How safe is flying?

Sport Pilot said:
I just completed my first flight on Tuesday. Woke up this morning with the news saying 257 died in one plane crash and 6 died in another.

Of course, I know there will always be accidents; electrical failures, fuel shortage, and human error.

But, how safe is flying generally?
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Statistically, it's about the same as riding a motorcycle.

The difference is that on the motorcycle it's probably going to be someone else's carelessness that kills you. In the airplane, it will nearly always be your own damn fault if you die. 85% of accidents are pilot error.

The biggest three that seem to keep making up a significant portion of accidents are these:

1) Fuel starvation, IE, running out of gas.
2) Going into weather that the pilot or airplane is not equipped for and losing control
3) "Maneuvering flight," ie buzzing your buddy's house.

These are very easy to avoid: Always plan on at least an hour of reserve fuel and don't be shy about diverting to refuel at an unplanned stop if anything changes from your original plan. If weather begins to go bad, land (or don't take off in the first place). And don't buzz anyone's house, boat, car, etc.

Do that, and flying is probably as safe or safer than driving.
 
There are a lot of variables in how people go after a task. I think about risk a lot — by nature. I begin narrowing down the possible gotchas many days before a flight. If it becomes clear there won't be enough backup options in a sceanrio, plans change or chit gets put on ice. Many a folk spend the bulk of their existence in climate controlled artificial environments, loosing a connnection to nature. It's easy to do.

In flying, a healthy respect for mother nature is absolutely essential. She gives no ****z and will smite thee. How I view the challenges/options depends on whether it's just me, me and another pilot, or nonaviation passengers.

I think being in a continual state of learning and improving, changes the game markedly in our favor.
 
When I started flying I was concerned about this too. The more I watched documentaries about crashes and read NTSB reports, the more reassured I felt. If you know your take off requirements, do a preflight check (do you have enough fuel, and is the control lock removed?) and stay out of IMC you're miles ahead of the statistical average. Those things are very easy to do. That won't stop Internet mathematicians from "running the numbers" and informing you that based on the number of hours you've flown, you've been killed 3 times already. But as others have said, it's almost entirely in your hands, unlike bikes and cars.

The deeper side of it though is, why do so many experienced pilots still have accidents? The basic safety checks might be easy to do. But maybe flying for hundreds or thousands of hours without ever neglecting to do all those checks even once is not quite so easy for most people. Still up to you though :)
 
Sport Pilot said:
I just completed my first flight on Tuesday. Woke up this morning with the news saying 257 died in one plane crash and 6 died in another.

Of course, I know there will always be accidents; electrical failures, fuel shortage, and human error.

But, how safe is flying generally?
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Here is the top causes of GA fatalities - all but two are preventable.
  • Powerplant or other component failure
  • Low Altitude Operations - flying into the ground or obstructions
  • Failure to maintain control of aircraft
  • Continued visual flight into instrument meteorological conditions.
  • Running out of gas
  • Windshear or Thunderstorm.
  • Midair Collisions.
  • Other
 
Right. The reason I ask if flying is safe is because I am not a experienced pilot. In fact, I am a student with only one flight under my belt and that was just 2 days ago! I am new to all of this. I never once gave safety a thought when I’m boarding a commercial airline going to Miami. But now that I’m behind the stick, it gives me an entirely different outlook.
 
It would be trite to say that there can be an element of risk in any endeavor, so I'm not going to say it.
Aviation has a different set of risks; but the assessment of risk is in the eyes of the beholder.

to a parachutist, jumping out of an airplane is perfectly normal
to a pilot, it is an emergency procedure

I'm not going to do the research, but I would bet that if 3 causes of accidents were removed - flying into IMC without training, running out of fuel, and playing too close to thunderstorms - the aviation accident/fatality rate would plummet (instead of the aircraft:eek:).

Fly within your limits
Fly to reduce your limitations
 
I'm only 22, but I've been flying GA since I was in the womb and I haven't been bitten yet. Knock on wood.
 
Sport Pilot said:
Right. The reason I ask if flying is safe is because I am not a experienced pilot. In fact, I am a student with only one flight under my belt and that was just 2 days ago! I am new to all of this. I never once gave safety a thought when I’m boarding a commercial airline going to Miami. But now that I’m behind the stick, it gives me an entirely different outlook.
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You can kill yourself in GA. You have to work at it, but it can be done. Stay away from uncontrolled fields on pretty weekend days, keep fuel in the tanks, and don't fly into weather above your skill. These will reduce your risk tremendously. But yeah, you can still get killed - the consequences of your acts are generally much greater than in a car; effing up at low altitude is a favorite fatal mistake for newer pilots (and some older pilots).

Blow off the stats you may see here, or elsewhere - no one really knows the accident "rate" in GA - they're guessing, since the hours flown are a guess, as well. Probably about the same as off-road motorcycling, but I'm also just guessing.

I know people killed in GA. And cars, motorcycles, and military aviation. Physics and the universe don't care - if you're self sufficient and and pay attention, you'll die of something other than flying, most likely. If you need to rely on sources outside yourself, then buy a boat; you can't "pull over", or pass control to someone else. If it gets thick, if you punch into bad weather, get trapped on top, etc., you're gonna survive (or not) by your own efforts. If thatr creeps you out, then own it, and do something else.

Airline flying is a very different thing - heavily regulated, redundant equipment, two full time professional pilots, mostly straight and level flying, under almost constant radar contact, mostly in protected airspace. The rate SHOULD be low, as the risks are minimal. You're safer in a cruise ship than a canoe. . .
 
Statistically flying is actually more safe than driving a car. Now that's open to several interpretations. But to answer your question, flying is as safe as the Pilot behind the wheels. In my experience pilots are some of the most generous people I know but we are also some of the most arrogant people I know. As long as you fly within safety limits and respect the hell out of weather you will become a very old and grey pilot.
 
easik said:
Statistically flying is actually more safe than driving a car. Now that's open to several interpretations. But to answer your question, flying is as safe as the Pilot behind the wheels. In my experience pilots are some of the most generous people I know but we are also some of the most arrogant people I know. As long as you fly within safety limits and respect the hell out of weather you will become a very old and grey pilot.
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Statistically it’s not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Statistically, it's about the same as riding a motorcycle.
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Actually it depends on how you measure it, whether you choose per hour, per mile or per registered vehicle.

Motorcycles have about a 72/100,000 registered vehicle fatality rate [1] which is about the same as airplanes[2]. But motorcycles have about a 3.9/10,000,000 mile fatality rate[1] versus a 172's .45/100,000 hours or a DA40's .35/100,000 hours[3]. Roughly estimating that a 172 or DA40 goes about 100mph, that makes the airplane about 10:1 less fatal.

[1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/810990 (sorry I don't have more recent data on this one)
[2] https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/com...common-ga-aircraft.103339/page-2#post-2293007 (thanks @wanttaja !)
[3] https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Cirrus_Safety_Record_Average_205914-1.html (yeah, this one's a few years old too)
 
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Sport Pilot said:
My friends love me because they know I’ll be the last one to let them down...
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The version I had always heard was "When I die I want the Cleveland Browns to be my pallbearers. That way they can let me down one more time."

The most common statistic on aviation safety I've read is 1 fatal per 100,000 hours of GA flying. And yes, prior to taking lessons, I never gave much of a thought to these statistics. Now I read Kathryns report at least a couple of times a week.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
With ADS-B, getting safer all the time,
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in 2014 there were a total of 7 midair collisions, 9 dead. In the same year there were 1,163 general aviation accidents, and 229 fatal accidents that caused 354 individual fatalities - so midair accounted for about 2.5% of the fatalities - but year to year variation is on the order of 10%...

Even if ADS-B were totally deployed (which won't happen), and totally 100% effective (which won't happen) there would not be a statistically significant impact on safety.

https://www.aopa.org/-/media/files/aopa/home/training-and-safety/nall-report/26thnallreport2017.pdf
 
About as safe as motorcycles is true on the surface. On the other hand, about half of all motorcycle fatalities (and accidents in general) involve alcohol consumption by the riders. Do keep in mind that most bikes have the power, speed and maneuverability to get away from cars. Take out the alcohol and bikes get lots safer. Lesson: don't drink and ride. Now bikes are way safer.

What gets lots of pilots is flying into IMC. So don't. Still lots of pilots run out of gas. Don't. Don't do showboat maneuvers at low altitude. Now aviation is much safer. Yes, your engine can go out at an inopportune time. Yes, you might get clobbered by another airplane you didn't see that didn't see you. But flying is safer. And no one gets out alive.
 
steingar said:
About as safe as motorcycles is true on the surface.
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Depends on how you measure it.

Motorcycles have about a 3.9/10,000,000 mile fatality rate[1] versus a 172's .45/100,000 hours or a DA40's .35/100,000 hours[2]. Roughly estimating that a 172 or DA40 goes about 100mph, that makes the airplane about 10:1 less fatal.

[1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/810990 (sorry I don't have more recent data on this one)
[2] https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Cirrus_Safety_Record_Average_205914-1.html (yeah, this one's a few years old too)
 
asicer said:
Actually it depends on how you measure it, whether you choose per hour, per mile or per registered vehicle.

Motorcycles have about a 72/100,000 registered vehicle fatality rate [1] which is about the same as airplanes[2]. But motorcycles have about a 3.9/10,000,000 mile fatality rate[1] versus a 172's .45/100,000 hours or a DA40's .35/100,000 hours[3]. Roughly estimating that a 172 or DA40 goes about 100mph, that makes the airplane about 10:1 less fatal.

[1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/810990 (sorry I don't have more recent data on this one)
[2] https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/com...common-ga-aircraft.103339/page-2#post-2293007 (thanks @wanttaja !)
[3] https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Cirrus_Safety_Record_Average_205914-1.html (yeah, this one's a few years old too)
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Evidence and cited sources on the internet? :eek:

(Thank you.)

Timbeck2 said:
But how does one obtain the skill?
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Instrument rating is a good start. Preferably not in a place like Arizona that has no clouds, and not from a CFII who won't take you into actual (or worse, doesn't even have any actual themselves).

Then, practice, practice, practice.
 
Had my second flight scheduled tomorrow. Spoke with my CFI and he says low visabilty and low clouds in Chicago so 85% chance of me not flying.

Back to armchair flying...
 

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One point that is almost always ignored is that the statistics cited include all part 91 operations. That is the corporate jet flown by two well trained pilots all the way to the Cub being flown by the owner out of his private field. If you take corporate aviation out of the equation then GA safety takes quite a hit. The question by the OP IMO should exclude corporate aviation to be a truthful and fair answer. Corporate aviation has always skewed the results to appear safer than the small private pilot in single engine aircraft actually is.
 
I started obsessing about the wx when I started flying, and I continue to do so. Lots of really good sites on the internet. The OP should be able to tell his CFI when they're going to fly and when not, the information is out there. IT should be come habit, since its one that can save your life.
 
ronnieh said:
One point that is almost always ignored is that the statistics cited include all part 91 operations. That is the corporate jet flown by two well trained pilots all the way to the Cub being flown by the owner out of his private field. If you take corporate aviation out of the equation then GA safety takes quite a hit. The question by the OP IMO should exclude corporate aviation to be a truthful and fair answer. Corporate aviation has always skewed the results to appear safer than the small private pilot in single engine aircraft actually is.
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And then there's banner tow, crop-dusting, pipeline patrol and aerobatics to offset the corporate jets. That's why I look at type specific data (PA28, C172, DA40, etc).
 
Thank you for the links. I agree; if I am studying to be a pilot, it is imperative that I start looking at the METAR and appropriate weather conditions. Otherwise, flying will not be safe.
 
I decided to purchase The Killing Zone based on a recommendation here. The author says: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
 
Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe said:
in 2014 there were a total of 7 midair collisions, 9 dead. In the same year there were 1,163 general aviation accidents, and 229 fatal accidents that caused 354 individual fatalities - so midair accounted for about 2.5% of the fatalities - but year to year variation is on the order of 10%...

Even if ADS-B were totally deployed (which won't happen), and totally 100% effective (which won't happen) there would not be a statistically significant impact on safety.

https://www.aopa.org/-/media/files/aopa/home/training-and-safety/nall-report/26thnallreport2017.pdf
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Pretty broad statement from one year of data. As one who just recently had an ADS-B traffic alert save my pink butt, I disagree wholeheartedly with your premise. Secondly, you seem to disregard the possibility that having FIS -B may just prevent the aforementioned blunder into hazardous weather.
ADS-B enhances situational awareness. Situational awareness saves lives. Therefore ADS-B saves lives. Syllogistically rather than statistically speaking.
 
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Challenged said:
I decided to purchase The Killing Zone based on a recommendation here. The author says: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
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While The Killing Zone is a popular book, many also disagree with its premises. Gee, most pilots are killed in... the range of hours most pilot have. Shocking. Search threads here...

I would take @asicer's references over that book any day.
 
Flying is safer than being fat.

People don't post these questions when they get into craft beers or soul food, buy a wedding cake, or when they sell their bicycle, or end their gym membership, or even when they think about having kids with their fat significant other.
 
Sport Pilot said:
Thank you for the links. I agree; if I am studying to be a pilot, it is imperative that I start looking at the METAR and appropriate weather conditions. Otherwise, flying will not be safe.
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Also try Avia Weather for your phone. And Windy.
 
Bottom line for me - I refuse to let actuarial science dictate my life choices.

I have other “dangerous” hobbies. I ride motorcycles, drive race cars, scuba dive in caves and wrecks,.... My life is richer for such experiences and I will not sit at home doing nothing because of the number crunching of some statistician. What I will do, however, is use such data to help me make each activity as safe as possible.

The other upside of pursuing such hobbies is that I never worry too much about my cholesterol.... :)
 
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