How do you make a go/no go decision on a given day?

EpicDraws

EpicDraws

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Derek
The question is directed at students all the way to ATP--before you push the throttle forward, what do you check (EXCLUDING the plane itself)?

Put the items in order of importance.

For me, mainly local flights:
1. Visibility
2. Cloud ceiling
3. Winds and crosswinds
4. Overall cloud cover
5. Area TFRs
6. Forecasts for a few hours past my flight
7. NOTAMs

In a similar vein, how many of you maintain personal minimums you follow? If so, what are they and what is your highest certificate/rating?

Thanks for helping out a new private pilot!
 
EpicDraws said:
The question is directed at students all the way to ATP--before you push the throttle forward, what do you check (EXCLUDING the plane itself)?

Put the items in order of importance.

For me, mainly local flights:
1. Visibility
2. Cloud ceiling
3. Winds and crosswinds
4. Overall cloud cover
5. Area TFRs
6. Forecasts for a few hours past my flight
7. NOTAMs

In a similar vein, how many of you maintain personal minimums you follow? If so, what are they and what is your highest certificate/rating?

Thanks for helping out a new private pilot!
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If I'm feeling on top of my game, which is of course mainly subjective, then FAA minimums are my personal minimums.

Of the 7. conditions you've listed, visibility and crosswinds would be the most limiting, generally speaking but, each of the seven needs analysis separately and each on its own could scratch a flight or cause a delay, or re-route.
 
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Thanks! What rating do you have?
 
EpicDraws said:
The question is directed at students all the way to ATP--before you push the throttle forward, what do you check (EXCLUDING the plane itself)?

Put the items in order of importance.

For me, mainly local flights:
1. Visibility
2. Cloud ceiling
3. Winds and crosswinds
4. Overall cloud cover
5. Area TFRs
6. Forecasts for a few hours past my flight
7. NOTAMs

In a similar vein, how many of you maintain personal minimums you follow? If so, what are they and what is your highest certificate/rating?
Click to expand...
This morning, I had planned an IFR proficiency flight in some low but benign IMC. I decided not to go because the grass runway was too wet from overnight rains.

More seriously, I couldn't make a prioritized list. Most of my flying is xcountry on an IFR plan. The planning starts at least a day but more often 3 or 4 days out. Here's a list not necessarily in order of importance.
  • What kind of flexibility do we have in terms of leaving and returning at a different time or on a different day?
  • How is the weather synopsis versus the plan and our flexibility
  • Is the plane 100%? If not, what's not 100% and can we fly like that.
  • Is the pilot 100%? He who hoots with the owls cannot soar with the eagles.
  • Is the flight legal - TFRs, IFR mins
  • Personal minimums - none. But I would never plan a flight into forecast IFR minimums, or ice. Fight into convective activity requires that I stay visual. Night requires better conditions than day. Passengers (aka distractions) raise the bar. Unfamiliar airports and terrain raise the bar compared to the familiar. IFR departures into low and thick IMC after a week not flying gets as much respect as an IFR arrival into low IMC.
Of all the possible issues, "get-home-itis" is always a major risk. A variation is
"must-make-the-flight" which usually involves passengers or expectant observers.

It's not what you check before departing but rather your willingness to kill the flight that can be the most challenging thing of all.
 
1. If winter, did I remember to turn on the engine heater the night before?
2. Is the weather nice? I'm VFR only
3. Is there someplace I really want to go? When fuel was under $3 I frequently drove out after work just to punch holes in the sky. Not anymore. There has to be a reason for me to drive the 50 sm RT to fly.
 
After the preflight I go into the lounge to check for TFR's and then I go into the bathroom and look in the mirror.
I point one finger at the image and ask, "Do you feel lucky punk? Do ya?"
If he does, I go...
 
Depends if you're ready to go IFR or not.

Obviously if the destination is NOTAM'd or their is a TFR over (or pretty much blocking it). I can't go. However, that's infrequent enough, though I do check it, it's the last thing I do in the decision making process.

I pull up the weather briefing. If the route looks VFR and forecast to stay VFR, I'm golden.
If it's not, then more sophisticated weather planning gets involved. What are the projected conditions enroute and at the destination. What is the weather at the departure point (while some will, I don't do 0-0 takeoffs. I like to have at least 500' before I enter the soup). Will I be able to get into the destination (in many cases, I fly into a field with no approaches). If not, how about my alternate? Are there t-storms or icing conditions present?

Frankly, the Navion isn't too beholden to winds. While it can be uncomfortable in gusty conditions (and boy it means I'm going to have to hand fly it, my autopilot doesn't do that well) the Navion is pretty good on landings with crosswinds, etc... Unless we're talking hurricane force winds I don't tend to let winds bother me. The Navion can be a bear taxiing in a crosswind though (well it's a pig taxiing in general).

Then after all that analysis, I make the go/no-go case to my wife (also a pilot). She's also a pilot but a bit more conservative (and gets less tolerant of real turbulence). She's usually along and gets the chance to veto or comment on the planning.
 
EpicDraws said:
The question is directed at students all the way to ATP--before you push the throttle forward, what do you check (EXCLUDING the plane itself)?

Put the items in order of importance.

For me, mainly local flights:
1. Visibility
2. Cloud ceiling
3. Winds and crosswinds
4. Overall cloud cover
5. Area TFRs
6. Forecasts for a few hours past my flight
7. NOTAMs

In a similar vein, how many of you maintain personal minimums you follow? If so, what are they and what is your highest certificate/rating?

Thanks for helping out a new private pilot!
Click to expand...
None of that directly affects my go/nogo decisions except in the rare case when the weather precludes the possibility of a safe departure. The rest just factors into the probability that I can complete the flight to the intended destination vs the inconvenience of having to go out of my way, divert, or RTB if the wx is inadequate.
 
One major one you don't have that always plays a role is how I'm feeling.

For example, two weeks ago I canceled a trip that I would have made otherwise because my lower back was in a little pain, I felt a bit under the weather, and I was worried about flying in so-so conditions.
 
EpicDraws said:
The question is directed at students all the way to ATP--before you push the throttle forward, what do you check (EXCLUDING the plane itself)?

Put the items in order of importance.

For me, mainly local flights:
1. Visibility
2. Cloud ceiling
3. Winds and crosswinds
4. Overall cloud cover
5. Area TFRs
6. Forecasts for a few hours past my flight
7. NOTAMs
Click to expand...
Being that you are a student from the Bay Area you probably would not have thought of this one, but being that it is winter I check the runway conditions. Is it plowed? What is the braking action? Maybe that comes under NOTAMS.
 
Interesting. So it sounds that the personal minimums approach my instructor taught me is all but a myth in practice? Even VFR pilots?
 
How do I feel?
What condition is the plane in?
How important is the mission to me?
How much am I being paid for making the flight?
Icing potential?
Severe convection; T-Sorms?
Ceilings enroute? Vis at least 5 miles under ceilings <500?
Do I really feel like doing this?

That's pretty much my process and most all my flying is VFR. Any one of the above I don't like I'll say 'f-it' without a problem.
 
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Henning said:
How do I feel?
What condition is the plane in?
How important is the mission to me?
How much am I being paid for making the flight?
Icing potential?
Severe convection; T-Sorms?
Ceilings enroute? Vis at least 5 miles under ceilings <500?
Do I really feel like doing this?

That's pretty much my process. Any one of the above I don't like I'll say 'f-it' without a problem.
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Yeap!

Me too but it is more of a feeling,. If one sac puckers I might go if its important to me.

If both sacs pucker its a no go.
 
My mins are as follows:

Am I getting paid?

If Yes goto 10 else goto 20

10: Am i able to make this flight safely either under IFR or VFR?
Would I put my nieces on this airplane (further verifying that this is indeed a safe flight)?
If not, no go.

20: Is there a specific mission to this flight ? (getting somewhere, getting food, practicing approaches, etc)
Am I going to be able to safely execute the above mission?
Will I have fun doing it?


If I'm not getting paid and it ain't gonna be fun, I ain't flying.


-----------------------
CSEL + CMEL + IR
 
Everskyward said:
Being that you are a student from the Bay Area you probably would not have thought of this one, but being that it is winter I check the runway conditions. Is it plowed? What is the braking action? Maybe that comes under NOTAMS.
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Snow? In the Bay Area? The tops of the coastal range sometimes gets it but.....

Edit. Okay he is a PPL so he might fly to the mountains.
 
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Sac Arrow said:
Snow? In the Bay Area? The tops of the coastal range sometimes gets it but.....
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Right. That's why I mentioned something that the OP probably hadn't thought of. He or she is not always going to be confined to flying in the Bay Area.
 
Anything that elicits a spontaneous "oh crap" prior to rotating is an automatic cancellation.

Glenn
 
For us, there's no real decision. It's always go. On vary rare occasions we might have to delay a departure or divert to an alternate. We might have to divert once a year or so and it's been 20 years since we had to delay a departure. We've only cancelled two flights due to weather in 25 years. One was in severe VFR conditions, but a thick coat of black ice the night before made taxiing impossible the other was due to golf-ball sized hail at the destination airport.
 
Unfortunately, the decision is not a linear exercise and trying to prioritize your list is of little value in real life other than to assure that you don't omit anything. If a major snag is present, you're going to know about it and spend a disproportionate amount of time deciding if you can overcome the associated problems, so whatever tools are necessary will be those most used.

Only after the biggie is put to bed (either yes or no) will you move on to the other items in the list, in whatever order seems appropriate for the circumstances.
 
How bad do I want to go? If it's not a great day, or it just looks funky, and I'm meh about it, I won't even go if I'm not feeling like I should. If I want/need to go somewhere, I look at the convective outlook, sigmets, airmets, and then I reassess. If there is ice (something we don't get much here) and I know I will have to fly in the soup, I won't go. If there is a convective outlook/sigmet I'll look at the radar/FA and do some more figurin'. If I don't think I can stay more than 20 miles from a tstorm I won't go.
 
EpicDraws said:
Interesting. So it sounds that the personal minimums approach my instructor taught me is all but a myth in practice? Even VFR pilots?
Click to expand...

Absolutely not. However, there are other factors (such as all those listed here) that come into play before the "weather personal minimums".
 
EpicDraws said:
Interesting. So it sounds that the personal minimums approach my instructor taught me is all but a myth in practice? Even VFR pilots?
Click to expand...

That's not completely true, it's just that 'personal minimums' are just that, personal. Our personal minimums will change with time and experience. I will fly under conditions others will not and I will not fly through conditions many others will.
 
murphey said:
Absolutely not. However, there are other factors (such as all those listed here) that come into play before the "weather personal minimums".
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Lots of people still have personal minimums that I talk to. 20 knots Xwind component, and they won't even think about taking the flight.

if it's not shearing or microbursting (or CB) I'll at least try the approach, if I see the RWY environment and the XC is manageable, I'll land, if not, I got enough fuel to go elsewhere and I'll settle for that as well.

Safety is always number 1. You just have to get a feel for where and when you feel safe. If it's gusting 50 down the runway, I might be hesitant to fly that day, but the folks up in alaska would laugh at me and go flying anyway. They have what it takes to fly that environment, I don't quite have that experience yet.

You just have to figure out what your limits are, in a safe manner. And don't push your luck, but push your limits.
 
elmetal said:
Lots of people still have personal minimums that I talk to. 20 knots Xwind component, and they won't even think about taking the flight.

if it's not shearing or microbursting (or CB) I'll at least try the approach, if I see the RWY environment and the XC is manageable, I'll land, if not, I got enough fuel to go elsewhere and I'll settle for that as well.

Safety is always number 1. You just have to get a feel for where and when you feel safe. If it's gusting 50 down the runway, I might be hesitant to fly that day, but the folks up in alaska would laugh at me and go flying anyway. They have what it takes to fly that environment, I don't quite have that experience yet.

You just have to figure out what your limits are, in a safe manner. And don't push your luck, but push your limits.
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One thing experience has taught me is that when the crosswind is severe, you can normally get permission from the airport manager to land on a perpendicular taxiway or ramp surface for the asking, especially if you're gonna buy fuel.:yesnod:
 
Not at Norman, OK. When I went to a frat reunion a few Aprils back they said all that stuff is no longer allowed at their airport and most others in the area.
Henning said:
One thing experience has taught me is that when the crosswind is severe, you can normally get permission from the airport manager to land on a perpendicular taxiway or ramp surface for the asking, especially if you're gonna buy fuel.:yesnod:
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Is this business or pleasure -

while all takeoffs are optional sometimes the option gets pushed back a little further -

obviously if I'm going up to exercise the pilot proficiency and airplane I prefer a nice day - that can mean a nice day above the clouds or below - without crosswinds or predicted/likely bumps.

But that depends too - sometimes I'm going up for crosswind practice or instrument proficiency or whatever.

If I'm needed somewhere then I'll accept a little more wx 'effort' assuming I've done it or some combination of 'it' before . . . I'm too old to be learning new tricks but there are an awful lot of 'em in the bag right now. . . I've picked all the low hanging and even some medium hanging fruit so I'm not looking to take much out of the luck bucket right now . . .

You wake up - look at the weather when you are to leave and where you are going - make sure you can live with and Obama has not decided to go visit a sustainable rice farm in the Mojave Desert and that the airplane can meet the requirements of the plan and any reasonable deviations - and off you go - or not.
 
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wabower said:
Ayup, Blustery spring day 29G36 from NW. Taildragger handled it well, but no fun for the fat boy.
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Colorado City was one of my pipeline fuel stops, he never had a problem, "Land how you can, park where you want, I'll meet you with chocks and the the truck. If you're going into town for lunch I'll have the kid bring the car and we'll tie you to the truck till you get back", that was service.:yesnod:

Harrison AR I was bringing in a Stinson, had a 40kt crosswind, I landed across the runway lined up with the taxiway, basically hovered down then wheel taxied to the ramp. Ronnie the IA there watched and opened the hangar door for me to taxi in.

Can't figure why people would make it difficult to do business with them.:dunno:
 
I think they're on a short leash and "by the book" dictates everything they do.
Henning said:
Colorado City was one of my pipeline fuel stops, he never had a problem, "Land how you can, park where you want, I'll meet you with chocks and the the truck. If you're going into town for lunch I'll have the kid bring the car and we'll tie you to the truck till you get back", that was service.:yesnod:

Harrison AR I was bringing in a Stinson, had a 40kt crosswind, I landed across the runway lined up with the taxiway, basically hovered down then wheel taxied to the ramp. Ronnie the IA there watched and opened the hangar door for me to taxi in.

Can't figure why people would make it difficult to do business with them.:dunno:
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wabower said:
I think they're on a short leash and "by the book" dictates everything they do.
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"The Book" though says the airport manager has over riding authority.:dunno: The FAA doesn't care where you land, not even the Flying J on I-20. The only thing the Fed wanted to know was whether the plane had a Mogas STC. He even told me he told the lady who called that there was no rule against me landing there. He told me he he preferred I did that than run out of fuel. Luckily he understood pipeline patrol.
 
EpicDraws said:
Interesting. So it sounds that the personal minimums approach my instructor taught me is all but a myth in practice? Even VFR pilots?
Click to expand...

What exactly is your perception of personal minimums? A definition.

My personal minimums for REGULATED things are the SAME as the FAA minimums, including but not limited to currency, Special VFR and IFR where applicable, unless something unique to the flight merits a calculated, judgemental change by me.

My personal minimums on NON-REGULATED considerations such as crosswinds, are dictated by a summation of both aircraft capabilities and my perception of my personal performance capabilities at that moment.

One way or another, any pilot's "set minimums" can and probably will at sometime be rationally (or unrationally, unfortunately) changed by them for some reason at any time.
 
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