End of the Learjet

Didn't Bill Lear have a daughter he named Crystal Shanda? Or maybe it was just Shanda
 
Piper18O said:
Didn't Bill Lear have a daughter he named Crystal Shanda? Or maybe it was just Shanda
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Truth. From Wiki:
"In 1941, Lear married his fourth wife, Moya Marie Olsen. They would have four children together: John Olsen Lear, Shanda, David and Tina.
Although Lear had a reputation for being difficult, he had a sense of humor, as evidenced by naming his third daughter Shanda Lear"
​
Pretty accomplished lady in her own right:
https://sandpointreader.com/learjet-familys-daughter-to-speak-at-bird-museum/
 
Arnold said:
I was there. I was young and don't remember much detail. As I recall it was the early Lear's and their "coffin corner" flight envelope that spurred the creation of Flight Safety.
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No, FlightSafety was around for a decade before the Lears came along.
 
Bell206 said:
It was. I don't think Lear will disappear completely only eventually change owners as Bombardier circles the drain on the aviation side. The family that owns Bomba made a few missteps when bringing the C Series jet to market and racked up a considerable debt, mainly owed to the Canadian government. Wouldn't be surprised if Lear picked up by some familiar names in the industry.
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This. I worked there on the 85 and was laid off at the end when they killed it. Having three clean sheet design aircraft (Lear 85, Global 7000/8000 and C-Series) was an insane undertaking. Combine that with really dumb management decisions and there are some great case studies to be done on Bombardier over the last 10ish years. The fate of Learjet was sealed before last week but it is still sad for those of us that have called it home.
 
Not a surprise considering they have been selling of some of their mfg facilities to Sprint Aero recently
 
Bell206 said:
It was. I don't think Lear will disappear completely only eventually change owners as Bombardier circles the drain on the aviation side. The family that owns Bomba made a few missteps when bringing the C Series jet to market and racked up a considerable debt, mainly owed to the Canadian government. Wouldn't be surprised if Lear picked up by some familiar names in the industry.
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It's highly improbable another aviation manufacturer will buy the Learjet assets. First of all, who? The companies that have the expertise to build business jets won't do it. What's the point of cannibalizing their own sales to produce a dozen units (2019) of a jet that was being outsold by Phenom 300 models four to one? Looking outside those manufacturers, I doubt any company would look at acquiring Lear, as it's a money losing proposition.

The buyer of Learjet would have to assume significant debt. The capital acquisition costs and startup expenses to put the aircraft back in production would produce eye watering losses. Any new debt issued by the nascent firm would be costly and carry substantial risk. It's likely support of the existing fleet would create further losses.

The total business aviation market was down almost 40% last year, and it appears 2021 isn't going to be much better, if at all. There are external factors in play as well. Regardless of the actual facts, foreign governments have identified aviation as a gross carbon emitter whose emissions are to be drastically curtailed. In the US, installment of an administration that intends to force oil prices higher, impose carbon penalties on firms that consume it, and increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy, will have further negative impacts on business aviation and the sale of jet aircraft.

While the Learjet is slightly faster than its counterparts (Mach .81 vs .77-.78), the Part 25 Liberty 75 requires two crew members; the Part 23 Phenom 300, CJ3, and PC-24, are all single pilot, and have lower operating costs than the 75. The merits of Part 25 vs Part 23 can be debated, but single pilot capability allows the owner/operater better choices.

All of these factors clearly point to the permanent demise of Learjets.
 
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3393RP said:
First of all, who?
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Possibly Textron. They were past possible suitors. And nobody said they were going to produce new Lears. The support side of the existing global fleet is rather tempting. As to the finances the debt load is bombardiers and not Lears. Time will tell.
 
Bell206 said:
Possibly Textron. They were past possible suitors. And nobody said they were going to produce new Lears. The support side of the existing global fleet is rather tempting. As to the finances the debt load is bombardiers and not Lears. Time will tell.
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The Learjet worldwide fleet is diminishing rapidly as newer, more efficient designs come to the fore. The legacy fleet is expensive to operate. Historically, the Lear 75 has been losing about 55% of its value after five years. Once they are depreciated, they have been sold by operators and replaced with a competitor's aircraft. Brand loyalty has all but disappeared.

Bombardier's revenues below are from left to right 2019, 2020, and profit (loss). As you can see, in 2020, all business aircraft sales provided $5.58B in revenues, and other aviation services $985MM. That indicates all support and MRO activities were 17.5% of Bombardier's 2020 total revenues, declining from 23% of 2019 total revenues. There was no further breakdown of MRO revenue between Global, Challenger, and Learjet divisions, but it's probable Learjet is a small portion of it. Profitability of the sector was not provided in their annual report, but aviation services revenue declined 57% in 2020.

This shows the MRO portion of Bombardier's business operations are not significant, and the slice attributable to Learjet is probably not enough to attract a sale. They will keep that business, simply because no one else will want it.


Revenues
Business aircraft $5,593B $5,417B 3 %
Other aviation $895MM $2,084B (57) %
Total Revenues $6,488B $7,501B (14) %

The Learjet division has debt on the books, separate from the parent Bombardier's Global and Challenger divisions. Any sale of Learjet will include those liabilities as a discount against the physical, monetary, and goodwill assets of the division.

Textron chose to eliminate several models when Cessna and Beechcraft were consolidated. It would make no sense to take on production of the Learjet 75 and 70. Any sales would come at the expense of CJ3s and CJ4s, and the market has indicated the Learjets are substandard in comparison to other light jets, particularly Embraer's.
 
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The Lear 23/24 and 25 were like steering a shooting star, or climbing out on a rocket ship or, as I've heard someone else say, "Like being pasted on the front of a bullet." Somehow, the 35 and later models lost all the charisma despite being better airplanes. They didn't look as good or feel as good. Someone above mentioned the "coffin corner", but in my experience there was never any serious problem in that regard. Same old story of people with enough money to buy them, but too stingy to hire qualified pilots to fly them led to a bad reputation. When they came out with the 45, I thought it was a mistake. Too long and not high enough of a cabin. Not surprised at the end of the line, but I wish they could just repurpose the 23/24 and 25... with more fuel efficient engines.
 
3393RP said:
It would make no sense to take on production of the Learjet 75 and 70.
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FYI: as I stated above, there is no mention of producing new Lear jets. The support side of the business is/can be more lucrative than the production of new airframes. Just ask Airbus.
3393RP said:
The Learjet division has debt on the books, separate from the parent Bombardier's Global and Challenger divisions.
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With Bomba near the point of reorganization or complete collapse, that book debt will be dealt with as with any company in similar situations or during the fire sale to pay those debts. Plus nobody said anything about buying it today. Just look at how Textron waited to pick up Beech/Hawker basically debt free and at a substantial discount. ;)
 
Bell206 said:
...With Bomba near the point of reorganization or complete collapse, that book debt will be dealt with as with any company in similar situations or during the fire sale to pay those debts. Plus nobody said anything about buying it today. Just look at how Textron waited to pick up Beech/Hawker basically debt free and at a substantial discount. ;)
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^^^This

One does not have to buy the company. An asset purchase avoids the considerable potential liabilities of purchasing the actual legal entity (and greatly simplifies the DD).
 
dtuuri said:
The Lear 23/24 and 25 were like steering a shooting star, or climbing out on a rocket ship or, as I've heard someone else say, "Like being pasted on the front of a bullet." Somehow, the 35 and later models lost all the charisma despite being better airplanes. They didn't look as good or feel as good. Someone above mentioned the "coffin corner", but in my experience there was never any serious problem in that regard. Same old story of people with enough money to buy them, but too stingy to hire qualified pilots to fly them led to a bad reputation. When they came out with the 45, I thought it was a mistake. Too long and not high enough of a cabin. Not surprised at the end of the line, but I wish they could just repurpose the 23/24 and 25... with more fuel efficient engines.
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How very true. A couple more pieces of nostalgia. I'll never fly a fighter jet, but light and on a cold day the 25 sure seemed like one to me. A lot of things are crude by today's standards, noisy and a gas guzzler; but a great plane to fly. 100_8453[1].jpeg P1010071.jpeg Good times.
 
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