Economy 101

Keith Lane

Keith Lane

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Keith Lane
I try to understand the mechanics if the economy, really, I do try. But when people speak in tongues, how is one to decipher what is really going on? I offer this gem from Bloomberg.com

“Secular baseline portfolio positioning should minimize exposure to the negative impact of financial repression, hedge against higher inflation and currency depreciation and exploit the heightened differentiation in balance sheets and growth potentials,”

I started reading the article http://www.cnbc.com/id/43056225 about "Financial Repression coming to America" just to see what he meant, having read an earlier article from him on the markets missing the big picture on inflation, which I thought pretty good.
But now I think he's just gotten a graduate degree in Greenspan-Speak. :dunno:
 
It is just stilly doublespeak in order to sound like an "expert". Duh. It means buying safer investments with less volatility, period.
 
It is unsurprising that economists have their own language. Heads of state used to have soothsayers, who claimed supernatural means to tell the future. Now they have economists.
 
Economists have successfully predicted 6 of the last 3 recessions :)
 
mantakos said:
It took 3 minutes for this thread to get political...
-harry
Click to expand...

It was political when you started it, I was 3 minutes late.

The biggest lesson to learn in Economy 101 is don't trust your government. Because they will tell you what you want to hear until they get your vote, once in office they will do as they please.

The video I linked was more humor, than political, but demonstrates my point.
 
Tom-D said:
It was political when you started it, I was 3 minutes late.
Click to expand...
I didn't start this thread, which was about investing until you decided to make it about booger-flicking and partisan politics, a pastime which is welcomed here but in a partitioned area.
-harry
 
Keith Lane said:
“Secular baseline portfolio positioning should minimize exposure to the negative impact of financial repression, hedge against higher inflation and currency depreciation and exploit the heightened differentiation in balance sheets and growth potentials,”
Click to expand...

Buzzword BINGO!!!

What do I win?
 
mantakos said:
It took 3 minutes for this thread to get political...
-harry
Click to expand...

Tom-D said:
It was political when you started it, I was 3 minutes late.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure if you've been here as long as the three of us. you know by now I pretty much avoid politics like the plague. No Spin Zone for me, thank you.

It was not meant to be political, and If anyone took it that way, then they are misreading my intent. I just cannot understand why "experts" (and in the railroad business I supposedly "are" one), have to obfuscate the meaning of their words with language such as this. If anything it serves only to further alienate the "main street" guy from the Wall Street guys.
Why not just spit it out. "Buy less volatile stocks".
The same guy did a pretty good article which stated that Wall Street had lost sight of the big picture on inflation, ignoring consumer inflation and bemoaning the lack of inflation in the stock market. :mad2:

Here is my take, call it political if you want. I call it economic.
[rant]
It took $98 to fill my wife's minivan, and the Wall Street commodities brokers are crying because the price of oil has "plummeted" to below $100/barrel. There's a disconnect for you. I had a fellow church member in effect tell me to invest in the oil companies and shut up. Having a stock portfolio that contains oil stocks will not fill my car up to get me to work weekly.
[/rant]
 
An Economy Professor I occasionally fly with told me that 21st Century Ecomonics is pretty much at the place where Medicine was in the 16th Century.

"Lets try some leach's, that ought to work"

"Lets pump a few billion into the banks, that ought to work"

:)
Brian
 
The more incomprehensible business writing is, the more certain I am that the journalism major doesn't have any idea what he/she is saying.
 
Keith Lane said:
I'm pretty sure if you've been here as long as the three of us. you know by now I pretty much avoid politics like the plague. No Spin Zone for me, thank you.

It was not meant to be political, and If anyone took it that way, then they are misreading my intent. I just cannot understand why "experts" (and in the railroad business I supposedly "are" one), have to obfuscate the meaning of their words with language such as this. If anything it serves only to further alienate the "main street" guy from the Wall Street guys.
Why not just spit it out. "Buy less volatile stocks".
The same guy did a pretty good article which stated that Wall Street had lost sight of the big picture on inflation, ignoring consumer inflation and bemoaning the lack of inflation in the stock market. :mad2:

Here is my take, call it political if you want. I call it economic.
[rant]
It took $98 to fill my wife's minivan, and the Wall Street commodities brokers are crying because the price of oil has "plummeted" to below $100/barrel. There's a disconnect for you. I had a fellow church member in effect tell me to invest in the oil companies and shut up. Having a stock portfolio that contains oil stocks will not fill my car up to get me to work weekly.
[/rant]
Click to expand...

Which hurts the common family worse. inflation or taxes?

Which helps the stock more, inflation or a falling dollar?
 
brcase said:
An Economy Professor I occasionally fly with told me that 21st Century Ecomonics is pretty much at the place where Medicine was in the 16th Century.

"Lets try some leach's, that ought to work"

"Lets pump a few billion into the banks, that ought to work"

:)
Brian
Click to expand...

Actually the most honest Econ professor I met admitted that economics is all about philosophy, it's not a science. As he put it: "Any economics major learns at some point that it is not reproducible nor verifiable. You're dealing with people in mass groups. You might as well be trying to use Psychohistory. Anyone that claims economics is a science is a fraud or a self-deluding individual."
 
brcase said:
An Economy Professor I occasionally fly with told me that 21st Century Ecomonics is pretty much at the place where Medicine was in the 16th Century...
Click to expand...
Poppycock!

All can be foretold by consulting Moniac:


-harry
 
JesseD said:
Actually the most honest Econ professor I met admitted that economics is all about philosophy, it's not a science. As he put it: "Any economics major learns at some point that it is not reproducible nor verifiable. You're dealing with people in mass groups. You might as well be trying to use Psychohistory. Anyone that claims economics is a science is a fraud or a self-deluding individual."
Click to expand...

Economics is simply an attempt to mathematically model human behavior. And good luck with that.
 
Tom-D said:
The biggest lesson to learn in Economy 101 is don't trust your government. Because they will tell you what you want to hear until they get your vote, once in office they will do as they please.
Click to expand...

And don't trust any financial advisor or analyst that stands to make money at your expense. That includes one that may move the market or profit from trades made on your behalf. Remember that stock brokers get paid for buying/selling stock, not for how the stock they recommend performs.

rpadula said:
Buzzword BINGO!!!

What do I win?
Click to expand...

Nothing. The correct term is "Buzzword BULL****!" :D

If you think the economists are bad, read a review done by a wine snob sometime.... :nono:
 
I try to understand the mechanics if the economy, really, I do try.
Click to expand...

Me too.
If I had 5 minutes with one of our favorite leaders (state, federal take your pick) I would start with, "Quit spending more than you have!"
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Me too.
If I had 5 minutes with one of our favorite leaders (state, federal take your pick) I would start with, "Quit spending more than you have!"
Click to expand...

I could easily respond that governments don't work that way. Ireland is a prime example. Right up to the 2008 election they were "the" model for Republicans. Then, after the shiat hit the fan for them too, they listened to the economists and went hard austerity. Take a look at their current status. Not very rosy, is it?

Their is a healthy middle ground that's neither Keynes or Friedman. Trouble is that no one wants to looks at that. The freshwater and saltwater economists have too much invested in their theories to compromise.
 
brcase said:
An Economy Professor I occasionally fly with told me that 21st Century Ecomonics is pretty much at the place where Medicine was in the 16th Century.

"Lets try some leach's, that ought to work"

"Lets pump a few billion into the banks, that ought to work"
Click to expand...

And yet he still has a job. Interesting, that. People want to believe the Voodoo Doctors. ;)
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Me too.
If I had 5 minutes with one of our favorite leaders (state, federal take your pick) I would start with, "Quit spending more than you have!"
Click to expand...

You mean, "Quit spending more than I already gave you, under threat of imprisonment."

FTFY.
 
JesseD said:
I could easily respond that governments don't work that way. Ireland is a prime example. Right up to the 2008 election they were "the" model for Republicans. Then, after the shiat hit the fan for them too, they listened to the economists and went hard austerity. Take a look at their current status. Not very rosy, is it?

Their is a healthy middle ground that's neither Keynes or Friedman. Trouble is that no one wants to looks at that. The freshwater and saltwater economists have too much invested in their theories to compromise.
Click to expand...

Weeeeeeeeeelllll, it's a little more complicated than that. Check out the property boom. Similarities to the US, for sure.
 
JesseD said:
I could easily respond that governments don't work that way. Ireland is a prime example. Right up to the 2008 election they were "the" model for Republicans. Then, after the shiat hit the fan for them too, they listened to the economists and went hard austerity. Take a look at their current status. Not very rosy, is it?

Their is a healthy middle ground that's neither Keynes or Friedman. Trouble is that no one wants to looks at that. The freshwater and saltwater economists have too much invested in their theories to compromise.
Click to expand...

There's more to it than that.

There's a very hard tradition of buying votes using public money - social programs, corporate welfare, earmarks. Politicians listen to economists and hear only what they want to hear.
 
My descriptions of the branches of econ thought. Off the top of my head, and I know I'm missing about 3/4's of the subfields.

Microeconomics: You're f*****
Macroeconomics: We're f*****
Behavioral Economics: You can f*** other people
Developmental Economics: F*** yourself while f****** someone else
Welfare Economics: Let's f*** with the data
Evolutionary Economics: You were f***** before you started
 
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