Hold er, Ned!

[John Baker]

I'm still waiting for my flying car that I can use to launch from the road when the traffic gets too heavy on the ground. Seems like Pop Sci predicted that would have occurred a long time ago.

Not every scientific advancement will live up to the old Popular Science or Mechanics predictions, or at least on their timetable. Nevertheless, we somehow keep advancing technologically.

There was once an amazing computer contraption that used up a whole room, had thousands of vacuum tubes and even more electro-mechanical switches. It was used to make firing trajectory tables for indirect fire weapons. In the field, the accuracy of those charts was astounding. That awesome computing power can now be found on a small, hand held calculator.

Granted, the concept of artificial intelligence is nothing more than theory waiting for some sort of technological breakthrough that will turn it into reality. The point is, there are many computer labs actually working on it. Scientists are taking the concept seriously. It is a very realistic daydream.

You can bet, should it happen, pilot-less aircraft will be a whole lot safer than todays aircraft. I think the chances are very good that airborne freight operations will be using pilot-less aircraft that employ computer programs, before AI is actually a working concept.

We are making fantastic technological advances every year. Have you seen the new Sears vacuum cleaner yet?

John

 

[gismo]

Not every scientific advancement will live up to the old Popular Science or Mechanics predictions, or at least on their timetable. Nevertheless, we somehow keep advancing technologically.

There was once an amazing computer contraption that used up a whole room, had thousands of vacuum tubes and even more electro-mechanical switches. It was used to make firing trajectory tables for indirect fire weapons. In the field, the accuracy of those charts was astounding. That awesome computing power can now be found on a small, hand held calculator.

Granted, the concept of artificial intelligence is nothing more than theory waiting for some sort of technological breakthrough that will turn it into reality. The point is, there are many computer labs actually working on it. Scientists are taking the concept seriously. It is a very realistic daydream.

Last time I checked, most AI efforts were aimed at "expert systems" and semi-autonymous vehicle control systems. While it does seem plausible that someday there will be a computer capable of reacting "properly" (e.g. like a competent human) to unanticipated conditions I strongly suspect that this is still a long way off. As to the concept of a "sentient" (self aware) computer, my guess is that it will be at least as difficult to confirm such a capability as it is to develop it.

We are making fantastic technological advances every year. Have you seen the new Sears vacuum cleaner yet?

John

Do you mean the latest Roomba? Seems like I had a toy shaped and colored like a (large) ladybug that was almost as capable route-wise back in the '60s.

 

[John Baker]

I was being fictitious about the vacuum cleaner. I haven't been in a Sears store in years. Is there really one called a Roomba?

John

 

[ScottM]

I was being fictitious about the vacuum cleaner. I haven't been in a Sears store in years. Is there really one called a Roomba?

John

Yes there is a roomba and it has been out for a while

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roomba


And if you really want a freak out read V. Busch's article on the Memex from 1945. He basically lays out the handheld computer with wireless Internet device.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/194507/bush

As Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, Dr. Vannevar Bush has coordinated the activities of some six thousand leading American scientists in the application of science to warfare. In this significant article he holds up an incentive for scientists when the fighting has ceased. He urges that men of science should then turn to the massive task of making more accessible our bewildering store of knowledge. For years inventions have extended man's physical powers rather than the powers of his mind. Trip hammers that multiply the fists, microscopes that sharpen the eye, and engines of destruction and detection are new results, but not the end results, of modern science. Now, says Dr. Bush, instruments are at hand which, if properly developed, will give man access to and command over the inherited knowledge of the ages. The perfection of these pacific instruments should be the first objective of our scientists as they emerge from their war work. Like Emerson's famous address of 1837 on "The American Scholar," this paper by Dr. Bush calls for a new relationship between thinking man and the sum of our knowledge. —THE EDITOR

It is considered one of the best future articles of its time and is still read a cited in research.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

There was once an amazing computer contraption that used up a whole room, had thousands of vacuum tubes and even more electro-mechanical switches. It was used to make firing trajectory tables for indirect fire weapons. In the field, the accuracy of those charts was astounding. That awesome computing power can now be found on a small, hand held calculator.

True - But the only real "invention" that allowed this to happen was that of the transistor. Even the integrated circuit is pretty much just a bunch of interconnected miniature transistors. A lot of innovation has made the density of transistors on a chip pretty insane, but at the end of the day, that handheld (or even wristwatch) calculator is doing the same thing that ENIAC did - switching electrical signals representing ones and zeroes. We're simply doing it faster.

Granted, the concept of artificial intelligence is nothing more than theory waiting for some sort of technological breakthrough that will turn it into reality. The point is, there are many computer labs actually working on it. Scientists are taking the concept seriously. It is a very realistic daydream.

Similar to cold fusion. Will that ever happen? I don't know. What I do have a fair bit of certainty about is that true artificial intelligence will never happen using today's silicon integrated circuit based computing devices. No matter how fast they get, they are stuck to the logic built into them at the time of construction (we're talking REALLY low level here - Software is a different ballgame, but the software is still restricted by the capabilities of the hardware).

"It will demonstrate the folly of trying to predict the future."

I'm not sure what to think of this comment. Stop looking ahead? What we have now is probably it? Dreaming of better things is folly?

No. Trying to state with absolute certainty what WILL happen, as you seem to be doing in this thread, is ridiculous. By the time AI gets to the point where it can truly fly better than a human pilot, we may not be using airplanes any more. For example, someone 150 years ago could have predicted a self-navigating horse cart with absolute certainty in their mind, but then someone came along and invented the car, rendering their predicted product pretty much useless.

 

[John Baker]

"No. Trying to state with absolute certainty what WILL happen, as you seem to be doing in this thread, is ridiculous. By the time AI gets to the point where it can truly fly better than a human pilot, we may not be using airplanes any more. For example, someone 150 years ago could have predicted a self-navigating horse cart with absolute certainty in their mind, but then someone came along and invented the car, rendering their predicted product pretty much useless."
__________________
Kent.CP-ASMEL-IA.KMSN

Finally, someone got through my thick skull into that jumbled up gray matter it contains. Thank you Kent, Your explanation gave me an understanding of where everyone else was coming from. I did not intend to come across with the idea that my predictions were an absolute. Reading back, that is exactly what I was doing. I will stop beating my head against a wall now.

John