This is a great thread! Rob, a few comments.
MVFR conditions, in a lot of cases, are IFR conditions as far as I'm concerned. I have had more than one VFR flight when I would have filed IFR if I had the rating. However, now that I am close to my IFR check ride, I'm more comfortable with making those trips because I have a backup. Here are a few things I'd consider, and these are just observations based on my own flying:
1) Before IFR training, I've ended up trying to fly VFR. A few times I went up on days I knew that I wouldn't be able to make my flight just to see what it was like. I found myself doing stupid mistakes that I would never have done in better visibility. Too steep banks, too high of a climb (low airspeed). Wow, I would think, I can see how someone would die in these conditions.
Most recently, a few weeks ago, I made an MVFR trip where for a good portion of it, I was just flying instruments, with checking for aircraft. By this point, I'm comfortable with it, but I'm also pretty close to being instrument rated. This leads into...
2) Adam talked about having to do an approach possibly if he flew out of LOM, and he knows that airport. Now, I fly everywhere with my IFR charts and approach plates, even though I'm not IFR rated. Why? It gives me an extra out, just in case. My instructor made me do an ILS in my private training just so that if I got stuck in IMC and Williamsport was closest, I could call up NY Center (124.9... a frequency I have memorized and is also listed in my A/FD that I always carry with me), admit my stupidity, and get vectors.
So, this leads into the aeronautical decision making aspect of it. You talked about the flight back. I know I tend to get a case of "Gotta get home"-itis when I've flown into a place and I need to get home because the plane needs to get back, I have work the next day, etc. I try to make sure I have an out, either I can easily find the airport for some reason or (what I do now), keep the IFR charts and approach plates.
I'm not saying you made a bad decision. I wasn't there, I am not one to judge your abilities, and furthermore you made it home safely (all that matters). I know I have probably made a few decisions that others would say I shouldn't, and admittedly placed me in a situation where I had fewer outs in case of a problem. Just things to consider. One thing I'll definitely say, though:
Go get that instrument rating!