Have aircraft sales/transactions slowed?

[ArrowFlyer86]

I routinely watch controller/trade-a-plane and a hand full of aircraft broker websites. Most of the time to day-dream about buying my dream plane, and other times just to see how the market is doing. Usually just keep an eye on inventory counts and any planes that move to "SOLD".

I haven't seen as many sales as I'm accustomed to seeing this time of year, and I'm wondering if there's a bit of a slowdown in transactions? Or if there's just sampling error on my behalf and I'm looking at the wrong data. Could just be my imagination, but given how much prices have risen the last few years, and how the markets aren't doing amazing at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if that caused a slow-down. But still not sure if I'm just looking at the wrong info. Speaking specifically about single engine piston, not business jets or anything.

Anyone more plugged into the market have a view on this, or know of a website/datasource that tracks sales?

 

[AA5Bman]

From this layman's POV, yes, I totally see the same thing. I watch the 206 market like a hawk. Prices have gotten to the point where I really don't plan to upgrade anymore, but they're kinda my favorite. I primarily look at trade-a-plane, and forever there were only between 35 and 40 for sale at any given time. Today there are over 50 for sale, 52 I think last time I checked, and a lot of them are hanging around and not going away as I would normally expect. I called the peak in a different thread and still am taking that position.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

From this layman's POV, yes, I totally see the same thing. I watch the 206 market like a hawk. Prices have gotten to the point where I really don't plan to upgrade anymore, but they're kinda my favorite. I primarily look at trade-a-plane, and forever there were only between 35 and 40 for sale at any given time. Today there are over 50 for sale, 52 I think last time I checked, and a lot of them are hanging around and not going away as I would normally expect. I called the peak in a different thread and still am taking that position.

Thanks. I missed that posting but looks like we're feeling the same way. Interest rates are another good point...

 

[Racerx]

From this layman's POV, yes, I totally see the same thing. I watch the 206 market like a hawk. Prices have gotten to the point where I really don't plan to upgrade anymore, but they're kinda my favorite. I primarily look at trade-a-plane, and forever there were only between 35 and 40 for sale at any given time. Today there are over 50 for sale, 52 I think last time I checked, and a lot of them are hanging around and not going away as I would normally expect. I called the peak in a different thread and still am taking that position.

52 listings on trade a plane for a 206. Of those 16 are wanted or sold. 21 are 2003 and newer. Exactly 3 under 200k

I look at what's available in the Cherokee 140 and Cherokee 180 and the cheapest decent example is around 60k. Now, I didn't see what the 206 market was at it's "peak". But anything in the pa32 airframe is snatched up in hours.

 

[Ventucky Red]

I am seeing some models slow down and others (172 for instance) flying (pun) off the shelve.

Overall though, I do agree that market is slowing a little and this is the time of year it usually lights up.

 

[Rcmutz]

Rubbing my hands together as a buyer with cash, ready to rock and roll! Maybe about 6 more months to see how low can they go.

 

[wheaties]

Part of that is we're still in peak pricing range. Much like houses in 2004, I would not expect a change to occur for another few years.

 

[Llewtrah381]

Part of that is we're still in peak pricing range. Much like houses in 2004, I would not expect a change to occur for another few years.

You may be right but I’m betting when interest rates go up in the VERY near future it won’t take long for a cascade of events to happen which will include a significant lowering of prices for aircraft, boats, RVs, and other discretionary stuff. Just a non-economist’s hunch…

 

[NicoleW]

This is from a "layman's" point of view. Planes (I've been watching the single pistons and turboprop) have been on for longer. However, I'm still waiting, as cycles occur too.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Thanks for starting this thread, Tom.

Has the market been a bloated, billowing bubble? It sure seems like it. Maybe some of the following factors have been driving the steep price increases that we've witnessed over the past 2 years.

Inventory and fleet attrition: Many too many airplanes have been allowed to rot-away to junk. Major weather events have sent a lot of airplanes to the boneyards. Some perfectly airworthy airplanes are being parted-out, as they are more valuable as used parts. All airplanes eventually wear out, and a (small) few are life-limited in some way. And sadly, we are still crashing far too often.

Pandemic: Covid made the argument for traveling in your own airplane more appealing to many who would otherwise consider it cost-prohibitive. Some folks held onto airplanes that they might otherwise have sold, while others went shopping.

Value proposition: The cost of new aircraft is just flat-out insane. Oh sure, they have always been expensive, but $450k for a new 172 is just [expletive deleted]! Especially so considering the fact that in 1970 a new 172 sold for about $85k (in 2021 dollars) whereas in 2021 a new 172 cost about $450k (and despite that huge increase in cost the new 172 can’t do much of anything that the old 172 could not do). Meanwhile the prospect of buying a new Cirrus, now pushing a million bucks, makes spending $300k on a 50-year-old F33 Bonanza seem not such a bad deal. I recently saw a Cessna 185 advertised for $700k, a figure so outrageous that it makes no sense at all to me even in this crazy seller’s market, but maybe it will make sense to someone.

Discretionary wealth: Apparently there are people who have a lot of money and they are not afraid to spend it on old airplanes.

Maybe change is in the wind. As Tom, AA5Bman, and Llewtrah suggested, the market is facing downward pressure from higher interest rates; inflation ($8 gas…gah!); a decrease in the value of stocks and certain investments; and apprehension and uncertainty brought on by world events etc. I think AA5Bman called it correctly: the peak may well have occurred in March. Already, inventory seems to be increasing a bit. It will be interesting to see what actually does happen. Let’s just hope that those who have been dropping exorbitant amounts of money on old airplanes will also spend generously to maintain them.

-Roger

 

[Jim K]

Add in that the government cheese so lavishly handed out the last couple years is over, and we are one quarter of negative growth away from officially being in recession. I'd say the top is in, and the only question is how far prices will be able to fall in the face of rampant inflation.

 

[luvflyin]

Add in that the government cheese so lavishly handed out the last couple years is over, and we are one quarter of negative growth away from officially being in recession. I'd say the top is in, and the only question is how far prices will be able to fall in the face of rampant inflation.

Yup. And a lot of that cheese was handed out way up the food chain albeit the intent was to help those down the chain. A lot of folk were spending it on food, clothing and shelter. Some got to spend it on toys. It wasn’t only planes. Demand, ergo prices, for all kinds of toys soared during that period. It was a case of the cheesy got cheesier.

 

[PaulS]

I follow cirrus, specifically the 22s, a couple weeks ago there were maybe less than 50 on Controller, today there is 185+. I suspect many are highly leveraged, bought when gas was <$4 a gallon. Now at $6+ a gallon it's getting tough to run those fuel pigs.

This economy sucks, gas is much higher than it should be, supply chains are squeezed off. Lycoming just apparently announced that if you need a cylinder or mag for a SR-20 G6 you are SOL, back ordered indefinitely.

 

[Hector Parra]

I've been following the "under $100K" market for the past 2 years. Looks like prices are cooling down, but I suspect that when it somehow stabilizes, prices will be higher than pre-pandemic. Not just because inflation, but because sellers will still want some more bang for their buck.

 

[AlleyCat67]

Add in that the government cheese so lavishly handed out the last couple years is over, and we are one quarter of negative growth away from officially being in recession. I'd say the top is in, and the only question is how far prices will be able to fall in the face of rampant inflation.

I'd say falling prices is an indicator that asset inflation may be easing, as most economists predicted it would. Fuel is a different story...

 

[DFH65]

On the airplanes I have been watching they are either on the market longer or the prices are coming down or both but nothing drastic.

 

[pfarber]

Experimental category will take off. There are lots of inventory from the 70s-90s that will soon come up for sale.

The RV market will fill in the XC segment and most old certificated AC will simple rot as parts get rediculiously hard to find.

 

[bcool]

I don't think it's cooled off yet...I just closed on the sale of my Archer. It hit Trade A Plane at 9:30am last Monday and we had a buyer lined up by 10:00am the same day. And for almost 2x what I paid for it in 2015.

This market is nuts! For once, though, things worked out in my favor...I usually take a bath selling all my large assets

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Thanks for everyone's comments. Sounds like there's kind of a consensus in the group that used prices are unlikely to go THAT much higher, if at all.

I agree with @pfarber that experimental category is likely to take off. I own a certified aircraft but I see some significant advantages now in moving to experimental (largely mx $, and purchased $/value tradeoff). It helps that there's a number of experimental that go fast, fast, fast !

I do wonder about where the market will be for new 172s. I was talking to the marketing head at a local flight school and he mentioned how they're in a bit of a pickle over the next few years, as they have to begin replacing their aging 172 fleet but they absolutely cannot justify sinking 500k per-plane into aircraft that will be flown by students who beat the hell out of 'em (and they have to replace about 10 of them). I imagine quite a few flight schools are in a similar boat. Personally, I think that supports the LSA/experimental market (though I'm not well read on the restrictions for using experimental for flight schools). LSAs have the advantage that with fuel prices where they're at, 4-6gph presents some attractive savings over the course of training.

Also, I'm still blown away whenever I see Cirrus prices. I don't know what world people live in where they think dropping $1m+ on a new SR22, or $600k+ for a used one is a good value. Sure they're new, sleek and have nice gadgets, but you're paying FULL price and the operational costs for these are not low (I'd love to hear a differing opinion from someone who owns a new one). Total anecdotal evidence on Cirrus but I was doing an owner-assisted oil change at my home airport and there were 2 cirrus parked out front, both SR22. The mechanic had told me that one guy broke the fairings on his sr22 during a hard landing and had kept the plane parked on his ramp for a while as he raised some money to replace them (mech was kind of ****ed b/c it was taking the guy a while). Genuinely curious how you can justify buying a half million+ dollar airplane if you can't afford to fix fairings? Talk about a liquidity crunch. That phenomenon is of course not unique to Cirrus.

The other plane needed an overhaul, at which point he let me know that the SR22 OH was easily going to cost more than the entire value of my 1972 piper arrow . (I don't mean to say that a '72 Arrow is equivalent to a 2010+ Cirrus, but I'm willing to make a hell of a lot of compromises to save many hundreds of thousands of dollars! That's just me though.)

I'm sure some people have that kind of money and can properly afford it, and that's wonderful. But as a finance professional I can't help but suspect a lot of people buying these planes are highly overleveraged, and probably making a gamble that the good times won't ever end. When the good times do end, because they always do, I imagine there's going to be people looking to unload their unwise, stretched purchases.

 

[Tantalum]

I suspect many are highly leveraged

I agree.. or at least many more than you would think are leveraged. I've always been private about what I earn, but some people in my generation are not (millennial ugh) and I have peers who are very upfront about what they take home and I can't really figure out how they live the lifestyle they do

This economy sucks

It sure does! Things are evolving fast though https://www.housingwire.com/article...ation-projection-forecasts-recession-in-2023/

An interesting indicator to follow is credit card debt, which has been steadily rising, saw a dip, but rocketed up towards the end of last year. Delinquencies are very low, but that debt is piling on, rates are rising, and additionally many folks became very heavily leveraged in the housing market last year. The average down payment people are putting down is around $25K.. compare that to median home price of $400K and people are putting down crazy low percentages.. close to 5%. That payment works out to about $3,000 to $3,600 per month when all is said and done.. assume $75K median household income, or about $5K per month after tax.. and the numbers just don't work out. I must be missing something, because the math doesn't work. Median 401K balance for most first time home buyers age group is about $13K to $35K. I don't get it, surely something has to give?

 

[Rcmutz]

I don't think it's cooled off yet...I just closed on the sale of my Archer. It hit Trade A Plane at 9:30am last Monday and we had a buyer lined up by 10:00am the same day. And for almost 2x what I paid for it in 2015.

This market is nuts! For once, though, things worked out in my favor...I usually take a bath selling all my large assets

Don’t forget to pay your capital gains taxes on the sale of your capital asset.

 

[pfarber]

ompare that to median home price of $400K

No sane person making sub $150-200k a year should ever consider a $400k house.

Houses are worth exactly what someone will pay for them and right now its emotional and panic buying not actual value.

AC prices are a little more realistic as there literally is only x,y and z of planes left in the certificated world.

 

[Chrisgoesflying]

I'm up in Canada so things might be a bit different, but one thing I noticed here is, sellers are very stubborn about prices but don't necessarily end up selling their planes for overly inflated prices. On the other hand, the good deals and the realistic market deals go fast. Few examples:

Some guy had a Commander Darter for sale. Engine TBO'd, basic older VFR panel, overall shape maybe a 6/10. He wanted something like $50k, then went down to $40k, then down to $30k and then the listing was gone. I thought he finally sold it at $30k. Two months later, the plane popped back up with the same spiel and then disappeared again. Wonder if he finally sold it or if it's going to be up for sale in a few months again.

Last fall, when I was looking for a Cherokee, I saw a listing for a 1967 Cherokee. Mid time engine, 12,000 hours TTAF, overall shape maybe 6/10 as well. Guy's asking price was $60k. I didn't think it's worth that much, contacted the seller to gauge his flexibility which was non-existent. The plane stayed for sale for another two months and then disappeared. I thought he finally sold it but low and behold, just two days ago, the same plane popped up for sale by the same owner, once again for $60k.

I see the same thing happening with Cessna 150s, 172s, and pretty much any other SEL airplane. It seems like aircraft prices are super inflated right now, but I doubt many of them actually change hands at the inflated prices, at least up here north of the border.

On the other hand, when there are good deals, they go really fast. Saw a Cessna 172 for sale, TBO'd engine, fresh annual, asking price $25k. I called the seller a day after he posted the plane and it was gone already. Same story with a Piper Tri-Pacer, one popped up for sale for $25k, mid time engine, metal wings. Gone within a few days.

Myself, I bought a 1966 Cherokee, with a low time engine, overall shape 4/10 (nice outside, not so nice inside) for $35k. Sure, I ended up spending another $5k and some sweat equity to fix a few things and put a new interior in but I think I got it at a good price all things considered. I contacted the seller within two hours of him posting the plane and he already had 12 inquiries. I was the first with cash in hand so ended up getting it.

 

[Tantalum]

No sane person making sub $150-200k a year should ever consider a $400k house.

Houses are worth exactly what someone will pay for them and right now its emotional and panic buying not actual value.

AC prices are a little more realistic as there literally is only x,y and z of planes left in the certificated world.

No sane person *should*, but people are..

Free or very cheap money was easy to come by and people loaded up, drove prices up, and well here we are..

 

[TCABM]

…Lycoming just apparently announced that if you need a cylinder or mag for a SR-20 G6 you are SOL, back ordered indefinitely.

Is that for the 390 motor? Oof. That’s going to hurt the RV-14 builders who’re complaining about year+ motor backlogs already.

 

[hindsight2020]

Lyco 390 cylinders (no aftermarket supplement) have always been unobtanium, even pre-pandemic.. Biggest false economy to come out from the brain trust at Lyco since perhaps when they decided to let their competitor build and supply them with this so called ignition system, called the siamese mags. Hoodwinked straight out of a Bugs Bunny cartoon.

 

[mondtster]

Lyco 390 cylinders (no aftermarket supplement) have always been unobtanium, even pre-pandemic..

It isn't just a problem with 390 cylinders either. Lycoming's MO for numerous cylinder kits has been "we'll build them when we feel like it" for years now. People just assume that everything is as easy to get parts for as a parallel valve 320 or 360 but that's not the case.

Of course, covid and the aftermath of it hasn't helped matters.

 

[JVerb]

I'm just ready for them to drop again. Paying $70k for a clapped out Piper 140 is insane.

 

[TCABM]

I don’t know if prices are going to drop much once the market softens up, the genie has been let out of the bottle. Pristine examples will still command top (inflated) dollars and bottom of market carcasses will stagnate and we’ll post saws about pricing to sell vs telling the wife it’s on the market and minutes On market will turn to days, then months on market for average examples.

I do wonder if there will end up being a bifurcated market though with a gap between steam vs upgraded panels being the dividing line.

 

[Terry M - 3CK (Chicago)]

Yup. And a lot of that cheese was handed out way up the food chain albeit the intent was to help those down the chain. A lot of folk were spending it on food, clothing and shelter. Some got to spend it on toys. It wasn’t only planes. Demand, ergo prices, for all kinds of toys soared during that period. It was a case of the cheesy got cheesier.

Maybe yes. But, anecdotally, driving through some less cheesy working class areas I’ve been struck by the number of new bass boats, new snowmobiles and wicked shiny home improvement stuff (chain saws and lawn mowers etc.).

A big part of this, as I’ve heard from customers, was the rent moratorium too. Dollars that would have went to pay the rent went to make skidoo payments.

I don’t see too many as being left out here, with lots of benefits to working class folks.

 

[Jim K]

Maybe yes. But, anecdotally, driving through some less cheesy working class areas I’ve been struck by the number of new bass boats, new snowmobiles and wicked shiny home improvement stuff (chain saws and lawn mowers etc.).

A big part of this, as I’ve heard from customers, was the rent moratorium too. Dollars that would have went to pay the rent went to make skidoo payments.

I don’t see too many as being left out here, with lots of benefits to working class folks.

I wish I wanted the kind of crap poor people buy when they get money, as the repo men will be busy the next couple years. Maybe there'll be good buys on slightly used pickup trucks. The transmission is acting up in my rusty old suburban.

 

[Racerx]

Maybe yes. But, anecdotally, driving through some less cheesy working class areas I’ve been struck by the number of new bass boats, new snowmobiles and wicked shiny home improvement stuff (chain saws and lawn mowers etc.).

A big part of this, as I’ve heard from customers, was the rent moratorium too. Dollars that would have went to pay the rent went to make skidoo payments.

I don’t see too many as being left out here, with lots of benefits to working class folks.

As a landlord that rent moratorium was absurd. Bad things happen. It sucks. But I've still got property taxes to pay. Put a moratorium on property taxes and see how the government likes it. I was fortunate enough to have decent people as tenants.

To go one further, people took advantage of forbearance. Whether they realize the ramifications or not. Girl that works for me decided to take advantage of forbearance despite her hours and wages not being impacted in any way. Just decided to be a POS.

To add-on: now we want to forgive x amount of student loan debt. I'm sorry you signed on the dotted line to go to school to theoretically earn more than me. Now with a useless degree and debt you realize how money works and want someone else to pay for it. What about me who didn't see college as a fit, went to trade school, busted my hump and owned 2 homes before I was 25 and the only debt I had was a mortgage. Do I get 50k? I could really use it. It would be spent almost immediately. My poor plane is still full of Narco stuff

 

[luvflyin]

Maybe yes. But, anecdotally, driving through some less cheesy working class areas I’ve been struck by the number of new bass boats, new snowmobiles and wicked shiny home improvement stuff (chain saws and lawn mowers etc.).

A big part of this, as I’ve heard from customers, was the rent moratorium too. Dollars that would have went to pay the rent went to make skidoo payments.

I don’t see too many as being left out here, with lots of benefits to working class folks.

Yeah, that to. That would be in keeping with the ‘stimulus’ in Stimulus Checks. Let’s stimulate the economy by gettting out there and buying stuff and keep the people making and selling that stuff working. Lotsa pieces to the puzzle. Stimulus checks. Rent moratoriums. Extra unemployment benefits. People very capable of paying their rent, but just taking advantage of the system and not doing so. Very capable of working but not doing so because of windfall unemployment benefits. But on the ends of the spectrum there was a, ‘class’ of people who were not dead beats, willing to work but couldn’t find it and were just trying to do the food/clothing/shelter thang. On the other end were folk rolling in dough who needed no stimulus to whom it all was just a big windfall of play money. And of course many somewhere in between the extremes. I saw on the sign at a restaurant, Wendys if I remember right. This was when things were starting to open up again. We give stimulus checks twice a month.

 

[jbDC9]

It isn't just a problem with 390 cylinders either. Lycoming's MO for numerous cylinder kits has been "we'll build them when we feel like it" for years now. People just assume that everything is as easy to get parts for as a parallel valve 320 or 360 but that's not the case.

Of course, covid and the aftermath of it hasn't helped matters.

Since new cylinders are unobtainium, some cylinder overhaul shops are getting overwhelmed and backed up; I dropped off a set of four nickel plated O-360-A1D jugs at a N Texas cylinder shop on 22 January. Just got notified that they’re on a UPS truck headed my way to be delivered tomorrow, 5 May. That’s 3 months and 14 days for what should be a “simple” cylinder overhaul. Apparently there are very few cylinder plating (chrome/nickel)shops in the country and they’re swamped, plus my nickel jugs were apparently a special case; then when the jugs were back from plating there were delays in getting new exhaust valves… by the time I get it all back together I’ll be at close to 5 months down time on my RV for just a top overhaul.

 

[Terry M - 3CK (Chicago)]

@luvflyin i agree. Lots of people do the right thing and get punished/have it harder. @Racerx lots of people exploit the system and take advantage of everyone else.

Definitely a complicated issue.

My take away . . . GA Airplanes are discretionary items. Inflation and rates are up. Economy will
Contract. Discretionary recreation items will be impacted.

IMO, the pace of GA fleet contraction hasn’t changed meaningfully. COVID gave a short-term boost in folks with time, money and interest to fly. I’m not convinced that’s sustainable. Even with the airline training going on.

 

[Walboy]

To add-on: now we want to forgive x amount of student loan debt. I'm sorry you signed on the dotted line to go to school to theoretically earn more than me. Now with a useless degree and debt you realize how money works and want someone else to pay for it.

What's even worse is that the politicians who are out buying votes with taxpayer money are adamant that the "gift" of loan foregiveness can be done by executive decree...no legislation, no debate. What's that say about the state of our republic?

If there is loan foregiveness, I wonder if a 1099 will be sent out for the taxable gift?

Hopefully I'm not straying into the spin zone. This just makes me sick as someone who saved to send kids to college and insisted they study something worthwhile.

 

[luvflyin]

As a landlord that rent moratorium was absurd. Bad things happen. It sucks. But I've still got property taxes to pay. Put a moratorium on property taxes and see how the government likes it. I was fortunate enough to have decent people as tenants.

To go one further, people took advantage of forbearance. Whether they realize the ramifications or not. Girl that works for me decided to take advantage of forbearance despite her hours and wages not being impacted in any way. Just decided to be a POS.

To add-on: now we want to forgive x amount of student loan debt. I'm sorry you signed on the dotted line to go to school to theoretically earn more than me. Now with a useless degree and debt you realize how money works and want someone else to pay for it. What about me who didn't see college as a fit, went to trade school, busted my hump and owned 2 homes before I was 25 and the only debt I had was a mortgage. Do I get 50k? I could really use it. It would be spent almost immediately. My poor plane is still full of Narco stuff

I’m a landlord with 6 tenants. I was lucky, no missed rent. But I am now suffering with the fallout from that era. Landlord Tenant law has recently taken some ugly turns in some areas. Some of it is due to some very greedy POS landlords that have been around for like ever. But a lot of it is because of how owners took it up the azz from POS parasites like your employee.

 

[Tantalum]

As a landlord that rent moratorium was absurd. Bad things happen. It sucks. But I've still got property taxes to pay. Put a moratorium on property taxes and see how the government likes it. I was fortunate enough to have decent people as tenants.

To go one further, people took advantage of forbearance. Whether they realize the ramifications or not. Girl that works for me decided to take advantage of forbearance despite her hours and wages not being impacted in any way. Just decided to be a POS.

To add-on: now we want to forgive x amount of student loan debt. I'm sorry you signed on the dotted line to go to school to theoretically earn more than me. Now with a useless degree and debt you realize how money works and want someone else to pay for it. What about me who didn't see college as a fit, went to trade school, busted my hump and owned 2 homes before I was 25 and the only debt I had was a mortgage. Do I get 50k? I could really use it. It would be spent almost immediately. My poor plane is still full of Narco stuff

We absolutely should not forgive the student loan debt outright especially not on the taxpayers dime! If they get a forgiveness what about mortgages, what about auto loans, what about credit card debt? Where do you draw the line

Student loans are some of the worst types of predatory lending. A ton of young impressionable adults are duped into huge debt.. "you are investing in your future" "you will make so much money you'll pay this off in no time!" and other lies for some bogus liberal arts major with a throw away degree. Everyone gets a small cut, the university gets a ton of money from the loan company, the loan people get your interest payment, and the student is left with a delusion and a mountain of debt. The fact that it is so easy to get a student loan without any meaningful collateral should be a big red flag

If they want to forgive this debt it should come from the tax-free endowments universities get and the private lenders who hand $100K loans out like candy.

 

[mondtster]

Since new cylinders are unobtainium, some cylinder overhaul shops are getting overwhelmed and backed up; I dropped off a set of four nickel plated O-360-A1D jugs at a N Texas cylinder shop on 22 January. Just got notified that they’re on a UPS truck headed my way to be delivered tomorrow, 5 May. That’s 3 months and 14 days for what should be a “simple” cylinder overhaul. Apparently there are very few cylinder plating (chrome/nickel)shops in the country and they’re swamped, plus my nickel jugs were apparently a special case; then when the jugs were back from plating there were delays in getting new exhaust valves… by the time I get it all back together I’ll be at close to 5 months down time on my RV for just a top overhaul.

Yeah, the overhaul shops are backed up too. I’ve been waiting on a crankcase I sent in at the beginning of November. Thankfully I had a set of cylinders for that engine already, or else it would be a nightmare to fix that engine.

Parts prices have shot up too. I had a cylinder overhauled a few months ago and the cost nearly doubled from the quote due to unexpected parts price increases.

It’s getting pretty crazy.

 

[Sifossifoco]

So let me try to sum this up... Prices are increasing, because of inflation, buyers are kind of decreasing because of money tightening. Inflation plus decreased demand = stagflation. It could be that the good airplanes will become more expensive in absolute terms because of inflation, and older, scruffier airplanes will just get abandoned with no buyer. I would love to buy an airplane, and have a reasonable budget for that, but I would rather wait a bit longer, right now.