mostly due to different strains of flu vs the vaccine “they” decide to produce that year.
Has covid mutated to multiple strains? If so, we’re in the same boat as flu shots, no?

People keep waiting on this miracle vaccine, but I just don’t see it being as bulletproof as people want it to be.


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FDA has stated publicly that they will approve any vaccine which passes 50% efficacy. A family friend who retired from the FDA says the internal guidance is likely more nuanced. e.g. If none pass 50%, than they approve the one which comes closest. If all are between 50-70% they all get approved. If any above 70%, any approved will have to be above 70%....

Tim

 

[DavidWhite]

Interesting to me that in general the same people who seem to think no one else should have a say about their bodies sing a very different tune about womens reproductive issues.

 

[overdrive148]

I’m not banking on a vaccine. It’s a virus. Can we -cure- a virus? Or would we have to take a vaccination shot every year or two to keep society afloat? I get a flu shot every year. Sometimes it works sometimes not. I believe that’s mostly due to different strains of flu vs the vaccine “they” decide to produce that year.
Has covid mutated to multiple strains? If so, we’re in the same boat as flu shots, no?

People keep waiting on this miracle vaccine, but I just don’t see it being as bulletproof as people want it to be.

I doubt the vaccine will be a 'miracle' that gets rid of the virus completely. I think one like the flu vaccine is acceptable. Better than what we have now which is ... mask wearing and social distancing. I truthfully don't like wearing the mask, but I do it anyway. From what I understand, the flu mutates a lot and that's why we have to have different vaccinations for it. Not sure how many there are floating around out there but I think they have to pick the most likely one to vaccinate against for the year and sometimes they're right or sometimes they're wrong.

I appreciate the discussion, by the way. Thanks for your point of view.

 

[crash7]

Interesting to me that in general the same people who seem to think no one else should have a say about their bodies sing a very different tune about womens reproductive issues.

That’s an interesting point to a no-win argument.

Pro-choice: Woman doesn’t want someone else (government) telling her what she can/can’t do with her body and she has no say in the matter. That’s bad.

Pro-life: Woman has an abortion, effectively making a choice for someone else who has no say in the matter.

Moral: Enforcing your will upon others is wrong.


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[crash7]

I doubt the vaccine will be a 'miracle' that gets rid of the virus completely. I think one like the flu vaccine is acceptable. Better than what we have now which is ... mask wearing and social distancing. I truthfully don't like wearing the mask, but I do it anyway. From what I understand, the flu mutates a lot and that's why we have to have different vaccinations for it. Not sure how many there are floating around out there but I think they have to pick the most likely one to vaccinate against for the year and sometimes they're right or sometimes they're wrong.

I appreciate the discussion, by the way. Thanks for your point of view.

You bet!


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[Juliet Hotel]

Riding motorcycles should be allowed.

It is. Was banned for a few weeks. As far I could tell no one really stopped. No restrictions on it now.

Going fishing should be allowed (without huge groups, I guess).

Its is. Same as bikes, was banned for a few weeks. Actually that's not true. Fishing itself was never banned and never stopped. Fishing from boats was banned for a while. Going gang busters now.

Working on the house should be allowed.

It is. I don't think building materials were ever really banned (I've bought lots of plywood and 2x4's for shop projects over the previous few months). For a while, you couldn't buy paint or garden supplies from large home centers (but could always buy from smaller retailers). Just like the others, those bans were lifted after a few weeks.

Gyms and movies theaters are pretty much the only businesses still restricted. Maybe a few others but not many.

 

[crash7]

Does life begin at conception or birth? Republicans denied the $500 child credit to expecting mothers when the Corona stimulus checks went out.

Not gonna get into abortion debate. I honestly have no stance. It’s a lose no matter what side you’re on. My point (which was missed apparently) is not to impose your will upon others.

Time for those chores...


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[Matthew Rogers]

Depends on what you're looking at. As of today, not in death rates. Even Ohio which locked down first in March has a higher death rate than TX or FL at 28.3/100K.

NY: 79.1/100K
AZ: 46.1/100K
FL: 27.5/100K
TX:17.6/100K

Yeah, but we are almost done with the first wave. Down to single digit deaths per day. The other states are rapidly rising. You can’t compare the two by total numbers until the other states have finished their current wave of infections.