I use inflated wind speeds

[tinerj]

I use this site http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/ for various weather forecast including wind speeds. I select "INFLATED WIND SPEEDS" from the wind speed menu because that choice works best for forecast wind speeds.

On the nws.noaa site here is the explanation: INFLATED WIND SPEED: The true wind speed (in knots) adjusted to improve forecasts of higher wind speeds. Wind speeds greater than the mean wind speed observed are increased, and wind speeds less than the mean are decreased.

On the Internet I found this explanation of inflated wind speeds:

Inflated forecasts are obtained by subtracting the developmental sample mean from the regression estimate, dividing the difference by the (multiple) correlation coefficient, and adding the result to the sample mean.

Which means I have no idea what inflated winds speeds are.

 

[Velocity173]

I go to AWC, click forecast, click wind / temps, click wind and temps plot. Done. Easy visual of current and forecasted winds and from my experience, pretty accurate.

 

[coloradobluesky]

Sounds like their predictions of wind are +- error. If the "inflated" wind speed work for you, use them. Its a statistics thing. The center of the prediction should be the most accurate though. "Should." YMMV

 

[eman1200]

works for me every time

 

[Chris Fischer]

works for me every time

First hand empirical data...the most trusted kind of data.

 

[Bill]

works for me every time

Rodney in a wifebeater? Oh my how you've fallen....

 

[Tantalum]

Which means I have no idea what inflated winds speeds are.

Reading the definitions it is an interesting concept.. but, as Colorado points out:

The center of the prediction should be the most accurate though

..true, but it would be interesting for those of that care to plot out some more data points... would be cool to see standard deviation and a distribution

Would be cool to see a distribution of winds forecast for a given day, say across 100 sample points. It would be cool to see this as a wind forecast
The average wind speed would be the orange dot, most of the wind would be the blue dot, and yet the wind may still feel stronger since it is so heavily right tailed. Vertical axis being the number of wind samples and horizontal being the wind speed