This accident is brutally sad and on the surface looks like it was a completely needless tragedy.
Like AZPilot I'm a fair only weather Pilot. So My chances are good I wont be in an accident. I don't take any chances because I have a family that counts on me.
I applaud those that can fly in IMC conditions. I leave that to the Professional pilots flying in a Airliner. I don't want to worry about IFR Clearance, Weather, Approaches ect ect when it comes to IFR flying. Too much work for something I just want to fly for fun and sight see.
In AZ, wind is also a major player. Getting an IR helps you understand weather much better, not just the obvious. Btw, weather forecasters have been known to be wrong, and situations can change. Because I have a family and friends that fly with me, I take all the additional training I can get, including IFR, EMT (Emergency Maneuver Training) and light acro.
Yesterday, I flew from N. Las Vegas, VGT, to Bullhead City, IFP. Wind at VGT was vari at 4. Less than 30 minutes in my plane, the wind at IFP was 23g29. No problem, but things changed quite a bit in a short distance. Fortunately, with my training came an opportunity for training in higher winds than I thought I was comfortable with. I have learned to fly the plane. I have also used my IR quite a few times flying into IFP. I won't go near t-storms, but vfr pilots are supposed to stay clear of the clouds, with various requirements. AZ does get clouds and rain, without t-storms.
Once you get complacent and think you will keep yourself out of anything bad that could possibly happen, that's when you get bit. Keep learning. There is a reason insurance companies give discounts for getting an IR.
Agree with hindsight2020 100%. I am taking my IFR check ride next week. But not so I can fly IMC to min. I will have high ceiling and visibility min. If I have to shoot an approach to min. I have screwed the pooch on my flight planning and weather briefing!
Forecasts/forecasters are wrong all the time. Weather is dynamic and changes all the time. Forecasts should be called guesses, at best. No matter how perfect a plan you think you have, once you have flown enough, it can and will change, sometimes surprisingly. I like to think my minimums are 1,000 ft. ceilings, winds under 40kts, only light rain, etc., but on a few rare occasions, I have encountered different conditions than was forecast when I took off. I carry onboard wx with XM. Great strategic tool. Not sure I would fly xc without it.
I am always prepared to just turn around, or land short of destination. I have done both, even one time it involved missing half of a pro football game that my I was flying my buddies to. They and especially their wives thanked me. A week or two later, a guy killed himself and his family flying the same area with similar wx. I have also cancelled flights and waited a day or two for better wx. I would much rather be on the ground, wishing I was in the air, than in the air, wishing I was on the ground. I understand mine and my airplane's limitations, and after just getting past 1,000 hours of flight time, I have learned a lot, and continue to learn. I also understand what wx conditions I don't need to fear.
Keep learning. Fly safe and fly the plane. Stay current and proficient. Because I can, doesn't mean I will.