Future of aircraft pricing, 6months to a year from now.....

@WDD , I am using a local to me broker, Brad Vidrine (Gulfair). He has provided me with excellent advice and education which helped me decide on which airframe and which models to consider within my budget. He redirected my thinking based upon my present 'mission' and we decided on a post '79 182 Q for the best bang for the buck. He scours sources in dry states and found one in Colorado that is two owner and owned 26yrs by the last maintained by a shop he is familiar with. He happened upon this plane in about 3 weeks. He will perform the inspection and can perform annuals/service in his facility. He is located in Jennings, La. The 7% fee is well worth his service IMO. Feel free to pm me for more information.

@Half Fast I had put in an offer for a 182RG that was the seventh offer in 72hrs and all the others were near asking and over! (I bid 10% below asking and the selling broker said most of the solid, reasonably priced for the current market aircraft are selling for asking. He said things were a little crazy at the moment.) My broker did find the market has seemed to peak in price and it is looking like a plateau at least. As far as auto racing... that was my last irrational hobby prior to this one. Started in karts with my son in the late 90's and moved into formula racing around 2004. The last cars we ran were getting a bit expensive to run and parts were from one source (spec class). I did get a quick education in carbon fiber repair though :rolleyes:. My current wife thinks this 'flying thing' is expensive. The last year of running only my son in a 13 race series cost over 500K but did include one tub and most of the other pricy bits courtesy of lap traffic on an oval...grrrr.
 
robin ardoin said:
As far as auto racing... that was my last irrational hobby prior to this one. Started in karts with my son in the late 90's and moved into formula racing around 2004. The last cars we ran were getting a bit expensive to run and parts were from one source (spec class). I did get a quick education in carbon fiber repair though :rolleyes:. My current wife thinks this 'flying thing' is expensive. The last year of running only my son in a 13 race series cost over 500K but did include one tub and most of the other pricy bits courtesy of lap traffic on an oval...grrrr.
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I road raced an RX-7 in SCCA’s Improved Touring category. @Ted has my old car now and is prepping it for Lemons racing. The only hobby that has cost me more money is my wife’s equestrian addiction. I should have married a cocaine addict instead.....
 
Country Flier said:
It’s not really by choice that makes people sell when the economy tanks…it’s people that buy aircraft with borrowed money, then when the economy tanks they have to choose between the mortgage (or food or kids college) and the airplane payment that forces the downward price cycle.
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A very smart investment broker once told me that stocks instantly reflect economic conditions, while real estate lags by 1-2 years. IMO same concept applies to airplanes. This is a good example why. People don't get forced to sell right away. They try to ride it out. It takes time for pressure to build up that makes selling at a loss unavoidable.
 
BTW, Trade-A-Plane broke 2000 single-engine listings today, which is a first as far as I'm aware.
 
If you look at piston aircraft production in the U. S., the recent peak year was 1978. (The absolute peak was 35,000 in 1946). Between 1947 and 1982, aircraft production was robust. Here's the average production per year, by decade:

1950s: 4,700
1960s: 10,400
1970s: 12,900
1980s: 3,200
1990s: 840
2000s: 1,800
2010s: 770

For 2021, there were 905 piston airplanes built in the U. S, plus 599 built by GAMA members in Europe. Please note two things, the more recent figures include some LSAs, and also of those US built aircraft, about half were Cirrus products, and mostly SR22s. Also for 2021, Piper cranked out 127 PA-28s, 15 Seminoles, and 19 M350s. Cessna built 166 Skyhawks, 38 Skylanes, and 50 206s. I would assume nearly all of the PA-28s went to flight schools, as did most of the Skyhawks. I'd also guess most of the 206s are now working airplanes, so outside of Cirrus, the U. S. industry is barely adding anything to the owner flown fleet. We're getting a few Diamonds and Tecnams, but it sure doesn't seem to be many. One more kicker: on the average about a third of U. S. production is exported.

On the demand side, the number of private pilots peaked in the early 1980's, and declined steadily until the middle of last decade, when it stabilized. As we all know, things happen to airplanes that take them out of the fleet. I have to think the actual airworthy fleet is shrinking in this country.

I hear comparisons here to the automobile, boat, and real estate market. Maybe a better comparison is something that there's a fixed supply of, like beachfront property. IMO, the only way there will be a significant reduction in airplane prices is if a significant chunk of the pilot population hangs up their headphones.
 
FormerHangie said:
…I hear comparisons here to the automobile, boat, and real estate market. Maybe a better comparison is something that there's a fixed supply of, like beachfront property...
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Continuing the analogy, there’s a percentage that’s short term rental/investment income units, a percentage timeshare, and a percentage wholly owned.

And then there’s the E-ABs which are a somewhat different beast altogether.
 
And I read this in this morning's news:

"Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000"...
 
There are several markets in aviation, so the answer varies. Prices will likely soften, but not for some time. But aviation medicals expire, and you never get back the memories you didn’t create. If you can afford it, get a good plane now. If you are like most, it will probably be a good decision, and you will trade it in a few years for something faster, higher, bigger. But a good plane well cared for won’t lose much value.
 
I think training airplanes and older “affordable planes” will keep their value. There isn’t an infinite supply of Cherokees, 172’s, etc. There won’t be precipitous drops in price. Gas hogs and twins might sit a while.

The above being said, who the heck knows…
 
Dan Gordon said:
I think training airplanes and older “affordable planes” will keep their value. There isn’t an infinite supply of Cherokees, 172’s, etc. There won’t be precipitous drops in price. Gas hogs and twins might sit a while.

The above being said, who the heck knows…
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Many (but not all) of the light twins are "Free". The airframe that is - has nearly zero value. The airplane is worth the sum of the engine's values and the value of the avionics stack.
 
I think current inflated aircraft prices have dragged lots of sellers into the market to see what they might get. When plane sales slow only the guys motivated to sell will lower prices. It’ll be interesting.
 
Half Fast said:
I road raced an RX-7 in SCCA’s Improved Touring category. @Ted has my old car now and is prepping it for Lemons racing. The only hobby that has cost me more money is my wife’s equestrian addiction. I should have married a cocaine addict instead.....
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You hit all the non-heap sports/hobbies. :D

I race SRF in SCCA. Right now working on getting the money to upgrade car to Gen3. That is a $20K hit. But buying a Mooney has put the racing on hold for a bit.
 
Pinecone said:
You hit all the non-heap sports/hobbies. :D

I race SRF in SCCA. Right now working on getting the money to upgrade car to Gen3. That is a $20K hit. But buying a Mooney has put the racing on hold for a bit.
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IT is a regional class, and I have a good friend who raced SRF at the national level. We used to help each other out on race weekends, since we seldom had events that conflicted. SRF was a fun class; lots of strategy involved since the cars were closely matched. And prep was extremely important, with lots of little details that could add up to just a tiny (but important!) advantage.
 
Rcmutz said:
I believe if we are into a recession by the end of the year, products will not be bought, employees who work for those companies will begin to be laid off, wages will stagnate, and demand will drop. On a macro level, when demand drops prices will lower. This along with high interest rates will soften the airplane purchase prices. Now, if we keep losing the more entry level older airplanes to accidents, supply will decrease, and May offset everything I just said when it comes to aircraft market. My guess is we will see prices coming down after the first of the year through the winter months. But come spring when demand begins to peak as it always does, prices my level back off, but I suspect lower than right now.
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100% agree.
 
Half Fast said:
We’ve had two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. Technically we already are in a recession.
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That's what I was taught too, but it seems that even economists are redefining the word 'recession' - they're mixing in unemployment and other variables.
I'm with you, not sure why there's question.
 
nj-pilot said:
That's what I was taught too, but it seems that even economists are redefining the word 'recession' - they're mixing in unemployment and other variables.
I'm with you, not sure why there's question.
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Yeah, I won’t touch that load of smoldering political BS. They’re just looking for excuses not to call a recession a recession.

The unemployment situation is distorted by the number of boomers (like me) leaving the job market. GDP shrinkage is the definition, and the conclusion is bolstered by runaway inflation, rising interest rates, and falling consumer confidence.
 
Found a PA32R for only 150k. So, I click on details. Yep. 150k is right...
...for a 1/4 share!
GTFO.

All other for a 100% stake are still upwards of 200.
 
Has anybody seen any first-hand evidence of layoffs of any scale?
 
I’m just curious for those who have said that prices are coming down, I’m not seeing it. If planes have been up there for a while it’s not like they’re reducing the prices. I personally am not seeing a downward trend but I’m also not tracking it too granularly.
 
eman1200 said:
I’m just curious for those who have said that prices are coming down, I’m not seeing it. If planes have been up there for a while it’s not like they’re reducing the prices. I personally am not seeing a downward trend but I’m also not tracking it too granularly.
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Who said prices are coming down (other than gas)? That’s deflation and I don’t see it with airplane prices, we’re just not making any more, and flying commercial sucks.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Has anybody seen any first-hand evidence of layoffs of any scale?
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Don't know about any other areas other than IT, in general. In my organization, we are having a very hard time retaining people on the IT side. Folks are jumping ship and getting massive bonuses and salary jumps. Seems like there are more jobs than people to fill them. Again, this is just my area of employment and may be specific to this area (Washington, DC metro area).
 
Deelee said:
Don't know about any other areas other than IT, in general. In my organization, we are having a very hard time retaining people on the IT side. Folks are jumping ship and getting massive bonuses and salary jumps. Seems like there are more jobs than people to fill them. Again, this is just my area of employment and may be specific to this area (Washington, DC metro area).
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The problem is, the new generation has gotten a taste of working from home, remotely. They are not willing to work traditionally, so most are shuffling from job to job looking only for remote work. In 10-15 years we will see the negative social impacts of remote work.
 
Rcmutz said:
The problem is, the new generation has gotten a taste of working from home, remotely. They are not willing to work traditionally, so most are shuffling from job to job looking only for remote work. In 10-15 years we will see the negative social impacts of remote work.
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We're already seeing it. It has exported rank housing displacement into every corner of the second/third metro tier US markets, and even Latin American countries via non-retiree expats doing it to Mexicans, Panamanians, Dominicans, Costa Ricans et al.

The laptop class is gonna have to learn to play well with the rest of the street. Fortunes change.
 
Half Fast said:
IT is a regional class, and I have a good friend who raced SRF at the national level. We used to help each other out on race weekends, since we seldom had events that conflicted. SRF was a fun class; lots of strategy involved since the cars were closely matched. And prep was extremely important, with lots of little details that could add up to just a tiny (but important!) advantage.
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I have raced some enduros with missed classes. IT7 are quick down the straight, and no tow off them. But once I got past, I was GONE in the twisty bits.

I raced regional and national.

My claim to fame is I actually won my class in an enduro.
 
WDD said:
If I buy a plane I’ll keep it until I can’t fly anymore. Which at that time and age I won’t care if I loose money in it. I’ll mentally put it into the bucket of buying a used car - you don’t expect to get your money back.
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Own a plane long enough and you never get your money back. Once you re-engine and/or go through a major avionics upgrade you’re forever be upside down. Thems the breaks!
 
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Pinecone said:
I have raced some enduros with missed classes. IT7 are quick down the straight, and no tow off them. But once I got past, I was GONE in the twisty bits.

I raced regional and national.

My claim to fame is I actually won my class in an enduro.
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Yep, in IT there's only so much you can do to a street car to make it handle well. We weren't allowed to tie the suspension mounting points into the cage, for example, so it was tough to get the chassis stiff enough. Also, with the driver not on centerline like in a SRF, the cars are inherently off balance, though we did use a few tricks to improve that.

I never got a win, but I was often in the top 5 of a ~20 car class. My best finish was 2nd in a race in the rain at Sebring.
 
Rgbeard said:
Many (but not all) of the light twins are "Free". The airframe that is - has nearly zero value. The airplane is worth the sum of the engine's values and the value of the avionics stack.
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Then it would make economic sense to start parting out engines and avionics and then selling the remaining plane for scrap. Yikes - that's depressing.


eman1200 said:
I’m just curious for those who have said that prices are coming down, I’m not seeing it. If planes have been up there for a while it’s not like they’re reducing the prices. I personally am not seeing a downward trend but I’m also not tracking it too granularly.
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Yep - I think they've stopped going up, maybe hitting a plateau
 
Bill said:
Own a plane long enough and you never get your money back. Once you re-engine and/or go through a major avionics upgrade you’re forever be upside down. Thems the breaks!
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I just sold one that I did an engine overhaul for in 2020. While you are 100% correct, if I factor in some (or a lot of) the mental benefit and stress reduction I got from owning the airplane, I think I about broke even. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! :)
 
I'm pretty sure that I've never thought of an airplane as an investment!
 
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