Did you catch it ?

RJM62 said:
This could be good news:

https://www.foxnews.com/science/man-made-antibody-neutralizes-coronavirus-first-time

The referenced paper is also interesting:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y.pdf

Rich
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Then again, there is this:
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/cor...-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds/2403374/
The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious, according to a new study published.
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RJM62 said:
Nonsense. Even suicidal people are wearing masks.

https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1257719497869402112

Some instincts are hard to override.

Rich
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Most of these people weren't.

90


https://www.latimes.com/california/...-of-raucous-protests-erupted-around-the-state
 
Definitely not all young, not distant, only one wearing a mask. If there's a survival instinct there, it sure ain't showing.

a.jpg


On my commute to my essential job I cross several small bridges over small streams. Not unusual at all to see 2-3 cars parked nearby and several people standing shoulder to shoulder at the railing with fishing poles in the water. The only way those people are going to stop doing that is to make it illegal and police it. Otherwise, you can take your requests and shove em' for all they care. They may get it, they may not. If they get it, they will spread it and some they spread it to will die. They could not care less.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Definitely not all young, not distant, only one wearing a mask. If there's a survival instinct there, it sure ain't showing.

a.jpg


On my commute to my essential job I cross several small bridges over small streams. Not unusual at all to see 2-3 cars parked nearby and several people standing shoulder to shoulder at the railing with fishing poles in the water. The only way those people are going to stop doing that is to make it illegal and police it. Otherwise, you can take your requests and shove em' for all they care. They may get it, they may not. If they get it, they will spread it and some they spread it to will die. They could not care less.
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RJM62 said:
Mainly young people. Either they'll acquire immunity, or they'll die. Either way, chalk one up for Darwin.

EDIT: Notice that the only old fart in the picture is wearing a mask.

Rich
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Palmpilot said:
Most of these people weren't.

90


https://www.latimes.com/california/...-of-raucous-protests-erupted-around-the-state
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Die ?
Please...this is not some ****ing Black Death with 80-85% lethality. With survival rates close to 100% for people under 60, this is entirely reasonable behavior - they know their chance of getting seriously sick , let alone dying, is close to 0 - that’s why they are out there.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Definitely not all young, not distant, only one wearing a mask. If there's a survival instinct there, it sure ain't showing.

a.jpg


On my commute to my essential job I cross several small bridges over small streams. Not unusual at all to see 2-3 cars parked nearby and several people standing shoulder to shoulder at the railing with fishing poles in the water. The only way those people are going to stop doing that is to make it illegal and police it. Otherwise, you can take your requests and shove em' for all they care. They may get it, they may not. If they get it, they will spread it and some they spread it to will die. They could not care less.
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Again, almost everyone can nearly eliminate their risk using simple precautions. Health-care workers and cops are probably the exceptions because they have no choice but to be in close contact with others. For the rest of us, protecting ourselves from this virus is a yawn.

Those who choose not to take simple steps to protect themselves are making a choice. Making it "law" will accomplish nothing other than making them lawbreakers, as well, while distracting police departments from more important work:

https://www.nycpba.org/press-releases/2020/social-distancing-enforcement/

If self-preservation is not enough to make folks act responsibly, then neither will the threat of a ticket do it.

One evident difference between your point of view and mine is that I don't consider it Big Brother's job to protect people from themselves. If they want to endanger their lives, so be it. I do the same thing when I fly ultralights that I maintain using parts from Tractor Supply and Rock Auto. People have the right to take risks, or not to. No one is trying to force anyone to do anything.

It's my job to protect myself, and I do. I don't need Big Brother doing it for me. Look what a great job government did protecting nursing home patients. That kind of help I don't need.

By the way, I'm also an "essential worker," which I find amusing. I could take a month off and most of my clients probably wouldn't notice. But I did cancel a few goodwill trips to visit important clients because I didn't think it worth the risk of flying commercial right now. If it were urgent, I'd go. But it's not. I think most sane people would make the same decision.

Rich
 
Warmi said:
Die ?
Please...this is not some ****ing Black Death with 80-85% lethality. With survival rates close to 100% for people under 60, this is entirely reasonable behavior - they know their chance of getting seriously sick , let alone dying, is close to 0 - that’s why they are out there.
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My statement is still correct. If they are exposed (which seems likely in a crowd like that), they will either develop immunity or die. The vast majority will develop immunity and do us all a favor in the process. A very few will die. Either way, Darwin wins.

Rich
 
RJM62 said:
My statement is still correct. If they are exposed (which seems likely in a crowd like that), they will either develop immunity or die. The vast majority will develop immunity and do us all a favor in the process. A very few will die. Either way, Darwin wins.

Rich
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That’s pretty stupid way of assessing risk since can be applied to everything - our flying is a sure win for Darwin as well because some of us will die ( and flying GA is probably riskier than being in that crowd) , and so will everyone who engages in any sort of activity.
Frankly, if you want to go that route, nobody will make out of here alive anyway ...
 
Warmi said:
That’s pretty stupid way of assessing risk since can be applied to everything - our flying is a sure win for Darwin as well because some of us will die ( and flying GA is probably riskier than being in that crowd) , and so will everyone who engages in any sort of activity.
Frankly, if you want to go that route, nobody will make out of here alive anyway ...
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Very true. It's the last item on all our agendas. So you take reasonable attempts to delay it as much as possible while still making life worth living.

Rich
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Definitely not all young, not distant, only one wearing a mask. If there's a survival instinct there, it sure ain't showing.

a.jpg


On my commute to my essential job I cross several small bridges over small streams. Not unusual at all to see 2-3 cars parked nearby and several people standing shoulder to shoulder at the railing with fishing poles in the water. The only way those people are going to stop doing that is to make it illegal and police it. Otherwise, you can take your requests and shove em' for all they care. They may get it, they may not. If they get it, they will spread it and some they spread it to will die. They could not care less.
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You should move to North Korea. They have the authority over citizens to make you happy.
 
If you want a chuckle, look up the photos of the cops arresting the hairdresser in Texas last week.

Then look up their backup standing outside.

Almost all older than anybody in any of the above protest photos. Only a couple using gloves. None wearing masks. ZFG basically.

Haven’t heard of any mass breakouts or casualties from the Dallas PD.

Similar photos from around here, not only cops, but the firefighters and standing in large mixed bunches at accident scenes.

Can understand one group or another, or even firefighters standing with those from the same firehouse and not caring, but mixing services and buildings and such.

AFAIK we’ve had ONE cop die here since it all started.

Something is not adding up. Not even a single department reporting a mass breakout. The county over one, the Sheriff said he couldn’t operate correctly if he lost seven to illness.

My theory: Something very different about outdoor infection rate versus being in close contact indoors for extended lengths of time. But even these folks do that, especially firefighters.

In other news here, just like our huge nursing home infection outbreaks and deaths, one of our prisons has it. Sterling, CO.

Nearly nothing in media after the initial report except that over 250 cases and 11 guards confirmed positive, and a death of only one 86 year old inmate after transport to a hospital.

Locking people in buildings seems to be a great way to infect everybody. Standing around outside in groups, far less. Still high like the much maligned Spring Breakers in FL and such, but not nearly what you get in shared housing.

Tech issue with uploading the cop photos or I’d just add em.
 
RJM62 said:
No one is trying to force anyone to do anything.
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That's the thing some people who want continued forced closings don't get.

Nobody is going to show up and force them out of their home, nobody is going to force a small business owner to reopen.

But they're certainly happy to send people with guns and badges to force others to stay in their homes, close their business, lose their life savings and everything they've built.

I don't feel protected, I feel robbed of freedom, even though I apparently don't frequent non-essential businesses since I've barely noticed a change in our lives.
 
Fiveslide said:
That's the thing some people who want continued forced closings don't get.

Nobody is going to show up and force them out of their home, nobody is going to force a small business owner to reopen.

But they're certainly happy to send people with guns and badges to force others to stay in their homes, close their business, lose their life savings and everything they've built.

I don't feel protected, I feel robbed of freedom, even though I apparently don't frequent non-essential businesses since I've barely noticed a change in our lives.
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It's really pretty bizarre. It's as if they want to make sure that everyone is as miserable as they are. I don't get it.

Rich
 
Palmpilot said:
SOUTH Korea is the one that beat their epidemic down!
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True. But they're an outlier. Their version of a National Stockpile is continuely funded as they prepare for war with North Korea every day. Their National Defence Act strips all citizens of their rights and allows direct govermental control of all industries which provided the means to enforce their directives, by force if necessary. So yes, South Korea "beat" their epidemic down.

My question is how did our stay at home orders change from protecting the overflow of the medical system to trying to protect everyone from SARS2? Considering around a million or so people die every year from some type of preventable cause, will the future intent be to protect them as well? For example, tobacco products cause over 400,000 deaths yearly. Are we going to ban those deadly products, like unmasked social interaction, to save those people also? Or are their deaths not as important as the SARS2 deaths?

With 80% of the SARS2 deaths in the 64+ yoa demographic, 92% if you start at 55, I think an age targeted approach is more in order. For those younger with a defined SARS2 comorbidity, they can join the older group at their descreation. Regardless, most people prior to the pandemic usually put their money before their health so why not let them make those same decisions again? And if that scares anybody in general then they can stay at home and be safe.
 
denverpilot said:
My theory: Something very different about outdoor infection rate versus being in close contact indoors for extended lengths of time. But even these folks do that, especially firefighters.

In other news here, just like our huge nursing home infection outbreaks and deaths, one of our prisons has it. Sterling, CO.

Nearly nothing in media after the initial report except that over 250 cases and 11 guards confirmed positive, and a death of only one 86 year old inmate after transport to a hospital.

Locking people in buildings seems to be a great way to infect everybody. Standing around outside in groups, far less. Still high like the much maligned Spring Breakers in FL and such, but not nearly what you get in shared housing.
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Not surprising in the least. Air circulation is, ahem, MUCH better outside as opposed to inside a building. Even if someone is infected and sneezes, your chances of ingesting enough virus to make you sick are probably much lower outside vs inside, unless they cough right in your space or they are directly upwind of you. It's why I laugh a bit at the GMC's refusal to do trail maintenance and telling people to stay off the trails because they might spread the virus to other hikers they meet or pass casually on the trail. Obviously we want to take precautions and avoid spreading the infection, but there are reasonable precautions and there is virus phobia, and I think a lot of people are way over that line. Wearing a mask when walking down a street in a small town, unless maybe going into an establishment, makes no sense to me. Someone today wrote on our Front Porch Forum that they were thankful to fellow hikers they ran into in the town forest because of their masks. Again, unless you're hiking in a group, virus phobia.

I wear a mask into every store I shop at, and once I put it on, it stays on until I get home and can take it off safely and wash it. But hiking? Or heaven forbid, flying? Yes, if I'm doing an instrument currency run with a safety pilot, probably. (Then comes the question, will ATC be able to understand me through a mask?)

Truly first world problems... <sigh>
 
azure said:
I wear a mask into every store I shop at, and once I put it on, it stays on until I get home and can take it off safely and wash it. But hiking? Or heaven forbid, flying? Yes, if I'm doing an instrument currency run with a safety pilot, probably. (Then comes the question, will ATC be able to understand me through a mask?)
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On my last flight, I wore an N95 mask because it was a rental plane. The side tone sounded clear to me, and ATC didn't have any apparent trouble understanding what I was saying.
 
Palmpilot said:
On my last flight, I wore an N95 mask because it was a rental plane. The side tone sounded clear to me, and ATC didn't have any apparent trouble understanding what I was saying.
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I am often amazed at what ATC can understand. We have a lot of flight schools around here that cater to foreign students. I can't understand a word they say but
ATC handles it without a "huh" (or "say again").
 
Palmpilot said:
On my last flight, I wore an N95 mask because it was a rental plane. The side tone sounded clear to me, and ATC didn't have any apparent trouble understanding what I was saying.
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Thanks. My mask, though, is pretty thick cloth, and cashiers in stores often have difficulty understanding me when I'm wearing it.

BTW, you really have an N95? Or did the FBO provide it? Either way, aren't those supposed to be reserved for health care providers and first responders?
 
Tarheelpilot said:
You should move to North Korea. They have the authority over citizens to make you happy.
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To clarify, I was NOT endorsing passing such laws. The claim made was get rid of the lockdowns and people will take it upon themselves to just take reasonable precautions on their own. I disagree with that statement and my comments were in the context of lots of people will not take said precautions unless you make law and threaten them with jail time and/or large fines. That is not the same as me saying I endorse or desire said laws. I do not.
 
azure said:
Thanks. My mask, though, is pretty thick cloth, and cashiers in stores often have difficulty understanding me when I'm wearing it.

BTW, you really have an N95? Or did the FBO provide it? Either way, aren't those supposed to be reserved for health care providers and first responders?
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I think it's a request rather than a requirement. It would be difficult for a politician to maintain what little credibility they have if they issued a mandate that members of the general public must wear masks -- as long as they're not the kind that are actually useful. That, I think, would cross some invisible line that separates run-of-the-mill political ******** from utter absurdity. But maybe not. Politicians never cease to amaze me in that regard.

My favorite doofuses (or would it be doofi?), however, are the people who wear painting-type N95 masks with outflow valves that make it easier to exhale. I find it hard to believe that they don't know that the valve defeats the purpose of wearing the mask, at least as far as protecting others is concerned.

I say nothing, though. In my opinion, the mask's main usefulness is as a reminder to maintain distance from people. Actual effectiveness at preventing infection is debatable at best, especially for the makeshift cloth masks and bandannas that most people use. But the mask is a handy reminder that there's either a pandemic going on, or you're about to be mugged; in either of which cases, maintaining distance is advisable.

Rich
 
Juliet Hotel said:
To clarify, I was NOT endorsing passing such laws. The claim made was get rid of the lockdowns and people will take it upon themselves to just take reasonable precautions on their own. I disagree with that statement and my comments were in the context of lots of people will not take said precautions unless you make law and threaten them with jail time and/or large fines. That is not the same as me saying I endorse or desire said laws. I do not.
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That’s good in my opinion. I don’t care if other people take precautions. They are free to make whatever decision they like regarding Covid exposure. I’ll do the same. Time for the government to step out of the way.
 
RJM62 said:
I say nothing, though. In my opinion, the mask's main usefulness is as a reminder to maintain distance from people.
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It’s also useful to remind you that you’ve been somewhere “contaminated” and to keep your finger out of your face, if you’re taking it off correctly and keeping it somewhere “contaminated” in your vehicle or when home, and decontaminating yourself at that location after removal.

The nurse here removes hers face side down to a specific spot on her dashboard in the sunlight (assuming sunlight helps break the little nasty down but knowing her windows block the really useful UV-C anyway) and it stays there. She then wipes down interior of vehicle and herself along with reaching outside and wiping the door handle she just used to get in.

Overkill and not 100% correct since she’s usually still in her work scrubs, but she at least has a routine. I also don’t get in her vehicle right now for much of anything. I backed it out the other night to swap vehicles around for a freak midnight hail storm and didn’t die. LOL.

She uses gloves on stuff like gas pumps and shopping carts and those go in trash before entering the vehicle. Of course.

But the mask as an indicator not to do something stupid to yourself is fairly useful if you’re a cross-contamination dummy in training. :)
 
denverpilot said:
It’s also useful to remind you that you’ve been somewhere “contaminated” and to keep your finger out of your face, if you’re taking it off correctly and keeping it somewhere “contaminated” in your vehicle or when home, and decontaminating yourself at that location after removal.

The nurse here removes hers face side down to a specific spot on her dashboard in the sunlight (assuming sunlight helps break the little nasty down but knowing her windows block the really useful UV-C anyway) and it stays there. She then wipes down interior of vehicle and herself along with reaching outside and wiping the door handle she just used to get in.

Overkill and not 100% correct since she’s usually still in her work scrubs, but she at least has a routine. I also don’t get in her vehicle right now for much of anything. I backed it out the other night to swap vehicles around for a freak midnight hail storm and didn’t die. LOL.

She uses gloves on stuff like gas pumps and shopping carts and those go in trash before entering the vehicle. Of course.

But the mask as an indicator not to do something stupid to yourself is fairly useful if you’re a cross-contamination dummy in training. :)
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I've had to explain to several friends that a mask can itself become a fomite. Other than in a health-care setting, it probably doesn't make much of a difference around here. Mask or no mask, social distancing is pretty much built in to rural life anyway. But in a more urban environment, wearing a cloth bandanna as a mask, tossing it on the passenger seat of the car between uses, and not washing it for weeks at a time, would increase a person's risk.

Around here, it's far less of an issue. But it's still notable that government demands a high level of compliance (the control part of the equation); but does nothing in terms of actually providing masks, and little in terms of educating people regarding what might be called "mask hygiene" -- the necessity of maintaining the mask itself in a sanitary manner.

Rich
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I don't have a political agenda. But I have also not seen data that definitively counts victims of the lockdown itself other than by pure speculation.
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Sort of going from one extreme to another here and really a false dichotomy. There are a number of studies that have look at this question and provided informed estimates, which is not the same as "pure speculation". For example, the number of excess cancer deaths in the UK and US was estimated this way. But I am curious how you "definitely count"? Would number of deaths over the number expected in a given week or month count, as has been done for total mortality here in the US? Or would that not be definitive enough?
 
Juliet Hotel said:
To clarify, I was NOT endorsing passing such laws. The claim made was get rid of the lockdowns and people will take it upon themselves to just take reasonable precautions on their own. I disagree with that statement and my comments were in the context of lots of people will not take said precautions unless you make law and threaten them with jail time and/or large fines. That is not the same as me saying I endorse or desire said laws. I do not.
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If you look at the flip side of the timeline, back at the beginning, the mobility data show that people were definitely reducing their mobility 1-2 weeks prior to the coercive lockdowns in most states. Now that may have been because they were scared by the news and following recommendations earlier. The mobility had been slowly drifting back up prior to the elimination of the lockdowns.

Graph below related to a paper, but for interest here in the meantime (mobility data derived from queries for driving directions to Apple Maps).

(Tongue in cheek) Looking at this again now, I realize that if you just want to argue on the basis of temporal correlation, you could try and make the argument that imposing the lockdowns caused people to start being less observant of social distancing. (Of course, that is unlikely to really be the explanation.)

MobVsLockdown.png
 
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It would be interesting to see how other behaviors would alter among the populace if mortality stats were blasted in people's faces 24/7 around driving, eating healthy, drinking, smoking, cancer, etc. I get it, the unknown here is that unlike a car accident this is contagious. But we see it with planes, flying is remarkably safe, but thanks to the media most people have a lot more fear getting in a plane than they do a car (not to say that Corona is more or less deadly than driving/flying, but illustrating that people have become hyper sensitive to corona as they have with flying.. even though there are many other things that may be more likely to kill them..)

My whole understanding of the original containment measures (masks, etc.,) was not because people are scared of dying, but because we didn't want to overwhelm the hospitals. It seems, that if we can keep hospital capacity at a reasonable level some measures can be made smarter

IE, rather than banning driving because it might kill you we require seatbelts, air bags, and not driving drunk. We let people fly, but have a strict set of FAA rules to keep it safe. This is the direction most places are going, re-opening, but with reasonable measures

I honestly don't understand why people are up in arms over the mask thing. I'm also not aware of anything in the Constitution or Bill of Rights that regulates what a person may or may not wear on their face, etc. I'd rather not wear a mask, but honestly, do I really want to breath in the effluent of the average populace?
 
PeterNSteinmetz said:
If you look at the flip side of the timeline, back at the beginning, the mobility data show that people were definitely reducing their mobility 1-2 weeks prior to the coercive lockdowns in most states. Now that may have been because they were scared by the news and following recommendations earlier. The mobility had been slowly drifting back up prior to the elimination of the lockdowns.

Graph below related to a paper, but for interest here in the meantime (mobility data derived from queries for driving directions to Apple Maps).

(Tongue in cheek) Looking at this again now, I realize that if you just want to argue on the basis of temporal correlation, you could try and make the argument that imposing the lockdowns caused people to start being less observant of social distancing. (Of course, that is unlikely to really be the explanation.)

MobVsLockdown.png
Click to expand...

You may find this interesting, Peter:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Taken together with the MIT study; and considered in the light of the NYC transit system's many connections to airports, long-distance buses, and regional and national railroads; this study lends even more support to my belief that New York's refusal to shut down the subways helped spread the pandemic throughout the whole country, not just New York.

Rich
 
Tantalum said:
My whole understanding of the original containment measures (masks, etc.,) was not because people are scared of dying, but because we didn't want to overwhelm the hospitals. It seems, that if we can keep hospital capacity at a reasonable level some measures can be made smarter
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Yes, people seem to forget the "flattening the curve" doesn't change the area under the curve. It just keeps from overwhelming the hospitals. Also, the original orders and publicity campaign were not based around people themselves being afraid of dying, but of bringing it home to vulnerable people.

But I think rules are being relaxed, if not formally, then informally. In the past week I have received calls from medical facilities asking if I wanted to schedule totally optional medical tests (eye follow-up, mammogram).

Tantalum said:
I honestly don't understand why people are up in arms over the mask thing. I'm also not aware of anything in the Constitution or Bill of Rights that regulates what a person may or may not wear on their face, etc. I'd rather not wear a mask, but honestly, do I really want to breath in the effluent of the average populace?
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This baffles me too. But there are some people who get upset when authority tells them what to do, no matter what it is.
 
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