Is General Aviation Dying in the USA?

Just wanted to really stir up some **** here...

Yesterday when I ended up stuck somewhere and met up with an Aviation business owner and an AOPA reporter, they both speculated that when the 3rd class medical requirement is removed a lot of old-timers and people others who werent flying because of the requirement will come back, and the value of smaller airplanes like 172s will go up significantly.

I'm going to grab some popcorn
 
gitmo234 said:
Just wanted to really stir up some **** here...

Yesterday when I ended up stuck somewhere and met up with an Aviation business owner and an AOPA reporter, they both speculated that when the 3rd class medical requirement is removed a lot of old-timers and people others who werent flying because of the requirement will come back, and the value of smaller airplanes like 172s will go up significantly.

I'm going to grab some popcorn
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IF the third class requirement is removed, and IF the Pt 23 revision with Experimental Non Commercial Catagory make it to the realm of reality, then we will see an uptick. One of the two will have very little effect, and neither is anything but hot air at the moment.
 
gitmo234 said:
Just wanted to really stir up some **** here...

Yesterday when I ended up stuck somewhere and met up with an Aviation business owner and an AOPA reporter, they both speculated that when the 3rd class medical requirement is removed a lot of old-timers and people others who werent flying because of the requirement will come back, and the value of smaller airplanes like 172s will go up significantly.

I'm going to grab some popcorn
Click to expand...
AOPA has a vested interest in promoting the falsehood that GA is healthy and can only get better if...
Let's assume the 3rd class medical goes the way of the dodo bird, that doesn't change the cost factor that most here agree is the driving force to the downward spiral.
 
Doggtyred said:
DISAGREE VEHEMENTLY about spins and steep turns.

More people got killed by spin training(solo and dual) than by spins accidentally.
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Ware did you come up with that. This kind of information is part of the problem people not knowing what they are talking about.
 
Henning said:
Not $100 an hour worth of fun, no.
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Really? I can't think of anything I would rather blow $100 on.

- Food? Makes me fat.
- Drink? Makes me hung over.
- Travel? That's what flying IS.
- Material things? I've got all I need.

That leaves hookers and blow, and I'm past that stage of life...
;)
 
kayoh190 said:
One can never be too old for hookers and blow.
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:yeahthat:

Really, the big competition that airplanes have for that amount of money is boats and RVs, and for most people/families, they provide more bang for the buck in the fun department because they provide a social aspect.
 
Henning said:
:yeahthat:

Really, the big competition that airplanes have for that amount of money is boats and RVs, and for most people/families, they provide more bang for the buck in the fun department because they provide a social aspect.
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Compared to a lot of entertainment though, I'm surprised sometimes that I can fly a freaking plane around for a hour for only $100 when the funpark down the road wants $20 to spend five minutes bouncing on a trampoline or $15 to drive a go-kart for ten minutes. I can give myself and two others a tour of the Grand Canyon for a few hundred bucks or I can pay someone $250 a ticket to get into a cattle herder and peer out a porthole to see it.

Heck, you can't rent a jet-ski for 30 minutes for less then $60 in most beach towns.

Once you've got the certificate, assuming you actually enjoy flying, there's some good entertainment per dollar ratio if you fly a few times a month and have a good rental deal. The key is having access to the right plane in the right place.
 
pilot_dude said:
AOPA has a vested interest in promoting the falsehood that GA is healthy and can only get better if...
Let's assume the 3rd class medical goes the way of the dodo bird, that doesn't change the cost factor that most here agree is the driving force to the downward spiral.
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Not so fast there professor...Part 23 re-write does have a potential to create downward pressure on the operating cost of certified spam cans.

It's not just the allowance to install non-TSO avionics on it, it's no kidding being allowed to take that airplane out of its TCDS and maintain and operate it outside the limitations of said TCDS. In other words, you turn your Piper Arrow into a de facto exAB. That has dramatic consequences on the cost arena; modifications, discretionary freedom on the maintenance arena (recurring ADs most notably).....all of which saves me money.

Sure, to get it back to normal category, one would have to retrofit back to its TCDS-manadated condition, but nobody is putting the genie back in the bottle once they're crossed that line. The whole point is to have a 4-seater experimental for less than the cost of a damn house (RV-10 I'm talking to you...) with a proven build quality. And yes, for those enamored with stupid TV screens, they can have all the Dynons and Garmin Gx's they want for experimental money.

Of course, the FAA went and scoffed at Congress by delaying the implementation to 2017 even after Congress told them to have it implemented by the end of this year. So it's still vaporware at this point.
 
denverpilot said:
Just keep taking people up who show interest and the dream won't die.
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Incredibly, here in my neck of the woods, no one shows any interest. When I invite neighbors for an intro flight, they look at me like I'm a Democrat or a child molester. :confused::dunno:
 
hindsight2020 said:
Not so fast there professor...Part 23 re-write does have a potential to create downward pressure on the operating cost of certified spam cans.

It's not just the allowance to install non-TSO avionics on it, it's no kidding being allowed to take that airplane out of its TCDS and maintain and operate it outside the limitations of said TCDS. In other words, you turn your Piper Arrow into a de facto exAB. That has dramatic consequences on the cost arena; modifications, discretionary freedom on the maintenance arena (recurring ADs most notably).....all of which saves me money.

Sure, to get it back to normal category, one would have to retrofit back to its TCDS-manadated condition, but nobody is putting the genie back in the bottle once they're crossed that line. The whole point is to have a 4-seater experimental for less than the cost of a damn house (RV-10 I'm talking to you...) with a proven build quality. And yes, for those enamored with stupid TV screens, they can have all the Dynons and Garmin Gx's they want for experimental money.

Of course, the FAA went and scoffed at Congress by delaying the implementation to 2017 even after Congress told them to have it implemented by the end of this year. So it's still vaporware at this point.
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At this point, both Class III and Pt 23 rewrites are nothing but hot air blowing in the breeze with no real political support, and will see resistance from the majority of the constituency who believe GA provides an unnecessary hazard as it is.
 
N5922S said:
Incredibly, here in my neck of the woods, no one shows any interest. When I invite neighbors for an intro flight, they look at me like I'm a Democrat or a child molester. :confused::dunno:
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I've noticed the same. Before I started to learn to fly I would have loved to have known anyone with an airplane and go flying. I would have gone flying anytime. Never did.

Now that I can fly others around I almost couldn't pay people to show interest. Some will show interest then just flake. Sad thing is that I really enjoy taking people up on their first flight and seeing the reaction and how much they like it.
 
Bonchie said:
Compared to a lot of entertainment though, I'm surprised sometimes that I can fly a freaking plane around for a hour for only $100 when the funpark down the road wants $20 to spend five minutes bouncing on a trampoline or $15 to drive a go-kart for ten minutes. I can give myself and two others a tour of the Grand Canyon for a few hundred bucks or I can pay someone $250 a ticket to get into a cattle herder and peer out a porthole to see it.

Heck, you can't rent a jet-ski for 30 minutes for less then $60 in most beach towns.

Once you've got the certificate, assuming you actually enjoy flying, there's some good entertainment per dollar ratio if you fly a few times a month and have a good rental deal. The key is having access to the right plane in the right place.
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On this island, right now, they are getting $200 a day...for a rental GOLF CART.

No, really!

For that, I could fly you to Galveston...and back. It's insane.

Flying, when compared to that, is pretty reasonable.
 
Jay Honeck said:
On this island, right now, they are getting $200 a day...for a rental GOLF CART.



No, really!



For that, I could fly you to Galveston...and back. It's insane.



Flying, when compared to that, is pretty reasonable.
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If you have the space, you should buy a few. It sounds like you would be in the green in less than a month.
 
John221us said:
If you have the space, you should buy a few. It sounds like you would be in the green in less than a month.
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Well, I've looked at it, and decided against it, because...

1. Golf carts* are stupid expensive. Like, $10,000.00. For that same price, I bought my daughter a used, nice, air conditioned Toyota.

2. Tourists are careless/stupid. We routinely see tourists taking rental golf carts into the ocean waves, or flying them over dunes. The lifespan of a rental golf cart is brief, unless you're good at working on them.

No, we've got friends in the cart rental business. They're good at it -- and they're ALWAYS working on them.

* - Jacked up, beach ready carts.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Well, I've looked at it, and decided against it, because...



1. Golf carts* are stupid expensive. Like, $10,000.00. For that same price, I bought my daughter a used, nice, air conditioned Toyota.



2. Tourists are careless/stupid. We routinely see tourists taking rental golf carts into the ocean waves, or flying them over dunes. The lifespan of a rental golf cart is brief, unless you're good at working on them.



No, we've got friends in the cart rental business. They're good at it -- and they're ALWAYS working on them.



* - Jacked up, beach ready carts.
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I was thinking buy some used ones, but yeah, you'll have to work on them.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Well, I've looked at it, and decided against it, because...

1. Golf carts* are stupid expensive. Like, $10,000.00. For that same price, I bought my daughter a used, nice, air conditioned Toyota.

2. Tourists are careless/stupid. We routinely see tourists taking rental golf carts into the ocean waves, or flying them over dunes. The lifespan of a rental golf cart is brief, unless you're good at working on them.

No, we've got friends in the cart rental business. They're good at it -- and they're ALWAYS working on them.

* - Jacked up, beach ready carts.
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just have the renters leave a security deposit (borrowing from "Clear and Present Danger") of $10,000.
 
Henning said:
:yeahthat:

Really, the big competition that airplanes have for that amount of money is boats and RVs, and for most people/families, they provide more bang for the buck in the fun department because they provide a social aspect.
Click to expand...

Yea, but in most parts of the USA, especially where I live, its is only warm enough 4 or 5 months of the year to be able to enjoy a boat.....and even during that time span, they are even more at the mercy of weather than flying a piston single.

GA on the other hand can be used when its 20 below in Alaska in the winter, and when its over 100 in Arizona in the summer.
 
beestforwardspeed said:
Yea, but in most parts of the USA, especially where I live, its is only warm enough 4 or 5 months of the year to be able to enjoy a boat.....and even during that time span, they are even more at the mercy of weather than flying a piston single.

GA on the other hand can be used when its 20 below in Alaska in the winter, and when its over 100 in Arizona in the summer.
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Ok, then why ar the RV and Boat markets just fine and airplanes sucking wind?:dunno: We have now heard airplanes are cheap fun, and more useful in this thread, why does the public not agree?
 
beestforwardspeed said:
Yea, but in most parts of the USA, especially where I live, its is only warm enough 4 or 5 months of the year to be able to enjoy a boat.....and even during that time span, they are even more at the mercy of weather than flying a piston single.

GA on the other hand can be used when its 20 below in Alaska in the winter, and when its over 100 in Arizona in the summer.
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Boats don't work in cold weather? News to me. :lol:
 
Henning said:
Ok, then why ar the RV and Boat markets just fine and airplanes sucking wind?:dunno: We have now heard airplanes are cheap fun, and more useful in this thread, why does the public not agree?
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??, 60ish hours of training(not including knowledge/ground/reading/books), a medical.

I have to say I suffered sticker shock when I rented my first hour! Yikes. I can play a season of ice hockey for 2 hours in the air. And I thought ice hockey was expensive.
 
Henning said:
Ok, then why ar the RV and Boat markets just fine and airplanes sucking wind?:dunno: We have now heard airplanes are cheap fun, and more useful in this thread, why does the public not agree?
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Any body can buy a boat, RV, etc., take it out that day and enjoy.
It takes a lot more commitment to become a pilot, I bet most aren't willing to put forth that much effort.
 
jimbilly said:
??, 60ish hours of training(not including knowledge/ground/reading/books), a medical.

I have to say I suffered sticker shock when I rented my first hour! Yikes. I can play a season of ice hockey for 2 hours in the air. And I thought ice hockey was expensive.
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^This^

1RTK1 said:
Any body can buy a boat, RV, etc., take it out that day and enjoy.
It takes a lot more commitment to become a pilot, I bet most aren't willing to put forth that much effort.
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^And this^
 
1RTK1 said:
Any body can buy a boat, RV, etc., take it out that day and enjoy.
It takes a lot more commitment to become a pilot, I bet most aren't willing to put forth that much effort.
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That says nothing against my point, in fact it strengthens it. More enjoyment bang for the buck.
 
Henning said:
That says nothing against my point, in fact it strengthens it. More enjoyment bang for the buck.
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Yea, I was agreeing with you, and answering your rhetorical question. haha, I think it got reversed somehow.
 
Henning said:
That says nothing against my point, in fact it strengthens it. More enjoyment bang for the buck.
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a Cessna 172 @ the local fbo: $130/hr * 2 = $260
a pontoon boat on lake minnetonka: $90/hr * 2 = $180

fun for me? both are great fun.

fun for family? pontoon 100%. I drag the family to the plane, they love going to the boat.
 
Call it what you want, buy into the recovery and everything is getting better, GA around here is going the way of Europe non existent. :rofl:
 
I think it depends a lot on the location. On nice days, especially weekends, I see lines of small airplanes waiting to take off. We also get traffic called by ATC and on TCAS quite often when flying around metro areas.
 
Everskyward said:
I think it depends a lot on the location. On nice days, especially weekends, I see lines of small airplanes waiting to take off. We also get traffic called by ATC and on TCAS quite often when flying around metro areas.
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It does at that, GA isn't dead, but I see a lot more RVs in the campgrounds as I fly over them in the mountains than I do planes around the same region, and there is no shortage of $250k-$1MM+ RVs on the road and way more $30k-$250k ones competing for the same expendable income.
 
Henning said:
That says nothing against my point, in fact it strengthens it. More enjoyment bang for the buck.
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When you put the money factor along with the time factor/effort to receive your pilots license it is just easier for most to buy a different recreational toy that can be enjoyed/participated by all.
I really doubt I will ever use my plane for business. On the other hand travel, fun and the convenience of speed and mobility, that's where it is at for me.
 
As a former GA pilot, I say that GA is indeed 'dead'.

Many of the little airports are pretty much dead compared to a couple decades past.

Of course, for the well-heeled, GA will probably never 'die' - but for the average middle class aspirant, it's much less attainable than not so long ago.

I admit that aviation has never been cheap, but now, in relation to what you get, the costs are just insane. Old technology, slow speeds, massive inconvenience.

GA is just not what it should be in the year 2015.
 
Passenger said:
As a former GA pilot, I say that GA is indeed 'dead'.

Many of the little airports are pretty much dead compared to a couple decades past.

Of course, for the well-heeled, GA will probably never 'die' - but for the average middle class aspirant, it's much less attainable than not so long ago.

I admit that aviation has never been cheap, but now, in relation to what you get, the costs are just insane. Old technology, slow speeds, massive inconvenience.

GA is just not what it should be in the year 2015.
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Hell, even airports like Long Beach are dead compared to the 90s when I trained there, and what I couldn't figure out is why they tore down the big Douglas hangars.:confused: They would have been able to be community hangars for every plane on a tie down and still had room for transient jets. It used to be there would be 6-10 planes in the pattern for both 25 L & R plus another half a dozen to dozen planes sequenced for 31. Now you may be waiting a while to see someone come in.
 
Henning said:
Ok, then why ar the RV and Boat markets just fine and airplanes sucking wind?:dunno: We have now heard airplanes are cheap fun, and more useful in this thread, why does the public not agree?
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Because they don't have the 6-10k certificate it takes to go fly one. Once you have it though, there is decent bang for your buck fun to be had in the right situations.
 
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Passenger said:
As a former GA pilot, I say that GA is indeed 'dead'.

Many of the little airports are pretty much dead compared to a couple decades past.

Of course, for the well-heeled, GA will probably never 'die' - but for the average middle class aspirant, it's much less attainable than not so long ago.

I admit that aviation has never been cheap, but now, in relation to what you get, the costs are just insane. Old technology, slow speeds, massive inconvenience.

GA is just not what it should be in the year 2015.
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Dead is such a loaded term.

It's nowhere near dead. The flight schools around here are packed all the time. GA is different, smaller, more compressed in urban areas, but it's not close to dead.

Yes, many of the little airports are dead. But there are lots of variables why besides GA being dead.
 
Bonchie said:
Because they don't have the 6-10k certificate it takes to go fly one. Once you have it though, there is decent bang for your buck fun to be had in the right situations.
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Right there is the key, most people who get their licenses even don't have that situation. Most people do not quit flying because the cost, but because they aren't getting enough for the money. It's what has always limited GA, you could make it super cheap, and most people still wouldn't.

GA will not expand to the masses until you can fly to the store, or to work. For that to happen, it will require autonomous quad copter type machines.
 
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