Here is potentially why GA is doomed

[StevieTimes]

Because everything is like, doomed, man.

Check out this report on how motorcycling is doomed:
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-motorcycle-summit-20171214-story.html

It's pretty interesting, and I couldn't help but draw parallels to flying little airplanes around. It's not apples to apples, but some of it applies, I think.

Golf courses that were around my whole life have closed around here too. A major country club closed down, literally open my whole life.

Motorcycles don't have to be expensive, and some can be insured pretty cheaply too. A guy could save on gas money during the spring, summer, and fall to maybe make up for the money paid in insurance (depending on the bike).

I always thought with population growing, even if we dropped from 7% interested to 5% interested, the sheer volume would make up for the loss of percentage.

Why are so many interests suffering? What is the connection?

 

[Brad Z]

Because everything is like, doomed, man.

Check out this report on how motorcycling is doomed:
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-motorcycle-summit-20171214-story.html

It's pretty interesting, and I couldn't help but draw parallels to flying little airplanes around. It's not apples to apples, but some of it applies, I think.

Golf courses that were around my whole life have closed around here too. A major country club closed down, literally open my whole life.

Motorcycles don't have to be expensive, and some can be insured pretty cheaply too. A guy could save on gas money during the spring, summer, and fall to maybe make up for the money paid in insurance (depending on the bike).

I always thought with population growing, even if we dropped from 7% interested to 5% interested, the sheer volume would make up for the loss of percentage.

Why are so many interests suffering? What is the connection?

I’m pretty sure we’re going to see responses that include the word “millennials” and “iphone”.

 

[Cooter]

The internet. It’s easier to just watch YouTube.

 

[GRG55]

I see the article mentioned attracting new riders...women and youths.
Everything old is new again...

 

[GRG55]

More seriously, I really do think we as a society are collectively getting more and more risk-averse.

Airbags, better PPE on the job, more sophisticated on-site training, more emphasis on protecting the public, more regulations, and so forth. Difficult to argue that protecting the public and improving workers health and safety isn't a good thing. But it does have other consequences in terms of shifting attitudes. The comments after every reported GA incident are ample evidence of that.

 

[Ravioli]

It's even easier than that. You used to have to operate a donor-cycle to be considered bad ass. Now you just need the ink.

The funny part is, you can sell the donor-cycle anytime you want... but that stuff you engrave on your body is going to age with you. And those 20 yr old tats are even less cool than the day they were done.

 

[Ken Ibold]

People have become used to ease and comfort rather than adventure. Give the airplane air conditioning, smooth out the bumps, make it easy.

Which, of course, means painting "Delta" on the fuselage.

(Oh, maybe not the best example this week!)

 

[SkyDog58]

Millennials and iPhones.

 

[Bill]

People have become used to ease and comfort rather than adventure.

My most memorable motorcycle backroads trips are not the warm sunny day ones. Memorable ones were like the day one May when I was on the BRP near Mt Mitchell riding through the mother of all thunderstorms. So much hail that I had to ride in the tire tracks of the car in front of me to stay on clean pavement. Nowhere to pull over, no shelter to be found, I just had to ride it out. Strafing corners in northern WV at near max lean angle on a 34* day with snow flurries in the air. Whee! Many other adverse days. Same with GA flying.

Adventure n. "Adversity retold at leisure"

 

[steingar]

Bikes have gotten really really dangerous. Too many cagers looking at their damn screens. I can't blame anyone for not taking it up.

That said, that article featured the former president of Victory motorcycles, the poster child for oversized overpriced V-Twin cruisers. Whether the market really is that bad for manufacturers who make lots of different bikes I don't know. There are lots of small cheap bikes for sale everywhere, more than there have been for years.

 

[Grum.Man]

People just don't have the extra cash anymore to spend on toys and hobbies. That is pretty much the bottom line. Everyone wants a huge house and a 40-50-60k car/suv. It blows my mind how many 50k Tahoe/Suburban suvs are on the road and 60-70k diesel trucks. With motorcycles in particular, I agree with the article in the fact that they have completely neglected the entry level bikes. They are all drive by wire now so how much could it possible cost to add cruise control to a 600cc bike or a nice color gauge cluster. Why do you have to spend 20k plus just to get a decent suspension?

 

[TCABM]

I saw this article on another forum and won’t repost what I wrote here.

BL: young people rebel by not doing what older people do. That includes expensive hobbies. Especially when they’re broke and in debt up to there ears.

 

[RJM62]

People just don't have the extra cash anymore to spend on toys and hobbies. That is pretty much the bottom line. Everyone wants a huge house and a 40-50-60k car/suv. It blows my mind how many 50k Tahoe/Suburban suvs are on the road and 60-70k diesel trucks. With motorcycles in particular, I agree with the article in the fact that they have completely neglected the entry level bikes. They are all drive by wire now so how much could it possible cost to add cruise control to a 600cc bike or a nice color gauge cluster. Why do you have to spend 20k plus just to get a decent suspension?

I know what you mean. I tend not to spend any more than I have to on depreciating assets, but I seem to be an outlier nowadays.

Rich

 

[SaltH2OHokie]

It's even easier than that. You used to have to operate a donor-cycle to be considered bad ass. Now you just need the ink.

The funny part is, you can sell the donor-cycle anytime you want... but that stuff you engrave on your body is going to age with you. And those 20 yr old tats are even less cool than the day they were done.

My thought on that has long been "I'm not sure I care" based on the assumption that my body in general will just not be as cool 20+ years from now. Will the fact that I've gone from trim and slim to pot bellied and wrinkled in places really be affected that much one way or the other by some faded tattoos?

[I'm talking tattoos in general. My wife has no biker gang tattoos, nor do I have any tattoos at all, though I do own a few bikes... One is a hard tail, foot clutch death trap. No cruise control on that one.]

 

[genna]

I know what you mean. I tend not to spend any more than I have to on depreciating assets, but I seem to be an outlier nowadays.

Rich

That is an interesting statement when it comes to motorcycles. Used bikes, especially sport bikes, tend to hold value and even "grow" in value(disregarding inflation) over time. In the past 10 years or so, the technology level and *cost of new sport bikes have exploded. This has brought a lot of smaller bikes to the market, but also kept used prices very high.

As far as MC industry. While cost does affect new sales, most of it is BS. The industry(overextended and overpriced Harley and Victory notwithstanding) is very strong. It has steadily been increasing sales until about 2016... Gas prices is the culprit in the slowdown. As oil prices tanked, the advantage of riding motorcycle for commuting has all but disappeared. So it is back to being a leisure vehicle for now. As such, MCs go through boom and bust all the time as people get into it en masse, but quickly get out when friends crash.

Edit: this is just my own 2c

 

[Half Fast]

The motorcycle industry, and the referenced article, have missed the answer once again. And it is simple.

Minibikes.

Kids, including mine, still love 'em yet there are hardly any decent ones on the market and there is zero advertising to the general public. Get a kid started on a mini and he'll move to a 250 when he gets old enough.

Anybody remember the Honda Trail 70? Sweet little bike.

The path to getting kids into flying starts with drones, but we're not exploiting it very well. When I was young, everyone was flying CL models and wishing we could afford RC. (Remember the Cox PT-19 we all started with?). That led naturally to an interest in big planes. It's harder to make the reach from quads, but we need to find a way.

 

[Dan Thomas]

To learn to fly, you have to actually go outside. You have to study hard. You have to set aside money, maybe for quite some time. You have to accept risk. To many people it's not worth it.

I once read the results of a study that interviewed a lot of old folks in care homes. The one thing that almost all of them would do different if they had their lives to live over again would be to "take more risks." It seems that safety and ease are not at all satisfying.

 

[Flocker]

Millennials and iPhones.

“bubble-wrapped for safety in their youth” LOL

 

[Brad Z]

The motorcycle industry, and the referenced article, have missed the answer once again. And it is simple.

Minibikes.

Kids, including mine, still love 'em yet there are hardly any decent ones on the market and there is zero advertising to the general public. Get a kid started on a mini and he'll move to a 250 when he gets old enough.

Anybody remember the Honda Trail 70? Sweet little bike.

The path to getting kids into flying starts with drones, but we're not exploiting it very well. When I was young, everyone was flying CL models and wishing we could afford RC. (Remember the Cox PT-19 we all started with?). That led naturally to an interest in big planes. It's harder to make the reach from quads, but we need to find a way.

I think we'll see a change before long. I'm a genXer with a toddler who has watched the coddled millennial generation grow up and enter the workforce. I suspect I and others in my generation will create a generation of kids encouraged to learn on their own and take some risks. It's not the 70s all over again, but I don't see helicoptering parents in this kid's future.

And yeah minibikes were awesome...small wheels, some didn't even have rear brakes! Running thing is growing up pre YouTube I never saw videos of crashing motorcycles and dangerous stuff. I mean we knew three wheelers could be dangerous, but we never saw a bad wreck. On the other hand, I think YouTube would have encouraged us as teens to do more stupid stuff and film it.

 

[Everskyward]

Most of the motorcycle riders I knew in the past were somewhat-older-than-me boomers in mid-life crisis. That would put them near 70 now.

You can't necessarily expect young people to like what Grandpa liked.

 

[JOhnH]

Golf courses that were around my whole life have closed around here too. A major country club closed down, literally open my whole life.

During the prolonged recession that we are finally climbing out of, many golf courses around here closed too, or were at least on the brink.
But lately, several have reopened or remodeled their clubhouses and improved their grounds and their memberships are growing again.

I think the potential dooms day for many of our activities has been greatly exaggerated.

 

[Everskyward]

During the prolonged recession that we are finally climbing out of, many golf courses around here closed too, or were at least on the brink.
But lately, several have reopened or remodeled their clubhouses and improved their grounds and their memberships are growing again.

I think the potential dooms day for many of our activities has been greatly exaggerated.

Golf has never appealed to me. But, growing up I thought of it as an activity for old men.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

drones will save GA.....

 

[Rykymus]

Not trying to start an argument here, but I can tell why I fly less now than last year. It's the 40% increase in my health insurance costs. If it keeps going up, and my revenue doesn't, I'll end up selling my plane and building a sim.

 

[F01LA]

drones will save GA.....

Yeah.. Compared to GA, flying drones is cheap, safe, and easy. Moving to "real" flying takes a huge time commitment and cash outlay. I'm not seeing much crossover there.

If I were into motorcycles, I wouldn't be too worried. You can still ride fairly cheaply even if the industry shrinks a lot (the move toward autonomous vehicles may be a threat though).

For flying planes, we need lots of runways, FBOs, fuel infrastructure, expensive maintenance, etc. to make it worthwhile. These will get harder to find or very expensive as GA shrinks.

 

[MIFlyer]

During the prolonged recession that we are finally climbing out of, many golf courses around here closed too, or were at least on the brink.
But lately, several have reopened or remodeled their clubhouses and improved their grounds and their memberships are growing again.

I think the potential dooms day for many of our activities has been greatly exaggerated.

i think kids are just less into all motorsports and driving and this will really hurt motorcycling. I do think that commuter motorcycles will be a bigger deal over time, like in Europe as a cheap way to beat walking.

I agree that there are a segment of us Gen Xers parenting little ones that want them to learn how to deal with life, and breathe the fresh air beneath the trees while getting wet and dirty on a walk in the woods, and getting your foot stuck in the swamp mud and losing a boot. I also take my kids flying with me, and on a flight soon, i'll let one of them so a little steering/etc.

my wife's brother was killed on a three wheeler as a kid, so she's OK with risk in general for the girls, but is pretty hesitant on motorsports, which is a bummer, but I understand it.

 

[MIFlyer]

Golf has never appealed to me. But, growing up I though of it as an activity for old men.

yes, but I think that as people get introduced to it, some of them will learn that it's a good way to get some exercise, test your skill, get some fresh air, and hang out with your friends. I was originally a golf hater, but I've come around to it being a pretty great activity if done right.

it's not for everyone, but I think if people discover it, a good percentage will choose to add it to the list of things they do sometimes.

 

[Sac Arrow]

I actually do not own a motorcycle right now. I sold my Concours C14 to make room in the garage for a car. I guess I've just gotten spoiled by comfort and practicality. I might get another bike at some point but it would be a lot smaller than the last two I've owned. Maybe even a scooter.

 

[OkieFlyer]

I'm no expert, and I certainly don't know the sales numbers, but is seems to me like the last 15-20 years saw a huge boom in motorcycling. I swear half the people I know bought a bike. People who have never ridden before. Yamaha, Polaris, Suzuki, Kawasaki, Honda, and HD came up with a host of new models. It was a period that saw the birth of Victory and the resurrection of Indian from the ashes. HD finally had to learn how to build a reliable bike. The Japanese bikes started building real American cruisers. It was difficult to keep up with all the new stuff!!! Then there's the crotch rocket. Sweet Jesus those things were everywhere. There were Motorcycle TV shows galore and racks full of motorcycle magazines. All kinds of bike groups were formed, even church riding groups in even the smallest towns. Then the craziness began to subside. Was it because of wimpy millennials, the economy, poor marketing or product development, iPhones? I don't know. I think a lot of people just got it out of their system and moved on. Now the market is returning back to pre-boom numbers, and some of the manufacturers are getting caught with their pants down after a couple decades of build-up. My wife and I rode for a number of years, but decided to give it up when we started having kids. We'll ride again someday, but for now, we are into things we can do as a family, like airplanes and boats.


Golf is the same way. It's cyclical. I read a good article about it a while back, but I have no idea where it was. I too have seen several established courses/clubs close in recent years, but that number pales in comparison to the number of new ones I've seen built. There is an ebb and flow to public interest in golf due to many factors. If you take a narrow view of the state of golf, it is declining. If you look at the big picture, it's just in another dip.


I don't think GA has much to do with any of this. It's a whole different animal, and it's future much more bleak.

 

[Mtns2Skies]

FWIW Firearm ownership is waaaaaay up. Not all risk related hobbies are on the way down.

Edit: I think it's just transportation has become so automated that people do it as a chore not as a hobby, therefore motorcycles, GA etc decreases in interest.

 

[cowman]

I am technically a Millenial although just barely.... and I say that because after reading all this Millenial-knocking comments and articles I was surprised to find I was in that group. So i guess hi I'm here, I fly.

The idea that Millennial are somehow THAT different than the generations behind them is asinine. The issue is cost and that most of them are a younger group just starting out in their careers or just coming out of a major recession. Sure, if you make it a priority you can afford it but how many people with no previous exposure are going to put in the training, time, study, and money... close to $10,000? and that's just the training so you can start doing what you got into it. These are people with little discretionary income, little free time, and often starting out with a pile of debt from school. If they were all out buying airplanes and flying lessons that would make them financially irresponsible if anything..

 

[steingar]

Minibike:
Honda grom

Kawasaki Z125

Small bikes:
Yamaha Vstar 250

Honda Rebel 300

Kawasaki Ninja 300

Honda CBR 300

And I am only scratching the surface, and haven't even started with scooters. There are literally tons of small displacement inexpensive bikes available on the North American Market. Moreover, most bikes depreciate over time (Harleys are about the only ones that don't, though as the Baby Boomers age out that may change). Bikes can be had more inexpensively than ever (I just sold a Goldwing from the 80's for $1200). With apologies, those claiming there aren't enough small displacement bikes and minibikes simply do not know what they're talking about.

 

[Everskyward]

I am technically a Millenial although just barely.... and I say that because after reading all this Millenial-knocking comments and articles I was surprised to find I was in that group. So i guess hi I'm here, I fly.

The idea that Millennial are somehow THAT different than the generations behind them is asinine. The issue is cost and that most of them are a younger group just starting out in their careers or just coming out of a major recession. Sure, if you make it a priority you can afford it but how many people with no previous exposure are going to put in the training, time, study, and money... close to $10,000? and that's just the training so you can start doing what you got into it. These are people with little discretionary income, little free time, and often starting out with a pile of debt from school. If they were all out buying airplanes and flying lessons that would make them financially irresponsible if anything..

I agree with this. People who learn young are either quite young and without other financial responsibilities, such as a family, or are doing it with career aspirations. This was back in the 80s and I don't think things have changed that much.

Also, as an instructor, I noticed that many dropped out because they did not realize how involved training was, and how much book learning and testing the hobby required. It's also not a particularly social or participatory hobby for the passengers. It's fun for the pilot(s), but not so much so for others, unless they like looking out the window or are interested in the destination.

 

[denverpilot]

I agree with this. People who learn young are either quite young and without other financial responsibilities, such as a family, or are doing it with career aspirations. This was back in the 80s and I don't think things have changed that much.

Nope. The REALLY young folk at the airport seem to have the fiscal backing of parents for the most part. And that was common back when I was learning in the early 90s, too. I think I was the only person I knew who was working three jobs to pay for my own flight lessons.

Everyone else I knew was either doing it on mom and dad’s dimes, or on student loans and had to go 141 to qualify for them. At twice the price I was paying.

The smartest one had mom and dad buy her a twin. She was gone to the airlines in two years which was incredibly short, back then with no “pilot shortage” and thousands furloughed everywhere. Even after she wrecked it, they still wanted that multi time... (Wasn’t her fault, gear wouldn’t come down... from what I heard.) Hasn’t changed. Dutchess was repaired and ended up... somewhere. I don’t know.

 

[Everskyward]

Nope. The REALLY young folk at the airport seem to have the fiscal backing of parents for the most part. And that was common back when I was learning in the early 90s, too. I think I was the only person I knew who was working three jobs to pay for my own flight lessons.

Everyone else I knew was either doing it on mom and dad’s dimes, or on student loans and had to go 141 to qualify for them. At twice the price I was paying.

The smartest one had mom and dad buy her a twin. She was gone to the airlines in two years which was incredibly short, back then with no “pilot shortage” and thousands furloughed everywhere. Even after she wrecked it, they still wanted that multi time... (Wasn’t her fault, gear wouldn’t come down... from what I heard.) Hasn’t changed. Dutchess was repaired and ended up... somewhere. I don’t know.

That's kinda what I was getting at. They are young, without other financial responsibilities, living at home, perhaps being financed by their parents. Of course living at home for free also counts as being financed by your parents. That's what I did. I didn't move out of my mom's apartment until I was done with flying lessons.

 

[denverpilot]

That's kinda what I was getting at. They are young, without other financial responsibilities, living at home, perhaps being financed by their parents. Of course living at home for free also counts as being financed by your parents. That's what I did. I didn't move out of my mom's apartment until I was done with flying lessons.

Yeah. My “nope” was poorly placed in that paragraph. It was a “nope” in agreement with you... LOL. As in “Nope, things haven’t changed much...”

 

[MIFlyer]

FWIW Firearm ownership is waaaaaay up. Not all risk related hobbies are on the way down.

Edit: I think it's just transportation has become so automated that people do it as a chore not as a hobby, therefore motorcycles, GA etc decreases in interest.

actually, a lot of the activities are driven by where you live. more and more people live in rats' mazes called cities.

gun ownership isn't really increasing. current gun owners are buying lots of guns, but few people without guns are buying their first one.

 

[denverpilot]

actually, a lot of the activities are driven by where you live. more and more people live in rats' mazes called cities.

gun ownership isn't really increasing. current gun owners are buying lots of guns, but few people without guns are buying their first one.

I believe @Mtns2Skies is probably most familiar with around here, and new shooters is definitely way up. Helps that we have a number of entrepreneurs who built “country club” style ranges which are really nice to go to, and focused on training and activities designed to bring folks in for recreation, instead of some old indoor ranges here that are just the basement of some house, all grungy and you think you’re headed down to visit The Gimp...

Yeah, we have those too, but the newer recreational places are doing very well. And yeah, the basement place is really cheap and uncrowded once you realize you want somewhere quiet to go to test out something and not pay an arm and a leg to practice for three or four hours straight. But it isn’t where John Q Public wants to go shooting for the first time.

 

[MIFlyer]

I believe @Mtns2Skies is probably most familiar with around here, and new shooters is definitely way up. Helps that we have a number of entrepreneurs who built “country club” style ranges which are really nice to go to, and focused on training and activities designed to bring folks in for recreation, instead of some old indoor ranges here that are just the basement of some house, all grungy and you think you’re headed down to visit The Gimp...

Yeah, we have those too, but the newer recreational places are doing very well. And yeah, the basement place is really cheap and uncrowded once you realize you want somewhere quiet to go to test out something and not pay an arm and a leg to practice for three or four hours straight. But it isn’t where John Q Public wants to go shooting for the first time.

that's super cool! around here, guns are clearly evil and only a crazed sociopath would want to be near one for any reason

 

[denverpilot]

that's super cool! around here, guns are clearly evil and only a crazed sociopath would want to be near one for any reason

Heh. Yeah. It’s entertaining to watch hopolophobes from afar. Keep them there, if you can.

One of the local DPEs owns a gun store specializing in popular “tactical” gear.

I noticed a clerical error in my logbook by another local CFI and called him to see if we could meet up to get it fixed, and he asked if I could meet him at the range near the airport that afternoon, since he was going shooting with a different DPE. LOL.

Would be fun to get them in the same room and see if one is a Glock fan and the other isn’t. Hahahaha. Or some such other standard shooting sports enthusiast arguments...