GA Boom or Bust

[SoonerAviator]

I don't buy the idea that people think it's boring. I think it's a combination of lack of exposure and(probably moreso) it just plain being unaffordable for most people.



I also don't buy this idea that all young people want to do is stare at their iDevice and play video games all day.



I'm in my early 30s are are most of my friends...Several of my friends have indicated interest in it... only to be completely discouraged as soon as I start telling them what it really costs.



Most young people can't afford to drop $8-10k on a PPL before they even get started spending $300 to take their family out for cheeseburgers.



Yeah, it's cost guys. Cost cost cost.

100% in agreement. Exposure is a big part, but most all of those who've asked me about flying balk when they find out it takes $8-10K to simply earn the ticket. I make a decent living, but dropping $65K+ on a 40 year old aircraft is a tough nut to swallow when that comes out to 50% of my initial mortgage note. I also feel that, outside of the outrageous student loan debt, much of the younger generation seems to be more debt-conscious . . . at least in the circles I run in.


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[Dav8or]

Where the hell do you fly where the pilots are stone sober??

It's open bar at our hangar, pretty much every day.

Yeah, I thought beer was a required part of the post flight debrief and aircraft stowage. Am I doing it wrong??

 

[Dav8or]

Yeah, it's cost guys. Cost cost cost.

Agreed. I would also add lack of practical utility. People really do want a simple to operate vehicle on par with their cars, the same payload as their cars and the reliability of the airlines. It may be impossible, but they want it anyways.

 

[Henning]

After, that is no fun. People want to drink and recreate at the same time. Drink a beer, take the jetski for a spin, drink another beer, repeat.

You think that doesn't happen with airplanes?!? <sniff>

 

[Henning]

I agree with the statement GA is declining. I think the primary reason is cost, not lack of interest. It is difficult to justify paying for an airplane, hangar, annuals, maintenance, GPS updates, medicals, etc., etc., for 4 or 5 trips a year to the beach. Most people, especially younger people, have other more pressing demands on their discretionary money.

It's both. With more interest, more flying clubs would form. Clubs use the equipment much more efficiently than private ownership. Boats and planes are poor vehicles for the sole ownership model because lack of use multiplies your maintenance expenses. The cheapest 172s to operate are flight school ones that fly 400+ hours a year. Those are the ones that get 4000hrs out of engines.

If the interest was there, the market would develop, but we haven't generated that interest, and won't, until we add a much better social aspect to GA.

 

[Jim_R]

Texas got a boost when China bought the Permean.

China did not "buy the Permian". And Texas benefits from all the oil and gas recovery going on in the Permian, regardless of who extracts it. The fact that some land/mineral rights changed hands isn't a huge deal to the Texas economy.

 

[Henning]

China did not "buy the Permian". And Texas benefits from all the oil and gas recovery going on in the Permian, regardless of who extracts it. The fact that some land/mineral rights changed hands isn't a huge deal to the Texas economy.

Until they do like they do in Aus and bring in their own people to extract it, and then take it home as crude only paying the lessor their cut. The export regs are in the making right now to open up US oil to export.

 

[Jim_R]

My point is that everyone taking oil out of Texas does so for their own purposes, and only the lessor gets their cut. Texas economy benefits from jobs and taxes all the same regardless of who's doing the extraction, and once the oil is out of the ground it doesn't matter to Texas whose hands it ends up in.

Neither "China bought the Permian" nor "Texas got a big boost" from that are true statements.

 

[Henning]

$1.8 billion is a boost in any economy. Regardless, Texas won't exist in 5 years nor will the US, not as we know it now, we will be under Chinese rule, the whole new world.

 

[JoseCuervo]

$1.8 billion is a boost in any economy. Regardless, Texas won't exist in 5 years nor will the US, not as we know it now, we will be under Chinese rule, the whole new world.

Any sort of wager you would like to make on that?

 

[Henning]

Any sort of wager you would like to make on that?

What do you have in mind?

 

[JoseCuervo]

What do you have in mind?

Something like You charter an 80' for two weeks hauling me around the Caribe.

You win, I pay 2x the costs.

I win, you cover everything.




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[FastEddieB]

I went to see what dates the coming Sport Aviation Expo was in Sebring.

One of the slides that came up in rotation gives us an idea of the aging pilot population:

This was a seminar about Light Sport given by Prof. Paul Shuch.

Oh - and I'm in that photo - as grey as ever!

 

[Henning]

Something like You charter an 80' for two weeks hauling me around the Caribe.

You win, I pay 2x the costs.

I win, you cover everything.




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If I win, I collect nothing, but then the trip will cost me nothing, so sure.

 

[Dav8or]

I went to see what dates the coming Sport Aviation Expo was in Sebring.

One of the slides that came up in rotation gives us an idea of the aging pilot population:

This was a seminar about Light Sport given by Prof. Paul Shuch.

Oh - and I'm in that photo - as grey as ever!

Was there ever a time in history that GA was majorly populated by young men? It's always been expensive and the young have rarely had the money. I know I didn't.

 

[mohamedpac]

I have read that a big part of the pilot decline is that we haven't had any major conflicts in a while. Thousands of pilots came out of WWII, Korea and Vietnam with aircraft training when planes were cheaper, so it made sense. We haven't had a need for a conscription or huge force in decades, so no one is going the military pilot route. Drones aren't going to help.


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[Henning]

Was there ever a time in history that GA was majorly populated by young men? It's always been expensive and the young have rarely had the money. I know I didn't.

Post WWII, you had young men pilots returning, and younger men emulating them and training. Pretty much petered out in the 70s when the big cost escalation happened and cool planes had pointy noses and jet engines.

 

[Everskyward]

I went to see what dates the coming Sport Aviation Expo was in Sebring.



One of the slides that came up in rotation gives us an idea of the aging pilot population:

This was a seminar about Light Sport given by Prof. Paul Shuch.



Oh - and I'm in that photo - as grey as ever!

But this is what pilot seminars looked like in the 1980s too.

 

[denverpilot]

Part of it is that younger pilots probably aren't sitting through too many seminars these days, either. Plenty of online resources for that stuff, and by the time it hits an in-person seminar it's months or years out of date if you're keeping up with online aviation news and training materials.

 

[cowman]

I went to a fly-in once.... I was younger than everyone there by 3 or more decades and they all already knew each other so it was awkward.

 

[Dav8or]

I went to a fly-in once.... I was younger than everyone there by 3 or more decades and they all already knew each other so it was awkward.

Most fly ins are awkward. Pilots are opinionated, and often introverted. Basically most are odd ducks. You have to go more than once before they will accept you and then you become one of those that already knows everybody.

Age may play a part, but mostly I think it's just the way the pilot population is. It's also why most airports really aren't that inviting. Any strange person that approaches a pilot, or group of pilots is viewed with skepticism and caution.

There are even some pilots that like the pilot community being small and exclusive. These are the ones that actually still believe that the phrase "I'm a pilot" means anything to anyone anymore.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Most fly ins are awkward. Pilots are opinionated, and often introverted. Basically most are odd ducks. You have to go more than once before they will accept you and then you become one of those that already knows everybody.

Age may play a part, but mostly I think it's just the way the pilot population is. It's also why most airports really aren't that inviting. Any strange person that approaches a pilot, or group of pilots is viewed with skepticism and caution.

There are even some pilots that like the pilot community being small and exclusive. These are the ones that actually still believe that the phrase "I'm a pilot" means anything to anyone anymore.

This is all very true. What's sad is that instead of improving, it's becoming more so as time passes.

Mary and I try to counter these barriers with every fiber in our being, doing frequent movie nights and cookouts at our hangar, but it is an extreme uphill battle. Just getting someone out to our airport requires Google Maps, and then you have to find the right entrance, and then you must know the gate code.

Then you must find our mostly unmarked hangar, clustered in amongst dozens of other completely unmarked hangars. All of this serves to make our airport (McCampbell Airport, Ingleside, Texas, KTFP) an extremely foreign and unwelcoming place -- even though it is actually EXTREMELY friendly and lively once you penetrate those barriers.

And, of course, there are still the douchebags that act like WWII aces, scaring off all but the most determined student pilots. It never fails to amaze me how these guys can fail to appreciate that we desperately need to attract young adults to the airport.