Is it me or Cessna 182s just went up by $30-50K in the last 1-2 months?

I’m hoping to sell my 182-S in approximately 6-8 months and get a 206-H. Although I’ll likely be able to sell my plane for initial purchase price, maaaaaybe a little more (35K in upgrades) but doubtful, 206-H models are also commanding high prices. This will make it a wash for me.
 
Funny how you finds the lists prices and never see the selling prices.
 
Airplane apples to apples: prices are up 15% +++ depending on what you are looking for.
 
One good reason for uptick in prices on the 182 is it’s a fixed gear airplane with relatively good speed with a good payload. The insurance companies don’t mind insuring old guys in them.
 
Oh....this is just the last of the surge. Prices will be back down in a few months....after the election.
 
I don’t think the sell price is actually hitting where the asking price is. I could be wrong but it’s not what I’ve been seeing the last 4 months or so.
 
I'm in the process of trying to buy a 182, looking for a N, P, or Q model. I had one 182P at a good price, had signed contract, put it into pre buy, but turned out that the past maintenance was "economy". That is, cost for addressing discrepancies was significant enough seller wasn't going to fix them and I voided the contract. (Which is why you do prebuy inspection).

At least in my N of 1, (hah, great word play there), a good/great price means you pay more for fixing things vs maybe finding a plane that will in good condition and pay much less on first annual, but have to pay more to buy it.

And I'm finding that buying this 182 is just going to cost more that I had in my mind, life is short, just endure the pain of writing the check and go enjoy retirement flying the wife around. I'd rather be flying now by just finding a plane now vs waiting another year or so to maybe get a better deal that in reality might cost more. It will go a long way to hitting the life goal of leaving no money to the adult children for them to worry about. I'm kind of humble and unselfish that way.
 
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When I was looking in late 2022, the advertised 182’s that were under 200K needed a lot of deferred maintenance performed to be acceptable or had original avionics. I was looking ‘turn key’ R or S model (wanted a 28v plane) with WAAS and an AP. I ended up with an S model paying $320K. I wanted one quickly although I knew if I was patient I might be able to locate an ‘off market’ unit and save a little $$. I figured I would take a little bath when it comes time to sell next year but surprisingly enough, if the prices hold, I might be able to sell it for near what I paid for it, upgrades notwithstanding.

@WDD Your logic is exactly what I employed in my search. At 60 years of age and just starting PP training I was willing to take one for the team to be able to train in the plane I would use for my IR and experience building until I knew what plane would best suit my long term goals. My retirement finance goals were met and I set a top price of $350K for a plane. The broker said he could find a solid 28v 182 for much less. The few we examined the logs on would have required too much required maintenance/upgrades to be acceptable. I told my broker, after a few months of searching his sources, to take my price cap seriously and that I greatly value getting a more expensive, but turn key, plane now vs waiting for that cherry deal. He hated to see me spend that much at the time but a year later he admitted that, based on what he saw the market do in the last year, it was a fair deal.
 
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I just looked at the S models on Controller. I could probably fire sale mine, at this time, and get over $300K. On the surface that looks great, but the same price inflation is also applicable to the 206H model that I plan on transitioning to. :rolleyes:
 
Ed Haywood said:
182 is a heck of a good plane. Price reflects the fact that there is a finite, shrinking number of aircraft in the GA fleet with similar capabilities.
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Yeah - I think you’re right
 
GeorgeC said:
@ArrowFlyer86
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I've tried to track the data per-series asking prices since October of last year. Here's a few different cuts of 182 data.
The x-axis is being annoying and labeling dates kind of randomly rather than showing logical intervals (sorry), but this gives you an idea of pricing change from Oct '23 to now.

Median 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
1716830346300.png

Average 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
1716830380793.png

Median 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
1716830555530.png

Average 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
1716830499403.png
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
I've tried to track the data per-series asking prices since October of last year. Here's a few different cuts of 182 data.
The x-axis is being annoying and labeling dates kind of randomly rather than showing logical intervals (sorry), but this gives you an idea of pricing change from Oct '23 to now.

Median 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
View attachment 129209

Average 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
View attachment 129210

Median 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
View attachment 129212

Average 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
View attachment 129211
Click to expand...
Interesting data. Thank you. I wonder how much bias there is in terms of model years, avionics, and engine time in these data. Not sure if the sample size is large enough to match these major factors in pricing.
 
MountainDude said:
Interesting data. Thank you. I wonder how much bias there is in terms of model years, avionics, and engine time in these data. Not sure if the sample size is large enough to match these major factors in pricing.
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The data I'm tracking looks at all the listed 182s for sale. So the total N should be fairly representative of the market.
The 182 market is one of the bigger series (second only to SR22s) and usually stays within 110-140 aircraft listed. If you add in turbo it increases by 20-35 aircraft; I track the turbo 182s separately because of the nearly 100k median/avg price difference btw the two.

In terms of model years, here's a relevant chart for current pricing.
1716836200746.png

But you're right there's no getting around the fact that planes aren't fungible. If you want a true valuation you need to consider years, TTAF, TMOH, avionics stack, is it on floats, cosmetics, etc... This data can't capture that.
But it can at least help identify where the "middle of the pack" is and see how that avg/median trends over time.
 
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Not related to the 182s, but in the space I've been looking in the past 6 months, to include about half a dozen cash offers so far, the airplanes I know have sold, are selling for about 30K-50K less than the airplanes being listed that don't move. That's how clown unserious the latter sellers are, and I say that as the sucessful seller of a airworthiness-literal boat anchor in 2023 mind you.

I sent a guy a full asking offer within 48 hours of his listing being up two months ago I think it was, and I was already #3 in the queue, the airplane was sold within the week. The others on the listing going for 120K+ seldom move, then they disappear and show up again months later. So I remain unmoved by the relevance of "asking prices" in present circumstances.

I understand 60 year olds sitting out a hobby for their entire minor children's lives not wanting to wait any longer, lord bless. But the economic markers of a significant consumer slowdown are finally here; only being delayed by election year meddling. Thankfully, as someone under 50, I got time, even as I lament my current horrid weekly commute. It's only been 6 months sans airplane anyways, though I fear the longer I get used to the extra 10-30K/yr in savings, I may end up taking up video gaming, expand the in-home gym, and travel internationally with the wife more lol.

Lastly to be fair, I'm also being super picky/price-elastic. On the RV-4 space they're already available below my budget (though those miata-RVs are not usually /A or /G equipped, which I need for my commute), even outside of pocket listings. I just don't want to own a taildragger at any price, otherwise I'd already be back in.
TETO.
 
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And here I sold my RV-8 very quickly. I had been seriously considering selling and was finally getting close to listing it, but was dragging my feet. A gentleman posted to a Facebook group that he was looking for one, so I contacted him immediately and offered it up. 35 days later he flew the plane to its new home. The price I offered it at was optimistic on my part, but the worst that can happen is it gets negotiated down, which is what happened. We both got a fair and reasonable deal, and what it ultimately would have sold for had it been listed on the usual sites.

I suspect that had I waited, put it on T-A-P and whatnot at an emotionally derived price based on how I felt about the plane instead of how the market feels, it would be there for a long time.
 
hindsight2020 said:
It's only been 6 months sans airplane anyways, though I fear the longer I get used to the extra 10-30K/yr in savings, I may end up taking up video gaming, expand the in-home gym, and travel internationally with the wife more lol.
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Try cocaine. It’s cheaper than airplanes and easier to quit.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
I've tried to track the data per-series asking prices since October of last year. Here's a few different cuts of 182 data.
The x-axis is being annoying and labeling dates kind of randomly rather than showing logical intervals (sorry), but this gives you an idea of pricing change from Oct '23 to now.

Median 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
View attachment 129209

Average 182 prices (non turbo / all model years available):
View attachment 129210

Median 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
View attachment 129212

Average 182 prices (non turbo / PRE 1990 model years):
View attachment 129211
Click to expand...


Less variation than I expected. What’s sigma?
 
Half Fast said:
Less variation than I expected. What’s sigma?
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For 182s...
stdev full universe: $123k
stdev pre-1990 models only: $59k

The tightest variation (as % of total price) are SR22s... Makes sense given their newer age and comparative uniformity.
1716850876558.png
 
robin ardoin said:
Yea...but worries about savings are long gone by the time that point is reached. :)
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And then when the savings are gone, the hookers leave.

Much like with an airplane, you still end up lonely, strung out, and broke, but at least you don’t need a class 3 medical to get started.
 
IMG_1140.jpeg


Step two: When you get so high you could duck hunt with a rake, post your plane on TAP with crappy pics, little information, and a price to match your current state of mind.
 
I expect my 1959 182 to go up in value soon. It will qualify as Light Sport under MOSAIC. Any 182 newer than a 182D won't qualify though based on stall speed.

YES
Cessna 120
Cessna 140
Cessna 150 (all models including Aerobat)
Cessna 152 (all models including Aerobat)
Cessna 162
Cessna 170 (all models)
Cessna 172 (all models EXCEPT IO-360 powered models T-41B, R172K, FR172)
Cessna 175 (All 175s, including P172D models)
Cessna 182 (182 through 182D)

NO
Cessna 172RG
Cessna 172 IO-360 variants (R172K, FR172, T-41B)
Cessna 177 (all models)
Cessna 180
Cessna 182 (182E and later models)
Cessna T182
Cessna R182
Cessna TR182
Cessna 185
Cessna 190
Cessna 205 and above
 
^^^^^Excellent article. Hits it right on the nose regarding the genesis of the controlled opposition by GAMA.


Back to MOSAIC: Vaporware, and moot anyways. [prospective] Owners of standard AWC spam cans wanting to enjoy the LSA largesse are going to be disappointed. I understand the medical-inflection-point crowd, but they're a minority, and frankly a relatively louder one on the internet than their numbers in real life justify.

This is still about the price point of capital and maintenance costs/labor/allowances in a hobby that's tracking like an ICBM with inflation, within a K-curve society that's ladder-pulling the bottom end of any recreational activity (again, this echo chamber not being all that affected/represented by it).

BL, until and unless they allow LSRM on those existing spam cans, nothing of import will change on the participation metrics. To that point, there is zero discussion/appetite about that allowance in MOSAIC, which is why I've called it DOA from the jump.

The closing sentence of that article couldn't have encapsulated it better.
 
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