Is it smart to buy a plane right now?

pilotmichael

pilotmichael

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PilotMichael
With the sweeping regulatory changes this past year (Part 23 rewrite, BasicMed, who knows what's coming from Trump), is it smart to purchase an aircraft right now? Or should one wait and see how this all shakes out? On the one hand, the part 23 changes could result in cheaper, lower cost, and better designs - possibly driving overall prices down in both the new and used markets. But BasicMed could result in an influx of new and older pilots therefore driving demand up. They always say "time in the market beats timing the market" when it comes to finance at least. Perhaps that's applicable to the aviation market too. But in this case, these once in a generation or two changes give me pause as to whether I should be buying right now in the new OR used aircraft market.

I want a plane now but part of me wants to wait and see what comes of all this.
 
I really don't see much change in the big picture of supply/demand for used aircraft.

Yeah, there might be more pilots ready to go via Basic Med. But the 2020 ADSB mandate might bring a few more aircraft to market as their current owners choose to not spend the money for the equipment.

And don't forget to factor in something to account for lost opportunity for yourself, both from the enjoyment of flying your aircraft to missing out on the perfect airplane for you that comes and goes while you're waiting.

This is a decision you gotta make for yourself.
 
If you buy a new plane you will always loose money when it is time to sell. Buy a used plane right and you can always make money on it.
Buy now.... If you keep on waiting you may never have a plane.
 
Like having kids..... Is there ever really a "good time"?

You can wait as long as you want, but really, if you can afford it, do it. Waiting for rainbows and unicorns is not what I'd call a strategic move. 2020 isn't going to yield much. Those who refuse to buy ADSB will just turn off their transponders, avoid airspace, Or turn circles in the pattern just like they do now.
 
Buying a plane is never smart. Intellectually, it's a complete waste of money for 99% of GA owners. I didn't buy a plane because it was a smart thing to do. But it's still one of the best decisions I've made in a couple decades.
 
pilotmichael said:
With the sweeping regulatory changes this past year (Part 23 rewrite, BasicMed, who knows what's coming from Trump), is it smart to purchase an aircraft right now? Or should one wait and see how this all shakes out? On the one hand, the part 23 changes could result in cheaper, lower cost, and better designs - possibly driving overall prices down in both the new and used markets. But BasicMed could result in an influx of new and older pilots therefore driving demand up. They always say "time in the market beats timing the market" when it comes to finance at least. Perhaps that's applicable to the aviation market too. But in this case, these once in a generation or two changes give me pause as to whether I should be buying right now in the new OR used aircraft market.

I want a plane now but part of me wants to wait and see what comes of all this.
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You will be waiting a long time and the new planes that might be produced still will not be affordable by most peoples standards. An RV10 with little/no certification costs still cost a minimum of $150K to build plus years of your labor. Certification costs might be less but there is still liability issues and the lack of economies of scale. And would they be better? The laws of aerodynamics does not change. A 1970 PA-24-260C is only marginally slower than a Cirrus SR22 and carries way more load.
 
If you are ready to buy a plane and can afford it go ahead and buy one.
 
pilotmichael said:
With the sweeping regulatory changes this past year (Part 23 rewrite, BasicMed, who knows what's coming from Trump), is it smart to purchase an aircraft right now? Or should one wait and see how this all shakes out? On the one hand, the part 23 changes could result in cheaper, lower cost, and better designs - possibly driving overall prices down in both the new and used markets. But BasicMed could result in an influx of new and older pilots therefore driving demand up. They always say "time in the market beats timing the market" when it comes to finance at least. Perhaps that's applicable to the aviation market too. But in this case, these once in a generation or two changes give me pause as to whether I should be buying right now in the new OR used aircraft market.

I want a plane now but part of me wants to wait and see what comes of all this.
Click to expand...

You get half an up vote for the question, and half an up vote for your avatar.
 
Salty said:
Buying a plane is never smart. Intellectually, it's a complete waste of money for 99% of GA owners. I didn't buy a plane because it was a smart thing to do. But it's still one of the best decisions I've made in a couple decades.
Click to expand...

Boats, Harley's, watches, vacation homes too....... ****ing money away, but sure has hell enjoy doing it.
 
pilotmichael said:
With the sweeping regulatory changes this past year (Part 23 rewrite, BasicMed, who knows what's coming from Trump), is it smart to purchase an aircraft right now? Or should one wait and see how this all shakes out? On the one hand, the part 23 changes could result in cheaper, lower cost, and better designs - possibly driving overall prices down in both the new and used markets. But BasicMed could result in an influx of new and older pilots therefore driving demand up. They always say "time in the market beats timing the market" when it comes to finance at least. Perhaps that's applicable to the aviation market too. But in this case, these once in a generation or two changes give me pause as to whether I should be buying right now in the new OR used aircraft market.

I want a plane now but part of me wants to wait and see what comes of all this.
Click to expand...

Nobody ANYWHERE has a crystal ball. It depends on what your mission is. Are you planning to buy and then re-sell, hold for the long term...etc
 
I vote with the group that says if you keep waiting, you may miss your opportunity totally. Then again, I already own so am probably biased. :)
 
Salty said:
Buying a plane is never smart. Intellectually, it's a complete waste of money for 99% of GA owners. I didn't buy a plane because it was a smart thing to do. But it's still one of the best decisions I've made in a couple decades.
Click to expand...

My opinion is buying a plane is the smartest thing you can put money in. Maybe I just buy the right airplanes but to me it is a fun savings account that gains value each year. You have to buy something kind of unique though. A boring old 172 just like 1,000,000 others isn't going to make you money when you want to sell it.
 
to the original poster..really? You are trying to rationalize something that can't be rationalized. Do you want to fly, when you want to? Then do it. Everything else is fluff.
 
My opinion is to evaluate your needs and see if building one would be a better option than buying used.
 
pigpenracing said:
My opinion is buying a plane is the smartest thing you can put money in. Maybe I just buy the right airplanes but to me it is a fun savings account that gains value each year. You have to buy something kind of unique though. A boring old 172 just like 1,000,000 others isn't going to make you money when you want to sell it.
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Hey, your wife isn't reading this, is she?
 
As an owner my only advice: if you do get a plane, do yourself a favor and NEVER keep track of total expenses.

A guy I work with is considering a boat (another "never-smart" purchase), and he asked me what my yearly aircraft expenses are....I just laughed.
 
If you are that worried about the future, the right time will never come.

I waited a long time to buy my first house. Now I'll never go back to how I use to live.
 
I think I might have been misunderstood or misspoke. I'm not necessarily concerned about losing money, I'm prepared for that as it is aviation we're talking about here after all. With the regulatory changes, rapid innovation in cockpit technology, and electric/alternative power plants coming, I think the period coming up will be unlike anything we've seen in 40+ years. Or not, who knows. It seems like the general consensus is you can't just keep waiting because something new might come along, if that's your attitude you'll never make a move and you'll die a sad old man wishing you'd made better decisions. I suppose my real issue is I'm stuck trying to find the perfect plane for my mission and I figure if I just keep waiting, that perfect plane might come along, or I'm afraid it will right after I finally make a move. Alright, that's enough, thanks for letting me vent.
 
I would like to know the actual real # of pilots who now can fly because of Basic Med. Not how many aren't going to get a 3rd class anymore, I mean how many stopped flying and now will start back up.
 
pilotmichael said:
I think I might have been misunderstood or misspoke. I'm not necessarily concerned about losing money, I'm prepared for that as it is aviation we're talking about here after all. With the regulatory changes, rapid innovation in cockpit technology, and electric/alternative power plants coming, I think the period coming up will be unlike anything we've seen in 40+ years. Or not, who knows. It seems like the general consensus is you can't just keep waiting because something new might come along, if that's your attitude you'll never make a move and you'll die a sad old man wishing you'd made better decisions. I suppose my real issue is I'm stuck trying to find the perfect plane for my mission and I figure if I just keep waiting, that perfect plane might come along, or I'm afraid it will right after I finally make a move. Alright, that's enough, thanks for letting me vent.
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You're talking years by the time all these new Part 23 changes are felt or at least become mainstream. There has to be an aircraft out there right now that meets your mission parameters. If it doesn't, it won't take much work to get it there.

While the new market is way out of reach for most of us, I can't think of a better time in the last 20 years to buy. Especially for twins. Personally I'm waiting on the Raptor aircraft...I think I'll be waiting for some time though.
 
Ok, that makes sense to me. You are worried that you might buy something close to want you want then later find what you want at the price you like. I think in some way we all have that worry.

I am about to buy a house that covers what I want, but it is not what I am really looking for.....:loco::loco::lol::lol:
 
New plane, old plane... you're losing money on depreciation or maintenance or both... just buy one if you want one and figure out the financials on your own.
 
If the Part 23 re-write ever comes to fruition, it may create a few higher-value markets. Sort of akin to classic/muscle cars, where all original examples frequently (read: certified aircraft) go for a premium above resto-modded vehicles (certified aircraft with part 23-rewrite parts). You might end up with a premium market for aircraft which are still using only certified parts. So, in that case, buying a certified aircraft now might be a better idea in terms of resale. However, waiting until the re-write has some time to take effect, may make the "resto-modded" aircraft cheaper to purchase in comparison. In any case, I'm sure the overall difference would be meaningless in the long run, so if you want to buy an aircraft, do it. Saving money is rarely the case it seems.
 
My Cherokee 180 was quite possibly the biggest expenditure I've ever had, aside from my home. I lost money on it, but man I miss it.

Rentals suck and/or are often unreliable, unavailable or "other". I'm always looking for the next purchase (even when I can't afford it heh..).

I'd love to get my hands on a VFR 150/Grumman/etc...but I gotta get a few bills paid off first before I make the plunge (again).

Buy used, for the love of god...A new Cessna 172 is probably $350K? Go with something a couple decades old and you can get something REALLY good for a quarter of that price, if not less.
 
Do you want a airplane?

Can you afford to fly the airplane?

Can you spend the time to maintain the airplane?

Can you negotiate a good deal?


If the answers are yes, there you have it.


As far as the sky falling, it's always falling, and yet here we are all....still
 
pigpenracing said:
My opinion is buying a plane is the smartest thing you can put money in. Maybe I just buy the right airplanes but to me it is a fun savings account that gains value each year. You have to buy something kind of unique though. A boring old 172 just like 1,000,000 others isn't going to make you money when you want to sell it.
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I'm glad you are an innate salesman :). Every time I buy something, when I get ready to sell, I figure it's not worth much and usually wind up taking a loss. Its probably some kind of complex :).
 
somorris said:
I'm glad you are an innate salesman :). Every time I buy something, when I get ready to sell, I figure it's not worth much and usually wind up taking a loss. Its probably some kind of complex :).
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Like he said though, gotta get the right plane, get a even half way decent deal on a PA18 and you'll probably make out ok
 
I will chime in with an opinion. For me aviation was a passion got my rating in late 80's but realized I couldn't afford to eat and fly, then realized that I didn't want to try to go the commercial route and I would fly again - when/if I could afford to. That gave me a 20+ year break from flying.

4 or 5 years ago - someone and I talked about flying - he encouraged me to check it out again that things were pretty good. I did check things out and found I could afford to fly again!

So I get a great instructor, am renting in a club and getting current. I head to the flight line to pre-flight a plane for a night flight with my instructor. I pre-flight 4 planes - none of which are airworthy - bulbs out, MX issue, W&B not accurate etc... So I started thinking, this is my life up there and they are not maintaining the planes - what's my life worth? So I started shopping. I had a budget and found that I could afford the MX, the hangar (we get way too much hail in CO), and AV gas - if I am conservative in my flight time I can do this. (My goal is 100 hours a year.)

So when I was trying to decide if this was the right thing to do, something you didn't mention that I took into concern was my health. I am fine today and have no known issues. However, what would happen if something happened and I couldn't get a medical? Then I would have those years that I could have flown but, didn't while I waited for something. I chose to fly now with the risks but, knowing if I lose my ability to fly tomorrow - I can say that I have amazing memories from the last 3 years with my plane.

So, if your coins are right and you can afford to - and you have the passion to commit to continued MX and training - then do it. Our tomorrows are never guaranteed.

Dean
 
codeeno said:
... I am fine today and have no known issues. However, what would happen if something happened and I couldn't get a medical?...
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It's amazing all the people who think like this, what if the more likely thing occurs, which is nothing happens and you don't do the things you want to do because of what ifs.

Eat somewhat right, don't be fat, and that takes care of many health problems.
 
Nothing in the regulatory or technical pipeline is going to fundamentally change what is available, how it performs or what planes cost. Define your mission profile and see whether you can find a plane that meets it for a price your can afford. If you can, then buy it. If you can't, then keep renting, or get out of flying. I've been flying for over 40 years and although some interesting new machines have become available, they didn't fundamentally change what you can do with a GA airplane, or what it costs to own one with a particular set of capabilities. I've had several different mission desires over the years, so I've bought and sold planes that met those needs as they changed. I've had a fast cross country plane (a Mooney), an aerobatic plane (a Pitts S2A), a family hauler (a Cessna 182) and now I fly a backcountry STOL plane (a Maule). Yes you can buy new planes that are faster than an old Mooney, but not appreciably faster point to point for the kinds of trips I was making. Yes, you can buy aerobatic monoplanes that can outperform the Pitts I had, but they wouldn't have increased my fun quotient for the low level aerobatics I was doing. Yes, there are planes that will haul more than a 182, but payload per dollar is still pretty high with that old workhorse. And yes, there are more capable backcountry aircraft than my Maule now, but my Maule takes me everyplace I have an interest in going and it does it affordably and comfortably. Nothing in the pipeline will fundamentally change what is available now or the price point for a given capability. The number of options will slightly increase, but not by much because there isn't a big enough pool of pilots to invest in radical new capabilities. So, if you have a mission need that isn't met by available rental aircraft, you won't be disappointed by buying now. You also have the opportunity to enjoy a plane longer if you buy it sooner.
 
tawood said:
As an owner my only advice: if you do get a plane, do yourself a favor and NEVER keep track of total expenses.

A guy I work with is considering a boat (another "never-smart" purchase), and he asked me what my yearly aircraft expenses are....I just laughed.
Click to expand...

I agree completely. I have people ask me all the time what it costs to fly. I never give a full answer. The standard "it's an expensive hobby" usually suffices if it's just someone curious. If they have an interest in flying I'll give them a decent idea.

But yeah, keeping a journal of expenses is not something I do!

People that own nice vehicles don't understand. When they want to know how much it costs to fly they want to know how much the plane cost to buy. Lol. As if that was the bulk of the expense.
 
I've owned my C175b for 17 years now. I never keep records of what it costs. I do 90% of the maintenance myself under the guidance of my IA. Having my plane available when I want it, the way I last left it, is priceless.
I say go for it, your only getting older.
Dave
 
pigpenracing said:
What do you mean by this? My wife is the coolest woman in the world. She don't care what I buy. We have seperate bank accounts. She works and buys anything she wants and I do the same.
I'm not pu**y whipped like most of you :)
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+1 :D
 
Caramon13 said:
Buy used, for the love of god...A new Cessna 172 is probably $350K? Go with something a couple decades old and you can get something REALLY good for a quarter of that price, if not less.
Click to expand...

And, the same basic aircraft for 90% less.
 
Much of your answer lies in your life outside of aviation. Do you have a family that depends on you? If so, do you have the money to be an aircraft owner without depriving your family of their needs and without going in debt?

If you have the necessary extra funds, then Define your mission, select your plane, find a nice example, be smart about the purchase and buy it.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Much of your answer lies in your life outside of aviation. Do you have a family that depends on you? If so, do you have the money to be an aircraft owner without depriving your family of their needs and without going in debt?

If you have the necessary extra funds, then Define your mission, select your plane, find a nice example, be smart about the purchase and buy it.
Click to expand...


Very valid points.
 
MBDiagMan said:
Much of your answer lies in your life outside of aviation. Do you have a family that depends on you? If so, do you have the money to be an aircraft owner without depriving your family of their needs and without going in debt?

If you have the necessary extra funds, then Define your mission, select your plane, find a nice example, be smart about the purchase and buy it.
Click to expand...

I say let em fend for themselves. Builds character.

I'm (sorta) joking. Guess it depends on how you define "needs".

My kids are fed and clothed with a roof over their head. I've provided each (they are 16 & 18) with:
A cheap car
$40k each in an educational account (which will just barely pay for a degree at one of our three local well-reviewed 4-year colleges)
Health care

That's it. They both have jobs to pay for car repairs / insurance, cell phones, and anything else. Looks like my daughter will be getting much more in scholarship money so she may have more choices than my son, but that's on them.

Every remaining cent goes to flying. Lol
 
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