Hawker down.

Kritchlow said:
I just shake my head in amazement at all the high level NTSB investigators we have here. So good that they can determine cause from three newspaper articles and a picture of flames.
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When you hear hooves, don't go looking for zebras. There aren't a million and one explanations for a 90 degree bank and uncontrolled descent into terrain. Of the ones that exist, a stall is the most probable and the one that accounts for the greatest number of such accidents. I don't think anyone made any conclusive assertions. I said, based on what we had seen, it seemed like a stall-related incident. I stand by that assertion. It doesn't mean it's a proven theory, it means that a stall accounts for the behavior of the plane in its final moments, and is the most likely scenario.
 
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champ driver said:
The 800 has both a stick shaker and pusher.
I agree, an engine out on final should be kind of a non event, even considering go around with full flaps and the temps and probable fuel load for a 40 minute flight.

Getting too slow on an approach has happened before, remember the King Air crash in northern MN that killed Senator Wellstone and part of his family about 10 years ago. Pilots can and do screw up on occasion.
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Or Colgan Air in 2009

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using Tapatalk
 
SkyDog58 said:
Did they issue a NOTAM or a TFR for it? Or was ATC just vectoring traffic around the area?
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I was working on second hand information. It may have very well been the ATC delaying flights and vectoring around the site. The arrival/departures would have been in direct line with Akron Fulton.
 
Yes, all of that is true, but recovering from a stall in a jet is simply a matter of bumping up the power levers. With BOTH shakers and pushers, it's hard to see a crew letting things decay to the point that it became a factor. It just is. We'll see what the Feds have to say.
 
bmoeller said:
At first I thought this might be fake, but now based on how much it's being reported on, it may not.

Girl on snapchat in her room when plane hit the apartments near her. Sounds like it nearly clipped her house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mhQGW3VZiQ
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Not sure what snapchat is but it seems to involve making funny faces and reacting in a strange manner to an explosion. :yikes: :rofl:
 
SkyDog58 said:
Not sure what snapchat is but it seems to involve making funny faces and reacting in a strange manner to an explosion. :yikes: :rofl:
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Exactly! They'll never know the hardships of actually using a phone that was attached to a wall
 
Sad to see. Clearly something went very wrong here and the video does show the aircraft seemingly out of control in the moments before impact. Hopefully the NTSB can figure out what happened so others can learn from what went wrong.
 
Kritchlow said:
I saw that, but I don't think it really tells us much. Hopefully it will be useful to the investigation.
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I'm so glad we have a lawyer pilot to analyze the video and tell us exactly what was going on. Good grief. A simple stall is certainly possible, but there just isn't enough footage there to be making those kind of conclusive statements. They could very well have already hit an obstruction when that video picks them up.
 
Fearless Tower said:
I'm so glad we have a lawyer pilot to analyze the video and tell us exactly what was going on. Good grief. A simple stall is certainly possible, but there just isn't enough footage there to be making those kind of conclusive statements. They could very well have already hit an obstruction when that video picks them up.
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Exactly right.
 
Fearless Tower said:
I'm so glad we have a lawyer pilot to analyze the video and tell us exactly what was going on. Good grief. A simple stall is certainly possible, but there just isn't enough footage there to be making those kind of conclusive statements. They could very well have already hit an obstruction when that video picks them up.
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I bet his office had many leather bound books and smelled of rich mahogany. :thumbsup:
 
Dead Stick said:
Yes, all of that is true, but recovering from a stall in a jet is simply a matter of bumping up the power levers. With BOTH shakers and pushers, it's hard to see a crew letting things decay to the point that it became a factor. It just is. We'll see what the Feds have to say.
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Technically, what's normally recovered from in jet training isn't a stall, it's an approach to stall. Stick shakers (the 700 has 'em) and stick pushers (the 700 doesn't) are there to prevent stalls.

It's not too difficult to imagine a situation where a Hawker that can have a nasty, wing-dropping ACTUAL stall just a couple of knots below stick shaker activation, still well above where the stall should occur. A post-maintenance stall test procedure to ensure that the stall doesn't occur before stick shaker activation is terminated at shaker activation, and requires at least 10,000 feet of clear air below the airplane before you get to clouds or ground...MDA isn't nearly that high.
 
Kritchlow said:
I just shake my head in amazement at all the high level NTSB investigators we have here. So good that they can determine cause from three newspaper articles and a picture of flames.
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They are amazing aren't they? More amazing is their expertise in all things aviation and all types of aircraft, even those they can't recognize a majority of the time. I hear the Go Team looks here before they leave to help in their analyses.
 
KA550 said:
They are amazing aren't they? More amazing is their expertise in all things aviation and all types of aircraft, even those they can't recognize a majority of the time. I hear the Go Team looks here before they leave to help in their analyses.
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I'll tell ya what happened son, it was pilot error.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Technically, what's normally recovered from in jet training isn't a stall, it's an approach to stall. Stick shakers (the 700 has 'em) and stick pushers (the 700 doesn't) are there to prevent stalls.

It's not too difficult to imagine a situation where a Hawker that can have a nasty, wing-dropping ACTUAL stall just a couple of knots below stick shaker activation, still well above where the stall should occur. A post-maintenance stall test procedure to ensure that the stall doesn't occur before stick shaker activation is terminated at shaker activation, and requires at least 10,000 feet of clear air below the airplane before you get to clouds or ground...MDA isn't nearly that high.
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The accident aircraft wasn't a 700, it was a 800A. I'm not typed in the Hawkers, but it is my understanding that the 800s have both a shaker and a pusher. I am typed in 5 bizjets and have over 10,000 hours in them. Based upon my experience flying Lears with both shakers and pushers, I just don't see a crew letting it get to that point. You'd have to be totally oblivious to what was going on. Sure, it's plausible, but on my list of likely scenarios, it's at or near the bottom. To me, the most likely scenario is that they simply descended below the MDA and got bit. I hear they recovered the CVR, my bet is that the recording will tell the tale.
 
Dead Stick said:
The accident aircraft wasn't a 700, it was a 800A. I'm not typed in the Hawkers, but it is my understanding that the 800s have both a shaker and a pusher. I am typed in 5 bizjets and have over 10,000 hours in them. Based upon my experience flying Lears with both shakers and pushers, I just don't see a crew letting it get to that point. You'd have to be totally oblivious to what was going on. Sure, it's plausible, but on my list of likely scenarios, it's at or near the bottom. To me, the most likely scenario is that they simply descended below the MDA and got bit. I hear they recovered the CVR, my bet is that the recording will tell the tale.
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700 or 800....if the stall occurs before you get to the pusher, it doesn't really matter whether or not it's got one.
 
From the trajectory that the plane appears to have in the surveilance video, I expected to see a long trail of debri at the crash site - footage of the site seems show a very small footprint. Is that embankment that steep?
 
MauleSkinner said:
700 or 800....if the stall occurs before you get to the pusher, it doesn't really matter whether or not it's got one.
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I know it's not an exact science, but the pusher is suppose to prevent the stall.
 
WBI Flyer said:
From the trajectory that the plane appears to have in the surveilance video, I expected to see a long trail of debri at the crash site - footage of the site seems show a very small footprint. Is that embankment that steep?
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My instructor told me that KAKR is in a valley, and the area has some low terrain based on some friends that I have who live there. I trained in part on that approach, and it is a "slam dunk" that local CFII's like to throw at students.
 
Kritchlow said:
I know it's not an exact science, but the pusher is suppose to prevent the stall.
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True...but how do you know if the pusher occurs before the stall if the test doesn't get that far?

I'm not saying that's the cause, but it's certainly no less likely than anything else at this point.
 
MauleSkinner said:
True...but how do you know if the pusher occurs before the stall if the test doesn't get that far?
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Not sure I follow you.. I know there is some sort of algorithm built into the AOA that determines when to push the nose down to prevent a stall. Part of our preflight test was to ensure we could manually over power this.
 
Kritchlow said:
Not sure I follow you.. I know there is some sort of algorithm built into the AOA that determines when to push the nose down to prevent a stall. Part of our preflight test was to ensure we could manually over power this.
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The AOA is referenced from where the wing SHOULD stall, but certain maintenance on the leading edges can change the stall characteristics without a corresponding change in the stall warning systems. Hence the flight test requirement I mentioned, which still doesn't verify accuracy of the pusher AOA.
 
MauleSkinner said:
The AOA is referenced from where the wing SHOULD stall, but certain maintenance on the leading edges can change the stall characteristics without a corresponding change in the stall warning systems. Hence the flight test requirement I mentioned, which still doesn't verify accuracy of the pusher AOA.
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That's true... Indeed it's not an exact science. But, one would hope it's pretty close on this level of airplane.
I'm not saying a stall is not the reason. I'm just saying we don't know. He could have hit something, could have been a flight control failure, he could have had a seizure, and so on.... We just can't tell from that video. Hopefully it will be one piece of the puzzle for the experts.
 
Holy smokes Hot Pockets saved a life.
 
oilburner said:
Human component of this tragedy

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3313319/Recovery-efforts-begin-jet-crash-site-Ohio.html
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This is pretty much what happened in the crash I was affected by and mentioned in my post above. You can't imagine the surreal horror of attending multiple funerals of people you grew up with all within a two day period and trying to help the families collapsing from grief.

Earlier this year a milestone anniversary of the crash occurred, and I made a special effort to contact the surviving family members to let them know they are still in my thoughts.

Unless he is not in town, one of my friends who lost his mom in the crash has placed flowers on her grave every Saturday morning for thirty years.

The pain doesn't diminish for some folks, and this one is going to hurt for a long time.
 
Kritchlow said:
I saw that, but I don't think it really tells us much. Hopefully it will be useful to the investigation.
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It tells us the aircraft was intact and in an unusual attitude just before impact. (Investigators should also be able to calculate its ground speed from the video.)
 
Another stall on landing accident was circuit city flight up in Colorado somewhere in a citation 500 series. They let that one get slow on approach.
 
Could this be as simple as incorrect pressure setting in kollsman?
 
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Badger said:
Could this be as simple as incorrect pressure setting in kollman?
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With a 400-600' ceiling, there should have been plenty of time to notice the problem after breaking out of the clouds.

Besides, ATC didn't complain about their altitude until that point, and they're unlikely to have abruptly made a large incorrect change in their altimeter setting.
 
acrophile said:
With a 400-600' ceiling, there should have been plenty of time to notice the problem after breaking out of the clouds.

Besides, ATC didn't complain about their altitude until that point, and they're unlikely to have abruptly made a large incorrect change in their altimeter setting.
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agree.
I was just thinking even a 300 foot error coupled with the power lines might put them in a bad place.
RIP
 
acrophile said:
With a 400-600' ceiling, there should have been plenty of time to notice the problem after breaking out of the clouds.

Besides, ATC didn't complain about their altitude until that point, and they're unlikely to have abruptly made a large incorrect change in their altimeter setting.
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I copied this from another board. Not saying this is what happened, but it sounds like the airport in question can have some strangle cloud/ceiling anomalies:

As I recall from my days in that area, funny things happen with the fog there. The airport is sorta in a bowl, where it socks down tight to the ground, or hangs a bit above the airport. Has something to do with winds and surface temps, not just currents, but whether the ground was frozen or not. Lots a small lakes in the area. I know it happened to me once that you'd get a peek at the runway a ways out, but it was a "over the one layer and under the other" situation if that makes sense. So if you weren't careful, you'd start down and then get low trying to keep it in sight. Rwy 25 has a down-sloping hill to the runway that messes with you in low visibility after you break out too (or maybe it just messes with me).
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Possible that they had the runway in sight at some point, got suckered and then lost it. Don't know, hopefully the CVR will shed some light.
 
Badger said:
agree.
I was just thinking even a 300 foot error coupled with the power lines might put them in a bad place.
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True. But the only nearby power lines I see are the street's utility lines, which appear to be only as tall as the houses and trees.
 
Fearless Tower said:
Possible that they had the runway in sight at some point, got suckered and then lost it. Don't know, hopefully the CVR will shed some light.
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Yup, that could certainly do it. The CVR has been recovered, so we may find out soon.
 
The elevation at the impact area is ~ 1200MSL versus TDZE of 1050. So he was about 300' below minimums and 1100' lower than the LOM crossing height just 1.7 - 2 nm behind him.

So he was slightly more than half way between the LOM and the runway, just about where the plate profile shows a level off at MDA. Why the big dive at the LOM, assuming he was on profile outside the marker?
 
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