How many people would be grounded

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Benw

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Benw
If every one in the US went for a 3rd class medical, how many would be denied? How exclusive is this club of pilots?
 
Depends - how hard will the general population try? Even if you fail the Class 3, there are still options with an SI, expensive tests, or further reports.
 
Interesting question. Suppose that the DOT made it mandatory for every person to have a Class III equivalent to get issued a drivers license, what would the initial failure rate be (basically a first visit failure before the other avenues open to get it, like an SI, etc). No idea, but would be willing to wager a highly unscientific wild arse guess, like something in the 30% range. :rolleyes:o_O

Brian
 
Tough question, first off ,are we to assume Light sport pilots and basic med pilots could not pass a class 3 exam.
 
When I wrote this I was thinking about the 100% disqualifying conditions like epilepsy, so let’s assume disqualified even for SI
 
Not sure how you could realistically measure this, so I doubt you’ll get any good answers.

Lots of people are on prescription meds. Lots of people have psychological issues. Lots of people have health complications that would disqualify them. On the flip side, there’s lots of people who are healthy as horses and would pass with flying colors.

Might need to rephrase this to something that has actual statistical evidence that can be applied.
 
Benw said:
When I wrote this I was thinking about the 100% disqualifying conditions like epilepsy, so let’s assume disqualified even for SI
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CDC says epilepsy is active in 1.2% of the US population. I guess we can look up other diseases and get an idea.
 
Benw said:
If every one in the US went for a 3rd class medical, how many would be denied? How exclusive is this club of pilots?
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15% would be denied as illegal drug users and having multiple DUIs.
5% blind
15% for depression and other mental disorders.
5% diabetes.
5% cancer
5% heart disease
2% stroke

More than 50%.
 
Benw said:
How exclusive is this club of pilots?
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Har!!!

Have you ever been to an AOPA fly-in or to OSH? Private pilots aren't exactly finely tuned athletes, quite the contrary. Barring disease and addiction, it doesn't take much besides a relatively normal heart rate and blood pressure to pass a third class.
 
Clip4 said:
15% would be denied as illegal drug users and having multiple DUIs.
5% blind
15% for depression and other mental disorders.
5% diabetes.
5% cancer
5% heart disease
2% stroke

More than 50%.
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50% might be on the high side, some folks will overlap a number of those ailments.

Anyone know the Class III first time denial rate? It's probably skewed by applicants that only apply when they know they'll pass, but I wonder how may apply and end up denied?
 
Clip4 said:
15% would be denied as illegal drug users and having multiple DUIs.
5% blind
15% for depression and other mental disorders.
5% diabetes.
5% cancer
5% heart disease
2% stroke

More than 50%.
Click to expand...
1 in 20 people in the US are blind? Seems a bit much.
 
Clip4 said:
15% would be denied as illegal drug users and having multiple DUIs.
5% blind
15% for depression and other mental disorders.
5% diabetes.
5% cancer
5% heart disease
2% stroke

More than 50%.
Click to expand...
If I'm looking at this correctly, you aren't allowing for any overlap. I would suspect a significant number of individuals who would be disqualified for drug use and/or DUI would also end up being diagnosed with depression or other mental disorders. I bet a far number of those with heart disease are also diabetic etc. Factor in individuals that overlap more than one category and that 50% number is going to go down.
 
FlySince9 said:
Aren't the DMV lines long enough for you yet?
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Last time I went to the OH DMV, I was in and out in 30 minutes. Only took that long because my son had to take the test to get his learners permit. We were the only people in there... :D

Prior to that adventure, I was able to get my DL renewed in under 20 minutes. I was #3 in line. I will say that OH has there s&*$ together, unlike VA where the lines have been know to be 2-3 hours deep... :eek:

Besides, the DMV wouldn't be the ones doing the medical anyway, it would be another inefficient, bureaucratic type agency that would need to be stood up....;)

Brian
 
flight2000 said:
Last time I went to the OH DMV, I was in and out in 30 minutes. Only took that long because my son had to take the test to get his learners permit. We were the only people in there... :D

Prior to that adventure, I was able to get my DL renewed in under 20 minutes. I was #3 in line. I will say that OH has there s&*$ together, unlike VA where the lines have been know to be 2-3 hours deep... :eek:

Besides, the DMV wouldn't be the ones doing the medical anyway, it would be another inefficient, bureaucratic type agency that would need to be stood up....;)

Brian
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Funny, I was waiting for quite a while in an OH BMV line in February to get my new DL. 1.5 hours before my number was called.
 
As we age it's very likely the odds of not being able to qualify for a third class medical increases dramatically in the late sixties/early seventies. I went to my 50th high school reunion in 2010 and was amazed at the number of classmates that were morbidly obese, sucking oxygen, confined to a wheelchair, or otherwise exhibiting serious physical disabilities. It was depressing.

My 60th reunion is next summer, and I'm apprehensive about the toll the last decade has taken on what's left of my classmates.
 
The increasing number of ppl on antidepressants and anxiolytics is astounding. I was doing a racing physical for a guy Today in fact and started talking to him about that as I’m going for my medical tomorrow.
 
benyflyguy said:
The increasing number of ppl on antidepressants and anxiolytics is astounding. I was doing a racing physical for a guy Today in fact and started talking to him about that as I’m going for my medical tomorrow.
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I believe it is somewhere approaching 10% of the population.
 
Last time I renewed mu\y DL they had a device to put your face into and read the letters. With glasses I could not get my face into the device and I needed lenses to read close-up....so I just guessed at the letters....the evil woman at DMV was not even listening to what I was saying..she just said OK, so I took my renewed DL and left. What a joke.
 
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